Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/19/18

Jay Jaffe: Hello and welcome to the latest edition of my Thursday chat. I think I injured my shoulder patting myself on the back for predicting Bryan Price would get fired back in 2015, and every subsequent year since. But other than that, i’m doing well…

Wes: Given the expectations for the Reds this season, how bad of a manager do you have to be to get fired after 18 games? What else was going on in the clubhouse?

Jay Jaffe: As somebody who long ago failed to see the logic of continuing with Price, I’m clearly not the best expert to ask about his continued employment, but to me, any time you fire a manager this early, it’s an indictment of the decision makers above (unless there’s a specific, precipitating incident). Even 3-15 — if you’re a rebuilding team, you have a plan for the year or you don’t. And I’m not clear on what the Reds’ plan was here that necessitates a change now when it didn’t in October.

Joshua: What is your favorite IPA?

Jay Jaffe: Pliny the Elder and Heady Topper are the two favorites, but I’m lucky if I get to taste both in the same year given their scarcity around these parts of Brooklyn. My local go-to lately has been Threes Brewing’s Unreliable Narrator, a dank, tropical IPA that they release about every month or so and deliver to me by the case.

Slapshot: What are your thoughts on NEIPAs?  If you like them, do you have any particular favorites?

Jay Jaffe: I generally like the trend — they don’t maim my tongue if I’m having more than one the way some WC IPAs do — but a lot of the actual New England ones that really get people jazzed up are hard to come by here. Barrier Money is another local favorite, and any Singlecut IPA that has a fragment of rock lyrics (Soflty Sopken Magic Spells, Weird and Gilly, etc) is pretty high on my list.

Jon: Does this make Votto available?

Jay Jaffe: Who’s going to take on the ~$130 million he’s owed?

Schmoo: Got to say, Jay – you were delightful with Carson on FGAudio, looking forward to more regular appearances

Jay Jaffe: Thank you! That was a very relaxed podcast session, almost goofy (at least on my end). I don’t get to do these often because I don’t have the time to plan, record and engineer them myself, but I’m always willing to find time to be on one if somebody else is doing the heavy lifting.

Rock Kickass: Do you believe in Berrios or Snells breakout more?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve been on the Berrios bandwagon for a long time, in part because going back to the days when Brad Radke was wearing shot pants, I’ve written at least 273 articles about how the Twins never have any starters who can miss bats. And he can.

Rick: Half Acre in Chicago is quite possibly the best brewery in America…just sayin’.  Seasonal IPA varietals include Gone Away and Vallejo.  Lovely stuff.

Jay Jaffe: I have a nearby grocery store that gets me the good Half Acre stuff that nobody else in the neighborhood seems to know about. Gone Away makes regular appearances in the Jaffe-Span fridge, and Vallejo gets there too.

Coner: Toronto Blue Jays, Actually Good?

Jay Jaffe: I was surprised by their strong projection https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-talk-about-the-jays-promising-pro… but a closer look brought me around to the idea. The rotation has underperformed, though (4.72 ERA, 4.83 FIP), and that needs to right itself or there’s gonna be some heartache eventually.

Pope Ian : Do you prefer to use Fangraphs WAR or baseball-reference WAR?

Jay Jaffe: It depends. I do all my Hall stuff using B-Ref WAR because i think pitchers deserve more credit for run prevention than just the peripherals — particularly the further you go back, when strikeouts and homers were relatively rare. I’m not about to switch over with that stuff and suddenly make years worth of writing (including The Cooperstown Casebook) not jibe with my new Hall stuff.

I tend to prefer DRS to UZR, too. That said, I haven’t really chafed at having to use FG WAR here; i just tend to cite more numbers when i’m discussing pitchers in order to put their valuations in perspective. In short, they’re both good tools so long as you understand their limitations.

Sean: Best IPA’s – Heady Topper, Focal Banger, Other Half IPA lineup  especially All Green Everything. NJ has also had a IPA revolution with great IPA’s coming out of Carton, Magnify, Kane breweries.

Jay Jaffe: Love Other Half’s stuff and live within walking distance. That said, having a young child means a complete and total unwillingness to stand in a goddamn line for 2 hours to get their can releases. The marginal value of their beer vs. some of the other locals I listed isn’t worth the extra investment in time

Schmoo: How strictly do you follow the “stouts only in the winter” philosophy?

Jay Jaffe: Not at all. I’ll drink a stout in July if I’m in the mood, especially if it’s a rare one on a beer list. that said, I generally don’t go for the higher ABV ones, like the Russian Imperials, in the summer

Moltar: Why is the beer at citi field so dramatically better than at yankee stadium?

Jay Jaffe: The amenities and ballpark experience in general are far superior at Citi than Yankee Stadium. If I understand it correctly, the Yankees are very much in the pocket of AB InBev which means they’re prohibited from bringing in certain competitors’ beers. It’s a sore spot, because i have a partial season ticket package to the Yankees and have for 21 seasons now (first game tomorrow night, brrrr).

otis: Paul Goldschmidt’s wRC+, as of today: 161.

Jay Jaffe: Gotta write about those early season slumps when you can, and then take credit for the turnaround. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/paul-goldschmidt-and-small-sample-thea…

Right after I wrote about Longoria and McCutchen’s early struggles, they went out and combined for 5 hits with Longo homering. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/not-so-fresh-starts-in-san-francisco/ It’s apparently a gift I have. Or just regression.

Bort: Do we need to start a “Free Austin Barnes” movement? The guy isn’t getting anywhere near enough playing time.

Jay Jaffe: Yasmani Grandal and Chase Utley have both been swinging a hot bat to start the season, and that’s cut into Barnes’ opportunity during Justin Turner’s absence. That said, Utley’s played enough third base that using him some there instead of struggling Logan Forsythe, with Barnes getting more PT at 2B, might have helped the team’s offense in the early going.

Robbber: If Ohtani is pitching in an American league game and not in the batting lineup, could he be inserted as a pinch hitter?  Would he have to be removed as a pitcher?

Jay Jaffe: As I understand it, if he’s pitching, the only way he can hit is if the DH takes the field; Ohtani would bat in that spot.

So, hypothetically, if Ohtani is pitching and Albert Pujols is DHing and Jefrey Marte is playing 1B, telling Pujols to grab his glove in advance of a Marte at-bat would actually work, if you wanted Ohtani to bat there. I’m skeptical the Angels will try this anytime soon. Anybody who’s an authority on the rule book can correct me here.

Keefths: Whats up with LoMo ? He doesnt like the cold weather ?

Jay Jaffe: I’ll go with Didn’t Sign a Contract Until February 28. Between the physical and mental aspects of that late start, getting out of his well-established routines, I think that could lead to some early struggles.

BJOGC: Do people call you Jay or Jay Jaffe when they say your name? You have a “full name” sounding name

Jay Jaffe: I’ve had people in my life who used Jayjaffe as one word, often repeated multiple times, to get my attention. “jayjaffe jayjaffe jayjaffe, does this thing look infected?” What am I, a doctor?

Tom: Will we ever truly know the impact of a catcher? Much has been made, for instance, of Yadier Molina’s pitch calling and pitcher handling. Will we ever know his and other catcher’s impact on the game?

Jay Jaffe: I think we’re getting closer. I was very interested in the mixed-model stuff Max Marchi was doing at Baseball Prospectus before he got snapped up by the Indians and am surprised nobody’s taken up that baton with the same vigor that they did his retro-framing work.  https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/16096/the-stats-go-mar…

Justin: So this Judge fellow is Actually Very Good, huh?

Jay Jaffe: Quite, even if he’s not on pace to hit 50+ homers again. I think he’ll have his hot and cold spells like anyone else, but there’s nothing quite like having two healthy shoulders when you’re swinging a bat

Steven Matz: Am I still one of the most promising lefty starters in the game?

Jay Jaffe: In the sense of promises, promises, maybe.

Victor Robles: will I join The Bigs this year or the injury will delay?

Jay Jaffe: it sounds like that elbow injury is gonna delay things for a few months, at least. But if things go right I can see him helping the Nats in the second half or down the stretch. And if there’s a setback, they’ll have to work around it

LosDoyers: Can you please write more about Kenley Jansen’s struggles so that he rebounds? or does your magic only work for hitters

Jay Jaffe: Already did it once and he showed signs of turning it around. Can only go to the well so often.

Mentally, I try to keep track of the frequency with which I write about teams, both because I don’t want to concentrate too hard on just a few (something that alas was eventually mandated at SI.com) and because there are good ideas to be had if you take a closer look at players on teams that you haven’t paid attention to for awhile. I watch more Dodgers and Yankees than I do any other teams, and the Mets and Red Sox are probably next on the list of teams whose highs and lows catch my attention. Gotta escape that gravitational pull so I’ll let somebody else document the next Jansen turn.

MARTin: IS Braun worth keeping in a 12 man over Brantley?

Jay Jaffe: Obligatory weekly announcement: i haven’t played fantasy since 2011, so I’m not much help here. Follow your gut, or the numbers. Or both!

Jack: As a guy who feels like I’ve accrued at least a full day my lifetime just deleting needless emails concerning LinkedIn – I was VERY amused by the general tone in which you said, “Please don’t try to connect with me on LinkedIn” on the podcast with Cistulli.

Jay Jaffe: I’m always a bit alarmed when somebody wants to connect with me there. If it’s a friend of a friend or somebody I’ve met RT, sure. But why should I be seen as vouching for somebody whose work and character I have absolutely no idea about? And why the hell do I need to pay attention to one more channel when I’ve got email, twitter, facebook, slack, g-chat and iMessage in my life?

Baseball for $100, Alex: Please rank SS…  Simmons, Semien, Diaz

Jay Jaffe: I’d keep them in that order, actually.

James: Can Andrelton Simmons ride his glove to Cooperstown?

Jay Jaffe: Yes, I think he’s the rare shortstop who can, but it’s worth noting that he’s also vastly improved as a hitter over the past few seasons — not unlike Ozzie Smith. Combine a league-average offensive footprint with an elite glove at short and you’re gonna make tracks towards Cooperstown

Henry Rowengartner: Do you see much separation between McCullers and Verlander?  Health concerns aside 🙂

Jay Jaffe: There are huge differences stylistically – Verlander being a fastball/slider guy and McCullers relying on that curve more than 50% of the time. I like McCullers a lot but until he puts together a single 30-start season, comparing him to a guy who might wind up in the Hall of Fame isn’t a fair fight.

Sean: Buying a humbled, “in better shape” Joey Bats having a future in the MLB (at least in 2018)?

Jay Jaffe: **** the narrative that Bautista needs to be humbled, but I don’t see him able to help much anywhere besides DH, let alone 3B, a position he last played more than 10 games in a season at in… 2011

Wes: Please don’t be alarmed by my Untappd add. Asking you to vouch for beer is different than LinkedIn.

Jay Jaffe: Oh, I welcome the untappd follows (@jay_jaffe) even if I don’t communicate much there.

Shuck Bowalter: What’s your guess on an ETA for Gleyber Torres?

Jay Jaffe: Last week I said June, around the Super Two cutoff, but all the sudden Torres-watch around the Yankees seemed to ramp up (obviously, the beats read me and could immediately infer that the opposite was true). So now I’ll say early May.

Check back for next next week’s chat, which will probably be the day after he’ll have made his MLB debut!

NPC: Is there any reason for optimism w/r/t Matt Harvey?

Jay Jaffe: not especially. Velo is down again, swinging strike rate still in the single digits, batters are chasing him outside the zone with decreasing frequency… His FIP and ERA aren’t cringeworthy but the start-to-start trend isn’t good. I haven’t seen him much and right now i’m not sure I want to

Yo-Yo: It’s worth noting that Ozzie Smith’s HoF credentials are a bit lacking. I think Simmons would have to be AT LEAST as good as Ozzie to get in, and that means a dozen+ Gold Gloves. Personally, anyone who gets five or more legitimate GG’s gets a huge boost in my HoF rankings. Yadier Molina is a lock for me (and why isn’t Edmonds and Rolen already in the HoF? What a travesty). What do you think?

Jay Jaffe: Ozzie Smith’s credentials are not in the goddamn least lacking for the Hall of Fame. What in the actual… The man is 8th in JAWS despite having an 87 OPS+ because he was an outstanding baserunner in addition to being an elite defender. Go through the component-by-component comparison to Omar Vizquel here https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/12/06/omar-vizquel-hall-fame-ballot-2018

As for Molina, he’s going to be a polarizing candidate as I’ve said a dozen times. I’m disappointed that Edmonds fell off the ballot after the first go-round but Lofton, Beltran and Andruw are better candidates at the position, so it’s tough to say his result is a travesty. I’m very keen on Rolen and hope that the electorate comes around.

MKE Fan: When you think of Wisconsin beer, what do you think of?

Jay Jaffe: Jerry Lee Lewis’ song, “What’s Made Milwaukee Famous Has Made a Loser Out of Me.” And a lot of dreadful, watery beer that I generally try to avoid. The cheese, OTOH…

Victor: Your article on the integration of baseball was about those teams that integrated and the benefits they achieved on the field. That same night McCovey Chronicles game thread was filld with racist talk about Cueto’s hair(“it’s a door mat”, “does he wash it”, “I bet it gets itchy”). White MLB teams benefited, an industry was shut down(Negro League baseball), and now people of color are worshipped for their skills but are still misunderstood and mocked for being who they are which is Black and Latino. Where are the benefits again?

Jay Jaffe: The ability to hide behind relative anonymity online brings out the worst in people, and sports fans are no exception, sadly.

As for integration and the effect on the Negro Leagues, I think there’s a tendency to romanticize what was going on there — yes, the businesses were black-owned, but most of those players were living very rough lives and were probably underpaid. Lamenting the fall of separate-but-equal enterprises is not something i can do. The one thing I will say is that major league owners should have done a better job of compensating teams from whom they bought Negro Leagues playes; even Branch Rickey wasn’t so great about that.

But my God, if you don’t think the world is a better place for the integration off baseball, even if some immature idiots are chattering on the internet to the contrary, log off and seek help.

Willie Calhoun: What do you think of my odds of getting called up anytime soon?

Jay Jaffe: They’d be better if you were still a second baseman, but then you’d probably get injured like every other Rangers middle infielder has so far.

Pedro C: Are you worried about Tanaka?

Jay Jaffe: A bit, because I thought that his strong postseason suggested a light bulb had gone off in his head with his remixed repertoire (more sliders and splitters). I do wonder whether the cold weather has been a factor, but then he’s hardly alone in that as an explanation

Backend Starters??: Hey, I’m in a ten man points league. I’ve got a couple of pitchers on the waiver wire that I like but not sure if any of the guys I currently have are worth dropping for. Tyson Ross, Triggs and Heaney are on the wire, while I have Cobb, Boyd, Junis, Gibson and Stratton. Let me know if I should drop one of those guys for someone on the wire. Thanks

Jay Jaffe: I’ll let you know… next February. Don’t hold your breath. I’m not the fantasy guy here.

Brian Sabean’s goatee: Which HOF’er was the oldest when they made their MLB debut? thanks

Jay Jaffe: Satchel Paige was believed to be 42 when he debuted in MLB, but then he isn’t in for his major league performance. I think Hoyt Wilhelm is the oldest for MLB-only at 29 (he had lied about his age).

Sonny: Greetings from Providence! We miss you. What does Mauer need to do in the next 3y+ to ensure HOF?

Jay Jaffe: Hey Providence, I miss you! Was there last year for my 25th college reunion and I would go back every year if I could. A Joe Mauer who remains as productive as he was last year for a couple more would be a good thing for his Hall case, but as I said last week on the occasion of his 2,000th hit, I think he’s fully qualified already. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joe-mauer-and-the-rule-of-2000/

Mark: I live in Illinois, but spend a lot of time in Wisconsin, where there are dozens of small breweries making beer in as many styles and of every bit as high quality as any place else in the U.S. Obviously the stuff from Miller isn’t very good, but there’s a lot more to Wisconsin beer these days. Just FYI, love your chats.

Jay Jaffe: I’m sure there’s good craft beer in Wisconsin, but it’s not making its way to NY at a level that breaks through the local shelves, that at a time when local is particularly important again.  What are your favorite breweries from there?

Sean: Did the market undervalue Todd Frazier?

Jay Jaffe: Hell yes. This seems to be the winter 2017-2018 Hill I Am Most Likely To Die Upon, going back to one of my last pieces at SI.com https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/02/05/todd-frazier-mets-contract-mlb-hot-s…

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: What one statistic for pitchers and hitters would you choose from the back of a traditional baseball card to determine Hall of Fame eligibility? Thinking about wins and hits being so prevalent on voters’ minds (300/3000, respectively).

Jay Jaffe: depends on which era of cards we’re talking! The last Toppos ones I bought a couple years ago had WAR on the back.

I don’t think any stat on the back of a late-70s/early-80s card (the time I was actively involved in the hobby) would be sufficient as a HOF standalone determinant. If I could have times on base (hits + walks) and maybe pitcher strikeouts i could possibly get by.

Coz: New Glarus is far and away the best thing in Wisconsin.  They don’t sell or ship out of state though…

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, I’ve had New Glarus but not in awhile. Long, long ago, in a galaxy far, far away, I was married to a Wisconsin native and traveled there on an annual basis, but that hasn’t been the case in nearly a decade.

Uncle Rico: LUDES!

Jay Jaffe: I’m not holding, man.

Vegan Man!: Recently moved to Orlando, FL – know of any good sours down here? Thanks!

Jay Jaffe: I am not much on sours from any region. Have tried a handful but it’s not a style that really floats my boat. Sorry.

Rob Manfred: What trial balloon will I float out to avoid rainouts next year? And how would you address early-season scheduling?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve come around to the idea that MLB should go back to 154-game schedules. I’d mandate each team play a few doubleheaders to further prevent the season from extending into March or November.

Rob Manfred will probably explain that if players picked up the damn pace, they wouldn’t get so cold and wet.

james Schicker: Hi Jay …..admire your work.  Where do you stand on Keith Hernandez and HOF.  I believe given the era he had very good offense and he was the best defensive first baseman I have ever seen.  Anyway, think you know my opinion on his HOF candidacy …..what are yours?  Thx

Jay Jaffe: Hernandez is a bit short on JAWS, mainly on the career front due to his early exit (he’s 1.4 WAR below the 7-year peak). Given his historical importance. I think he’d be an OK Era Committee selection by the historic standards against those things are judged (High Pockets Kelly and Jim Bottomley wtf) but I’m not irate that he’s outside when guys like Grich and Whitaker can’t even get onto a ballot, and I’d put his former teammate Ted Simmons in first.

Tom: Ever try any St. Louis area craft beers? Schlafly, Urban Chestnut, and 4 Hands are all great.

Jay Jaffe: Schlafly yes. It’s fine. I doubt I had it at its freshest Might have had a 4 Hands somewhere, that rings a bell.

DocG16: Teheran or Porcello……Tanaka or Archer?

Jay Jaffe: Porcello and Archer, but i’m less confident in the first of those picks than the second.

eppler: pujols and prospects for votto

Jay Jaffe: The Angels have no prospects, and both of those guys can block the trade. Come on.

ssf: Can someone at FG write an article about Gallo’s 2018 season thus far? Lots of weird things going on with him

Jay Jaffe: i’ll see if that gets the writing juices flowing

Brian Sabean’s goatee: Also very much enjoyed The Casebook. I haven’t bothered to shelve it since I got it in December. Thanks for your great work.

Jay Jaffe: Thank you!

bob: What active pitchers would you bet on making the hall? Kershaw of course, but Scherzer, CC, Greinke? Felix or Sale? I don’t expect you to guess on young studs like Thor, etc

Jay Jaffe: Wrote about this in March https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/will-king-felix-reach-cooperstown/
the one I’m most keen on from that group besides Kershaw is Verlander. it’s far too early to consider any pitcher under 30, but another Chris Sale season like 2017 will mark him as a guy to keep an eye on in this context.

Justin: Your presence, along with Me Growley (had to) and Sheryl Ring, is a reason why I finally sacked up to become a member recently. (No offense to the departed, just a compliment to the newcomers) So keep doing you!

Jay Jaffe: Thank you!

Yo-Yo: I was wrong about Smith! I had no idea he was that proficient of a baserunner. 580 SB with an over 80% success rate is bonkers.

Jay Jaffe: Yup.

Ok, it’s time for me to wrap this up and get some food. Thanks for dropping by this week’s chat!