Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 2/11/14

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Stilllll getting the hang of this new CiL

9:06	Comment From jocephus provide content!

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I’m trying!

9:07	Comment From Dave Definitely read that as ‘still getting over this hangover’

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: On a Tuesday?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not Eno

9:07	Comment From Chad 12:06! Are you kidding man?!

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Oh no! Six lost minutes! If only I provided like 60 free minutes on the other end literally every week!

9:07	Comment From Jake 3 guys who’re gonna get moved in late July:

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Starting to think Jeff Samardzija could be one of them

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have two others but I’ve got Samadzija on the mind

9:08	Comment From Prich Ms sign Wolf and Miner… Should we just engrave their AL Champ trophy now?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Wolf + Miner sounds like a hipster brunch restaurant

9:09	Comment From Alexei Ramirez Once Jose Reyes and Elvis Andrus come off the board, is it possible that I’m potentially the next best available SS option for those in AL-only leagues?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Brad Miller!

9:09	Comment From Llewdor Does the day of the week matter when you work on the internet?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Work’s work. I don’t drink very much during the week.

9:10	Comment From Guest What is a 5 tool player to you? A guy with 5 above average tools? Five 60’s? Five 80’s?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I’d say five above-average

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Who the hell has five 80s?

9:11	Comment From Anon21 Assuming one has the money and vacation days to make it work, should one take the day off and brave unpleasant Milwaukee weather to watch one’s favorite team open on the road, given the unsavory possibility that said team might lose?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: How comfortable are you being around tens of thousands of people really excited to cheer for the team that’s trying to beat yours?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I hate being a fan on the road but if your options are limited, you take what you can get

9:12	Comment From Cason Jollette i want to go to leaderboards and sort by xHR/Fb and batted ball distance and xBABIP !!

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I want the snow on the streets to be melted

9:12	Comment From Gson AJ Burnett signs a ____ year contract with the ____________________ baseball team for $ ____ MM.

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: 1, Pirates, $12?

9:13	Comment From Bobby Any indication that Yan Gomes could perform above expectations?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: What are the expectations?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: He seems like an all-right defensive catcher with a projected 108 wRC+

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: The Fans are in agreement

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll perform above that if he hits to last year’s .342 BABIP

9:15	Comment From Chris Are the Mariners going after Santana? Seems like a lot of rumors indicating that yesterday.

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: (Ervin)

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: They’re involved. Like everybody else they’re waiting to see how low the price will drop. My understanding is their preference would be to trade for an SP

9:15	Comment From Prich If you are Jack Z, who are you willing offer to the Cubs for Samardzija?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Not enough for the Cubs to take it, based on the reports of their demands to date

9:16	Comment From Bobby What’s Fister’s ceiling this year?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: 5-win pitcher

9:16	Comment From Putin In your opinion, what are the top 3 rotations and top 3 bullpens in the NL?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Nationals/Dodgers/Cardinals

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Braves/Dodgers/…Reds? Pirates?

9:18	Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy do you think the projections are too down on Profar for 2014? he showed a pretty elite contact rate and seemed to mostly be the victim of a too-passive approach/letting a lot of called strikes by

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Steamer sees him as a little below average. ZiPS sees him as a little below average. Fans see him as a little above average, and Fans are always systematically optimistic

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: There’s obviously room for upside but if he had issues determining when to swing, why should that resolve itself right away?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: You’re suggesting he was a victim of his own skillset

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I think he has a reasonably high floor but something like a .310-.320 wOBA wouldn’t be surprising

9:21	Comment From Guest Your thoughts on the Michael Brantley extension… I need to know them.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Another non-elite young player giving up a bit of free agency. Demonstration of the value in reliable adequacy

9:22	Comment From Gila Monster Isn’t the problem with moving Samardjiza that the Cubs have absolutely no pitching in the system?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Well, that would be a problem if the Cubs were trying to win right away. But they’re in a position to accumulate value and plus they’d probably get some pitching back

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Samardzija isn’t a long-term piece for them. Unless they can re-sign him, in which case, he wouldn’t be traded

9:23	Comment From Gson James Paxton = Clayton Kershaw Lite or version 2… Agree with that assessment?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Not even a little bit

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, how lite are we talking here?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: He’s Erik Bedard with a better attitude

9:24	Comment From Chris How many plate appearances for Franklin as Mariner for 2014?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: 0 – 50

9:24	Comment From Josh Do you think Maholm/Beckett/Billingsley/Zach Lee/Haren make a viable enough back of the rotation for the Dodgers or will they have to go out and do the Nolasco thing again?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: They’re going to be fine. They should have enough SP depth, and there are other areas they could attempt to upgrade

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Kind of. They’re approaching the level of complete team, pending injury/underperformance

9:25	Comment From Jake Why are 5 tool players so prized if all it takes is 5 above average? That’s great and all, but it’s not the most valuable possibility in a prospect

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: They have tons of ways they can contribute so it’s relatively unlikely they’ll suck

9:26	Comment From Jarred Cosart You have said not one, but two nice things about me in the past. Do you think I can be better than a 1 WAR pitcher?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve said nice things about you?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I sure don’t think you’re very good

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Throw strikes pls

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Of course you can be better than a 1-WAR pitcher but that’s a super low threshold. I don’t love your future career

9:28	Comment From Gson Ubaldo Jimenez signs a ____ year contract with the __________________baseball team for $ ____ MM

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have actual insight here, but:

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: 3, Blue Jays, 40

9:29	Comment From Guest Any ideas on how to better compensate younger players while they are most productive and lower the contract value of older declining players?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Fundamentally change the MLBPA

9:30	Comment From john On the fangraphs projection page, I can select by team. Why can’t I filter by league?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Good question. I’ll ask!

9:30	Comment From Matt cain Will I resume my DIPS destruction in 2014?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe barely. But last year wasn’t an aberration. 2013: -0.1 FDP-Wins. 2011: -0.3 FDP-Wins.

9:31	Comment From Zach Ignoring the fact that he’s a Scott Boras client and that the Orioles don’t like spending money, what would the O’s have to spend on an extension for Chris Davis this spring?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Give me two minutes to run some math

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s try $185m/8yr

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Boy that sure sounds steep

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Boy you really have to believe in Davis’ 2013

9:35	Comment From Bobby Expectations are that Gomes avg. will take a big hit, though he does seem to hit the ball awfully hard, suggesting a regression in BABIP may not be as dramatic as the projections suggest.

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: He’s probably a .300-.310 BABIP player. Just because he might’ve hit the ball extra hard last season doesn’t make that a sustainable skill, and he is a catcher

9:36	Comment From Northsider Assuming the Cubs do trade Samadzija in July, Do you believe his 2014 performance will improve his trade value or lock him into the “overrated 3/4 with potential” persona?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I think the hope would be that his ERA would start to match his xFIP and then all of a sudden, bam, available ace at the deadline!

9:37	Comment From dbet Do you think Billy Hamilton is fast enough to make up for the lack of defense from the Mariners 1B playing outfield?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Billy Hamilton is fast enough to improve the Seattle Mariners, no

9:38	Comment From Jake How do so many players carry negative BsR? Isn’t a positive BsR as easy as conservative running+only stealing on passed balls?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Because roughly half of everyone has to be below average

9:38	Comment From zack Which Brave will suck less in 2014: Uggla or Upton?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll take Uggla!

9:39	Comment From Guest What insiders do you put the most faith in?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Rosenthal

9:39	Comment From Jays fan At this time last year what would the odds have been that the Jays season would turn into the unmitigated disaster that we, their fans, had to endure?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: 10-15%. There’s always a chance any given team will go through a nightmare!

9:40	Comment From _David_ Any thoughts on new Mariners Randy Wolf and Zach Minor?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Zach Miner wasn’t good at his best and Randy Wolf hasn’t had a 3-win season since 2002

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Veteran depth. Nothing but veteran depth

9:41	Comment From Guest I saw you for the first time on Clubhouse Confidential. You’re hot. call me.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Are you sure you’re not thinking about Brian Kenny?

9:41	Comment From jocephus i can’t believe kozma even made the numbers > fans list

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Cardinals fans might just hate Pete Kozma

9:41	Comment From SilentSnake Bigger impact 2014, Archie, Taijuan or Tanaka. Also, am I crazy for loving Pineda?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Tanaka obviously

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: And you’re not crazy. Anything’s possible for Pineda until/unless we find out surgery ate his velocity

9:42

Comment From AL
Yesterday Dave said that Jesus Montero has no trade value. I don’t think that many people would argue that, but if you are a fan of the Brewers why wouldn’t you try and trade a bag of balls for him, and roll the dice with him at 1st in a hitters park? He can’t be worse than what they put on the field last year, and at least he gives you some long-term value if he does anything, unlike Reynolds/Overbay?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: No reason for the Mariners to give him away now. Specifically because he has zero value they might as well let him try to hit in Tacoma

9:43	Comment From Dave Jeff, is there any way pretty please that we could get Zips’ career line (including counting stats) for Craig Kimbrel? Pretty pretty please?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: You’re a day late I’m afraid to ask that in a FG chat 🙁

9:44	Comment From Guest Teams that are “going for it” that probs shouldn’t be?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think anyone’s acting too irresponsibly

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: It would be one thing if, like, the DBacks had drained the system to trade for David Price

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: It’s weird that the Twins have spent so much on the rotation. But the bigger issue to me is that teams like the Orioles and Reds havent’ done anything despite being potentially competitive

9:46	Comment From zack If the Reds hadn’t signed Votto to that extension and he had made it to free agency this offseason, would have gotten less money? How much less?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: He’s a year younger than Cano and the last three years he’s been worth 0.7 WAR less, pretty much entirely because of the 2012 injury

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I could see something like $192m/8yr

9:49	Comment From ralph Do you frequent hipster brunch restaurants? Is it possible not to if you live in Portland?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I used to do it more but it turns out I also like cooking and saving money and not waiting in lines for an hour

9:50	Comment From Bobby Reasons for optimism with respect to Alex Gordon and/or Billy Butler?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Last year Gordon was a good player and two years ago Butler was a good player

9:51

Comment From Dave
Hey Jeff, thanks for the chat. I was reading one of Gladwell’s books a while back. He did an interesting study looking at the success of ‘older’ vs ‘younger’ players in a age-specific league (example, a 9 year 0 month old playing in the same league as a 9 year 11 month old), and found that players that were ‘older’ (for example, the 9 year 11 month old) were more likely to attain professional success. Can you guys at fangraphs perhaps create a study looking at the same concept, but for high school draftees? Is a player that is 18 years and 11 months old at draft time overvalued over a player that is 17 years and 9 months old? Who achieves more success? Thank you!

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe this would be something for the new THT

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Too research-intensive for regular routine FG content

9:52

Comment From west burnside
Would 35-year-old lefthander Wandy Rodriguez, who is owed a net $7.5 million on the final year of his contract, or five years of 26-year-old southpaw Jeff Locke, a 2013 NL All Star who bombed after the break, be a better target in a Seattle trade of three years of firstbaseman Justin Smoak? Or neither after the Marines signed Randy Wolf to a minor league contract?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: You definitely prefer Locke — surplus value! — but the Pirates shouldn’t give up Locke for Justin Smoak, who isn’t good

9:54

Comment From Gila Monster
If you were the Cubs, would you entertain the option of a Baez-lead trade for Giancarlo Stanton? Starlin Castro “should” bounce back to being a 3 WAR SS and he is locked up until 2020. The Cubs are one of the few teams with the talent and money to make a Stanton trade/extension happen

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I’d be willing to go that far

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I’m also open to being talked out of that, but I’m in love with Giancarlo Stanton and less in love with prospects with discipline concerns

9:57	Comment From j6takish With teams now properly valuing elite young talent, will we ever see another player passed over due to bonus demands? Will there ever be another Matt Bush/Justin Verlander type of move?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not a draft expert, but you are probably not going to see that. Some players will be passed over for slightly less expensive players but for the most part talent will win out, along with a signability factor

9:58

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
follow up on Profar: I wonder if there’d be a way to parse out young players who were very patient in the minors being “too passive” upon MLB debut. I am thinking Profar, Ackley, Hicks etc. I am wondering what the future held for other guys that came up and suffered what looks like inflated K rates vs. their contact rates. I feel like contact is the “truer” skill and deciding when to swing is easier than deciding to make more contact when one does.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Perhaps the contact rates are inflated by only swinging at pitches you feel comfortable swinging at

9:58	Comment From Guest If 1 WAR is worth $6 to $7 million. How much is -1 WAR worth

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: a few million in Japan

9:59	Comment From KJ Any thoughts on Tommy LaStella? seems to be buried on prospect lists, if on them at all. Really nice AA #s and Dan Uggla can’t exactly be hard to dethrone…