Kiley McDaniel Chat – 6/26/19

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Starting a little early and will run a bit shorter today since I’m tightly scheduled on my last day before I head to Florida for the MLB PDP event, my first of summer showcase season

Kiley McDaniel: As always, all our content and the graduation tracker are here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/

Kiley McDaniel: and THE BOARD with all our real-time rankings of every non-big-league baseball player on Earth of consequence is here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

Kiley McDaniel: and the big content this week is the unveiling of the J2 Board, with a preview and links to everything here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/july-2-international-amateur-p…

Kiley McDaniel: to your questions:

Greg: I think you said last week 65% chance Matt Allan signs. Where would you put that percentage now?

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe 75% now that it’s clear there is exactly $2.5M sitting there and just him left? About the same as last time.

Kiley McDaniel: I would also point out that it isn’t a coincidence Allan was taken in the 3rd round. The last round where you get a comp pick if he doesn’t sign, which gives NYM added leverage but inherently means either 1) there wasn’t a rock solid done deal when Allan was drafted or 2) there was another team set to take him right behind the Mets. I think both may be true.

Paul: Why did someone not pay Kumar Rocker whatever his price was last year?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like it was $4Mish and no matter how good you are, that kind of price on a prep RHP will get you to school almost every time. Cole Wilcox, Jack Leiter, etc.

CJ: Who are your favorite under the radar DSL/AZL prospects?

Kiley McDaniel: These guys are all getting added to THE BOARD as we hear about them, so I would just sort by age/level or look for DSL-only stats on the swirl board: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board-scouting-and-stats?pos=&…

Kiley McDaniel: btw, I should mention the swirl board that has scouting info and stats and all kinds of filtering options is super cool

Jeff: Rangers 7th rounder Brandon Sproat said he won’t sign and is heading to U Florida. Any chance Texas can make a late run at him? Seems strange for them to take him in the 7th there and not sign him.

Kiley McDaniel: That one was interesting b/c I heard his number was at least $1 million during the spring, then after he was taken top 10 rounds, I heard it was lower, so assumed TEX had a deal in place. Sometimes feelings/numbers change or the college gets to the kid and that drives things. UF also has Matthew Allan and Hunter Barco hanging out in the gray area of pro/school

Andrew: Howdy Kiley. What kind of player do you expect Adam Haseley to be/why? He seems to have fallen just outside of top 100s despite being pretty productive in the minors so it’s hard finding thorough reads on his status.

Kiley McDaniel: We think he’s pretty likely to be a 50 FV/2 WAR guy for a nice stretch but probably not much more than that

Jim Leyland Palmer: Is there anyway Rocker could be eligible for next year’s draft?

Kiley McDaniel: would have to transfer to a JC

Jack: So what’s the deal with the Phillies international class? Why no top prospects?

Kiley McDaniel: Been getting this question a lot, about different teams. The yearly reminder:

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of top int’l prospects don’t get much of a bonus and some orgs are good year in and year out at turning low bonus guys into prospects, with PHI maybe one of the best. NYY gets attention for the seven figure guys but their team list is littered with guys that signed for anywhere from $10k to $200k

Kiley McDaniel: Sixto Sanchez was $60k

Kiley McDaniel: So, while it’s becoming more common for top J2 prospects to then become top MILB prospects and then be 21 year old MLB stars, it DOES NOT mean you team is dumb or lazy b/c they don’t have a player in our top 40, however much you want to believe it. They may still be dumb or lazy, but that’s not the way you can tell these things

Kiley McDaniel: and PHI specifically was locked onto Yhoswar Garcia early, who we had 6th in the class and later was suspended a year for falsifying his identity, so they actually were set to sign one of the guys you wanted them to get. We’ve heard them tied to the Taiwanese prospects as well. PHI signed an Aussie RHP for high six figures a few weeks ago and are pretty active in the Pacific Rim.

Mike: Any recommendations for players to watch on the Cape this Summer?

Kiley McDaniel: It would take too long to go team-by-team, but THE BOARD has hundreds and hundreds of names, so you can do a quick 10 minute scan of the rosters before or at the park and see which have prospect value

Kiley McDaniel: 2020, 2021 and 2022 boards are all pretty robust right now

Anthony: Was Austin Martin well-regarded out of high school? His SEC career numbers are bonkers for a guy I don’t remember hearing much about before this season

Kiley McDaniel: Yep he was one of those 500k type kids with contact skills and feel but not loud tools and I believe his number was well over $1M, which is typical for the guys that emerge at top programs. That was also the story on Dansby Swanson, but he was more athleticism and feel but not so much on skills until college.

Tito: I’m a Cleveland native and considering coming to the FG meetup at Speakeasy. Do you have any more details on what the panel questions will consist of/any other notables for the event? Excited to have you all in NE Ohio!

Kiley McDaniel: We have had some conversations about the specific structure of things, but we are still hammering it out. I project 70-grade fun

Kiley McDaniel: but like 30-grade seriousness

Kiley McDaniel: Meg can probably speak more to what can currently be said about things, as she will be moderating

Kiley McDaniel: But you should all come out and drink with us

Tito: How do you each compile your scouting notes? Is there a Fangraphs database in excel or SQL that you upload everything into, do you have your own personal databases, or do you just go old fashioned with your notes?

Kiley McDaniel: I take notes in a notebook or sometimes on the roster given to me at the game, then rewrite those into a digital format that feeds into the board

Kiley McDaniel: since we’ve tried to cut out extra processes, we’re doing a lot more of taking notes from the game notebook and putting them straight on the board, because having your own spreadsheets and rankings and then the public ones makes it impossible to update all the different places at once with new info

Kiley McDaniel: so the 2020 draft board has tons of reports from Eric directly from the first event of the summer and i’ll jump in and add stuff after I’ve been to a few over the next few weeks

Tito: Would a scout get ridiculed if they took their notes on an iPad at a game? Or are some scouts starting to transition to digital notetaking?

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of guys are doing that now

Kiley McDaniel: I still prefer the notebook, which makes me look pretty traditional next to a guy in his 50’s on a big tablet. Scout literally chewed on one notebook recently, so I think she’s trying to push me to digital as well

Tito: How many guys do you write legit “reports” for with grades after you watch a game? Essentially, what’s the breakeven point on players when you feel you’re not devoting enough attention to everyone and can’t confidently assess their tools?

Kiley McDaniel: Depends because from a HS game with one notable prospect, writing up more than one game is a waste of time. Some SEC friday night games will have 15 top-10 round prospects of different classes on the field so you can’t bear down on all of them. Some MILB games have just 1-2 guys that interest us and others have 12. Loaded HS showcases or the Futures Game are near impossible to catch every meaningful thing

Kiley McDaniel: But, in general, if they’re on THE BOARD at all, we’re paying attention to them, but the most pressing (draft eligible this year) and higher rated get the bulk of the attention

Brandon: I was initially excited about the Angels selecting Kyren Paris in the 2nd round this year… However I have read that his HS batting average was in the low .300’s… Can you explain why this shouldn’t be concerning?

Kiley McDaniel: Some toolsy upside types are not “good” or consistent hitters in HS, they simply have all the elements and don’t often put them together. I always use Lewis Brinson as an example of a MLB starter that was a 1st rounder and his HS team had not other D1 talents and he wasn’t the best present hitter on his team.

Kiley McDaniel: Gangly awkward physical types and dual sport limited reps guy have the easiest excuses for this

SMachine: What are the upcoming HS tourney’s to cover? Who should I watch in the Cape?

Kiley McDaniel: Eric did PG National, I’m doing PDP and college Team USA. I’ll do East Coast Pro, Eric will do Area Codes and the PG All American. We may skip the Under Armor game, but I’ll do it if we cover it.

Kiley McDaniel: May or may not go to the Cape. Jupiter in October, HS team USA stuff later in the summer are other event. And Marietta happens around me in July but I may not be around then

Charlie: With Criswell and Kauffman fresh, it feels weird to say, but does Michigan actually have the edge tonight on the mound over a loaded Vandy team?

Kiley McDaniel: I would say Vandy has better P depth, but Hickman vs. Kauffman/Criswell means Michigan has a slight P advantage for tonight. Vandy has a better lineup but not by much. Have no idea if you can bet on this but I’m thinking Vandy is a very slight favorite.

me: what are your thoughts on marco luciano?  Just a good few games or perhaps the rankings riser that wander franco was last yr?

Kiley McDaniel: well he’s a 17 year old with very little pro game experience and he’s 84th in the top 100, so more the latter https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

Kiley McDaniel: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-29-prospects-san-francisco-giants/

Bob Ley #1 fan: Are the A’s signing any other J2 prospects of note besides Puason?

Kiley McDaniel: I think Puason will eat up almost all of their money

Slick Rick Hahn: Yolbert Sanchez ETA? Compare him to Nicky Magic for me.

Kiley McDaniel: Other than playing middle infield, and having good hands on defense, they have essentially nothing else in common

Bob Ley #1 fan: You hear pretty often about MLB players who are “on the market” for the trade deadline. Are there ever any prospects who are telegraphed as available by their teams?

Kiley McDaniel: There is value in a protracted negotiation with a club that doesn’t end in a trade because when you give them a list of prospects and they say yes/no, you can impute what their internal ranking is of their guys. Anytime you get yes/no’s on 20 players, at least one will stand out as odd

Kiley McDaniel: so that isn’t like announced formally, but you can figure it out vs. your reports and public rankings

Kiley McDaniel: Alrighty well I haven’t gotten deep enough in the queue to even find the jokey questions, but it’s time for me to split. Next week I’ll be in Charlotte for Cuba vs. college USA but I’ll go extra long then and I’ll have lots of 2020 draft thoughts and maybe some questions for the group as I work on the Trade Value Rankings. See you next week!