Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/11/26

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks!

Jay Jaffe: Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chats. In less than 24 hours, I’ll be en route to Salt Lake City with my family as we gather to celebrate my father’s 85th birthday.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece on Dalton Rushing’s UCL tear, his various controversies, and the state of the Dodgers’ catching depth chart in the pipeline. Yesterday, i wrote about Max Scherzer cracking the all-time top 10 in strikeouts as well as feats by Gerrit Cole and Jacob Misiorowski, with JAWS and ZiPS odds updates on both Cole and Saturday’s opposite number, Chris Sale https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-headlines-a-big-weekend-for-s…

Jay Jaffe: On Friday I looked at some precedents to the Adley Rutschman trade, where contenders brought in a new backstop via a midseason deal https://blogs.fangraphs.com/catching-lightning-in-a-bottle-a-history-o…

Jay Jaffe: And that’s where we are.

drplantwrench: which trade at the deadline do you think is most likely to be brought up in 5-10 years as That One Trade where it backfired and the prospect substantially overshadows the main piece?

Jay Jaffe: I’m probably not the best FG writer to ask about this but I’ll go with one from a deal that I wrote up: Alexander Frias, an 18-year-old 50-FV outfielder who was traded to the Cardinals in the deal that sent Dustin May and Jojo Romer to the Brewers https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-brewers-tap-their-farm-system-to-add-d…

Jay Jaffe: Eric Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski had recently described Frias as “a freak with crazy bat speed and physical projection, the guy on the list with the best shot to have a Junior Caminero type of rise.”

Jay Jaffe: I also wonder about Jefferson Rojas, a 21-year-old shortstop dealt to the Mets in the Clay Holmes trade https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cubs-pitching-staff-is-no-longer-held-…. Perhaps it will balance the cosmic scale as it pertains to the 2021 Pete Crow-Armstrong/Javier Báez deal?

Jay Jaffe: Don’t miss Eric and Brendan’s ranking of all the prospects traded at the deadline https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-mlb-prospects-traded-at-the-20…

souldougie: Do you have a favorite memory from your childhood of playing Little League/youth sports?

Jay Jaffe: I only played one season (my age-12 season) because I played rec soccer with all of my friends during my elementary school years. In our league championship game, I came up with the bases loaded in the 3rd or 4th inning and stroked a solid single up the middle, tying the game in a rally where we took the lead for good. I was replaced after that at-bat, and cried a little because it was over for me, but I’ll forever remember myself as coming through in the clutch.

Phillip Denny: Feels like the induction of Scott Rolen has opened the floodgates for the big 3 3B of the current era (JRam, Manny, Arenado) and potentially even Evan Longoria? Or does the David Wright of it all draw a line there?

Jay Jaffe: I’d argue that the floodgates began opening in 2018 with the induction of Chipper Jones. Prior to his induction, there were just 13 third basemen in the Hall, but after Jones came Edgar Martinez in 2019, Rolen in 2023, Adrian Beltré in 2024, and Dick Allen in 2025, running the total to 18.

You could actually argue the floodgates opened earlier. At the point when I began covering HOF elections in 2002, just 8 were in the Hall. Paul Molitor was part of the first class after I invented the metric that would become JAWS in 2004, then Wade Boggs (2005), Ron Santo (2011), and Deacon White (2013) preceded Chipper.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see Longoria or Wright getting in anytime soon, but I do think José Ramírez, Manny Machado, and Nolan Arenado will make it. I see Machado has restored his lead among those three after Ramírez overtook the other two earlier this season.

hayz11: Do you see any path for Logan Webb to have any real HOF chances? He’s 29 with 24 bWAR, and churns out 4 WAR seasons in his sleep. He lacks the real superstar peak, but if he continues to compile like this for a while, he’s could end up with some career totals that are better than you’d expect

Jay Jaffe: Don’t forget Webb was suspended for PEDs in 2019, when he was a prospect https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26647406/giants-pitching-prospect-…

Jay Jaffe: Webb may prove to have excellent staying power, but until one voting body or another elects somebody suspended for PEDs or at least appearing in the Mitchell Report, I’m not going to get optimistic about the ice being broken for Webb.

JoeG414: Congrats!   Do you think its “safe” to drop T.Scott (after last night) in a Saves only roto ?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t generally weigh in on fantasy questions, but Díaz has been shaky enough, and Scott impressive enough, that the possibility of a matchup-based co-closer possibility looms. You might at least want to give it a few more days to see if Díaz, who closed out last night’s game without a hitch, continues to gain momentum.

krob4385: Do you think Beltran takes the reins in Queens next year?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s more likely than not that he’s the next Mets manager. The team hasn’t played well enough under Andy Green (19-20) to keep his hat in the ring (not that he expected to remain at the helm), and who knows what the other options are. Beltán, as a current special assistant, would appear to have the inside track if he wants the job

Phil: James Tibbs, previously traded for May, looks good as well. May might end up a multitime bad-trade champion. (Yes, embittered Red Sox fan here.)

Jay Jaffe: In their pre-deadline Top 100 Prospects update, the Dodgers placed four outfielders on the list, and somehow Tibbs wasn’t one of them despite what’s now a .295/.417/.543 (143 wRC+) line at OkC. Eric and Brendan have him as just a 45-FV guy out of concern for his comparatively modest power, but we’ll see.

Phillip Denny: Nolan McLean having negative run value on breaking balls breaks my brain a little bit. Like I know RV isn’t sticky year over year, and so he could have the best breakers in the league in 2027, but the eye test (and stuff models) tell me that they’re so nasty.

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t get too wrapped up in individual pitch run values as the final word. PitchingBot loves McLean’s curve and slider (sweeper, according to Statcast), and Stuff+ loves the curve. it’s really all about how those pitches fit into an arsenal, complementing each other by creating deception and keeping hitters off balance.

Jay Jaffe: I’ll note that batters are slugging .550 against McLean’s sweeper despite averaging just 80.6 mph in  exit velocity (.370 xSLG), while they’re hitting .108 and slugging .145 against the curve. I’d chalk up any negative RV values as rather coincidental

hibbert: Despite recent theatrics in Boston, the Rays have their largest AL East lead of the season.  Looking to the playoffs, can their shallow lineup and weak bullpen hold up?  It’s a weird roster and kind of runs against their historical type.

Jay Jaffe: Man, I dunno. they’e always harder to evaluate because they seem to have so many moving parts. I am interested to see if they can fix Freddy Peralta and go into the postseason with a strong rotation.

dgriff: Seems like a significant overpay by the Red Sox for Rutschman compared to what the Yankees gave up for Garcia and Ramos.  Agree or no?  Which team, buyer or seller, do you think got the best bang for the buck at the deadline?

Jay Jaffe: I think the general consensus is that the Red Sox overpaid, but catcher was a clear need for them and they filled it with arguably the best position player dealt at the deadline and a guy whom they control for another year (my guess is they hammer out a juicy extension with him, but we’ll see). The Yankees did fine in getting Ramos and Garcia but neither is an ideal fit for the roster, and Brian Cashman did nothing about their terrible catching situation or their bullpen, at least besides appeasing the boo birds understandably tired of Doval and Jake Bird, two of last year’s deadline additions

sprechs: Reading Kevin Baker’s excellent “The New York Game,” and in it Carl Mays is referenced as feeling that he is only not in the hall because of what happened to Ray Chapman. Thoughts on him? He’s 109th per JAWS so seems like it is more lack of performance than ill-repute that has kept him out…

Jay Jaffe: There are contemporary pitchers with comparable or worse stats and accomplishments than Mays’ in the Hall, so it isn’t entirely performance-based, but not only does he have the notoriety of having thrown the pitch that killed Chapman but he’s generally regarded as one of the most disliked players of his time. From his SABR bio:

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: That’s from https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/Carl-Mays/ by Allan Wood.

Jay Jaffe: I can think of at least a dozen pitchers I’d put in the Hall before him, and that’s not counting those from the major Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball such as Dick Redding and John Donaldson

hayz11: Esmerlyn Valdez over the past 9 games is 1/25 with 17 Ks. Somehow in that time, his OBP has gone from .371 to… .371 because he’s also walked 13 times. Not really a question, just a very unusual stat line I wanted to point out!

Jay Jaffe: Wow, that is bizarre

Philip Christy: Would a salary cap actually help teams like the Brewers? They’re not all of a sudden going to sign a Tucker or a Yamamoto if the Dodgers aren’t able to. A salary cap just makes the top teams less competitive – and teams not trying as hard as they can to win is a bigger issue with the league.

Jay Jaffe: to borrow a quote from friend Craig Calcaterra, the main function of salary caps is to “save 30 of America’s biggest assholes some money.”

Jay Jaffe: A big chunk of the money from competitive balance tax violations helps to subsidize revenue-sharing receivers such as the Brewers. Take that away and the money has to be made up somewhere. The big thing at stake in the upcoming CBA negotiations is how to more equitably share local broadcasting revenues. The idea is for a team like the Brewers to come out a head in that, but whether the two sides can come up with a mechanism that satisfies the players remains to be seen — color me extremely skeptical it will wind up as a salary cap because the MLBPA is as dead-set against that as I am against eating American cheese.

Phillip Denny: What are your preferred expansion cities? Nashville seems like a given, so another out west seems appropriate. SLC? Portland?

Jay Jaffe: Even while knowing that the supposed financial benefits of expansion teams help drive local economies, I’m at least somewhat hopeful Salt Lake City gets a team, though my parents (85 and 84) may not be around long enough to see that come to pass. The region does make a ton of sense in terms of a ready ownership group, favorable demographics, and taxpayers’ willingness to fund a private ballpark, as opposed to, say, Portland, Oregon where there’s a lot more entrenched opposition.

Jay Jaffe: Wrote about all this in 2023, and of course events make some if it out of date but you can get an idea https://blogs.fangraphs.com/salt-lake-citys-bid-for-a-major-league-exp…

Jay Jaffe: I do think SLC does have the inside track on Portland for a western-half addition. Nashville seems to have more momentum than Charlotte or Raleigh or wherever in North Carolina is vying for a team. I don’t think there’s a strong enough ownership group or a will to build a ballpark in Montreal, for as much aesthetic and historic sense as that would make.

sprechs: Thank you – Baker does argue that Cannonball Dick should be in the hall, as well as Spottswood Poles…

Jay Jaffe: I’d like to read that book at some point. heard nothing but good things about it.

war2d2: Jay! I wish I had your Little League experience. I made the final out in the last playoff game I played in. My only LL highlights were being the only kid to hit homers over the deep wall in center in BP, and throwing two kids out at home from RF. My kid has had more highlights than I did (made a couple all-star teams, had a >75% gun-down rate as a catcher), but he also made the last out of the last playoff game. That’s my boy.

Jay Jaffe: Oh wow, that’s a weird coincidence regarding the final out, but hopefully your own experience helped him put it in perspective.

My daughter played t-ball and briefly coach-pitch from ages 4-6 (spring-fall-spring-fall-spring) and it was adorable. I was proud she knew the proper direction to run around the bases, and could absorb a basic checklist when stepping up to hit (feet in a straight line to the pitcher, right hand on top of left, eyes on the ball, etc.)

JU Jazz Hands: Oops again. I see quality of contact numbers referenced a lot. But have never seen anything about their predictability.  That seems important

Jay Jaffe: Those who have studied it such as Baseball Prospectus’ Russell Carleton tell us that 40 batted balls is where exit velocity starts to stabilize for hitters, with barrel rates around 50 and hard-hit rates maybe a bit more. I don’t recall what the numbers are for pitchers, though

bohs and os: Have you ever seen anything like the falloff Gunnar Henderson has experienced this year? He’s almost unplayable.

Jay Jaffe: Henderson’s 90 wRC+ and solid defense has still been good enough to be worth 2.0 WAR. His 30-point drop in wRC+ from last year is less than one-third that of Cal Raleigh (91 points, from 161 to 70). That dude has been borderline unplayable. Henderson barely cracks the top 30 in year-over-year wRC+ decline https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/season-stat-grid?position=B&seasonSt…

Jay Jaffe: George Springer, Aaron Judge, Corey Seager, Jarren Duran, the recently-released Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuña Jr…. those are just some of the guys with bigger offensive fall-offs.

feddy: This will sound like a joke, but is there a rule saying you have to have a catcher/a player in the catcher’s box? I was thinking the other day that there are scenarios where a team would benefit from having an extra fielder on the field without paying a heavy price by vacating the area behind the plate. Been too scared to say this to anyone in person because it sounds too insane

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, I’m no rules expert but Rule 5.02(a) mandates having the catcher behind the plate:

“The catcher shall station himself directly back of the plate. He may leave his position at any time to catch a pitch or make a play except that when the batter is being given an intentional base on balls, the catcher must stand with both feet within the lines of the catcher’s box until the ball leaves the pitcher’s hand.”

mike sixel: Portland does not have enough big companies to buy the suites. It’s isn’t happening. I worry about the dry up of the great salt lake and the ability of anyone to breathe there in fifteen years…

Jay Jaffe: You and me both on the Great Salt Lake, a scary proposition I noted in that 2023 piece

Phillip Denny: You think we’ll ever see x-stats start to incorporate spray angle into the formula in addition to launch angle and exit velo? I’m sure the tech to do so exists by now.

Jay Jaffe: As I always say with regards to Hall of Fame stuff, never is a long time, so I think at some point spray angle — a more precise version than pull-center-oppo — will make its way into the public domain and allow for more refined expected stats. But it ain’t happening today.

Jay Jaffe: ooh one more addendum:

hibbert: Re: Catcher positioning, when I coached a high school softball team I tried to move my right fielder behind the catcher when the winning run was on third in extra innings.  There’s a rule against that, too!

Jay Jaffe: Good to know!

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, I have a very long to-do list before i travel so i’m going to cut this off a bit earlier than usual. The piece on Dalton Rushing and the Dodgers’ catching situation is here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dalton-rushings-ucl-tear-catches-the-dodge…

Jay Jaffe: Thanks so much for stopping by. See you again soon!