Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 1/23/15

Kiley McDaniel: I’m starting to run out of non-snappy things to say to kick off chats.

Comment From Raza
Where would you rank the Yankees farm system? Top 10? Top 15? 20? Bottom 10?

Kiley McDaniel: Just wrapping up their list right now. I have them 11th at the moment, but as covered in my last piece, the idea of ranking the systems depends on what you want to emphasize, since there isn’t an objective method for this yet.

Comment From j
Your Yankee list coming out today?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s up to the editors when it gets published, but about 30 min away from finishing it…once I finish this chat, of course. Currently at 6900 words.

Comment From The Butter-Upperer
Kiley, Old Bean, your chats are top drawer material.

Kiley McDaniel: Thanks but I also want to know what you’re up to and how someone from the 1920’s has access to the internet

Comment From mtsw
How is the Dan Duquette situation not an egregious violation of MLB tampering rules? Or does the MLB just not care as payback for Angelos taking the MASN dispute to court?

Kiley McDaniel: This whole situation is confusing. It appears Duquette is interested in taking this job and this is making Angelos more inclined to want to let him leave, but given the way in which this and other disputes with MLB have gone down, he wants to clearly win this exchange, whether it means keeping Duquette or getting a king’s ransom for him. I’m also a little unclear on the mechanics of how this happened or what TOR is actually trying to accomplish–get a new baseball guy over Alex, get a president-like role, to disrupt BAL, or some combination of all three.

Comment From Yetty
Francis Martinez OF ARI. Fair to say RF/1B only type prospect? Have ya had a chance to see him yet? Any other thoughts you could share aobut the kid?

Kiley McDaniel: Funny you mention that name because I’ve already written him up here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Big raw power, 17 years old, only played instructs in the states

Comment From Kretin
Kiley! Who is a prospect in the Angel’s system that I can be really excited about?

Kiley McDaniel: Multiple people have pushed for me to rank Sean Newcomb over Andrew Heaney.

Comment From Bobby Blownilla
Do you prefer Casey Meisner or Stephen Gonsalves? Do you see either taking a Glasnow like leap in development?

Kiley McDaniel: Wouldn’t expect anyone to make that leap ever, since it’s so rare. I’d take Gonsalves, but it’s relatively close. both are 40 FV guys.

Comment From rabbit ears the third
how did the entire baseball industry miss on Tim Anderson? going from undrafted to a 1st round pick in 1 season is pretty incredible.

Kiley McDaniel: All I know is when I asked this question to some area scouts during Anderson’s draft spring, they didn’t take it as a curious guy wanting to know the backstory, but as someone accusing them of sucking at their job. Then I found a guy in his first year that explained it to me. A little laziness, he came out late due to basketball, the coach didn’t hype him and hid him in left field…but he still got on some boards and went to a couple pre-draft workout and still wasn’t drafted…so he was legitimately whiffed on by all 30 teams.

Comment From Chris
Do the White Sox have three in the top 50?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve got an early working top 100 and the Sox have two in the top 50, then a third around 65. Subject to change, though.

Comment From Vslyke
Do you think the Braves’ strategy of acquiring pitchers with a history of injury problems (especially TJs) is wise?

Kiley McDaniel: No one has ever had a strategy of acquiring pitchers that have had arm surgery. That would be a stupid strategy. A pitcher with Fried’s upside is only available in a trade if he’s coming off TJ, so that was the strategy, and you put up with the injury as a necessary evil.

Comment From Razor
Jon Singleton or Josh Bell? Think Singleton can hit for enough average?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll slightly prefer Bell, but both a 1B types without enormous tools you like to see over there

Comment From RotoLando
Prospects Chats are my favorite chats this time of year, so thanks

Kiley McDaniel: Why are you guys being so nice? Are you about to ask me for money? I’M NOT CONTRIBUTING TO YOUR KICKSTARTER

Comment From Mike
If the Phillies do indeed move Pap to the Brewers, any names to keep an eye out for the return? (assuming they eat a decent, ~$4 M per season, amount of money)

Kiley McDaniel: Not sure what kind of return Papelbon would fetch, but the Brewers have some solid depth in the 45-50 FV area. Taylor Williams, Jorge Lopez, Michael Reed, Miguel Diaz all could be guys to target.

Comment From RotoLando
Hector Olivera was supposed to have his showcase in the DR this week. Have you seen any reports?

Kiley McDaniel: Talked to a guy that was at at the workout yesterday. Said he looks close to big league ready and has some everyday 2B type tools. He isn’t subject to bonus pools, so sounds like $10M+.

Comment From Phillies113
Are there any promising young first basemen coming up in this or possibly next year’s draft that the Phillies can target? Ryan Howard IS going to come off the books eventually, and they’re going to have to replace him.

Kiley McDaniel: That’s not really the best way too approach that problem. The Phillies will dump Howard at some point and while they’re dumping, may could target some 1Bs in trades. It’s very unusual to target a position of MLB need in the draft and then have that guy fill that need in the next year or two unless we’re talking top 10 pick college bats and even then you need some luck. That guy doesn’t exist in the 2015 draft class right now.

Comment From Chrip
How big of a grain of salt is the Cal League’s run environment when looking at Matt Olson’s gaudy 2014?

Kiley McDaniel: Weirdly low report from scouts on him, they talked me out of making him a 50, so he’s now a 45 FV in that upcoming list. They thin the bat speed is ordinary, the swing is long and he has trouble against premium stuff. If he keeps raking, maybe those concerns dry up a bit, but the industry is sufficiently skeptical right now.

Comment From j
6900 words. Nice.

Kiley McDaniel: This is why we can’t have nice things, Lana.

Comment From mtsw
Think Dylan Bundy is ready for a starting spot in Baltimore? If he is, do they send him down anyway until they can deal one of their expiring contracts (Chen and Norris)?

Kiley McDaniel: He has one option left, so unless he’s ready to come to the big leagues to stay, you leave him down this year until he’s ready. I’d say 10% chance he breaks with the club this year.

Comment From Raza
Any idea when Yoan Moncada might be cleared to sign?

Kiley McDaniel: Still no idea, but some news on that front I’m working on writing up now

Comment From yincey
Cannot wait for your Yankees writeup – spoiler alert — will Aaron Judge hit 20+ homers on a consistent basis? I’ve been drooling over his 2014 and then I wonder about the BABIPs (.323, .408,.377) and I keep getting scared we’re looking at the next Kyle Blanks…

Kiley McDaniel: Is asking a question a spoiler alert?

It’s 70 raw power that plays more to 60 in games, which is 20-25 homers. And he still may figure out a way to tap into all of it. He’s #2 on the list and I’m already wrong based on what I thought he’d be pre-draft.

Kiley McDaniel: For those Yankees fans chomping at the big for their list, sounds like we’re going to hold it for Monday. Rest assured it’ll be super long. Braves, A’s and Angels all coming soon after.

Comment From Tuben
Is Jesus Lopez someone to watch in the A’s system?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s an Others of Note to be more specific. Has tools but still early to discount given the performance. Got almost $1 million a year ago.

Comment From Herb from Tampa
What do you think about the Astros outfield prospects? What does the signing of Rasmus say about Marisnick, Santana, and Tucker?

Kiley McDaniel: Confused by Marisnick since there’s huge CF tools but not a lot of feel at the plate. Santana similarly so, but with a RF profile and Tucker is more of a platoon/bench lefty bat. Wrote up Santana and Tucker here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From DL
Who better Matz or Thor?

Kiley McDaniel: Thor: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

That said, I did downgrade Syndergaard a notch after some scouts questioned his breaking ball in the past couple weeks.

Comment From Guest1
What are your thoughts about Bryan Mitchell? #Yanks

Kiley McDaniel: Chris Tillman type ability, could be 3/4 starter or power reliever. 60 FB and CB, but inconsistent.

Comment From Joe Toronto
Can Javy Baez beat the strikeout demons, or he Russell Branyan 2.0?

Kiley McDaniel: Scouts are really cautious about Baez. They love praising his tools and telling me to put him high on prospect lists but some people are super duper wary of his makeup–not sure anyone pays retail to acquire him. Dude isn’t just erratic at the plate.

Comment From Brian
Eric Gonzalez of the Indians has been pretty divisive as far as lists go this offseason. What type of prospect is he?

Kiley McDaniel: Good glove not bat guy entering the year and suddenly started hitting this year. Probably 45 FV but worth keeping an eye on

Comment From Abe
Can Dariel Alvarez or Preston Tucker win a roster spot out of spring training?

Kiley McDaniel: The teams that own these guys are higher on them than the industry and both may warrant it on merit, so I’d say a pretty good shot.

Comment From Dan D
Kiley – thanks for abandoning your ‘started from the bottom now we’re here’ approach to prospect lists right when you would get to the Jays – Sneak peek at how they look from a depth perspective both 50+ and total?

Kiley McDaniel: No problem! Norris, Hoffman, Sanchez, Pompey, Pentecost & Osuna are the 50+ guys right now with Reid-Foley and Travis as 45+. Currently 13th best system.

Comment From GSon
Ongoing discussion at an Indians Forum.. Several are absolutist as it relates to Francisco Lindor and his future.. Others, (myself included) believe he’ll be a decent glove.. some hit SS.. but Brad Zimmer and Clint Frazier should be # 1 and # 1a on the Indians prospect list. What say you?

Kiley McDaniel: Lindor is #1 by a good margin but those other two are 2/3 for me. Scouts a little skeptical of the huge hype for Lindor offensively-speaking, but still should comfortably be an everyday guy.

Comment From Fan
I Have the third pick in my dynasty draft would you give up a prospect like Winker or Bell to trade up to #1 for a shot at Moncada?

Kiley McDaniel: No idea if it’s worth it, but Winker is around the middle of a top 100 and Moncada is around 5-12, so you figure it out with that info.

Comment From Coco
Pick one of Taijuan Walker, Joc Pederson, Rusney Castillo to have forever

Kiley McDaniel: Pederson but the concept of forever freaks me out

Kiley McDaniel: I mean what if Pederson doesn’t like Chipotle oh who am I kidding he’s a baseball player of course he loves Chiptole

Comment From Conor
What was the best part about working for the Yankees? Worst?

Kiley McDaniel: Getting free tickets to Yankee Stadium in the last year, getting to sign a few indy league guys and one made the big leagues (Edwar Ramirez), getting to meet all the huge name guys in a somewhat natural situation, not at some weird party they were forced to go

Comment From David
Do you think AJ Cole is a reliever? The Nats hinted at putting him in the bullpen this year and they need bullpen help.

Kiley McDaniel: Just wrote a bunch about him here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

He’ll likely have to break in as a reliever and some guys never turn into starters after that, so who knows

Comment From Nate
Who has more value, in your opinion, to most other teams: Baez or Schwarber?

Kiley McDaniel: Baez probably, but varies team to team and I bet a couple teams would take Schwarber.

Comment From Nate
Has Kyle Schwarber ever played third-base before?

Kiley McDaniel: Not that I know of. I don’t think that would go very well

Comment From Bomok
Who’s better, Soler, Finnigan or Matz?

Kiley McDaniel: Soler

Comment From The Earl of Baltimore
I know that it is exceedingly unlikely to happen but the thought of a 2017 rotation of Bundy/Hoffman/Gausman with HH in AA/AAA has me….very excited. (With all the usual caveats of pitcher health thrown in.)

Kiley McDaniel: People making dream big league rosters of years into the future is one of my least favorite things about the internet

Kiley McDaniel: It’s like Gammons’ penchant for naming every good young player a team has in a column has birthed a million more people making fake rosters. Has one of these ever been accurate even six months in advance?

Comment From mtsw
Is Mike Yaszstremski just a case of an older guy beating up on low-level pitching or is he actually overperforming to the extent we need to reevaluate his ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: Okay here’s today’s reminder to look up the player you’re asking about in the search bar at the top of the page and look at his recent articles because many of these questions are about player I wrote about at length in the last few weeks.

Yaz is a fringy tools performer that’s likely just a 4th outfielder, but could be a low end starter if he keeps hitting like this: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Clamdigger
Every FG chatter needs a hook. Eno has beer, Zim has video games, there’s the volcano guy….you have a blank slate. What’s your hook going to be?

Kiley McDaniel: We have a volcano guy?

Kiley McDaniel: Talked to an exec a couple days ago and asked him essentially this question after we talked about a very idiosyncratic friend of ours in the game. His responde: “I dunno. A lot of people call me an asshole, maybe that’s my thing?”

Comment From Ryguy
If the Orioles get Hoffman from the Blue Jays as compensation for DD, where would he fall within your Orioles prospect list?

Kiley McDaniel: 3rd. 55 FV. Tweeted about this and answered in the comments of the BAL list. Soon I’ll get a skywriter to fly it over the Baltimore skyline.

Comment From Nate
Any pitchers in the White Sox system (other than Rodon) that have front-end upside?

Kiley McDaniel: If Montas makes tons of progress this year or Spencer Adams puts on a lot of weight maybe…but probably not.

Comment From Hermin
Is Phil Ervin still in Cincinnati’s plans?

Kiley McDaniel: Some scouts put an NP (non prospect) with a do not acquire grade on him this year. He needs to hit and then we can talk about that other stuff.

Comment From Razor
Are MLB pitchers guilty of deflating balls? Is that why HR totals are in decline?

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe I could be the completely contrived faux hot take guy? Is that Jon Bois’ beat already?

Comment From bob
how are minor leaguers defensive value tracked?

Kiley McDaniel: I asked a very statistically oriented team about this and they admitted they don’t even had reliable defensive numbers for A-Ball, as far as using them to project future defensive value. Mostly eyeballs until the upper levels.

Comment From mtsw
Your evaluating the prospects on the Orioles had some pretty specific info about their internal prospect rankings. They aren’t concerned about making their internal evaluations public? Or, alternatively, are you at all concerned that they may have leaked you disinformation about their rankings in order to make some guys appear more valuable for trades?

Kiley McDaniel: Well I used to work there so it wasn’t like I’m some random guy they decided to throw a list at and I need to evaluate what their motivations are. There are a lot of different opinions in the org, so if I say that one list has this guy higher/lower than I/other teams have them, it’s not like the various other opinions in the organization get ignored in those trade talks. That list is a starting point that’s always changing and only matters for trade talks, and when rubber meets the road the actions in trade talks won’t perfectly match the list. So their internal list is just a guide for where to start and after exchanging a few names, any team could figure out the stuff I wrote. I just let the public in on some of it.

Comment From Brian
Dude, I know people have told you this already, but I have never read prospect content as deep and thorough as what your putting out there. Thanks for the effort. I’ve been told Keith Law is the hardest worker in your business, but you must be up there too as far as hours go.

Kiley McDaniel: Last week it was Badler and now it’s Law that’s getting too much shine in my chat. Sounds like I need to work harder to make sure they’re never mentioned again.

Comment From belieber
Gabby Guerrero/Nick Gordon — nepotism or LEGIT?!

Kiley McDaniel: Gordon is a solid 50 FV, Guerrero I’m not sold on yet, probably a 45 FV when that list comes around. Are either of those legit? I still have no idea what that word means.

Comment From Chantix
I don’t quite get the Stephen Piscotty love… a full year at AAA with a .761 OPS, who cares?

Kiley McDaniel: Not a blow you away plus tool guy, except maybe his arm. .270 with 20 homers is still useful.

Comment From Yetty
Care to handicap the likelihood Carlos Correa starts his MLB career at 3B ala Machado or stays at SS for the first couple seasons?

Kiley McDaniel: SS early, 3B late

Comment From Bubba Starling
I asked a question late in the chat last week that you didn’t have a chance to get to…and I am not even sure if it was valid. Do you answer questions about prospects on teams you haven’t written up yet this year? If so…here goes: Have you heard anything encouraging (or otherwise) about Marten Gasparini? Also – Kyle Zimmer: If you had to pick one, is he closer to leading a big-league rotation, or hanging em up?

Kiley McDaniel: Super early on Gasparini. He’s 19 and until this year only played in Italy. Zimmer is confounding. Checks every box as an elite SP prospect and can’t stay healthy. I’ll still say he can start but these types usually end up in relief. Closer upside tho

Comment From Jake
NYYSYSTEMNYYSYSTEMNYYSYSTEMNYYSYSTEMNYYSYSTEMNYYSYSTEMNYYSYSTEMNYYSYSTEMNYYSYSTEM

Kiley McDaniel: Monday, bro

Comment From Mike
Can you remember a prospect that has royally struggled to the extent Javy Baez did last year (combined with his awful winter in the Puerto Rican league) to recover and live up to expectations? I keep telling myself Rizzo to keep hope alive.

Kiley McDaniel: It’s really early and I think he’ll turn into some kind of everyday guy…and I’m the low guy on Baez.

Comment From Jake
Last year’s FG rankings put the Yankee system at 20th. What’s behind the bounceback?

Kiley McDaniel: Well I didn’t do last year’s rankings, but Severino and Judge and Mateo and Lindgren and Bird all emerged and they signed a bunch of elite 16 year olds so that seems like a good start

Comment From mtsw
Very small quibble, but in the future, could you list batter’s handedness in your org rankings?

Kiley McDaniel: I do for the 50+ FV guys and usually reference if a guy is lefty or switch in the lower FVs, so you can assume he’s righty if I don’t say anything

Comment From Bobby Blownilla
Thoughts on Christian Arroyo? What’s his FV?

Kiley McDaniel: 45+. Solid tools, advanced feel to hit, limited quickness, unsettled position

Comment From Jimmer
How many Twins are in your top 50?

Kiley McDaniel: How funny would it be to see the response if I said 0? Probably 3.

Comment From Nate
We are being nice to you because it’s Friday.

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t trust you, I’ve been burned too many times

Comment From Nick
Do you see any plus tools in Greg Bird or is he just a high floor-low ceiling prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: 60 raw, 50+ bat. HE’S LEGIT.

Comment From Guest1
MLB just came out with their top 10 1B prospects. They had Greg Bird at #3. Are you a fan as well?

Kiley McDaniel: 50 FV, bruh

Comment From @Jaypers413
Re: Moncada. Any chance you could contact the OFAC and ask what the delay is?

Kiley McDaniel: LOL, literally no one can call OFAC, get a human on the line and get an answer to a question. It’s like the crackers or cinnamon challenge.

Comment From Chad
Do Eddie Butler and Jon Gray still warrant the kind of hype they were getting last offseason?

Kiley McDaniel: Oooooh, a new phrasing of the legit question. Do they warrant the hype, as the reader perceived the hype, coming from various people that weren’t me. That’s a fun twist.

Comment From JAMZ
Where would a pre-TJS jameson Taillon rank among today’s SP prospects? Top 10? Top 20?

Kiley McDaniel: Somewhere in the 20-35 area

Comment From THE Average Sports Fan
What is more concerning to a team when a prospect comes up and struggles: Pitcher not missing bats or hitter not making contact?

Kiley McDaniel: Hitter not making contact is harder to fix than pitcher not missing bats. Provided he has above average stuff, it’s normally just some tweaks to fix that. Hitter swinging and missing is often flawed swing or flawed mental approach and both are harder to fix.

Comment From Dave
Saw this on Twitter earlier. Anything to make of this? Seems like a lot of adjustments…

Kiley McDaniel: Assuming that’s Bubba Starling. Maybe he has a future as a competitor to Batting Stance Guy?

Comment From Yetty
Have you had a chance to check out Richard Urena SS TOR yet?

Kiley McDaniel: Have seen him a decent amount. Good glove, bat is light right now.

Comment From greg
Whereabouts do you see Ian Happ getting drafted this summer?

Kiley McDaniel: We have a long article about this going up on Mon or Tues. somewhere in top 2 rounds.

Comment From Andy
Do you ever cover so many guys that Cistulli has trouble picking “his guy?” Or does Cistulli always have a guy?

Kiley McDaniel: He gets mad that I pick so many guys but it then turns out the guys he was looking at were never on my radar at all, or they’re in the 10-15 area and he just didn’t know the name yet. Most of the guys he’s picked are guys I’ve literally never heard of.

Comment From dom
Why does it feel like I heard Rusney Castillo was the last impact Cuban prospect on the horizon and all of a sudden there’s all these other players who are supposed to be very good

Kiley McDaniel: He was never the last. Maybe the last that was currently out of Cuba at one point, but there’s always gonna be more. It’s like saying Florida or Texas is going to run out of top tier college football recruits. NOT HAPPENIN BRO

Comment From mtsw
Which pitcher development philosophy makes more sense in your opinion: 1) protect young pitcher’s arms, because they are a valuable and fragile resource 2) try to extract as much value out of young pitchers’ arms before they inevitably and unpredictably blow them out or become free agents?

Kiley McDaniel: I get asked a lot of either/or questions like this and my answer is almost never one or the other.

Comment From Jose
Of course monday is the day, gotta get those slacking at work pageviews.

Kiley McDaniel: Would you like us to release it a 5 pm on a Friday like it’s an embarrassing press release? If I was Bill Simmons, I would’ve turned that joke into a suspension with 8 additional words.

Comment From dom
Do you agree with this: “Asian infielders don’t pan out in MLB becuase the game is too fast, etc”

Kiley McDaniel: Yup, there are my readers.

Comment From Jay
You’ve tweeted that the Yankees have the deepest farm system. What do they do differently to bring talent in than other clubs?

Kiley McDaniel: Spend $30 million on July 2nd

Comment From Guest
So Gleyber Torres is making a name for himself, eh?

Kiley McDaniel: So now we have “is he legit” “has he lived up to the hype” and “is he making a name for himself”

Comment From Mlb71817
Dermis Garcia and Jorge Mateo?

Kiley McDaniel: They are on the list, yes

Comment From mtsw
Will increasing social acceptable/legalization of pot change how orgs evaluate the makeup of guys with failed marijuana drug tests?

Kiley McDaniel: Teams never cared about it from a moral standpoint unless it was an addiction. It’s always been a legal/suspension question more than anything. MLB still outlaws it, so still a problem for teams to deal with.

Comment From Chad
How far away is David Dahl?

Kiley McDaniel: I would guess he’s in Alabama, so I’ll need your location to properly answer this

Comment From Nicks
If russel, baez, bryant, and castro are performing who gets pushed out of the infield and where?

Kiley McDaniel: Another annoying internet thing is when people get legitimately worried about what their team will do with too many good players. Like when the Chargers had Rivers and Brees and things worked out after they lost Brees for nothing because….oh wait

Comment From j
Looking forward to the NYY list on Monday. Did Brady Lail make the cut?

Kiley McDaniel: Just barely made the list

Comment From Yetty
Chris Breen 1B Yankees……..GO!

Kiley McDaniel: LF fit, 55 raw power, others section

Comment From Joe Toronto
I know relief prospects aren’t sexy, but is Sam Tuivailala about as sexy as it gets?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve had a lot of borderline creepy questions today. Maybe I’m the guy with creepy chat questions?

Comment From Big D
For those of us who can’t wait xx minutes for the Yankees list to post, can you give a brief synopsis on Jorge Mateo? Thanks, Kiley!

Kiley McDaniel: Here’s a long one with video: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Mlb71817
Are the yankees lacking higher level impact prospects or is that just a bad reputation?

Kiley McDaniel: Bad rep but that rep was correct until this year

Comment From dom
latest reviews on Gary Sanchez’s defense?

Kiley McDaniel: We’ll end on this one. You’ll get to see the full breakdown on Monday, but the tools are still here to catch, he’ll keep catching and not one scout on a rival team I’ve talked to thinks he’ll actually be a big league catcher. Tune in Monday to find out why!