Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/9/22

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another Friday chat!

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece up today about the Rays’ surge into the top AL Wild Card spot https://blogs.fangraphs.com/amid-a-slew-of-injuries-the-rays-have-surg…

Jay Jaffe: And yesterday I wrote about the Mets losing Max Scherzer and (briefly, for now) first place in the NL East https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mets-lose-scherzer-and-momentarily-their-n…

Jay Jaffe: Also, I bantered with Dan Szymborski about Ohtani, Judge, and the AL MVP race as well as Zac Gallen chasing Orel Hershiser’s scoreless streak on this week’s FanGraphs Audio https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-catching-coordinator-bobby…

Jay Jaffe: Bear with me for a moment as my lunch just arrived…

Guest: Thoughts on the new rule changes reported yesterday? I’ve wanted pitch clocks for awhile but actually looking at the rule there’s 50 different ways that the batter or the pitcher can break the rule. I’m worried it’s gonna feel ridiculous when the Sox lose to the Twins because Aaron Bummer forgot how many times he stepped off the rubber or whatever.

Jay Jaffe: Conceptually I’m in favor of a pitch clock, I’ve come around on the idea that it’s worth seeing what banning the shift would do, and the bigger bases are fine. However, there are some complexities to the rules changes that I honestly haven”t taken the time to digest yet. I know i’m supposed to have a blistering hot take here, but the stove ain’t lit yet

Erik: I get active enjoyment from the shift. Watching Manny Machado catch a ball in foul territory in right field makes me happier than a seeing-eye single ever will. Am I more in the minority than I thought?

Jay Jaffe: I get the appeal of seeing something so out-of-the-ordinary but feelings about the shift tend to correlate with whoever’s ox is being gored. Me, I’ve come around to the idea that the drop in league-wide batting average is a long-term problem; the disappearance of singles that move baserunners is a drain on the amount of action going on, and I think that’s what people feel is the biggest problem with the game

Curious Jorge: Does Longerhagen not do chats anymore?

Jay Jaffe: I won’t presume to speak for anyone else’s availability but when I’m overworked, overscheduled, and/or overtired, forgoing the chat is a first line of defense. I’m sure you all have prospect questions but most of them will probably still be relevant next week or whenever

HoF Question: Are the Cardinals the team with the most surefire HOFers on the roster with Pujols, Molina, Goldschmidt, and Arenado? Dodgers have Kersh, Betts, and maybe Freeman. The Mets have Mad Max, DeGrom, and Lindor. But I don’t think anyone else has 4.

Jay Jaffe: You’re stretching the definition of surefire there. I think probable is the more apt term for everybody you mention besides Pujols, Kershaw, and Scherzer, and I don’t see Lindor or deGrom as probable yet. Possible but not at the tipping point.

Jay Jaffe: But yes, I think the Cardinals have the most probable HOFers right now. Late last year it was the Dodgers who had 4 with Pujols and Scherzer

David: If they stay relatively healthy, it’s possible that Trout and Harper can ultimately combine for more than 200 WAR by the time they retire. Have there been other pairs of rookies who started their much-anticipated MLB careers at about the same time and combined for such a high level of production?

Jay Jaffe: Mickey Mantle debuted with the Yankees and Willie Mays with the Giants within a six-week span in 1951. I don’t think they were as highly anticipated by the general public because prospects weren’t as well publicized but I don’t think you’re going to find a higher-value pair whose debuts were as close

Pepe: How much more does DeGrom have to do to make the Hall of Fame (other than gain eligibility by throwing a pitch in his 10th season, which is 2023)? He seems like an interesting test case for “quality over quantity.”

Jay Jaffe: I wrote in early 2021 (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jacob-degrom-might-be-blazing-his-way-to-c…) about deGrom possibly being a Koufaxian exception, but since then he missed more than a full year. He really needs to stay healthy and probably add a third Cy Young award in order to punch his ticket. Without the hardware, he’s this generation’s Johan Santana, and we saw him get just 2.4% in 2018.

Joe: Thoughts on Judge and Pujols chances of reaching their milestones?

Jay Jaffe: I think the math is still against both but I hope Judge gets to 62 and Pujols to 700. Might check in on both soon

Jim: I know they’re still in first place (today) but I can’t shake the feeling that the Yankees are doomed to a first round flop, then god knows what next year. Are they doomed or am I just a Yankees fan?

Jay Jaffe: they look pretty bad right now but I’ve studied the matter over and over and there’s just not much correlation between September performance and October success. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinals-impressive-winning-streak-do…

Jay Jaffe: Now, if they weren’t getting Rizzo, LeMahieu, Severino, and possibly others back, and were sending this week’s horseshit lineups into the Division Series, I wouldn’t give them much of a chance to win the World Series, but that’s because those lineups aren’t representative of the work that got them to that stage.

Dan: Will we have roboumps next year?

Jay Jaffe: Not in the majors. 2024 is possible if things go well in the minors and with further testing but those aren’t guarantees.

mmddyyyy: How long would it take you to name every player in the Hall?

Jay Jaffe: Ha, i’ve never tried. I bet if you gave me a couple hours I could get very close because I wrote about all of them besides the Negro Leagues players for the Casebook

Pitch_Out: Did you hear the Katie Sharp stat that over the past month, Judge has had a 230 wRC+ and all other Yankees combined for a 54 wRC+ and were worth -0.5 WAR? Incredible. I think Ohtani is having a great season but context has to matter in the MVP race, right? Judge has strapped the Yankees to his back and is carrying them.

Jay Jaffe: Is Katie the one who came up with the split? I saw Bryan Hoch of MLB.com cite similar

Jay Jaffe: I wrote about the Ohtani/Judge race here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/shohei-ohtani-the-al-awards-races-and-unic…

Jay Jaffe: if context matters for Judge, it has to matter for Ohtani too, and here’s some context for you: in an AL/NL context, NOBODY IN THE PAST CENTURY HAS DONE WHAT HE’S DOING, EXCEPT SOME GUY NAMED OHTANI LAST YEAR.

Jay Jaffe: this is a unicorn race. Which unicorn you prefer is up to you.

Guest: how do you think front offices will adjust to the bigger bases? Is there going to be a significant shift towards building faster teams that steal more bases, or do you think the change isn’t big enough to cause a big philosophical change from the way things are right now?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think the bigger bases themselves will have a huge impact on base stealing but the pitch clock-related limitations on the number of throws will. And I think we’ll see some experimentation before anyone discovers how much this will really have an impact from a philosophical standpoint.

JK: Do you still have any hope for Jared Kelenic, above average major league player or has that ship sailed?

Jay Jaffe: he’s 23, so yes, I still have hope, but I think his ceiling is lower and that he might need an org change to reach it.

Sodo Mojo: Jay thank you for doing the chat given Mitch Hanigers recent form and injury history what should the Mariners do this off season?  Offer him a QA, Give him and incentive laden deal?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think he merits a qualifying offer but I do think he’s worth retaining given the aforementioned failure of Kelenic  as well as Kyle Lewis’ injury troubles. A multiyear deal with incentives and escalators seems like the way to go.

Did you know: Spencer Strider has the second best FIP amongst rookie pitchers with at least 120 IP in the modern era, behind only Dwight Gooden. And literally the best FIP- amongst rookie pitchers with the same IP minimum in the history if baseball.

Justin: At what point is it okay to get irrationally excited about the future of Michael Harris II?

Jay Jaffe: Strider and Harris have both been remarkable, helping to turn the Braves’ season around and making for quite the Rookie of the Year race. I’m more skeptical about whether Strider can continue to dominate with a two-pitch approach — it works great when he’s averaging 98 mph but it’s very tough to maintain that velocity for long as a starter, and what does the picture look like when he’s down to 96?

Harris is well above his Statcast expected numbers, and I worry about that 4.7% walk rate and 43% O-Swing rate, but he’s clearly a keeper, as the Braves obviously recognized via his extension.

mmddyyyy: When the number of teams changes, will there still be 1000 WAR/year?

Jay Jaffe: I’m pretty sure it will be scaled upwards. The 1000 WAR/year applies to the 30-team era, which has been in place since 1998, meaning that it’s been in place since WAR was invented, though it wasn’t until 2013 that bWAR and fWAR were unified to the same replacement level https://blogs.fangraphs.com/unifying-replacement-level/

Jay Jaffe: With 32 teams, 1000 WAR/3 scales up to 1066.7 WAR

mmddyyyy: Considering there are more All Star selections overall now, and the fact that every team gets one, is total all star teams made now worth less when considering the value of a career?

Jay Jaffe: All-Star appearances is a number that needs historical context at just about every turn. There was no All-Star Game before 1933. From 1933-60, there were just eight teams in each league so making the team was easier. From 1959-62 two All-Star Games were played each season, which spread the honor out a bit (and created some headaches for those of us more interested in counting All-Star seasons than All-Star Games played in). Expansion taking us from 16 to 30 teams reduces the likelihood of a player making the team to a greater degree than the slightly expanded rosters do to increase their chances

DC in STL: What to make of Dylan Carlson? Pretty disappointing year. Do you think he has a shot at being a multiple All Star, or is he going to be an average-ish player for his career? Jon Jay with more pop and less speed.

Jay Jaffe: Carlson’s offense has been a disappointment so far, but at the same time he’s shown that he’s an above-average center fielder, which wasn’t really the expectation two years ago (Eric called him “a situational center fielder” in his 2020 writeup). He’s still just 23 so I wouldn’t give up on him and I certainly don’t see the Cardinals doing so; on the contrary, they traded Harrison Bader

john maynor: who wins the excitingly mediocre AL Central? and do any of those three not get wiped immediately in the playoffs?

Jay Jaffe: Probably the Guardians but jeez, all three teams seem pretty mediocre; they’re all below .500 in terms of combined records against  the AL East and West, and only the White Sox are even .500 once  you fold interleague play into that.

Stats: Sorry, I accidentally hit send early.  comparing Jeter’s numbers to Altuve’s I see that Altuve’s are consistently stronger when adjusted to era. However, Jeter’s oWAR is much higher (even though their same age). Is this discrepancy from base running or is SS that much of a difference than 2B or both? Thank you

Jay Jaffe: Jeter has BIG advantages in baserunning and positional adjustments. https://stathead.com/tiny/Rls7A

Jay Jaffe:

Guest: Do you think the owners are going to regret going so extreme with the pitch clock when games are 45 minutes shorter and they realize they’ve blown 20% of their concessions revenue? (Plus for pitchers something like :18 would have been an easier transition and still 6 seconds quicker than the current avg.)

Jay Jaffe: not if it increases viewership and the value of their broadcast rights contracts.

TL Hopper: How can Taylor Walls simultanously be the best defensive SS, UZR, and the worst OAA/DRS?  fWAR and bWAR, one has him as pretty much the worst player in baseball, the other an average regular.

Jay Jaffe: Walls isn’t the best by UZR; his 12 DRS is tied for third among shortstops albeit in fewer innings than the other three guys tied or ahead. Mike Petriello took a look at his DRS/OAA discrepancy a bit today on Twitter [color: rgba(var(–sk_highlight,18,100,163),1);]

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Jay Jaffe: Oh, and speaking of Jeter, I spoke to Ken Davidoff about him for a piece here https://www.mlb.com/yankees/news/yankees-mag-more-than-enough. I’m sure that will change everybody’s minds about him 😉

Josh: What are you most looking forward to following over the next month? AL WC? NLE? Goldy triple crown? Dodgers 110+?

Jay Jaffe: Those are all fun, as is Judge’s HR pursuit, everything Ohtani does, the ROY races… man, we have a lot to enjoy.

Dick Allen is a Hall of Famer: Only 5 qualified hitters this year have as high a wRC+ as Mr. Allen averaged for his whole career.

Jay Jaffe: you’re preaching to the choir here.

Soros: Where do you come down on true compilers like Yadier Molina and the HOF? I’ve given up on fighting his candidacy, especially after the Baines fiasco but I’d love the Hall to have players that were actually like top 5 (or higher) players in the game at their peak.

Jay Jaffe: Even as somebody who’s been the low guy on Molina at times, I’d be hard-pressed to call him a compiler, and when you say “top-five” type players you’re implicitly telling me that you’re disregarding defense and want only heavy hitters whose numbers jump out at you. That Hall of Fame doesn’t exist except in your mind, and you’re certainly free to keep it there but it ain’t happening in Cooperstown.

Insert Witty Name Here: Does playing in NY make deGrom a slightly better bet than Johan on the ballot? I watched Johan in his prime, and deGrom is so much better.

Jay Jaffe: If you want to go buy what each player did in his first 1300-ish innings in MLB, deGrom has the advantages in ERA+ (159 to 141) and bWAR (41.5 to 35.8) https://stathead.com/baseball/player-comparison.cgi?request=1&sum=1&pl…

Jay Jaffe: However, within their careers, deGrom has topped 6.0 WAR just twice, where Santana topped 7.0 WAR four times. Santana had five seasons of 219 innings or more where deGrom’s high is 217.

Jay Jaffe: The usage patterns have changed, but both were/are remarkable. Santana probalby should have had a third Cy Young award, which might have changed the Hall conversation. Will deGrom, who’s already had one TJ, even last long enough to accumulate another ~720 innings and surpass Santana’s meager career total? I don’t think it’s a guarantee.

Dan: If you had a few million to spend on sports memorabilia what would you buy?

Jay Jaffe: Oh jeez. I’m not a huge memorabilia guy because I live in a New York City apartment and, after all, am a writer not a stock trader or somebody with that kind of disposable income. I’d have to think about that a bit, but maybe bats of Ruth, Mays, and Aaron, and something from the streaks of Fernando Valenzuela and Orel Hershiser would be where I’d start.

Erik: How excited are you for the “61 iS tHe ReAL rEcoRd” talk down the stretch?

Jay Jaffe: It’s as easy to flick away as a fly on a picnic plate

Jay Jaffe: 73 is the major league (and NL) record. Judge has a shot at the AL and franchise record. That’s plenty cool enough.

Jay Jaffe: it shouldn’t matter, but Judge did his best to deflect the silliness by noting that he regards Bonds as the record-holder. ““That’s the record. I watched him do it. I stayed up late watching him do it. That’s the record. No one can take that from him.”

Matt VW: With likeliest playoff participants in mind, which potential World Series matchup strikes you as the most intriguing / appealing?

Jay Jaffe: I want Dodgers-Yankees. That’s what made me a baseball fan in the first place and I’ve spent more time writing about and watching those two teams in my lifetime than any other.

Darryl Vanilla: Peak DeGrom or Peak Pedro?

Jay Jaffe: Peak Pedro. From 1997-2003, he had a 213 ERA+ in 1400 innings, which is more than deGrom has thrown in his entire major league career.

Pedro: Where do you come down on Dwight Evans’ omission from the Hall? Thanks

Jay Jaffe: I’m pro-Evans. Wrote about him for the 2020 ballot and think he’s got a shot sooner or later https://blogs.fangraphs.com/underappreciated-in-his-time-dwight-evans-…

Christian: I’m convinced Kelenic and Haggerty swapped bodies

Jay Jaffe: interesting theory.

Didace: “At what point is it okay to get irrationally excited about the future of Michael Harris II?” Atlanta fans – Victor Robles had a 3.6 WAR as a rookie in 2019. Just sayin’.

Jay Jaffe: But Robles never demonstrated this kind of offensive prowess. That 3.6-WAR season featured a 92 wRC+, where Harris is at 143.

Jay Jaffe: ok folks, lots of good questions still in the queue but I’ve gotta go. Heading up to Yankee Stadium to see Yanks-Rays with a friend tonight. Thanks for stopping by and I hope you all enjoy your weekends!

vr: to paraphrase ellen adair, ohtani is not a unicorn, he is a unicorn who also happens to be a phoenix

Jay Jaffe: good one! had to share