Not a Moment Too Soon: Mariners Promote Kelenic, Gilbert
Earlier today, the Seattle Mariners promoted Logan Gilbert and Jarred Kelenic to their active roster; both are expected to start in tonight’s game against Cleveland. The joint moves are the latest and most decisive steps to date in Seattle’s rebuild, and mark the next phase in the Mariners’ quest to construct a contender around a nucleus of homegrown talent.
This is undoubtedly a big day for the Mariners and their fans. As you probably know, the team owns the longest playoff drought in major American sports, a streak now in its 20th year. In those two decades of fits and starts, aborted tear-downs and calamitous collapses, Seattle has teased fans with young and talented rosters before. But while thereās never any guarantee that bluechip farmhands will live up to their billing, this era has a different feel to it. The current regimeās player development staff already has a few wins under their belt, and Seattleās farm system is deeper than in previous rebuilding cycles, particularly when it comes to premium position players: In Kelenic and Julio RodrĆguez, the Mariners have a pair of prospects with legitimate star potential.
Thereās not much I can tell you about Kelenic that Eric Longenhagen hasnāt covered already. We have him as the gameās fourth-best prospect right now, a player who projects as a plus bat and one who may have muscled his way into plus power as well. Mariners fans will find much to salivate over in Ericās full remarks, but as a brief teaser: āKelenic rakes. His feel for contact, strength, and mature approach combine to make him a lethal offensive threatā¦ I expect him to come up in 2021 and be an immediate impact player.ā Weāll talk more about all of the learning and developing and maturing he did in his six games down in Tacoma later. For now, suffice to say that his spring and Triple-A appearances did nothing to damage his stock.
Gilbert, who ranks 35th on the Top 100, has a short minor league track record, but the limited reports we have suggest that heās also ready for the big leagues. The high-floor righty pitched well in last weekās apparently developmentally necessary outing in Tacoma, striking out five in as many innings while missing 11 bats, mostly on the fastball. Heāll be a breath of fresh air for anyone a little tired of 95-and-a-slider types with mediocre control, as he gets by with good command of a deep arsenal rather than overpowering stuff. As Eric noted in Gilbert’s Top 100 writeup, “Even though it only sits 93-94, Gilbert’s fastball is his best pitch, and the way he most effectively whiffs hitters, though maybe his changeup will show some late development. While all of Gilbert’s secondary pitches are average and flash above, I think his command will enable them to play above their raw grades…” As with Kelenic, Gilbert may not be Seattleās best player on his side of the ball quite yet, but heās probably close and he should add a dash of stability to the teamās intriguing but volatile rotation.
In both cases, the Mariners need the help. Even with Kyle Lewis back from the Injured List, Seattleās lineup is disturbingly short and left field in particular has been a gaping hole. Mariners left fielders are batting .164/.276/.314 this year, and if anything they’ve looked worse than that, as Jake Fraleyās five-game experiment of stapling the bat to his shoulder and hoping for the best helped buoy that line considerably. As a team, the Mās are hitting just .208/.285/.372. They have the second lowest wOBA in the league and have only scored four runs since April 23. That last part isnāt actually true, but it passes the smell test for anyone whoās been watching the team in recent weeks. A league average hitter would belong in the top half of this lineup, and thereās every reason to think Kelenic can hit better than that.
Gilbertās arrival is also a welcome development, as Seattleās original six-man rotation is suddenly light on bodies. James Paxton is out for the year, and Marco Gonzales, Nick Margevicius, and Ljay Newsome are also on the IL. Yusei Kikuchi is one of the most fascinating pitchers in the sport right now, but behind him, Seattleās rotation is thin and hasnāt been very good. If he pitches well out of the chute, Gilbert can stake his claim to a rotation spot for years to come.
We donāt know if Kelenic and Gilbert will translate seamlessly to the majors. The leap to the highest level is incredibly difficult, and prospect forecasting remains more art than science. But while we canāt say for sure that these arrivals will rejuvenate Seattleās season, on paper these two give the Mariners a better chance to win games than the unit theyāve been running out all year. On talent, Kelenic at least should have broken camp with the big league club. That heās been held back for financial, not competitive reasons barely needs mentioning.
Mention we will though, even as the discussion surrounding service time manipulation remains as tedious as ever. I have no new ground to break here, and I suspect most readers long ago bunkered into their respective camps on this issue. As has been the case for years, service manipulation is a cold but financially sensible business practice, at least in the short run. The long-term benefits are harder to tease out, and the practice is morally dubious and antagonistic to the competitive integrity of the game, but again, none of this is new.
Still, while the broader contours of the service time manipulation conversation are tiresome and familiar, the Mariners deserve special scrutiny. Around the league, the verbal winks and nods and comments from club officials about how top farmhands need more minor league time to work on their defense or baserunning have been trite for years, but in most places team executives still bothered to fake it for the cameras. In Seattle, not only did former President and CEO Kevin Mather brag about his plan to hold Kelenic back (among other things), but the front office rolled out the suppression playbook even after he got caught saying it. When majority owner John Stanton referred to Matherās comments as āunfortunateā and stated that the Mariners āmust be, and do, better,ā itās clear that he wasnāt talking about doing right by the organizationās players.
In the aftermath of Matherās remarks, it took only a few days for general manager Jerry Dipoto to claim that Kelenicās service time wasn’t getting manipulated (even though the team had admitted on video to manipāyou know, never mind) while also suggesting that the idea of service manipulation for a player so young was absurd: āIām not sure how you construe service-time manipulation with a 21-year-old who has played 20 games above A ball and has not yet achieved 800 plate appearances as a professional player.ā
Juan Soto didnāt hit either of those benchmarks prior to his debut, but I digress; this was never a good-faith argument, as the Mariners themselves have now confirmed in their actions. Three months and all of six minor league games later, the Mariners have their extra year of team control, and Kelenic is on his way to Seattle.
Time will tell whether theyāve poisoned the well on future contract dealings. Kelenic has expressed his frustration with Seattle’s approach to negotiations, lamenting that he was only held down because he wouldn’t sign an extension prior to debuting, as Evan White did last season. The Mariners deny the charge, with all the credibility of a chocolate-lipped child who insists they haven’t raided the cookie jar. In any case, the odds of a team-friendly extension donāt look particularly good.
In the years ahead, we’ll see how that relationship plays out. For now, the Mariners are running their best team out on the field, and we can turn our focus back to the diamond. The arrival of Kelenic and Gilbert signals the opening of Seattle’s competitive window. For the team faithful forced to wait 20 years and then a touch longer, it comes not a moment too soon.
Brendan covers prospects and the minor leagues for FanGraphs. Previously he worked as a Pro Scout for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
As a M’s fan, I’m exciting to see if the new crop is just Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero v2, or something to truly hope around. As a baseball fan, I’d love to see an analysis of whether players whose service time was manipulated ended up more or less likely to sign extensions with their original teams. Damaging the franchise’s relationship with young talent just to squeeze another year of profits is, as a fan, infuriating.
I wonder if it’s a two-way street with some of these players that get their service time manipulated. Like from the get-go you know a prospect like Kelenic is going to chase the big money, so you game the clock to get that extra year.
If you’re going to trade the guy before his FA clock runs out, you probably don’t care about his feelings toward you (which is my impression of perspective of most ownerships/front offices)
What’s interesting is Kris Bryant’s service time issue has now worked in his favor. He would have been a free agent coming off the season of Covid, and he would have been coming off his worst season due to injuries. Now, he’s positioned to be a free agent when teams have greater financial clarity and looks to be having his best season in years. It doesn’t change the overall issue, and the fact that the MLBPA has allowed this to happen, but it is an interesting side note.
Donaldson got 1 year and like 25 when he was older and coming off an injury. Bryant could have found a similar “show me” deal
They are at least both Super 2 eligible I believe, that I guess being the Mariners middle ground to being reasonable (if Super 2 even exists as a thing after the next round of player negotiations).
The timetable on prospects like Kelenic (and even moreso Julio) is crazy to predict right now. Covid slowed the process down, but in a way it kind of sped it up as well.
The manipulation here is in the Kris Bryant, “get an extra full season before FA”, pile and not the “avoid Super-Two (extra arbitration year)” pile.
Wouldn’t Kelenic have a decent grievance case to get the service year back anyway? Or was the precedent set with Kris Bryant too damning for all players?
Has anyone ever won a service-time grievance?
You’d think if he could use the Mather statement as evidence, as well as the brevity of his duration in the minor leagues and not called up for injury reasons (Gilbert needed with rotation holes from Newsome, Paxton, Margevicious, etc.), he’d have a better shot than pretty much anyone else who’s been gamed like this.
Still tough. Poor performance in LF, as noted In the post, could easily be cited.
Gilbert just turned 24 too, quality age to get extensive ML work in for a SP. His 2019 was maybe a little underrated, showed all the skills
He was very good in his one AAA start too.
I wholeheartedly agree with the criticism of the blatant service time manipulation in especially Kelenic’s case, but it would have been nice to have some more actual analysis/discussion of these guys as players than just a sentence or two here and there. Gilbert in particular seems to have undergone some real changes in the past year-plus, and I’ll be curious to see how that translates to the bigs!
Service time “maximization.” There are two sides to the story. It’s up to the MLBPA to address this in the next CBA. They haven’t really cared enough. Will that change? In other words, is this an issue they want to fight for with all the others that could be higher on their list? Remember, in negotiation, if you take something from one side, you’re expected to give something back. There’s a solution here that likely can work for both sides. I’m not sure what it is, but I sure hope the MLBPA has been giving it plenty of thought.
Beyond that, the Evan White situation does show the downside. He probably wasn’t ready. Well, let’s be honest, he wasn’t ready, and there’s an non-zero chance the early call up could hurt him developmentally for a long time. In Kelenic’s case, they were not necessarily manipulating service time as much as they were dangling a carrot hoping to buy favor with him by getting him to sign a MLB contract with the promise of being called up early. I suggest that’s not service-time manipulation the way it’s often presented.
Yes
Lol it’s worse. What kind of mental contortions do you have to make up to justify this nonsense? They offered him an early career extension because they think he’s ready and they want cheap cost certainty, then by not calling him up anyways they’re giving away that it’s punishment for not accepting their raw deal.
He’s in the big leagues at age 21. I don’t understand this at all. It seems delusional to me. He’s a potentially very solid ballplayer but no slam dunk to impact anything this year. Trammel was a top prospect as well, and played well this spring. Much ado about nothing, to me.
They are two different calibers of prospect entirely, and we have all the context of the previously offered pre-debut extension and Mather comments. This is not difficult.
I mean, they didn’t end the service time charade. There was nothing learned in a one week minor league sample that wasn’t present in spring training. If anything, the Mariners perpetuate the service time charade by calling them up practically as soon as they could while manipulating an extra year.
Why are fans outraged by this, if they even are? Many fans are the ones who even argue to keep the player down for a few extra weeks. It’s built right into the CBA. Both sides know it’s there, wink, wink. Fix it if it’s truly an issue. I almost feel like it’s something writers and agents like to talk about, but there doesn’t seem to be much pressure to change it.
I’m curious to see how this will be addressed in the new CBA. On one hand, it’s not *that* big of an issue, but on the other hand what exactly do players have left to bargain with? The owners have literally gotten everything they wanted. Salary cap (de facto, but teams are treating it like a salary cap), draft caps, IFA caps, etc. The players in return got… nothing in particular? Salaries have remained stagnant for a long time. The Yankees were running higher payrolls nearly 20 years ago. Contrary to popular belief, the Yankees and every large market team spending money is good for baseball. Even the draft caps aren’t good for baseball. That’s a part of what made baseball interesting. You could offer any draft pick any amount to get him out of his commitment. Imagine if the Athletics offered Kyler 30M to get out of his football commitment? Maybe he signs.
The only thing substantial players have left to bargain with is going on strike (which isn’t really a bargaining chip) and expanded playoffs. Expand playoffs and things get exponentially worse. Why spend money when you can win 86 games and maybe make the playoffs? Do the Blue Jays spend 100M on George Springer? I don’t think so.. but maybe. The players are in a bad situation and a lockout might be the best solution. It’ll be bad for the short term for MLB, but long term it’ll be good. The owners are trying to destroy baseball and nickel and dime the players every step of the way.
Yeah pretty much all of this. The owners and Commissioner unfortunately donāt have the best long term interest of the game at heart… rather they seem motivated by short term financial wins. Theyāve also got to look at ways to make the game interesting again. This upcoming negotiation is going to be a big mess tho I fear, and judging by recent owner/PA conflicts, no one is going to win this time.
Let’s be real, there is nothing they can put in writing that teams can’t find a loophole around. Unless you want to push for something really out of the box that the league will never agree to and the MLBPA doesn’t even want, like everyone becoming a free agent at 29. The more we talk about this in the comment section on fangraphs the more I am convinced that any half-measure will fail, and they need to focus on something else.
But given that the MLBPA consistently misdiagnoses what ails them, I fully expect them to push for a resolution that won’t work instead of just raising the minimum salary / arbitration reform / something that would actually be useful.
Why are we complaining about something that is built into the game? They missed 5 weeks of the season. Their service time keeps the player in the same city an extra year. Parity for smaller franchises is necessary for competition. Anyway, the contracts these guys get in the long run usually are so ridiculous they end up being overpaid. It just seems like we are worrying about the player’s right to be greedy. Fans should care about watching their team, and not about the player’s wallets. If you don’t care about a billionaire’s wallet, why are you caring about a millionaire’s wallet? Seems silly to get involved. Anyway, I am very happy the wait wasn’t long! Can’t wait to see Kelenic and Gilbert tonight!!
Not a word about the blatant manipulation of Taylor Trammell’s service time? I am personally outraged.
It’s kept me awake at night.
Downvoted Mike Dās post by mistake and it wonāt let me undo it on my phone.
I can only imagine how big the service time manipulation shitstorm will be once it’s Wander Franco’s turn to “work on his defense.”
The Rays might even keep him down past super two deadline of *next* year. As a super two, it makes a huge difference in salary if he’s elite. The Rays simply do not care and are known for keeping players in AAA for a long time.
Yeah, no chance Wander is in the minors all year
I’d like to think so. But if he’s not tearing the cover off the ball, I doubt the Rays call him up. If he’s simply good for his age, I don’t think it happens. The Rays are unbelievably cheap. ARB1 guys are too expensive for the rays. They will play this out as safely as possible. The Rays know they’re probably only going to have him for 4, maybe 5 years. Doesn’t really matter to them if it’s from 20-25, or ages 21-26. The Rays won’t stomach a 10M ARB1 salary. And if they do for one year, he’ll be gone the next.
I suspect we’ll see Wander this year.
Realistically? They should have punted on Adames in the offseason and promoted Taylor Walls. Not only would they have sold high on Adames (which anyone looking at that BABIP could have figured out was his high point), but they also would have been able to justify keeping Franco down another year while they evaluated Walls.
But now they’re both at AAA and Franco’s profile is waaaaay higher profile than Walls. Even though Walls is probably more ready right now, if they promote Walls first they’re going to get raked over the coals. And, on top of that, unless Adames has the mother of all turnarounds (which probably only happens if they only play him on the road from here on out) he’s probably going to get non-tendered. Memo to Rays: You can trade players both before they hit arbitration, and afterwards as well!
Adames had a 4 war year in 2019, and isn’t 26 yet. He’s been an above average offensive and defensive performer for about 2 full seasons of playing time now. It would seem more likely than not that he will start to play better as the summer goes along.
Adames was elite through the first 2 months of 2020 as well before cratering in September & the postseason. He’s been ass so far to start this year but it’s understandable that they’ve given him as much run as they have, to say nothing of his personality/popularity on the team.
Only 4 wins if you take DRS at face value, which is probably not a good idea (DRS has some very extreme ideas about how much defensive value someone can contribute). And if you think that he’s going to keep running .380 BABIPs like he did in the abbreviated 2018 and 2020 seasons then sure, you keep him. But you’d be wrong.
The issue for Adames, as someone pointed out, is that he had a change to his eyesight in between 2019 and 2020 and the glare at the Trop makes it so that he’s swinging blind at home. That’s why his K rates exploded. He’s fine on the road, and was in 2020 as well. But the Rays clearly just ignored every warning sign and piece of news.
So, FG’s puts his 2019 at 3 War. That seems about right. At the least he’s been league average with the bat, for a player not just a SS, and at least a solid big league average at SS.
You make a good point with the home thing and the vision, but how do you assume that the Rays ignored this? Maybe the poor Sept and Postseason effected the market to trade him? Maybe they can’t predict the future, and banked on a hard working player having a good 2021? Maybe they will still be right.
Agree.
Adames’ glove might be good but there’s just not enough potency with the stick. He has power – 17.1% HR/FB career – but for whatever reason he needs massive BABIP help to bat higher than .250, and his plate discipline has been a disaster the past 2 seasons. He’s basically Javier Baez with 50-grade pop instead of 65-grade pop.
does the mere arrival of two top prospects constitute the opening of a competitive window? wouldn’t that start when the team is actually decent for the first time, like let’s say they finish a few games above .500 next season, wouldn’t it then be more appropriate to say that the window had been opened? regardless of the semantics, I’m beyond excited to finally see these players in the bigs. exciting time to be a mariners fan.
Guys…the service time manipulation argument is so tedious. It’s the same thing over and over. Aren’t you guys tired of this yet? The mutually agreed upon CBA allows for this. There is a strong financial incentive for owners to utilize it to their advantage. We all agree it should be fixed in next round of negotiations. Do we really have to relitigate it every week??
What could someone like Kelenic do? Like in real life. Could he demand a trade, which he would not receive, and then just ‘accidentally’ forget how to play baseball when he gets to MLB until he gets traded? It still won’t give him his service time back but I’m just thinking here, what can he do? He should go make a mockery of the team that manipulated him. Stand in the right hand batters box swinging lefty or something equally ludicrous.
Iām exciting to see if the new crop is just Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero v2, or something to truly hope around
Thank’s You
Is it just a service time thing though? It certainly plays a role but if it was just for service time he could have been called up a month earlier after those two weeks or so to get an extra year.
Kelenic had a 133 wRC+ in 2019 in 21 games as a 19-yr old; about what you’d expect from a Bluechip, but not the type of line to force a club’s hand. Then 9 games in 2021 at AAA, then a promotion as a 21-yo. Does not feel like manipulating service time. As far as the bat goes, my gut feeling is he settles in as a .260/.330/.470 hitter… an Adam LaRoche type (except faster). Adam was a ~110+ wrC+ career bat, with some excursions into the 120s. A very solid regular.
As far as Gilbert goes: In 2019 at AA he threw up a 3.9 xFIP in 50IP as a 22-year old throwing to 19-year olds like Kelenic. That is… not ideal. So-so velocity, not particularly athletic, “Command” over “Stuff”. Is he a carbon copy of the Phillies’ Spencer Howard? The current profile feels like “3.74 ERA / 1.28 WHIP”. Maybe the Change or Slider takes a step, but that’s not a given.
If Kevin Mather had not said what he said in his public career suicide moment, then yeah, what is there to complain about? Kelenic lost the chance to prove he is ready for the promotion when COVID cancelled the 2020 minor league season. Mariners have had some big fails over-promoting players. Out of spring training they needed a CF, not a corner OF and in Trammel they had a prospect with AAA experience. Didn’t work out, but I don’t fault the logic or the process. Kelenic is getting the benefit of the doubt right now, along with the risk of being overmatched, with this call-up after virtually zero high minor league experience.
Franimal 1, Gilbert 0 in what should be the first of many more of this fun matchup. Gilbert looked like a mixed bag to me — whoever compared him to Canning was not wrong. My biggest concern was the 4 seam looked straight. They were sitting on it a little bit early when it was 96, with lots of fly outs and Reyes’s dead CF bomb. Then after 2-3 innings, although the heater lost a few mph (not great!), he started commanding his slider better and demonstrated the potential more. Also: Reyes is so great!
Turns out, no charade. 1) Both stunk, looks like they could use some more AAA experience lol 2) Why in the world would these teams waste a year of super valuable service time, on a .500 club, for two players who aren’t impact players yet? 3) The Seattle Mariners did not make the service time rules.
So tired of this line of reasoning. If these two players become valuable contributors this year, then I’ll apologize, but even then…if they turn out to be great immediately, thats more reasons to keep them salary-controlled for another year of their prime years, no? I live in Seattle. I’m excited to watch them play, but I’m not delusional about their current ability to help the M’s win or of the quality of this team. Everything (to me) points to now being the perfect time to give them a look, not sooner.
Regarding Wander I also could even see it being next year Especially with Brujan having such a strong start in the minors.
The Rays have a need at the position with adames struggling but Brujan covers the same positions and while he looked like a contact and speed kind of slapdick prospect he already has hit 4 homers in 7 games and while I don’t think that pace is real I think if he developed into a 20 Homer guy with his speed and strong k-bb% he could be a Ben zobrist type and leapfrog wander in the depth chart.
Now ultimately wander still has higher upside (and floor) but Brujan could be good enough and this gives the Rays opportunity to save service time and also work on optimizing his Launch angle a little (his GB rates are not outrageous but a little on the high ish side and the Rays might want to get it in the ideal high 30s% range before calling him up to maximize his potential.
This year so far it looks better as it is in the low 30s after being mid to high 40s but obviously the sample size means nothing in batted ball data so maybe the Rays want to see if this is real.
Don’t get me wrong even with a mid 40s GB rate Franco is a star but if he raises that to a high 30s GB rate he can be an acuna or Soto level of superstar hitter as Soto also was a low LA guy who raised that a little (still low ish LA but not super low anymore) and became a super power guy instead of a great hitter who hits like mid 20s homers.
Now Franco could easily learn that on the job in the majors and it wouldn’t even have to be a swing change (Yelich and Soto still have a little flat-ish (more level) swings and learned the lifting more by choosing pitches that are easier to lift, I. E mostly elevated pitches) but the Rays are the team who prefer prospects to be a little “over ripe” rather than getting the last refinements in the majors to really start them in their prime and get the most out of the service time.
The nightmare for the Rays is a Giolito/moncada/Buxton situation where a guy is bad for some time while the clock is ticking and then getting good late which is why They like to keep guys down longer.
Now it is unlikely Franco struggles like Buxton or moncada but still the Rays want to finish all development before calling a guy up, they don’t care wasting a few months of prime in the minors because they don’t keep guys anyway when they are free agents so they can just as well wait a little longer.
I disagree that service time manipulation is built into the system. A team is supposed to have their best 26 on the MLB roster.
But I’m also not sure that Soto is a great example of young players being ready without much minor league experience. I don’t think there are many like him.
I dont understand why Fangraphs writers are collectively apoplectic about service time delays. Ballclubs, like all of us, respond to incentives, whether that involves doctors writing prescriptions, taxpayers buying homes or teams holding players down on the farm an extra six weeks. If you dont like the practice, blame the people who negotiated the contract, not the companies acting in what they perceive as their best interests.
I’d put better than 50-50 odds on Kelenic wining a service time manipulation grievance. The fact that the former gm admitted to it and then the team followed that up with a 6 game waiting period is pretty damning evidence.
With 19 games at AA prior to the 6 AAA he just played? Not a chance of winning that argument. Bryant killed it in AAA and lost his case. Giving a win to Kelenic would be like saying everyone who raked for 19 games in AA has earned a call up (if they have lots of hype).