Kiley McDaniel Chat – 5/1/19 by Kiley McDaniel May 1, 2019 12:06 Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! I’m living in a writer’s personal hell today as there’s 8 people installing a new roof and they’re all banging as hard as they can for going on 5 hours now. Scout is slowly adapting to being in the climactic scene of a Matrix movie but is still sitting next to me in case something goes down. 12:08 Kiley McDaniel: We’re getting into the stretch run for the draft and ___ guy won’t get to pick ___ is getting a little more concrete. The draft rankings for every class (https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1…) are getting updated daily and here’s last week’s mock for those interested in such things (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-1-0-the-top-ten/). And lastly, here’s your draft order/pools (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-mlb-draft-signing-bonus-pool-and-pick…). 12:16 Kiley McDaniel: My tentative weekend game plans look doomed by weather, so I may stay local this weekend around SEC country. I’ll go get at least one of the two games CJ Abrams is playing Thursday and next week will likely be making a run in North Carolina. After that I should be able to get the Luis Robert/Cristian Pache/Drew Waters series in Birmingham. 12:17 Kiley McDaniel: Sorry, had to step away to deal with the source of that noise 12:17 Kiley McDaniel: to your questions! 12:17 A big dumb idiot: See my username, but is there any changes to one’s opinion of Cavan Biggio with him demolishing AAA? 12:17 Kiley McDaniel: Eric just saw that club and didn’t think anything had changed materially on Biggio 12:20 Greg: Austin Riley’s struck out 29.3% of the time in 324 PAs in Triple A last year. So far in 103 PAs, that’s down to 21.4%. Is that sample size substantial enough to be taken seriously? Also, have you heard anything about his performance? 12:20 Kiley McDaniel: I got one game where he went off, but from asking around it sounds like he’s done a better job staying shorter to the ball than he has in the past 12:20 Jack: when’s the next mock draft? 12:21 Kiley McDaniel: When the info is fresh enough that we need a new take on it. Sounds like 1-3 will be projected the same until draft time and I don’t have much more clarity on 4-10 right now, some stuff 11 and beyond 12:21 Brady: Do you think the tigers pick in the draft comes down to JJ Bleday & Riley Greene?? 12:21 Kiley McDaniel: I think those may be the two guys they are highest on that are also on the board, unless Miami takes Bleday at 4 12:21 Josh Nelson: Nick Lodolo has hit a rough patch in his last 3 starts (17 IP, 8 ER, 12 K to 4 BB). Is there a concern here, and does it open the possibility of Alek Manoah being draft before Lodolo? 12:22 Kiley McDaniel: Zack Thompson at Kentucky has been good lately, Manoah has been solid and Lodolo hasn’t been so good. Thompson’s elbow issues likely keep him from going first of that group, but he could be a Kyle Freeland issue where he goes where he belongs on talent and just signs for below slot. 12:23 Jim: I saw you recently post about Hunter Barco. Where do you see Hunter Barco’s ceiling in draft? 12:24 Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like he’s in that Joey Wentz area roughly speaking, where he could go for around slot in the 15-25 area or overslot in the comp round. 12:24 Crime Dog: LSU’s Josh Smith seems to be in the mold of a lot of the Rays recent MIF picks. Any chance he can stay at SS or is he 2B all the way? 12:24 Kiley McDaniel: Some think SS, feels like 2B/3B is more likely but yes that is exactly the type TB targets. 12:27 el Guapo: Any chance you guys could add an age filter on the MiLB leaderboard? Same way you filter the levels. It seems there is a big difference between a 110 wrc+ at AA from a 25 year old and a 20 year old. 12:27 Kiley McDaniel: I’ll pass this along to Sean 12:27 CASHMONEY: Deivi Garcia is 19 and in double A, lot of walks but the strikeout rate is absurd. Do you think he can hold up as a starter or the Yanks put him in the bullpen and he becomes a mini Betances in the bullpen? 12:27 Kiley McDaniel: The common opinion is it’s a 150-180 IP starter at best, maybe more like a McCullers/Rich Hill, but definitely a useful big leaguer 12:29 Jennifer : Loved your top 10 mock! Who would be your pick for the Blue Jays in that scenario? 12:30 Kiley McDaniel: Don’t have a ton of dope on their preferences there, but the leading candidates would be the four referenced in the article (Jung, Busch, Carroll, Thompson) as top 10 candidates that didn’t make the mock. I think they are leaning college and Jung would be my best guess. 12:32 Chimmy Chonga: Jasson Dominguez’ prospect ranking mid-season 2020 is what… 12:33 Kiley McDaniel: We’ve heard some very bullish accounts from clubs that think he should go comfortably in the top 100 the moment he signs. Wander Franco went in the 101-132 area when he signed and I think that’s about as high as 16 year old have been put in recent memory. 12:34 Roger: Hi Kiley – have you heard anything on Edward Cabrera? I’ve heard various things noting improved command and improved feel for the change 12:35 Kiley McDaniel: Actually ran into Cabrera in a random FSL day game a few weeks ago. 94-96 FB, 77-80 CB, 89-91 CH. Obviously CH was too firm, I thought it was a two-seam with occasional plus sink, breaker was average to a hair above, feel was okay but still more thrower than pitcher. 12:36 Al Avila: Odds Andrew Vaughn falls to Detroit? He’d be a perfect elixir for what the system is lacking. 12:36 Kiley McDaniel: Unlikely but not impossible. Maybe 5%? 12:36 Gumby Johnson: Y’all have Brett Baty in the top 20 which I agree with but I’ve seen him a good bit further down in others, is there a chance he’s actually there for teams in the late first? Feels like it should be unlikely to me 12:37 Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think he gets past 20-22 or so. Some see 60 hit/power and he can shockingly play 3B pretty well for a guy his size. There’s some Nolan Gorman/Austin Riley in there. 12:38 another bad dynasty manager: I used to work in construction…odd that your roofers are making so much noise. Most roofers now use nail guns which make a lot less noise. Are they tearing off the plywood too? 12:38 Kiley McDaniel: Had to tear off the two previous roofs and replace some decking, which I think they just wrapped up, so now comes the easy part? 12:38 Mike: Who are the known “hard signs” from the HS ranks who demand way more than your current ranking on your BOARD? 12:41 Kiley McDaniel: Rumors are $4M+ on Jack Leiter, sounds like Spencer Jones will be $2M+, Jerrion Ealy is probably about $2M. There’s some prep arms we have at the bottom of the 40’s or 35+’s that are $1.5M or more. Blake Walston also sounds like he’ll be overslot if he gets outside of the comp round. Brett Thomas sounds like he’ll be a good bit over $1M. Tre Fletcher should be tough after the first day. Vanderbilt looks well positioned to get a couple more studs on campus again, since they have half the guys I just mentioned and a couple others on the board with a big number. 12:42 Hunter Hayes: Someone told me you’re my doppelganger..You must “want crazy” 12:42 Kiley McDaniel: I’ve heard this rumor but not sure I buy it 12:42 Lilith: Likelihood that Abrams is there at 7 for the Reds? How about Bleday? 12:43 Kiley McDaniel: Let’s say 15% and 3% 12:43 Garrett: What is something I can do to separate myself from other college grads/students applying for FO internships? 12:43 Kiley McDaniel: Proof you’re good with SQL and R and the like, fluency in spanish, any kind of on field experience 12:44 Kiley McDaniel: Almost anything else (scouting reports, fancy education) apply to over half the applicants anyway 12:46 Angry Rangers Fan: Mason Englert had Tommy John surgery last month. Owen White is having Tommy John surgery today. Those are two of the Rangers three prep pitchers from last year’s draft who the team didn’t let pitch last year. Can we declare this “de-load” strategy a failure? 12:48 Kiley McDaniel: TEX has had lots of TJs recently and that’s obviously mostly bad luck because no one is very good at predicting TJ/not or when. The fact that these are coming when TEX is trying to change their processes brings more attention to it, but not sure it’s fair. For instance, I know one prep arm TEX took high that a couple teams were a little wary of his elbow and he’s been fine, while others they took that no one questioned the medical and multiple ones like that have blown out. Humbling game. I’d be more harsh if TEX was just changing nothing. 12:49 Johnny Storm: What round do you see Zachary Maxwell going? 12:50 Kiley McDaniel: Probably an overpay candidate beyond the top 3-4 rounds. Would guess there’s a couple teams that see him as $500k+ type but only a few, so not as much reason to spend a high pick with so little competition. 12:50 iron wolf: Kiley: as an Orioles fan, I’m wondering if Rutschman is the best player to select when they have so many holes to fill. Do you think they might have him DH or move him to the OF (like Harper) so he can get more ABs? 12:51 Kiley McDaniel: He’s an above defender with a plus arm and is pretty polished, so no. If a guy is rough back there and has that kind of bat, that’s when you move him, since the bat may be ready in 3 years but the glove may take 5 and have a concussion or two along the way. 12:51 Jim: How do scouts gauge signability and do GMs have “go to scouts” when they need a sure number? How do verbal agreements work, by range or fix number? 12:52 Kiley McDaniel: These days it’s GMs and scouting directors and agents, the scouts don’t have almost anything to do with that, just b/c that’s too many people to be in the loop for quick decisions. Some agents are trustworthy and quote an honest number and stick to it, others play games and drive everyone nuts. 12:53 Johnny Storm: You guys have Cameron Cannon listed at 6’7 on the board, is that a typo? 12:53 Kiley McDaniel: Yep, just fixed it, thanks 12:53 Wild Thornberries: Love your slow-mo videos you post on Instagram. What type of camera is that? Is it a pretty large scale investment to have one, or can someone go out and purchase it from like Amazon? 12:53 Kiley McDaniel: Pretty sure they’re on Amazon, I reference the model in the first slo-mo video 12:54 Another Braves Fan: Do you think there’s any likelihood that J.J. Bleday drops to the Braves at #9? 12:54 Kiley McDaniel: Almost 0% at this point 12:54 Johnny Storm: What round does TJ Sekemma go in? 12:54 Kiley McDaniel: Possibly sneaks in the 2nd, would guess 3rd or early 4th 12:55 Mikey B: Do you see Matt Canterino as a starter long term? It’s been a while but do teams still have to be wary of Rice’s poor reputation with pitchers? 12:55 Kiley McDaniel: He’s got a real shot, luckily the coach that chewed up elbows like the Cloverfield monster is gone this year so it’s a little less of a concern than it has been in the past 12:56 Kiley McDaniel: I don’t know Wayne Graham personally but how slowly he walked to the mound was enough to make me audibly say what are we doing dude COME ON more than a few times 12:58 Kiley McDaniel: but he’s a legend and won a bunch of games whatever. There’s more than a few college coaches that are net negatives to their players long-term but get revered because they win some games. Could not have less time for that “call the NFL owner Mr. ___” type of nonsense. Good coach that built a program and misuses the players while they aren’t being paid is not something I have much respect for in any of the college sports. 12:58 Big Joe Mufferaw: Is Yoan Moncada a good comp for Jasson Dominguez, or just a lazy comp? 12:59 Kiley McDaniel: The raw tools are similar but Dominguez is hitting the market with those tools 3 years younger, so you have to think there’s a chance Dominguez is just better. 1:00 Kiley McDaniel: But we didn’t have a ton of game context to know what Moncada’s limitations would be and that could also be true for Dominguez 1:01 Tondo: Steven Kwan is haunting you… 1:01 Kiley McDaniel: Hope he succeeds but he’s a smallish guy without much in the way of tools with a .400 BABIP 1:01 Kiley McDaniel: great approach tho! 1:01 Hank: Am I crazy for thinking Kimbrel to Atlanta after the draft is extremely likely? 1:02 Kiley McDaniel: Wouldn’t say extremely but I’m sure its more likely than before the draft 1:02 Craig: Can you please rank the following high school right handers as you think they’ll go off the board in June? Allan, Malone, Priester, Goss 1:03 Kiley McDaniel: I’ll say that order, but they may all go 15 to 25 or 30, so it’s easy for the order to get jumbled up with signability and medicals and specific team preferences get tossed in the mix 1:05 Miles: Who are the top senior signs this year 1:05 Kiley McDaniel: Denoted with ** on the board here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1… 1:05 Scout: Bark Bark 1:05 Kiley McDaniel: She just did that! 1:06 LudeBurger: I mock your drafts everyday haha (jk, you and Eric do amazing work and I am very appreciative of it all). 1:06 Kiley McDaniel: Not a lot of closing jokes for today and I’ve got some stuff to do so it’ll end here!