Nolan Arenado Is Staying Put in St. Louis

Nolan Arenado
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Say this for the Cardinals: They do a very good job of keeping the band together. On Wednesday, the news broke that Adam Wainwright will return to the team for his 19th and final major league season. On Saturday, St. Louis revealed that Nolan Arenado has declined to exercise the opt-out clause in his contract, meaning that he will remain in the fold through 2027, making $144 million (much of it deferred) for the five-year period.

In his second season with the Cardinals, the 31-year-old Arenado set career highs in WAR (7.3) and wRC+ (151) — numbers that ranked second and fourth in the NL, respectively — and hit .292/.358/.533 with 30 homers. He made his seventh All-Star team and is a finalist to win a 10th Gold Glove; if he does win the award, he’ll tie Mike Schmidt for the second-highest total behind only Brooks Robinson (16). As he also led the NL in bWAR (7.9), and therefore edged teammate Paul Goldschmidt in both versions (Goldy had 7.1 fWAR and 7.8 bWAR), he stands a reasonable chance of winning the NL MVP award. But whether or not he does, the Cardinals couldn’t have asked for anything more from their third baseman.

When Arenado signed his eight-year, $260 million extension with the Rockies in February 2019, his contract included no-trade protection as well as the ability to opt out after the 2021 season. His relationship with the organization began to sour quite quickly after that deal came together, however, and he was traded to St. Louis in February 2021 along with $51 million in guaranteed and conditional payments. As part of the trade, he agreed to defer about $50 million, payable over the 2022–41 timespan; accepted a guaranteed salary of $15 million for 2027; and received an additional opt-out after the 2022 season. By opting out either after last year or this one, he could have saved Colorado about $20.57 million from that $51 million figure, but because he’s staying, his old team is on the hook for that money, which includes $5 million annual payments from 2024 to ’26. He’s the gift that keeps on giving to the Rockies’ beleaguered front office. Via Cot’s Contracts, he’ll receive $35 million for 2023 and ’24, and subsequent salaries of $32 million, $27 million, and $15 million.

Earlier this month, Dan Szymborski evaluated Arenado’s upcoming opt-out decision and published a six-year ZiPS projection:

ZiPS Projection – Nolan Arenado
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
2023 .282 .343 .479 547 69 154 34 1 24 88 49 72 4 127 12 5.7
2024 .277 .338 .466 513 62 142 32 1 21 80 45 66 4 123 10 5.0
2025 .272 .330 .447 486 56 132 29 1 18 72 40 61 3 115 9 4.1
2026 .263 .317 .420 457 49 120 25 1 15 63 35 54 3 105 8 3.1
2027 .256 .309 .395 425 43 109 21 1 12 54 30 46 2 96 7 2.2
2028 .249 .298 .369 374 34 93 16 1 9 42 24 37 2 86 5 1.4

The ZiPS estimate for that contract is six years and $180 million, but the Cardinals are only covering the first five of those years — over which Arenado projects to produce 20.1 WAR — and at a lower AAV ($28.8 million) even before the deferred money is taken into account. While he might have done better than that on the open market, he’s headed into his age-32 season, older than all of the other premium infielders hitting free agency such as Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner, and perhaps Xander Bogaerts, some of whom may wind up being fitted for the hot corner down the road.

Anyway, I don’t think Arenado can be faulted for playing it safe by forgoing the opt-out, particularly if it means staying in St. Louis. Where he once agreed to stick around a circus that changed directions approximately every 17 minutes, he’s now part of a model operation whose ongoing commitment to contending couldn’t be more clear. Given the sequence of events that sent him to St. Louis, it’s not hard to understand why he might value that.

Toward that end, the Cardinals have an infield that’s potentially locked into place for at least the next three seasons. Arenado is under control through 2027, Goldschmidt through ’24, and shortstop Tommy Edman through ’25; that trio alone accounted for 20.0 WAR in 2022. For second base options, they’ve also got 2022 rookies Brendan Donovan (under control though 2027) and Nolan Gorman (through 2028). Paul DeJong is also under contract for next season, but it’s unclear where he fits in the organization’s plans after a dismal .157/.245/.286 performance that included a midseason return to Triple-A Memphis that hardly fixed his problems at the plate.

Having that foundation in place allows the team to focus on other areas of need. Iván Herrera is the heir apparent to the just-retired Yadier Molina at catcher, but the 22-year-old backstop has just 22 plate appearances in the majors, and it’s tough to imagine the Cardinals heading into 2023 with him sharing a job with Andrew Knizner, who has produced a total of -1.7 WAR in parts of four seasons, including -0.3 and a 70 wRC+ in a carer-high 293 PA in ’22. The team could look to free agency, though not necessarily at the Willson Contreras end of the market; a lower-cost backstop such as Omar Narváez or Christian Vázquez seems more likely. With the August trade of Harrison Bader and the mercurial nature of Tyler O’Neill, the outfield could use fortification and the lineup some offensive insurance given that Juan Yepez will have his work cut out to replace the footprint of the now-retired Albert Pujols.

The starting pitching has Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, and Jordan Montgomery ready to go, but as Michael Baumann wrote in his analysis of the Wainwright signing, Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz have combined for just one healthy season since 2019. Those five along with various and sundry others — including Dakota Hudson and free agent José Quintana — combined for just 10.5 WAR, which ranked 16th in the majors; no starter topped Wainwright’s 2.7 WAR. Even if prospect Matthew Liberatore is ready, “he’s a pitchability fourth starter prospect,” as Eric Longenhagen summarized. This rotation cries out for a true No. 1 starter, and that’s going to require going outside the organization.

Maybe fitting Jacob deGrom at $45 million per year onto the payroll would be easier if the Cardinals didn’t retain Arenado and instead turned third base over to Donovan or Gorman. The Cardinals probably aren’t getting deGrom, though, and short of that, any free-agent pitcher sizing up this team as his next destination — Carlos Rodón, for example — is going to be happy to have Arenado behind him. Plus, he’s practically a necessity given the contact-oriented profiles of Wainwright, Mikolas, Montgomery, and Hudson.

As for Arenado: As Dan noted when he first published the projection above, that kind of production puts him into Hall of Fame territory. Even just sticking to the five years he’s under contract for, he’d climb from 19th in JAWS to ninth:

Third Base JAWS Leaders
Rk Name WAR WAR7 JAWS
1 Mike Schmidt+ 106.8 58.8 82.8
2 Eddie Mathews+ 96.1 53.9 75.0
3 Wade Boggs+ 91.4 56.4 73.9
4 Adrian Beltre 93.5 48.7 71.1
5 George Brett+ 88.6 53.3 71.0
6 Chipper Jones+ 85.3 46.8 66.0
7 Brooks Robinson+ 78.5 45.8 62.2
8 Ron Santo+ 70.5 53.8 62.1
Nolan Arenado (Projected Thru 2027) 72.3 46.2 59.3
9 Paul Molitor+ 75.6 39.7 57.7
10 Scott Rolen 70.1 43.6 56.9
11 Edgar Martinez+ 68.4 43.7 56.0
Avg of 15 HOFers at this position 68.4 43.0 55.7
12 Graig Nettles 68.0 42.4 55.2
13 Home Run Baker+ 62.8 46.8 54.8
14 Ken Boyer 62.8 46.2 54.5
15 Buddy Bell 66.3 40.5 53.4
16 Sal Bando 61.5 44.4 53.0
17 Dick Allen 58.7 45.9 52.3
18 Evan Longoria 58.1 41.9 50.0
19 Nolan Arenado 52.2 44.6 48.4
20 Darrell Evans 58.8 37.3 48.0
21 Robin Ventura 56.1 38.7 47.4
22 Manny Machado 52.0 42.5 47.3
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

Arenado is currently ninth in bWAR among third basemen through their age-31 seasons, and both his projected career and peak WARs would also rank ninth. Given that Machado, whose 7.4 fWAR this year edged Arenado, is 15 months younger (this was his age-29 season), it’s quite possible the former could surpass the latter at some point, but at this point both appear to be Cooperstown bound. That Arenado could essentially seal the deal by the end of this contract would be quite impressive.

Arenado’s return isn’t a total surprise, but it has to be welcome news for the Cardinals and their fans, particularly as they’re still stung by their two-and-through ouster at the hands of the Phillies in the Wild Card Series. Their to-do list as they head into the offseason is significant, but Arenado’s return increases the likelihood that they’ll get another shot at October glory in some form or another in 2023.





Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jay_jaffe... and BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.

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TKDCmember
1 year ago

There was an article not long ago on this topic, and I don’t want to rehash those conversations, but I don’t see how this makes sense other than Arenado basically giving the Cardinals a hometown discount that also sticks a knife in the team that wronged him. Arenado is going into age 32 season, just as Freddie Freeman was, and he “took” a deal that was worse than the one Freeman turned down (the Braves offer, when factoring deferred money).

The idea that Arenado would not do better than this in free agency is absolutely crazy. The only rationale for this is Arenado wants to enjoy his off-season and he doesn’t mind leaving some money on the table that also might help his team bring in other pieces to run things back.

Last edited 1 year ago by TKDC
scotth855member
1 year ago
Reply to  TKDC

Couldn’t agree more. Even if he wants to stay and doesn’t want to risk the open market, I don’t see how he couldn’t have gotten the Cardinals to sweeten the pot. (especially since the Cardinals aren’t even paying all of his contract!)

Maybe they tack on a year or two at $20-$30 million, depending. They could even make it a player option, that way if the Cardinals aren’t competitive then (which seems unlikely, but you never know) that way he could go sign a one year deal with a competitive team and chase a WS. And if stinks by then, he can just opt in and make some more guaranteed money.

We never know what goes on behind closed doors, but it seems like Arenado’s team really failed at negotiating by not getting at least something.

HappyFunBallmember
1 year ago
Reply to  scotth855

Maybe what they got was a “Here’s what we’re going to spend that money on” promise from a team that can be trusted to actually deliver it.

scotth855member
1 year ago
Reply to  HappyFunBall

But does that make sense when we’re talking about tacking on a year at the end of the deal? That shouldn’t stop them from spending any money right now.

HappyFunBallmember
1 year ago
Reply to  scotth855

Sure it can. If the options are (a) tack a year on the end or (b) opt-out and see what the market brings, and the FO says “look, we’re not going to bump your contract. Go FA if you must, but if you do you’re going to miss out on ____ and ____ that we’re doing here to win”.

Then the $300M man decides he’s got generational wealth and playing somewhere that makes him happy and gives him a WS shot almost every year is worth more than another year or a few more million.

Just because you have leverage for more doesn’t make it a failure to not use it.

John Wickmember
1 year ago
Reply to  scotth855

Who’s to say they didn’t try?

“We think your current contract pays you fairly for your production. We would welcome you back for the next five years but understand it is your right to test the market if you wish.”

The Cardinals aren’t going to be interested in giving away extra years when Aernado is going to be 38+. Nor should they be.

scotth855member
1 year ago
Reply to  John Wick

Of course they aren’t, that’s why you use the leverage of an opt-out to get more money. He’s coming off the best year of his career and you can’t swing that into anything with the leverage of an opt out? Bad negotiating imo

Francoeursteinmember
1 year ago
Reply to  scotth855

Maybe the extra $30-50 million doesn’t matter that much to him? He’s set up for several generations and I don’t blame him one bit.

John Wickmember
1 year ago
Reply to  scotth855

You’re vastly overrating the value that leverage has — he’s got a market-rate deal in hand for the next 5 years.

“We’re gonna opt out unless you give us an extra year and $25M.”

“Shame to hear that, wish you the best. Please stay in touch and let us know if you’re not getting what you want out there.”

teddyrugbymember
1 year ago
Reply to  scotth855

You don’t know how Arenado defined his interests. The result suggests that maximizing his salary was not his goal.

The Cardinals are a good spot for him. They have a weak division, a strong team, tons of young talent, and they have Arenado on a subsidized contract. The Cardinals have said they are raising payroll, and the savings on Arenado give them extra money to spend.

MorboTheAnnihilator
1 year ago
Reply to  scotth855

Pretty sure the conversation was Arenado saying you’re raising payroll to investing in the roster or I’m walking. Because almost as soon as Mo came out and said that payroll was going up the announcement that he was came out

John Wickmember
1 year ago
Reply to  TKDC

I don’t agree with the idea that it’s obvious he left money on the table here, and don’t find this outcome mysterious in the least.

He’s 32 and has 5/$144 waiting for him, it’s far from a given he beats that on the open market.

TKDCmember
1 year ago
Reply to  John Wick

It’s not a given, but it’s damn close to one. Freddie Freeman was 6 months older, plays first base, and had to negotiate after a blackout that led up until 2 weeks before the season started. If Arenado’s agent couldn’t beat 5/$144 million (with deferrals), he should be fired… into the sun.

John Wickmember
1 year ago
Reply to  TKDC

I think you’re pinning far too much predictive power on a single contract (albeit an admittedly analogous one) and underselling Freeman’s consistency and better bat.

Could he have beat it? Sure. Close to a given? No way. Have you watched how older players, even elite ones, have fared the last few offseasons?

TKDCmember
1 year ago
Reply to  John Wick

Care to provide an example? I can’t think of a elite free agent hitter under 33 that didn’t get paid. Marcus Simien was 5 months younger than Arenado and got $175 million. Arenado is better with a longer track record.

But I get it. Every year the top free agents generally blow past what the crowd sourced medians are, and half the people pick less than those. If I were a GM I might be weary of giving Arenado more than what he’s getting, but at least 1/30 will have a very optimistic view. And that’s who signs him.

tung_twista
1 year ago
Reply to  TKDC

As a hypothetical example,
if you are Arenado, would you prefer
A. $126M from the Cards and $16M from the Rockies ($144M total) for the next 5 years
or
B. $150M from the Cards for the next 5 years?
I don’t think Arenado needs to be too vindictive to prefer A over B,
especially with one thing his career lacking being a deep postseason run.

TKDCmember
1 year ago
Reply to  tung_twista

I literally made the exact point about Arenado preferring to hurt the Rockies. But that $144 million is worth a lot less with deferrals and I think he could have gotten a lot more than $150; Freeman’s deal has to be the starting point and he could bargain for more years and/or higher AAV. This may not be Jose Ramirez level, but it’s hard to not see this as big hometown discount (with the vengeance bonus thrown in as well).

catmanwayne
1 year ago
Reply to  TKDC

Nolan probably could have gotten $35M/yr on the open market this winter, but 5/$144M isn’t too far off from that AAV and he isn’t a young buck anymore at age 31-32. Hard to say if another club is willing to give him a ton more than that. The 3B market isn’t great for free agents this winter either, as a vast majority of contenders already have solid players there. If Arenado were to chase more money, he likely would’ve had to sign with a mediocre or worse team with a gaping hole that was desperate to put butts in seats. He doesn’t want to play for a non-competitive team at this stage of his career. His biggest frustration with the Rockies was that they weren’t doing the right things to build a consistently good team around him. In St. Louis, they’re much better at building and maintaining a contender. Since his family is already set for generations, why not chase a ring?

tomerafan
1 year ago
Reply to  TKDC

Yet again, I urge everyone to consider the macroeconomic environment today when considering contracts. Cash is harder to come by and more expensive than it was a few years ago, even for billionaire owners. It will affect contract terms as it is affecting every other variable in the current business climate.