Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 12/9/2020

Meg Rowley: Hi everyone! I’ll be getting started in just a few minutes here – just wrapped recording Effectively Wild and need to grab a seltzer.

Meg Rowley: And am returned, with a seltzer and some chips. Let’s chat!

Scotty: Meg…. hello

Meg Rowley: Hi there!

dude: Rank these OF for 2021; Arozarna, Teoscar, Carlson, JD Martinez, Laureano, Mountcastle, Winker.  Going to be thinking about who to prioritize as keepers and trade bait soon.

Meg Rowley: My name is Meg and I am once again going to ask you to direct fantasy questions to our fantasy writers, as they know what they’re talking about when it comes to fantasy, and I decidedly do not.

Jeff: Is there a more relatable figure in pro sports than Steve-y Cohen? His tweet about losing 2 pounds…he’s just like me

Guest: Steve-y Cohen: Mets savior or MLB savior? That guy is such a hero, and his wallet is so big 😉

Guest: Super relatable RoY favorite owner, Steve-y Cohen, is on Twitter! Man of the people this guy

Jeff: Hi Meg!! I would like to thank you all at FanGraphs for keeping the content coming. Is super relatable rookie owner, Steve-y Cohen with the Mets, the favorite for RoY?

Meg Rowley: Setting aside the obviously joking nature of these, I beg of you to not getting overly invested in or allow yourself to be charmed by billionaire owners. It is nice that he is more apt to communicate with fans than the Wilpons seemed to be and that he is keen to win, but I assure you that that way lies madness.

Guest: What is your take on the White Sox/Rangers trade? Who “won” the trade in your opinion? Thanks!

Meg Rowley: Even allowing for the reality that the franchises were trying to accomplish different things, and that it appears Lynn was ready to opt out if he was traded this summer, which surely changes our understanding of their at-the-time puzzling decision not to move him at the deadline, Chicago did well here.

Meg Rowley: Lynn has been a top 10 pitcher the last two years on the back of a reworked pitch mix that saw him trim his sinker usage, throw his cutter and four-seamer more, get more whiffs, profit etc etc. The move brings them stability up top, pushes guys with more question marks further down, and also adds just a tremendous beard to the org.

Meg Rowley: The whole thing makes me wonder where Joey Gallo is playing at the end of text season.

Vcap51: I just wanted to say I really enjoyed the livestream yesterday. Was fun to see some familiar faces or just to put familiar voices to new faces.

Meg Rowley: I’m so glad. Despite feeling out of my depth with streaming, I had fun, too.

dude: On a per inning basis, chance Dunning > Lynn this coming year?

Meg Rowley: I would be surprised. I like Dunning fine, but Lynn is just very good.

Syndergaardengnomes: If you had to guess, what are the odds of NL DH?  What are the odds of expanded playoffs?  I haven’t met a single real baseball fan who prefers expanded playoffs…  Why are we cheapening the 162 game season?

Meg Rowley: I still think the DH is an inevitability and the league has certainly demonstrated a willingness to change up the rules midstream, so I could see that being sprung upon teams in a few months. I think we will also see expanded playoffs but I wouldn’t be surprised if that ends up being a point of contention in the next CBA, so if we get them again in 2021, I don’t imagine they will be in their final form.

Meg Rowley: tldr we’ll have both eventually, the league will try to leverage the DH to get expanded playoffs, teams will express a desire for a universal DH, we might end up with one sort of last minute, and I imagine we have both on a permanent basis for 2022.

Nolan: Last I saw the Mariner’s payroll projects to be 22M lower than last season according to RosteResource, is it right to think that them now reinvesting at least close to that amount this offseason should be expected of them even with the pandemic? 2020’s payroll was already low for the team and to lower it even more when there’s a good amount of solid players out there to sign would be quite the missed opportunity just to make the billionaire owners checkbooks look better.

Meg Rowley: I think that the availability of lower cost alternatives will prove too tempting for a team that is still assessing minor leaguers who just “played” a weird-ass season and who the club hopes will be the core of the next winning Mariners team. Add in the pandemic and the looming CBA negotiation, and I’d imagine 2022 is the earliest we see free agent cash really add up in Seattle.

Meg Rowley: Watch now they’re going to sign Bauer for $100 million.

dude: Will Gavin Lux be a starter in 2021?

Meg Rowley: A starter? He’s in the mix for sure. At second? Ehhhhhh. I think the throwing issues are real and haven’t shown a ton of improvement, so he might end up making sense as another of these Dodger guys who float between the infield and the outfield, perhaps helping to spell Pollack in left sometimes, perhaps sometimes playing at second.

Meg Rowley: (apologies, my internet was being squirrelly for a second)

Meg Rowley: This likely means very little, but it was recently pointed out to me that Mookie is on the Dodgers’ depth chart as a backup at second.

FanGraphsGraphsFan: Was last night an active endorsement of alcoholism?

Meg Rowley: Nope! I hope it was clear that folks were welcome to drink whatever they wanted, alcoholic or non, or nothing at all.

Meg Rowley: I will say that folks at Winter Meetings aren’t famous for making Good Choices.

Aaron: So, it’s good that the Royals are spending, but…why did they spend on Carlos Santana?

Meg Rowley: It’s an odd fit. That’s not to say that Santana is bad, or that he isn’t useful to KC, or that they aren’t a better team with him.

Meg Rowley: But the gap between the Royals with him and the Royals without him is the difference between them contending or not.

Meg Rowley: It isn’t even the difference if all their young dudes take a huge leap forward

Meg Rowley: And he isn’t likely to bring a difference-making prospect back in trade.

Meg Rowley: That said, he is good, and he is useful, and they are a better team with him.

Meg Rowley: And I do like the idea of teams fielding sort of competitive rosters with goodish players while they’re in the late stages of their rebuild.

Meg Rowley: It’s also a pleasant surprise to see that profile of player do well.

v2micca: We have all seen games delayed due to animal interference.  Normally some poor park employee has to chase down the cat, or dog, or whatever has wandered onto the field.  But, back around the turn of the century, I imagine the players themselves had to deal with animal intrusions.  And possibly bore the wrath of many an irate cat.  So I was wondering, to your knowledge, has any player actually missed time due to an injury from an animal on the field?

Meg Rowley: Not that I know of, though if one has, I’d imagine a snake was the likely culprit, probably one the player didn’t realize was there and who didn’t appreciate his presence.

Uri: Does FanGraphs plan on running a piece on Sugano? It’s always hard to gauge what to expect from guys coming over and I need FG to think for me.

Meg Rowley: Be sure to check out his blurb on the International Players tab of The Board https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/international-players/su…

Meg Rowley: At the very least, we’ll have more coverage when he signs.

Mike: Who will be playing 1B and 3B for Nats when season starts?

Meg Rowley: I think Kieboom at third, and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the many 1B/DH types out there was brought in to man first.

dude: Can Matt Olson bounce back for 2021?  What do you see as a probable range for his BA and what kind of HR numbers are you expecting from him?

Meg Rowley: Yes, I believe so. I’d imagine he settles around .250 with 35 HRs.

Meg Rowley: ZiPS has him at .253 with 36 for next year; Steamer pegs him at .242 and 37.

Meg Rowley: Don’t I feel clever.

C@$hman: Yankees could sign Lemahieu

Meg Rowley: It is within the realm of things they could do.

Snohomished: If corporate naming rights were not a thing (I learned only yesterday that Seattle now apparently is home to Lumen Field), do you have any leanings toward what the Mariners’ stadium should be called?

Meg Rowley: Just so folks aren’t confused, the stadium where the Seahawks play is now Lumen Field; Mariners still play at T-Mobile.

Meg Rowley: My suggestion when Safeco was rolling off was Rainier Field after the local beer (which I believe is now owned by Anheuser-Busch.)

Meg Rowley: It struck me as a good compromise – local roots, iconic mountain, Culturally Significant Beer (at least to folks in the region), but it doesn’t sound corporate

Meg Rowley: plus they could have made the Rs in Mariners the Rainier R

Meg Rowley: no one listens to me

Dave: Hi Meg. With the uncertainty surrounding the universal DH, are there any winners or losers, or is it just a waiting game? Will any players miss out on opportunities while the whole thing is getting worked out?

Meg Rowley: There will be guys with less good markets among the free agents – I said last time, and I generally think this is true, that the perceived fungibility of 1B/DH hurts those guys and while more DH spots means more of them get jobs, I don’t think it changes things so much that say, fewer of them are non-tendered, or their salaries sky rocket. But Ozuna and Cruz definitely would appreciate more options, even if they are still likely to sign lucrative deals.

Other Guest: I want to ask what changed for the winter meetings going virtual but I actually don’t even understand what they were like in pre pandemic times! Is it just a good time to ask anyone to video chat right now versus running into an agent in a hotel bar??

Meg Rowley: I got to sleep more. The polo shirt and khaki market experienced a micro-depression. I ate less well this week.

Meg Rowley: More seriously, things got harder for job seekers who would normally go in person and try to catch with a team, major or minor league, though it is hard to know how to feel about that, since that route tends to privilege those who are able to afford Winter Meetings over those who can’t.

Meg Rowley: I will say that I have friends I really only see at industry events because of where we live, and I am sad to be without that this year.

Luke: HI Meg ! The common response to the Minor League Affiliate offers from teams is that we have received it but not accepted the invite. Is this a situation where teams are comparing notes with each other before formally accepting or do you see a more in depth legal issues looming between the Milb teams and MLB

Meg Rowley: I think both – it’s a big change with potentially significant consequences for the franchise and the last several months of the negotiations were a clusterf*ck.

Jeff: Call me crazy, but was that Iglesias trade to the Angels more about baseball than salary? Iglesias bounced back big this year but had to cut a couple pitches to do it, had given up 24 HRs in just 130+ innings, Ramirez’s fastball gets some interesting results despite the velocity

Meg Rowley: I try not to call people crazy, but I don’t think your analysis is quite right.

Meg Rowley: Ramirez isn’t without talent but the value for Cincy was clearly in getting Iglesias’ salary off the books.

Magic Kingdome: Chris Flexen to the M’s — how many season tickets would this have sold if, you know, people were buying season tickets?  (Seriously, how interesting is Flexen?)

Meg Rowley: Stay tuned for an article answering your serious question soon!

Chuck E: Do the Mariners currently have a player who is the “face of the franchise”? If so, who is it?

Meg Rowley: Kyle Lewis seems like the obvious position player complement to Marco Gonzales.

Meg Rowley: I think Julio will be in the running soon.

N. Georg: I apologize for the vague question, but what do you think about Keston’s future? What are the odds he breaks out into an all-star/borderline superstar?

Meg Rowley: The glove will always be a concern but I love that dude’s bat and could definitely see an All-Star season being a possibility.

Rex: When will team previews start on EW?

Meg Rowley: Likely February, as usual.

Jeb: whats a realistic expectation for Lindor this year on a new team?

Meg Rowley: That he will be very good and that Cleveland fans will feel badly about it, while still being happy for him personally.

Joe: with MLB determining youth participation in baseball being the number 1 predictor of adult fandom. Couldn’t MLB just like, buy little league baseball and make it free?

Meg Rowley: The number of things that could be at least partially solved by spending more money on it…

Guest: CBS had a story with how GMs feel about the virtual winter meetings, and some mentioned something about avoiding people in the lobby. Is that reporters, job-seekers, both?

Meg Rowley: Both, though reporters probably more actively.

Meg Rowley: Ok pals, I have to get rolling. Thanks for the good questions, and my apologies for what I didn’t get to this week. Also, next week’s chat will likely have slightly different timing. I have an appointment with the DMV (what fun). Keep an eye on twitter for timing details.

Meg Rowley: Have a great week!