Kiley McDaniel Chat – 1/31/18 by Kiley McDaniel January 31, 2018 12:07 Kiley McDaniel: Kiley estoy aqui 12:07 Lurker: When will your top 100 drop? 12:07 Kiley McDaniel: Okay schedule is a good place to start here. Just recorded a podcast with Carson but it isn’t up yet so I guess I’ll break some news (?) that the top 100 drops Monday and there will be a whole week of top 100 related content. 12:08 Kiley McDaniel: The list is essentially done now, gonna lock it tonight, so I can talk in generalities about some players but don’t want to give too much away. 12:08 Kiley McDaniel: And since we’re blowing this out a bit and the Braves list is like 1/2 on the the top 100, that and the Yankees list got pushed back a bit but should both be coming soon after prospect week. 12:09 Kiley McDaniel: And sortable 2018/2019/2020 draft rankings drop the next Monday, so it’s a true 7-day week of rankings 12:09 Kiley McDaniel: We’ll see if you people can ask questions about some of the names that will probably surprise you to land on the top 100 12:10 Tommy N.: What is Luis Urias’ ceiling? 12:11 Kiley McDaniel: A guy me and Eric both like. You’re hoping for average power but probably get a little less than that. Good defender at 2B and plus contact skills, so if he can channel some of the Betts/Pedroia/Altuve stuff you’ve got a really good player, still a good player if he doesn’t and he’s close. 12:11 Phillip: Can’t get that player A vs B formatting to work… So.. Wentz or Riley Pint? (Player A was Wentz) 12:12 Kiley McDaniel: I saw them in back to back days this spring and was surprised that it’s pretty close now. They do it very different ways and the upside is obviously different but it’s not clear to me which one is better. Within 10 spots of each other on the current iteration of the 100. 12:12 Tawnda: Who will have the better offensive profile: Carter Keiboom or Yu Cheng-Chang? 12:14 Kiley McDaniel: Two guys that I think we are the high guys on. I’ll lean Kieboom as more of a traditional bat over power and both are average to above whereas Chang is comparable but more of a swing hard and lift the ball, has gotten to all of the performance his tools will allow type guy. Both will play up the middle but not clear either can stick at SS, but the bats will play. 12:14 Daron: On the 20/80 scale where does my question likely need to grade to make today’s chat? 12:14 Kiley McDaniel: Higher than that 12:14 10/10 Sandwich: e NOOOOOOOOO 🙁 12:15 Kiley McDaniel: Yes, a cloud is lingering over this chat with the loss of Eno. Freestyle a sandwich and pour out a craft brew for FG in this trying time. For Eno’s sake pour it out into your mouth. 12:16 shf: Scouting reports on Estevan Florial highlight a potentially monster bat but express skepticism re: his approach. That skepticism has pushed him to the bottom of most top-100 lists, if on the lists at all. What is the difference between Florial’s approach and other slugger prospects, such as Joey Gallo, who were consistently at the top of the lists despite their own monster K numbers? 12:18 Kiley McDaniel: He’s a guy that I think hits enough to make it since he’ll get to his power and has speed/defense but it’ll always be a low average type. He and Isan Diaz are examples Eric and I have been talking about in recent weeks of contact issues that are due more to bat control than pitch selection. Diaz and Florial have plus power and pick good pitches, they just will swing and miss through some of them, which is fine, you’re just gonna hit .240 or .250 and hit for power with some walks. Any kind of defensive value (avoid the Pedro Alvarez path) and you’ve got an interesting guy that fits in today’s game. 12:18 Show Hey O’Tawny: Outside of the big 3 of Guerrero, Bichette, and Alford, what other Blue Jays prospects do you recommend keeping an eye on? 12:18 Kiley McDaniel: Nate Pearson! 12:19 Phillip: Could the endless train of arms in the Braves’ system HARM them at the MLB level because they will be unwilling to sign/trade for an established pitcher because help will eternally be “on the way”? 12:21 Kiley McDaniel: This is potentially true, but behind Teheran, Folty and McCarthy, you need 2 guys. What are the odds that Newcomb, Gohara, Fried, Soroka and Allard are all not ready to do that? And that Anderson, Touki, Bryse Wilson don’t take a step forward and join that group? There’s enough options there that they’ll be fine. If it was just 4 arms for 3 spots, then sure you’d have something to worry about. 12:22 Dookie Howser, MD: Do you feel guilty for forcing Eno out in a power struggle? 12:22 Kiley McDaniel: This conspiracy theory has legs because Dookie Howser is a doctor AND he’s on the internet. How can you not buy it? 12:23 James: How bullish is Kiley on Brent Rooker’s bat? 12:24 Kiley McDaniel: Kiley was a little skeptical of it when Rooker was an amateur, but his debut was better than Kiley was expecting. Kiley thinks it’s still fringy bat, plus power, questionable defensive value but it’s something worth watching, not just some stiff 4A power guy 12:24 James Kaprielian: Health concerns aside, do I have the stuff to be a frontline starter? 12:24 Kiley McDaniel: Stuff yes, command maybe, health probably not 12:25 Joe: Is Leody Taveras going to be a GUY? What kind of hit tool and power does he have? 12:25 Kiley McDaniel: He can hit and the power is below average. Not enormous upside but he’s a guy 12:25 CW: Where do you stand on Danny Jansen? His 2017 was ridiculous in every way. 12:25 Kiley McDaniel: We really like Danny Jansen! Like more than you’re expecting us to like him! 12:26 Keil: Excluding Tucker and Whitley, what Astros prospect excites you the most? Who is a guy outside of their top 20 to keep an eye out for? 12:26 Kiley McDaniel: We like Yordan Alvarez! He’s a GUY 12:27 Colten: Do you foresee the Nats turning to OF Victor Robles before June? Is he the NL’s next best chance at ROY after Acuna? 12:28 Kiley McDaniel: Nope. Imagine he’s off limits unless it’s a multi year Chris Sale at an affordable price sort of piece. Maybe not even then 12:28 Kiley McDaniel: BRB the pupper needs a belly rub 12:29 Colby: Back before you made your jump to the show, we were both early bandwagoners on the Ozzie Albies train. I’ve taken a liking to Yasel Antuna. Similar player with more pop? 12:29 Kiley McDaniel: Not really alike 12:30 Slamboni: Which guy would you rather have long term: Estevan Florial, Jesus Sanchez or Monte Harrison? 12:30 Kiley McDaniel: Hmmm that’s a good one. Probably lean Sanchez right now but real case to take any of them. 12:30 Daron: Thoughts on Tristen Lutz? Does he possess some of the highest power potential among last year’s HS draftees? 12:30 Kiley McDaniel: YES HE DOES 12:30 Oliver: Seth Romero’s stuff looks legit. What kind of of SP can he be if his overcomes his makeup concerns? 12:31 Kiley McDaniel: Eh not sure one just overcomes that level of makeup concern, but the stuff is good and there’s three pitches and it’ll move fast in relief 12:32 Mike: Who has a better chance of sticking in a rotation long term – Yadier Alvarez or Adrian Morejon? 12:32 Kiley McDaniel: Morejon has better command/starter traits and three pitch mix, Alvarez has electric stuff that plays in relief or as a starter 12:33 bonnie: are you offended that your presence is enough for multiple fangraphs writers to abandon ship? 12:33 Kiley McDaniel: The popular theory now is I got hired and immediately began a power struggle, read about it on the internet! 12:34 Dominik: Aaron judge recently credited an internet hitting guru ( who is a controversial personality to say the least:)) for his breakout. It seems more and more guys seek help outside their orgs. Is private hitting and pitching coaches going to be the norm or will the orgs 12:35 Kiley McDaniel: As long as clubs employ hitting or pitching coaches with an inflexible approach to a changing game, this will happen and should happen, unfortunately. Some kids will have good coaches but not like hearing the truth and go seek a guy that will coddle them and that’s not good. Important distinction 12:35 Safety Stegosaurus: I can’t excited about prospects with boring last names like “Anderson” and “Smith”. Do you have any meaningless biases when it comes to player evaluation? 12:36 Kiley McDaniel: Nothing as silly as the NFL scouts talking about how a red headed QB has never won a title. I never thought Andy Dalton was a good QB but no 6th rounder that couldn’t consistently start had won multiple titles until someone did it. 12:36 Howdy: Is Eno becoming the head brewer for the Brewers? 12:36 Kiley McDaniel: wait is that job open 12:36 Phillip: True or False: Bryse Wilson is every bit the prospect Soroka, Franklin Perez, Sixto, and Allard are. 12:37 Kiley McDaniel: False! But he’s still pretty good and I bet he could beat up your favorite pitching prospect. 12:37 Rick Sanchez: I’m interested in your perspective on Soroka’s strikeout potential in the bigs. It seems lower than other fire ballers or pitchers with more premium stuff, but I suspect that might undersell his true talent. Is it too much to dream for a Michael Fulmer-results outcome? 12:38 Kiley McDaniel: Wouldn’t look to predict big K rates for him, look more for 200 innings and a sub 4 ERA without worrying too much about how he gets there 12:38 Carrie: Who is the most dominant player you’ve seen at any level? 12:40 Kiley McDaniel: Slightly different question, but the best one game performance I saw was probably Cameron Maybin in A-Ball. Had a game where he hit 2 homers, a double and single, stole a couple bags, threw out two runners and made a crazy diving catch. You could start a scouting report at first pitch and have it done by the 7th inning, he showed you everything he could do. 12:40 Alec Asher Wojciechowski: I would love to see you do an article on the draft from a team’s perspective: how much they know about who will be available in what round and bonus demands, as well as how they go about organizing their board, and how their philosophies change as the draft progresses. 12:40 Kiley McDaniel: That would be fun but don’t think any team would want me being that specific, naming names, talking about the negotiations with players they didn’t pick, etc. 12:41 Miguel : have we seen every type of pitch there is 12:41 Kiley McDaniel: This is a question better suited for En—-oh wait. Um. Yes, lets just say yes. 12:41 John: Which Angel’s pitcher do you want on your team: Rodriguez or Barria? 12:41 Kiley McDaniel: C-Rod 12:41 Dan. : Could we be talking about Vilade next year the way we talk about Bo now, in that “how did he get to the second round” kinda way? 12:42 Kiley McDaniel: Very possible. I’m in. 12:42 Mike: Is there any chance you will be on a fangraphs podcast with anyone other than Carson? 12:42 Kiley McDaniel: There is a chance 12:42 Jebby: can you list the top 100 players, in order, generally please? 12:42 Kiley McDaniel: No, generally 12:43 Craiggers: You take general baseball questions too, right? What do you think about Hosmer to the Royals or Padres? 12:44 Kiley McDaniel: Doesn’t really seem like it helps either of their long-term plans, I think both teams just really like him as a player and have some free money. Seems too early for SD and too late for KC. 12:44 Rocky: Why is Willie Calhoun your number 1 prospect? 12:44 Kiley McDaniel: #1 in my heart and on my slow pitch softball prospect list 12:45 Derek Falvey: I’m planning on going to spring training this year and watch some backfield games. Which Twins prospect should I watch? 12:45 Kiley McDaniel: I feel like I should be asking you this. But I would recommend BRUSDAR. 12:46 Clay Achin’: how is it possible that Sporer is like 6’5″ and weighs negative pounds??? 12:46 Kiley McDaniel: At the FG retreat I will finally get him to fill out that frame 12:46 RaysfaninMinnesota: Is there a better name for an offensive hitting prospect than Keiboom? 12:47 Kiley McDaniel: I’d probably pick something like Blammo but it’s a short list 12:47 Krakatoa : If a guy could reliably put up exactly 1 WAR every year, would that consistency mean he’d eventually get paid like a 2 WAR guy? 12:48 Kiley McDaniel: Nope b/c 1 WAR is a backup and 2 WAR is a starter and that’s a big difference 12:48 Kiley McDaniel: And once he’s 27, everyone would assume he’d get worse anyway 12:48 John: Dodgers catcher of the future: Austin Barnes, Keibert Ruiz, or Will Smith? 12:48 Kiley McDaniel: I have an answer to this and it isn’t the guy you think it is. More on Monday! 12:49 Nurd : Who is the nicest prospect you’ve ever met 12:49 Kiley McDaniel: Met a couple that fit this description–almost too nice in real life then turns into a maniac on the field–but the one that comes to mind is Mark Melancon. Scratch golfer too 12:50 Kiley McDaniel: I am not a scratch golfer so I lost that matchup 12:50 Jay: Gabriel Arias: future star and/or SURPRISE TOP 100 MEMBER? 12:50 Kiley McDaniel: Maybe and no but nice try! 12:50 Jonathan: Yankees teaser question: how close did Luis Medina come to making the Top 100 for you guys? 12:51 Kiley McDaniel: Not that close but interesting dude with a chance to shoot up the rankings. I actually saw him hit 96 mph when he was 15 years old and almost killed multiple batters so I’ve been researching this chat question for awhile very glad to wrap this one up 12:52 Bort: Eric prefers Yordan Alvarez to Ryan McMahon. Where are you at on that? 12:52 Kiley McDaniel: Same 12:52 Colin: Over or Under .5 home runs for Christian Pache this year? 12:52 Kiley McDaniel: Very over 12:52 Dan : Will you and Eric put out separate Top 100s or will be a collabo? 12:52 Kiley McDaniel: Collabo with some behind the scenes articles about how we did it 12:52 Kiley McDaniel: Maybe a 30 for 30 about it who knows 12:52 Alex: Any thoughts on Bryse Wilson? I know he had a big year at Rome, but do you think he can remain a SP in the big leagues? 12:53 Kiley McDaniel: He can but he may be a guy that just fits better in multi-inning relief when his stuff can tick up 12:53 Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Everyone loves top 100 lists, but would they not be more useful if they were just “here’s everyone with a 50 FV or higher sorted by ABC order within a tier”? So then we understand that Christian Arroyo is still a useful, unremarkable player instead of having fallen off the face of the earth, and stop attacking you for ranking [guy at 92] over [my team’s guy at 95] when CLEARLY it is the other way around. 12:54 Kiley McDaniel: We tend to agree. We noticed a dropoff around 40-45 on our list to where guys kinds ran together but I don’t think people get excited for an offseason top 50 so we went a little deeper. Ranking 200 or 300 seems silly since the precision at the lower spots is very low. 12:54 Kai: Thoughts on the Twins? 12:55 Kiley McDaniel: I still occasionally finish lists of things I like with [pause] AND TWINS 12:55 Clay Achin’: what do you make of Anthopoulos so far 12:55 Kiley McDaniel: I still am not positive how to spell his name but I’m getting better at it 12:56 Clay Achin’: next impact catcher prospect to wash up on the shores on the MLB? 12:57 Kiley McDaniel: does this mean the catcher died at sea? 12:57 William: Might be giving away too much – Does proximity factor in to separating Buehler, Keller, Whitley at all? 12:57 Kiley McDaniel: That’s a factor we consider but those guys are all basically ready or less than a season from being there so not a factor to separate those three 12:58 Tom: I am wondering if Cristian Pache’s upside gets him on the Top 100 or if he still has to continue to prove he can hit before he makes that jump. 12:58 Kiley McDaniel: Let me ask you this, everyone still reading 12:58 Kiley McDaniel: And you can answer in the comment 12:59 Kiley McDaniel: If Kevin Pillar was a prospect and you KNEW he would be Kevin Pillar, whereas all the other prospects are the same unknowns, where would you rank no risk Kevin Pillar in a top 100? 12:59 Kiley McDaniel: And that’s the 6 controlled MLB years of Pillar, we don’t care about what he does when he’s 33 or whatever 12:59 Rod: Does Kiley love Austin Riley? 1:00 Kiley McDaniel: I’d like to know if Austin loves me back first I don’t want to get hurt again 1:00 capconstrained: Size of Front Office question: I read somewhere that the typical MLB analytics dept has 4-6 analysts in addition to several data architects. Does that sound right and do you know Industry standards for Scouting and Development as well? 1:00 Kiley McDaniel: Something like that. Obviously some more like 1-2 and some more 6-10 1:01 Barracuda : Why do we talk about floor when we’ve seen time and time again that every guy’s floor is “very bad player”? 1:02 Kiley McDaniel: Something me and Eric would like to improve upon in the discourse. So many examples out there of every guy’s floor being 20 and ceiling being 80. In the same way that contact concerns can be like 12 different things so be more specific. Or hey we looked at our old prospect lists and we tend to do x too much. Well funny about that let’s keep doing it! Nah, we’d prefer to improve. 1:02 Kang: Can Brandon Mckay do both pitcher and hitter in mlb? 1:03 Kiley McDaniel: Yep, but I wonder what the actual usage will be–probably something like DH/1B mix and once a week 1-2 inning reliever? Maybe #3 starter and DH on off days? He’s a top 100 prospect both ways so that isn’t settled yet. 1:04 Rickey Henderson: What’s with the we and third person talk? You tryin to be Rickey? 1:04 Kiley McDaniel: Kiley would love to only talk about Kiley all day but when it comes to prospect coverage Kiley works with Eric and when you combine both of us I can’t just call us Kiley, as much as Kiley would like to keep saying Kiley. 1:05 Jordan : How would you grade your pupper on the five tools (SIT, STAY, SPEAK, RUN, DON’T PEE IN THE HOUSE) 1:06 Kiley McDaniel: 65, 60, 30, 70, 45 but improving 1:06 Kiley McDaniel: You forgot CUDDLES that’s another key tool and she’s an 80 1:06 Bryan: Is this exclusively a prospect chat? I thought the intro suggested asking you about “all of baseball?” 1:07 Kiley McDaniel: It’s a baseball chat that tends to get prospect questions but I’m open to whatever. It’s kinda prospect season right now so it seems most relevant until the teams sign the players, y’know 1:07 Rickey Henderson: Are their any other real big time prospects in Japan right now? 1:08 Kiley McDaniel: Scott Mathieson and Dennis Sarfate are both relievers that have really improved over there. Miles Mikolas is another guy that went over there and improved then just came back and got paid. A couple younger Japanese SP that have some upside. Not any huge names that you need to worry about. 1:08 Kang: How’s about 2018 draft class? I think Will Banfield will be next Mauer and Posey. 1:10 Kiley McDaniel: I think you are wrong, but you are free to feel that way. Probably best HS catcher though. Joey Bart at GT and Banfield are only catchers in the top 60 for us right now, but still massaging that list. TONS of good college catching in 2019: Langliers at Baylor, Rutchman at Oregon State, Debo at NC State some other solid guys behind them. 1:10 Show Hey O’Tawny: Interrupting a chat to rub your dog’s belly is a very respectable move 1:11 Kiley McDaniel: Gotta keep my office mate happy 1:11 Scott: You’re picking near the end of the first round in June. Baker, Bohm, and Beer are all on the board. Who do you take? Or do you take none of them? 1:12 Kiley McDaniel: I’d flip Baker and Bohm in that order. Triston Casas, prep 1B in Miami with 70 or 80 raw power is a similar but for me superior verison of all three. 1:13 Babe Lincoln: Any bold calls (somewhat against industry consensus) you’ve made on a prospect that turne dout to be right? On who? 1:13 Kiley McDaniel: Been wrong plenty but getting Albies in a top 100 out of short season ball seems to be my notable out on a limb pick 1:13 Show Hey O’Tawny: Best Canadian prospect: Cal Quantrill or Mike Soroka? 1:13 Kiley McDaniel: Soroka. Quantrill has lost some enthusiasm in the industry in the last year. 1:14 Tom: Favorite MiLB park? 1:15 Kiley McDaniel: Lots of good ones. Montgomery is a solid downtown situation with Dreamland next door. Clearwater is fun experience especially on all you can eat night. Nashville’s new digs are pretty sweet. Charleston is a fun spot. Haven’t been everywhere but I think most people give those solid marks. Heard Pensacola has a nice Gulf view 1:15 Kiley McDaniel: Birmingham’s is very nice too. Dreamland in the press box spread was a very nice touch 1:15 Kiley McDaniel: Also like Greenville SC. Mostly been around SEC country as you can see. 1:16 Uncle Rico: Does Bukauskas make an appearance in Houston this year for more than a cup of coffee? 1:16 Kiley McDaniel: Wouldn’t shock me if he came up to be the next McCullers/Gregerson to just throw 15 sliders to get out of a jam. 1:17 Kang: I think Acuna and Guerrero jr are overestimated. What’s your thought? 1:17 Kiley McDaniel: LOL NO 1:17 Billy Beane: What kind of dog do you have? And what’s the scouting consensus on him/her? 1:18 Kiley McDaniel: Lab/Golden mix, her, named Scout. Her weakness is she’s so nice and sociable that our walks around downtown end up taking a lot longer than they should 1:18 John: Hmmm Connor Wong perhaps?? 1:18 Kiley McDaniel: Underrated but not top 100 1:19 The Ghost of Wade Boggs: Is it bad that the only real reason I want to see Wander Javier make the majors is for the WanderTwin powers jokes? 1:20 Kiley McDaniel: Things are starting to get weird in the chat queue I think it’s time to go. See you people next week!