Sunday Notes: The Voice of the Indians Flirted with a Pigskin Tiger

by
October 7, 2018

Tom Hamilton has been the radio voice of the Indians since 1990. Very early into that tenure there was a chance — albeit a small one — that he would move on and spend the bulk of his career elsewhere. How might that have happened? In the winter following Hamilton’s second year in Cleveland, the Detroit Tigers inexplicably informed iconic broadcaster Ernie Harwell that 1991 would be his final season in the booth.

“Ernie told me that I should apply for the job, or at least go if I got called,” Hamilton explained. “I felt uncomfortable about that — nobody wanted to see Ernie have his career end that way — but he came to me and said that I should. The Tigers did call, so I interviewed even though I didn’t really have an interest. Not only was I happy in Cleveland, I didn’t want to be the guy following Ernie.”

Rick Rizzs, who is now in Seattle, ended up getting the job. Predictably, he wasn’t well-received. While Rizzs was, and remains, a quality baseball play-by-play announcer, that means little when you’re stepping into the shoes of a legend.

Another Wolverine State sports legend made Hamilton’s reluctant interview more than worthwhile. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 1279: October, Continued

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October 5, 2018

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the difficulties of postseason scheduling, both opening games of the NLDS, a better bullpen game by the Brewers, the Rockies’ decision to pitch to Mike Moustakas, what Christian Yelich is doing differently, the composition of the Braves and the depth of the Dodgers and Astros, and Chis Sale’s history of fading down the stretch, then answer listener emails about what would happen to a manager who consistently lost in the World Series, why teams haven’t shuffled their lineups in response to the opener, Madison Bumgarner (and every other hitting pitcher) vs. Chris Davis, how quickly stats could distinguish between Chris Davis and Khris Davis, and awarding fans for throwing balls at baserunners, plus a Stat Blast about 100-loss teams beating 100-win teams.

Audio intro: The New Pornographers, "Three or Four"
Audio outro: Pink Floyd, "Free Four"

Link to Jeff’s Yelich post
Link to Ben’s Sale article
Link to the .247 shirt

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Get Ready to Watch One of Baseball’s Best Pitches

by
October 5, 2018

This is one of those marathon days of playoff baseball, where the league manages to string four important games in a row. And when you have four scheduled playoff games in a day, you can expect to see some quality pitching. Right now, literally as I’m writing this, Corey Kluber is going head-to-head against Justin Verlander. Later on, the Red Sox will give the ball to Chris Sale. Hours after that, the Dodgers will give the ball to Clayton Kershaw. The playoffs select for good teams. Good teams effectively select for good pitching. I don’t need to tell you how the playoffs work.

Kluber, Verlander, Sale, Kershaw — obviously, each of them is amazing. They’re so good, and they’ve been so good for so long, that most of you already know what they throw. You know how they work, and you know all their best weapons. You know their putaway pitches. Certain select pitchers get to that level, where fans are able to break down their repertoires. It’s a testament to their collective success. It’s not easy to get people to know so much about you. Fans often aren’t so concerned with the details.

But I can tell you that, today, there’s going to be another spectacular pitch. A spectacular pitch from an unlikely source. Kluber has that excellent breaking ball. Verlander has that excellent four-seamer. Sale has his own excellent four-seamer. Kershaw has an excellent slider. The Brewers’ Game 2 starter against the Rockies is Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin’s an anonymous starter with one dynamite weapon.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Weak Spot in the League’s Domestic-Violence Policy

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October 5, 2018

The end of the Cubs’ season came earlier than expected, with the North Siders finding themselves unceremoniously dispatched from the playoffs by the Rockies in the Wild Card Game earlier this week. Addison Russell, once regarded as vital cog in an emerging Cubs dynasty, was absent from the roster for that game, confined instead to administrative leave. The next day, Major League Baseball announced that Russell would be suspended for 40 games, including the 12 games already spent on administrative leave, to be enforced at the beginning of the 2019 season. In essence, Russell will miss all of April.

Word is already circling that the shortstop has played his last game with Chicago. Russell, for his part, agreed not to appeal. “After gaining a full understanding of the situation I have concluded it’s in the best interest of my family to accept MLB’s proposed resolution of this matter. I wish my ex-wife well and hope we can live in peace for the benefit of our child.” Part of that resolution — the one marked by the phrase “agreed not to appeal,” which appears in Manfred’s statement above — is something I’ve addressed before when discussing Roberto Osuna’s suspension.

We learn here not that [Roberto] Osuna decided not to appeal but rather that he agreed not to appeal. Osuna, in other words, effectively settled his case with MLB, agreeing to a shorter suspension in exchange for not appealing. This sort of resolution isn’t necessarily dissimilar to a plea bargain or civil settlement, both of which have their utility. It’s an open question, however, whether baseball’s accused domestic abusers ought to have a say in their own discipline, particularly when that discipline is being enforced by their employer. And Osuna’s case isn’t an isolated incident; rather, it’s standard policy. The same thing happened with Aroldis Chapman, for example.

FanGraphs’ own Jeff Sullivan arrived at a logical conclusion following the announcement of Russell’s punishment:

On one level, Sullivan’s point makes sense: Osuna received a harsher sentence than Russell, ergo Osuna must have done something worse. Because we have a firsthand account detailing Melisa Reidy-Russell’s allegations against her ex-husband, we then also (hypothetically) have some kind of baseline for the sort of penalty his disturbing behavior warrants by the terms of the league’s domestic-violence policy. The Commissioner determined that Russell violated the policy, just as he determined Osuna violated the policy. Presumably, those determinations were supported by evidence; otherwise, the players would never have agreed to not appeal the discipline.

But that leads to another problem, one to which Michael Baumann alluded recently at The Ringer:

The details of the suspension aren’t the important part of this case. In fact, this process is so common that it’s taken on a tragic roteness. The 40-game ban — which is retroactive to the start of Russell’s time on administrative leave, September 21 — will invite comments about how MLB punishes first-time PED violations more harshly than players suspended under its domestic violence policy. It also raises questions about how Russell’s case is different from that of Astros closer Roberto Osuna, who earned a 75-game suspension — does MLB believe that there’s some sort of graduated scale of badness for intimate partner violence?

Read the rest of this entry »


Division Series Live Chat – 10/5/18

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October 5, 2018
1:59
Jay Jaffe: Hello folks, and welcome to a day of baseball madness, with four Division Series games piled high starting with the Indians and Astros at 2 PM. I’m the starter today, not the opener. Hopefully I’ll be able to give you several good innings of delightful commentary.
1:59
Klubot: How much of a factor do you think Kluber’s hard hit % will be today? His rate this year is his career high
2:01
Jay Jaffe: I’m less worried about Kluber’s hard hit rate and more worried by the fact that his 7.7% drop in K rate was the majors’ largest for anybody with 150 innings last year and this one. Number two on that list? Kershaw, with a drop of 5.9%. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/season-stat-grid?position=P&seasonSt…. Both are still excellent pitchers, and perhaps the hard-hit rate for Kluber is  as indicative of a decline as the K rate is, but the rest of his numers say he’s still a vary valuable pitcher.
2:02
TJF1777: Have the Yankees ever played the Red Sox in the playoffs? Didn’t see any articles on it this week
2:02
Jay Jaffe: I can’t tell if you have the sarcasm font on or not, but to answer you in earnest: three times, all in the ALCS: 1999, 2003 and 2004.
2:02
BK: I’m just a sad Braves’ fan looking to watch some more baseball and wallow in my sorrows

Read the rest of this entry »


A Conversation with Cleveland Pitching Coach Carl Willis

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October 5, 2018

The Indians have one of the top pitching staffs in baseball. Carl Willis can’t claim all of the credit — his 2015-17 seasons were spent in Boston — but he’s certainly played a meaningful role. The veteran pitching coach has done an exemplary job since coming to Cleveland one year ago this month.

An understanding and appreciation of analytics is a big reason why. At the age of 57, Willis possesses an admirable blend of old-school acumen and the new-school applications that augment the ABCs of the craft. His resume includes a stint as a special assistant to baseball operations, as well as 15 seasons as a big-league pitching coach. Four different hurlers have captured a Cy Young Award under his tutelage.

———

Carl Willis on notable changes in the game: “There have been two major changes. The first one is that swings have changed. Because they’ve changed, how you pitch — how you attack those swings — has changed. Certainly, when I played, and when I first became a coach, it was always, ‘You’ve got to command the bottom of the strike zone. You have to pitch down. It’s money.’

“Nowadays, with the evolution of launch angle, we’re seeing the top of the strike zone, and above, becoming much more of a weapon. That’s how we’re attacking those swings. Of course, there are still pitchers who pitch at the bottom of the zone. It depends on your repertoire and, obviously, the action you get.

“Because of how hitters are being attacked now, velocity has probably become more important. But velocity doesn’t matter if you can’t command it. Nowadays hitters see velocity every day. It used to be Nolan Ryan, Doc Gooden, J.R. Richard. Those guys separated themselves with their velocity. They had other pitches as well, but they had that superior velocity. Now, every time the bullpen door opens, it’s 97-98. Hitters are acclimated to it.

“The other major change is analytics. For me, it’s really more the science and understanding of what the baseball is doing. And it’s not only how we’re able to evaluate pitchers in that regard. It’s how we can help them create some of those actions, some of that spin. And I think it’s [spin] axis more so than [spin] rate. There’s a better understanding of what a pitcher is going to be and what he’s going to have to do to succeed with what he brings to the table.”

Read the rest of this entry »


The Brewers’ Best Laid Plans Were Just Good Enough

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October 5, 2018

For eight innings, everything went as planned for Craig Counsell and his Brewers in their NLDS Game One matchup against the Colorado Rockies. Their MVP homered. A non-traditional arrangement of pitchers got them to the ninth inning with a 2-0 lead. Their All-Star closer took the mound needing to record only three outs. It was, more or less, the ideal scenario.

Then things fell apart a little. The closer faltered, and the Rockies tied the score. Counsell was forced to adjust. In the end, everything worked out anyway. The Brewers won the game on their home field and took a 1-0 lead in their best-of-five battle against Colorado. The plan, ultimately, worked.

Let’s take a look at the finer points of that plan to get a sense of Counsell’s logic and the Brewers’ strengths.

The Starter

Ever since the Tampa Bay Rays used Sergio Romo in a one-inning start back in May, the idea of the opener has spread across the league. And while Brandon Woodruff’s appearance could easily have been mistaken for another example of that strategy — Woodruff recorded many more relief appearances (15) than starts this year (4) — that’s not how Craig Counsell saw it.

Said Counsell before the start of the game on Thursday:

I think from our perspective, Woody is — he’s not a reliever. He has the ability to do more than that, if that’s what the game calls for. So that’s — one, he’s throwing the ball really well and, two, I think he has the potential to do a little more than a reliever maybe.

Whatever the case, the decision paid off: Woodruff pumped upper-90s four-seamers and two-seamers to get batters out. The sinkers were a bit of a surprise — Woodruff had only used the pitch during one appearances all season, his final one against Detroit — but were also effective. Only one batter reached base over Woodruff’s first three innings of work — a first inning walk of DJ LeMahieu — and he was erased on a caught stealing. By the end of three complete, Woodruff had produced three strikeouts against one walk while throwing 71% fastballs. But the velocity appeared to be waning, as the graph below indicates.

Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Driveline Baseball R&D Intern

by
October 5, 2018

Position: Research and Development Intern

Location: Kent, WA
Employment Details:

  • Seasonal, $2500/month.
  • No additional benefits.
  • Start Date: As early as November 1st, 2018 – no later than December 1st, 2018
  • End Date: April 1st, 2019, but exceptional applicants may be offered an extension through the summer
  • Candidates will be expected to work ~40 hours per week.
  • This is NOT a remote position. It is located in Kent, WA. No financial relocation assistance is offered, though Driveline will put you in contact with a number of affordable short-term housing options upon accepting the role, if offered.

Description:
You will spend your time on the floor checking in with athletes, monitoring their movements, answering questions and integrating with the skill-specific and High Performance teams to collect and analyze athlete data.

You’ll work on projects like:

  • Preparing athletes for biomechanical assessments via retroreflective marker placement.
  • Running assessment reports in our internal tools software and in industry-standard software like Visual3d, Motive:Body, and OpenSIM.
  • Collecting and cleaning data for existing and new research projects.
  • Filming athletes using our Edgertronic high-speed cameras, editing the videos, and organizing them for easy access by the coaches, athletes, and research team.
  • Writing blog posts and creating social media content to document findings.
  • Going through your own independent research project of your choice, from study design, to IRB approval, to data collection and analysis, and finally, publication in a peer-reviewed journal.

R&D interns at Driveline Baseball spend their entire week working on internal projects that push the limits of knowledge in the baseball training space. You will be given unparalleled access to technology that few labs in the world have access to, and you will be tasked with an independent project that will eventually be published in a peer-reviewed journal with your name attached and proper credit given (all publication fees are paid for by Driveline Baseball).

You will be given a laptop and standing desk to work at inside the research lab, on the floor, and with our athletes. This isn’t a front office “hidden” position where you crank out data and no one is counting on you – you will be interfacing daily with professional athletes.

This is an opportunity to advance your career and knowledge base while being paid.

A Great Candidate Demonstrates:

  • Quantitative skill and experience in major statistical packages, like R-Studio.
  • Previous experience with some form of biomechanical analysis software package.
  • Open source project work on GitHub or openly published preprints/blogs to review. Driveline wants to know that you have contributed in some way on your own – this internship is very self-driven and is not micromanaged. Driveline needs independent thinkers, workers, and doers who take initiative.
  • Previous experience in coaching or playing baseball. Knowledge of the game within the game results in faster on-ramping at Driveline Baseball.
  • Excellent verbal communication skills. Deliver the right message at the right time.
  • Excellent “feel.” That mix of empathy, common sense and likability that makes people trust you.
  • A mindset for growth and learning. What do you want to be better at?
  • Always organized.
  • Proactively creates solutions to problems. You can’t help but do a little weekend side-project to solve that issue that’s been bugging you.

Requirements:

  • Familiarity with Driveline’s mission, previous research, and blog posts.
  • Passion for getting it right. “Smart people know how hard it is to know something.”
  • Ability to work independently.
  • Must be able to stand for 4+ hours straight.
  • Must be able to lift 50+ pounds.

What is Not Required:
Any form of college education. Driveline cares about what you’ve done and what you’re passionate about independently, not what class load you’ve taken.

To Apply:
To apply, please fill out this Google Forms Application. Applications are due by 10/20/2018.

Following the end of the internship, candidates will be evaluated on an individual basis for full-time roles or internship extensions.

Equal Opportunity Employer
Driveline is proud to be an equal opportunity employer. All qualified applicants will receive consideration without regard to race, creed, gender, marital status, sexual orientation, citizenship status, color, religion, national origin, age, disability, veteran status, or any other status protected under local, state, or federal laws. For employees and applicants for employment who have disabilities, Driveline provides reasonable accommodation.


Effectively Wild Episode 1278: The Postseason Swing of Things

by
October 4, 2018

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan review the saber-savvy ESPN broadcast of the NL wild card game, relive the highs, lows, and pivotal/memorable moments of both wild card games, defend the bullpen game from an analytical standpoint (and criticize it from an aesthetic standpoint), and ruminate about every division series matchup. For the first time in ages, they do not discuss Willians Astudillo, although he’s always in their hearts.

Audio intro: Broken Bells, "October"
Audio outro: Amy Winehouse, "October Song"

Link to Hechavarria catch
Link to Baez-Arenado hug
Link to Jeff’s Ottavino post
Link to Jeff’s Betances post
Link to Ben’s Sale article
Link to research on the “times through the order” penalty
Link to the .247 shirt

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

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Adam Ottavino Has a Weakness

by
October 4, 2018

After a miserable 2017, Adam Ottavino has been able to rebound, establishing himself as one of the better relievers in either league. That’s why he was the Rockies’ first pitcher out of the bullpen the other day in the wild-card game in Chicago. Granted, Ottavino allowed the tying run. There wasn’t another run until the top of the 13th. The bottom of the 13th was led off by Terrance Gore.

Let’s tie this all together, you and me. Why was Gore ever in the game in the first place? He pinch-ran in the eighth for Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo had hit a two-out single. Gore came in and wasted no time.

Read the rest of this entry »


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