If you don’t look too closely, it’s easy to see Brad Hand at the top of the ERA and WAR leaderboards for relievers and shrug. He’s an excellent reliever, of course; he hasn’t had an ERA above three since adding a slider after the 2015 season. When Cleveland traded Francisco Mejia for him (and Adam Cimber) last summer, they weren’t adding two generic middle relievers; Hand was the hottest commodity on the relief-pitching market for a reason.

There’s nothing too surprising about a good reliever continuing to be good. Hand struck out 35% of the batters he faced last year; he’s up to 39% this year, which is better but not obscenely so. If you don’t look at Hand’s batted ball data, in fact, you might think nothing has changed. The fact that I wrote that, though, means that you should look at his batted ball data; something jumps out immediately there. Take a look at this graph of Hand’s groundball rate by year:

What the… Brad Hand has the lowest GB% in baseball this year, and it’s the lowest by a lot. His 9.7% mark is less than half the next-lowest rate. The distance between Hand and second-place Jeffrey Springs is the same as that between Springs and 23rd-place Roenis Elias. That’s quite a change for a pitcher who had run a higher-than-average groundball rate the last three years.

The first thing to ask when seeing a split as extreme as this is “Is it April?” Now, while it’s not April, it’s still early in the season, particularly for a reliever. Hand has appeared in 16 games this year, so let’s take a look at his groundball rate over every 16-game stretch since 2016:

Yeah, okay, something’s up.
Read the rest of this entry »

In his first week in Philadelphia, Bryce Harper came out firing on all cylinders. He homered in three of his first four games, including a long blast (and majestic bat flip) in his first game back at Nationals Park, where he was greeted with a chorus of boos.

But since Harper’s first five games of the 2019 season, he’s been hitting like one of the worst hitters in baseball. That is, before he broke out in a big way last night, going 2-for-3 with a single, walk, and grand slam. But, in a much larger sample of 128 plate appearances between when the Nationals series ended and last night, Harper had slashed just .185/.313/.343 with as many home runs (three) as he had in his first 23 plate appearances in those first five games. The 80 wRC+ he put up during that stretch ranked 201st out of the 283 hitters with at least 50 plate appearances. Harper was not only failing to hit like a superstar, he was actually hitting like one of the worst players in the league. Read the rest of this entry »

Madison Bumgarner’s reputation as a pitcher wasn’t burnished during the regular season. Bumgarner has been mostly very good as a starter prior to October. From 2011 through 2016, he averaged 212 innings and 3.9 WAR per year. During that time his 23.3 WAR places him ninth among major league starters, which is more a low-level ace than a dominator in the form of a Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer. No, it was in three postseasons that Bumgarner forged his reputation, pitching another 100 innings across three playoff seasons and three championships, including earning NLCS and World Series MVP honors in 2014. With the Giants unlikely to contend this season, Bumgarner’s value to the club more likely lies as a trade chip than a bringer of championships. After struggling the last two seasons, Bumgarner is pitching better in 2019, but whether he’s back to his old level of success remains to be seen.

We are still just seven Bumgarner starts into the season, but there is a bit of optimism. In his last start, Bumgarner threw the ball harder than he has in some time on the way to six innings of one-run ball against the Dodgers during which he struck eight against just two walks. The velocity wasn’t just encouraging, it was harder than he’s thrown in years.

Other than a few starts in early 2017 before he was hurt, Bumgarner hasn’t thrown the ball with as much velocity as he did the other night on a regular basis since the 2015 season. And it wasn’t just the last start that Bumgarner has pitched well. While the velocity against the Dodgers was new, in his last four starts, Bumgarner has struck out 27 batters against just three walks in 24.2 innings for a 1.84 FIP. That four-game FIP is the best Bumgarner has put together since the 2015 season and nearly a full run lower than any stretch last year.

Bumgarner is pitching better than the last few seasons, but to get some idea about how much better, let’s take a baseline and compare Bumgarner over three different periods, plus the last four starts as a bonus. First, let’s look at some numbers most readers at FanGraphs should be familiar with. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2019 Baltimore Orioles are not very good at baseball. This should be no shock to anyone who has watched the Orioles play baseball during the last two seasons. Finally starting into a long-overdue rebuilding phase, this is a state of affairs that will likely last for several years. If you’re going to be terrible at something, however, I’m an advocate of being the best at being terrible at that thing. The 1962 Mets, with the most losses in modern major-league history, were lousy enough to become beloved in a way the 2003 Tigers or 1935 Braves weren’t. And there’s one lousy thing the 2019 Orioles are great at: allowing home runs.

Now, every team allows home runs these days, so standing out from the pack is even harder than it usually is. The Orioles have allowed 75 home runs in just 35 games, a frightening pace; it’s always a Home Run Derby when the orange-and-black are in town. Notice I said pace, Giants fans; your staff isn’t exactly amazing at keeping the ball in the park.

Read the rest of this entry »

2:01

bob:

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Matt Chapman is starting to come into his own as a hitter. Known primarily for his defense — he won a Gold Glove last year in his first full big-league season — the 26-year-old third baseman is slashing .295/.384/.597. He leads the Oakland A’s in all three of those categories, while his nine home runs rank second, behind Khris “Mr. .247” Davis. Moreover, he’s displaying far better discipline than he did a year ago. Along with upping his walk rate, Chapman has nearly halved his K rate. Slowly but surely, he’s becoming an offensive force.

Chapman talked about his offensive approach, which includes looking for pitches middle, middle-away, when the A’s visited Fenway Park last week.

David Laurila: I start a lot of interviews with this question: Do you consider hitting to be more of an art, or more of a science?

Matt Chapman: “Baseball, in general, is kind of like a fine line. So it’s a little bit of both. It’s an art in the sense that everybody is unique — everybody has the things that work for them — and you have to let your natural ability take over. But then there are the mechanics and the numbers. That’s the science part of it. Both are important. You can’t live and die with either.

“For me, the science part is that I see little tiny things in my swing, on video, that need to be mechanically sound. When I’m not feeling as good as maybe I should, I’ll go to the film. I don’t dissect every little thing, but there are a few things I look at. Am I on time? Am I getting in the right hitting position? Sometimes when I struggle, it’s because I’m getting a little too pull-happy. So, is my barrel up, or am I opening up and my barrel is dropping?”

Laurila: Are you looking at more video, and data, than in the past? Read the rest of this entry »

It’s amazing to write about baseball through the lens of a singular player like Mike Trout. The sheer totality of his excellence is fun in a way that just wouldn’t be true if you looked at all of his skills individually. Trout is an above-average outfielder, sure, but that isn’t all that fun by itself. He has great plate discipline — so too, though, does 2019 Jason Heyward, and he doesn’t spark the same kind of joy as Trout. No, the fun is that there’s basically no category you can come up with where Mike Trout isn’t good.

This got me to thinking: would it be fun to have a player who was like Trout, except not to quite the same degree? I don’t mean in the broad player value sense — in a way, every player in baseball is just a worse version of Trout. No, I mean someone who’s good at everything across the board in the same way that Trout is — just, a little less.

Trout hits for power, so our mystery player will need to hit for good (but sub-Troutian) power. Scratch both Joey Gallo and Jose Altuve from the list. They have to have an excellent eye at the plate and be judicious with their swings; sorry, Javier Baez, but the ride ends for you here. They need to be an above average baserunner, but not the best of the best — J.D. Martinez and Trea Turner both fall at this hurdle.

To work out this highly unscientific study, I started with stats from 2017-present for everyone who qualified for the batting title in at least one of the three years. This lets me cast a wide net without picking up someone whose prime isn’t happening now. First, I looked for players who were worse than Trout in a few categories: ISO, OBP, SLG, BsR/PA, BB%, and K%. (At this point in the search, I learned that Trout has a higher ISO than Aaron Judge, and I mean, wow.) Read the rest of this entry »

Near the end of 2017, reports surfaced of a massive deal that would see Disney buy more than $50 billion in FOX assets, including 22 regional sports networks that broadcast the games of about half of the 30 major league baseball franchises. After a bidding war between Comcast and Disney saw the latter win out, moves needed to be made to satisfy antitrust concerns. Given Disney’s already powerful place in the market with its ESPN family of channels, one of those moves included the sale of those regional sports networks. The first domino fell in March when the Yankees agreed to buy back the YES Network at a total valuation of around $3.5 billion dollars. Now, the remaining dominoes appear to have fallen, with the Wall Street Journal first reporting that Sinclair Broadcasting Group has agreed to buy the remaining 21 networks, valued at $10.6 billion.

The networks included in the deal are as follows:

Read the rest of this entry »

Aside from the cool 1911 denim throwback uniforms worn by the home team, Sunday’s Giants-Reds game was a relatively conventional affair. The Reds ran up a 4-0 first inning lead thanks in part to a three-pitch, three-homer sequence, Luis Castillo threw some devastating changeups but also gave up a game-tying three-run homer to Buster Posey, and the Giants won, 6-5. Zzzzz, right? Monday’s game, on the other hand, featured several different flavors of wild, all of them worth savoring. Twenty years from now, somebody will do an oral history of this game, and ESPN will air a 30 for 30 feature.

Let’s start with the bees. More bzzzz than zzzzz…

You thought I was kidding? A swarm of ’em delayed the start of the game by 18 minutes, perhaps a message from above about those weird wraparound series, where teams play Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday just to mess with peoples’ circadian rhythms. Or something.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about the merits of True Wins vs. no-hitters, a Pablo Sandoval fun fact, whether most pitchers would prefer to be better than average with a higher ERA or worse than average with a lower ERA, and whether the running Royals are, in fact, fun, then (26:24) talk to author Joe Bonomo about his book about about The New Yorker’s Hall of Fame baseball writer Roger Angell, touching on Angell’s notes and writing process, his career arc and evolution, his facility with words, his memory and and recall, his attitude about changes in the game, his best and most overlooked pieces, his feelings about being labeled a baseball writer, the larger themes in his work, and more.

Audio intro: Smith Westerns, "Idol"
Audio interstitial: Jenny and Johnny, "New Yorker Cartoon"
Audio outro: Donovan, "Writer in the Sun (Demo)"

Link to Sam on the True Win
Link to video of Gore-Hamilton play
Link to video of Hamilton scoring from second on sac fly
Link to Roger Angell’s New Yorker archive
Link to No Place I Would Rather Be
Link to preorder The MVP Machine

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