Is Pitch-Framing Cheating?

Remember Ryan Doumit? I’m dating myself by saying it, but back in 2005 and 2006, I was obsessed with him. He was an oft-injured catcher who could really hit. He approached a .200 ISO in back-to-back years of part-time duty in 2006-07 and absolutely destroyed the minor leagues.

But the Bucs were steadfastly against making Doumit their starting catcher, sticking him at first base and in the corner outfield. At the time, I thought the Bucs were making a serious mistake by not playing Doumit behind the plate every chance they got. I mean, the guy posted three wins on the back of a 123 wRC+ in 2008, his first full year of play. How could a team not stick that bat behind the plate?

What I didn’t appreciate at the time were the Pirates’ concerns. Ryan Doumit was an extraordinarily bad pitch-framer, a fact the Pirates knew and I didn’t. And as pitch-framing has become an increasingly important part of the game, an interesting question has emerged: is pitch-framing even legal?

https://twitter.com/Darth_Stout/status/1016715139029131265

https://twitter.com/BerniePleskoff/status/868902960415354880

This is actually a really interesting issue, for a lot of reasons — and the first of those reasons is that it forces us, first of all, to define what, exactly, pitch-framing means. What is pitch-framing, anyway? I mean, if you read this site, it’s a pretty good bet you have an intuitive understanding of what it is, but we can’t exactly take our intuition, go to baseball’s rulebook, and look that up. In order to figure this out, we need to have one, firm definition of pitch-framing.

There’s just one problem: there is no one definition of pitch-framing. Here’s proof – we can’t get lawyers, who make definitions of things for a living, to agree on a definition.

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Kyle Crick’s Return to Relevance

Growing up, the closest minor-league club to me was the Richmond Braves. This was the late 90s and many top prospects who would go on to major-league careers came through town for a season. My scorebook from those years is filled with games that included former major leaguers Andruw Jones and Bruce Chen, along with lesser luminaries such as Wes Helms and Odalis Perez. The Braves moved to Gwinnett after the 2008 season, and the Flying Squirrels — the Giants’ Double-A affiliate — would move to Richmond in 2010.

The parade of prospects slowed a bit after the Flying Squirrels arrived. Buster Posey skipped Double-A, Brandon Belt’s 2010 breakout helped propel him to a top-100 prospect. However, without question, the biggest prospect who stayed in Richmond for any length of time was Kyle Crick. He arrived in 2014 as the 32nd-best prospect in baseball according to MLB.com. He proceeded, however, to stay in town for three seasons without being promoted or demoted. Needless to say, his prospect light dimmed during that period.

When Crick was promoted to Fresno in 2017, it was more out of a need to see if he had any chance of reaching the majors that season, as he was eligible to become a minor-league free agent at the end of the year. He would eventually make it to the Giants’ bullpen and then, later, to Pittsburgh as part of the Andrew McCutchen deal.

In Pittsburgh, Crick has become a serviceable bullpen option, combining with Richard Rodriguez and Felipe Vazquez to helm a bullpen unit that ranks among the league’s top 10 in K/9, FIP, and xFIP. The success of all three has been unexpected — Crick included, despite his prospect pedigree. By leaning on his long-held strengths and gaining a modicum of control over his weaknesses, Crick has been able to end his long minor-league odyssey and has found success in the majors, albeit in a role which he had hoped to avoid.

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Scouting Patrick Sandoval, New Angels Prospect

The Angels traded 31-year-old glove-first catcher Martin Maldonado to Houston yesterday in exchange for Astros 21-year-old LHP Patrick Sandoval. The Astros signed Sandoval away from a USC commitment with a $900,000 signing bonus in 2015. He was their 11th-round pick. He has tracked through the minors at an even pace, amassing 97 strikeouts in 88 innings split between Low- and High-A this season while also reducing his walk rate to half (4.3%) of what it was last year (8.5%).

Sandoval’s fastball sits 88-92 and will top out around 94. He can really spin a 12-6 curveball, one that’s above average when Sandoval is getting on top of it. Effectively, Sandoval has an almost perfectly vertical arm slot, but the way he gets there is somewhat odd and there’s some skepticism among scouts as to the sustainability of this year’s uptick in strike-throwing. There’s enough of a changeup here for continued development in a rotation and, if everything clicks, Sandoval will be a No. 4 or 5 starter. If not, he’s a lefty with a good breaking ball and a fine bullpen candidate. It’s a fair return for a backup catching rental.

Had Sandoval gone to USC, he’d have been draft eligible this year. Comparable college lefties in this year’s draft would have been Nationals second-rounder Tim Cate from UConn, and White Sox third-rounder, Mississippi State lefty Konnor Pilkington. Cate is a better athlete than Sandoval and the breaking ball is a little better. He signed for slot a 65th overall, $986,200. Pilkington’s stuff is closer to average across the board. I’d have him behind Sandoval just on stuff. He signed for $650,000, slightly below slot at pick No. 81. I think Sandoval would have fit somewhere in that range on draft day, which means the Astros properly valued him three years ago and used an 11th-round pick to acquire a future second- or third-round talent for second- or third-round money. It also means Sandoval probably got an equal or better bonus than he would have this year, and he’s further along the developmental path than most his age-appropriate peers from the 2018 collegiate draft class.


The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

Fringe Five Scoreboards: 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013.

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion among the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, John Sickels, and (most importantly) FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel* and also who (b) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing within Longenhagen and McDaniel’s most recent update — and the updates published by Jeffrey Paternostro of Baseball Prospectus and John Sickels at Minor League Ball — have also been excluded from consideration.

*Note: I’ve excluded Baseball America’s list this year not due to any complaints with their coverage, but simply because said list is now behind a paywall.

For those interested in learning how Fringe Five players have fared at the major-league level, this somewhat recent post offers that kind of information. The short answer: better than a reasonable person would have have expected. In the final analysis, though, the basic idea here is to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

*****

Tony Gonsolin, RHP, Los Angeles NL (Profile)
This represents Gonsolin’s third consecutive appearance in this weekly exercise, and it’s possibly his most deserving. Since last Friday’s edition of the Five, the right-hander has made two starts. In 13.0 innings between them, Gonsolin recorded a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 18:3 against 50 batters.

Gonsolin’s profile isn’t the most common sort for a future major-league starter. He was a two-way player in college, not drafted till the ninth round, and features some traits on the mound (pronounced over-the-top delivery, effort) that are atypical for starters. He’s made it work thus far, however. He’s also continued to exhibit a strategies for contending with left-handed hitters, six of whom he faced in his second-to-last start (box).

Here’s a 92 mph slider to a lefty from that game for a called third strike:

And a curveball at the back foot for a swinging strike:

And a change with splitter-type action, also for a swinging strike:

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Scouting Rollie Lacy, Part of Texas’s Return for Hamels

Cole Hamels has accumulated the third-most WAR among big-league lefties dating back to 2006. Last night, was traded for a fringe prospect. A 5.20 FIP, a $6 million buyout at the end of the year, and a relatively lengthy no-trade list all limited Hamels’ value on the trade market, and the Rangers received 2017 11th-rounder ($125,000 bonus) Rollie Lacy in their swap with the Cubs.

In Lacy, the Rangers acquired a 23-year-old righty who is performing in A-ball. He has K’d 94 hitters in 80.2 innings this year, but the scouting reports indicate lesser stuff than Lacy’s strikeout rate would otherwise indicate. He’s a sinker/slider righty (60% ground-ball rate this year, which is excellent relative to the big-league average of 43%) with some cross-body mechanical deception and a fringey changeup.

On stuff, Lacy looks like an up-and-down arm. His ability to generate ground balls and the way his delivery enables his stuff to play up are possible paths toward more than that.


A Conversation with Oakland Pitching Coach Scott Emerson

An impromptu conversation will sometimes glean quality interview material, and that was the case earlier this season when I chewed the fat with Scott Emerson in the visiting dugout at Fenway Park. The Oakland pitching coach loves discussing his craft, and that fact came to the fore when an answer to a question about an individual member of the A’s staff segued into what you’re about read here. From the importance of staying closed in a delivery to the value of disrupting timing and attacking weaknesses — with boxing, bullets, and airplane analogies thrown in for good measure — Emerson had a lot to offer.

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Scott Emerson on pitching: “Some guys can create the analytic everybody is looking for with a bad delivery. What I mean by that is they bail out in their delivery and the hitters see the ball better. We can’t quantify the hitters seeing the ball, but the longer they see it — no matter what the spin rates are — the more it takes away from the effectiveness of the pitch. It gives the hitter the advantage.

“Sometimes it’s, ‘Oh, this guy can spin it,’ and people are wondering ‘Why does he have a 6.00 ERA?’ Well, he has a 6.00 ERA because he doesn’t hang onto his mechanics well enough. He exposes the ball to the hitter sooner. It’s like a boxer bailing out on a punch. If we’re boxing and I open up too much, I’m exposed and you can hit me with a left hook. But if I’m driving through you, I’m not exposing myself. I’m not giving you the opportunity to beat me up.

“For instance, when Daniel Mengden is really good, he stays closed longer. He’s down the lane, down the slope, closed, and then he explodes out of it. When he gets himself in trouble is when he wants to overthrow. His front shoulder bails out and he exposes the baseball to the hitter. That gets him in trouble.

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 7/27/18

12:00
Meg Rowley: Morning all, and welcome to the chat!

12:00
Meg Rowley: I am obviously not Jeff. We’ll be swapping chat times this week and next so that he can engage in various adventures.

12:00
CrashedDavis: more a Jaffe question, but you’re chatting: with statcast and the associated stats (plus future innovations) allowing us to much better judge over/underperformance, how are we going to evaluate that over full careers in HOF debates 15+ years from now?

12:01
Meg Rowley: Just as we have a much better understanding of who is actually good now than we did 50 years ago, I would imagine it will continue to enhance how voters think about who is worthy of induction.

12:03
Meg Rowley: I think there is a limit to how much stats like xwOBA can change that process, because ultimately the Hall is concerned with the careers guys really had, but it’ll have an effect.

12:03
Meg Rowley: I imagine it will also force us to change how many guys voters can vote for at any one time as we better understand just how amazing a lot of these guys are.

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Cubs’ Need for Quality Pitching Leads to Cole Hamels

In late July, basically every contender is in pursuit of starting pitching in some form or another, whether it’s an ace who can make an impact in the playoffs or a rotation piece who can help the club survive the duration of the season.

That’s certainly the case for the Chicago Cubs. While the club actually does currently have five experienced and healthy starters — plus Yu Darvish — what they need most is quality starting pitching. The team’s starters have put up a 4.76 FIP and accumulated just 3.0 WAR, ranking 25th in baseball and outpacing only the Reds by that measure in the National League. It has quite possibly been one of the franchise’s worst rotations ever so far. And even after accounting for Cubs’ above-average defense, the team still only places in the middle of the pack in terms of run-prevention. In order to give themselves the best possible chance of qualifying for the postseason, Chicago needed better starting pitching.

Last night, they attempted to meet that need, reaching an agreement with the Texas Rangers to acquire left-hander Cole Hamels.

In Hamels, the Cubs receive a pitcher who’s recorded a good road ERA while having performed less well in a very tough pitcher’s park. It stands to reason, as Buster Olney himself reasoned yesterday afternoon, that a change in scenery alone — to a better park, to a league without the designated hitter — might lead to much better performances for Hamels. While there might be something to that, it’s important to remember that similar sentiments accompanied Tyler Chatwood’s arrival in Chicago. Now Hamels is probably taking Chatwood’s job.

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Let’s See About a Matt Carpenter Trade

Just last week, Kiley McDaniel finished up this year’s Trade Value series. The Trade Value series represents an attempt to rank all the best assets in baseball while accounting for player skill, age, and contract status all simultaneously. One player who didn’t appear in the series was Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter, not even in the Honorable Mention section.

At that time, Carpenter was having a fine season, having recorded a 142 wRC+ and 3.2 WAR in 378 plate appearances. However, at 32 years old and with two-and-a-half seasons of control remaining on salaries of $14.5 million in 2019 and $18.5 million ($2 million buyout) in 2020, McDaniel reasonably left Carpenter off the list.

In his first eight games after the All-Star Break, however, Carpenter added 1.1 WAR to his season total, hitting .400/.500/1.100 with a 307 wRC+ during that stretch. His WAR was 21st in baseball at the end of the first half, but now it ranks seventh in the sport and first in the National League. His .275/.384/.579 batting line is good for a 155 wRC+, which is second in the NL and eighth in baseball, just ahead of Jesus Aguilar and Manny Machado. His season totals are even more amazing when you consider that on May 15, Carpenter was hitting .140/.286/.272 with a 59 wRC+. Jay Jaffe already detailed Carpenter’s turnaround at the end of June when he was just doing really well.

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Job Postings: Brewers Baseball Operations

Please note that this posting contains two positions.

Position: Data Engineer- Baseball Operations

Location: Milwaukee, WI

Summary:
The Data Engineer will work closely with the Data Architect and the Baseball Research & Development team to maintain, enhance, and extend the Brewers databases and data pipelines. They will be responsible for collecting and transforming data from various sources, preparing and distributing for consumption by the department’s systems and analysts. The ideal candidate is an experienced data pipeline builder who excels at automating and optimizing data systems.

Responsibilities:

Essential Duties and Responsibilities include the following. Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions. Other duties may be assigned.

  • Create, maintain and optimize data ETL pipelines
  • Document, troubleshoot, and resolve issues with data processes
  • Collaborate with the development and research teams
  • Extend our AWS cloud platform initiative
  • Identify, design, and implement internal process improvements
  • Work with stakeholders to utilize data to create innovative solutions to baseball operations problems
  • Prepare datasets for processing and research
  • Deploy and maintain system and database monitoring tools.

Qualifications:

To perform this job successfully, an individual must be able to perform each essential duty satisfactorily. The requirements listed below are representative of the knowledge, skill, and/or ability required.

  • SQL knowledge and experience working with relational databases such as SQL Server and PostgreSQL.
  • Experience with Object Oriented programming languages such as Java, C#.
  • Experience with scripting programming languages such as Python, R.
  • Experience with a variety of structured, semi-structured and unstructured data formats including delimited files, XML, JSON and natural language text.
  • Experience with software development life-cycle, including requirements definition, design, development, testing, implementation, and iterative improvement.
  • Experience with Docker is a plus.
  • Experience with AWS Cloud services such as EC2, RDS, S3 is a plus.
  • Experience with job orchestration tools such as Airflow is a plus.
  • Familiarity with advanced statistical concepts, particularly those relevant to player evaluation techniques including experience implementing statistical calculations and derivations.

Education and/or Experience:
Bachelor’s degree (B. A.) in Computer Science, Information Systems, or related field from four-year college or university; and three to five years related experience and/or training; or equivalent combination of education and experience.

Computer Skills:
To perform the job successfully, the individual must be proficient using Microsoft office software including Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Access, Outlook, and Internet Explorer.

Other Skills and Abilities:
Capable of working extended hours such as overtime, nights, and weekends when necessary.

Language Skills:
Ability to read and comprehend simple instructions, short correspondence, and memos. Ability to write reports, business correspondence, and procedure manuals. Ability to effectively present information in one-on-one and small group situations to department members and non-technical baseball operations staff.

Mathematical Skills:
Ability to add, subtract, multiply, and divide in all units of measure, using whole numbers, common fractions, and decimals. Ability to compute rate, ratio, and percent and to draw and interpret bar graphs.

Reasoning Ability:
Ability to define problems, collect data, establish facts, and draw valid conclusions. Ability to apply common sense understanding to carry out detailed but uninvolved written or oral instructions. Ability to deal with problems involving a few concrete variables in standardized situations.

Physical Demands:
The physical demands described here are representative of those that must be met by an employee to successfully perform the essential functions of this job. Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions.

While performing the duties of this Job, the employee is regularly required to use hands to finger, handle, or feel and talk or hear. The employee is frequently required to reach with hands and arms. The employee isoccasionally required to stand; walk; sit and stoop, kneel, crouch, or crawl. The employee must regularly lift and /or move up to 25 pounds. Specific vision abilities required by this job include close vision, distance vision, peripheral vision and ability to adjust focus.

Work Environment:
The work environment characteristics described here are representative of those an employee encounters while performing the essential functions of this job. Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions.

While performing the duties of this Job, the employee is regularly exposed to outside weather conditions, which may include heat, cold and various forms of precipitation. The employee is occasionally exposed to moving mechanical parts.

The noise level in the work environment is usually quiet.

Work Hours:
Business hours are Monday – Friday 9am – 5pm, however, candidates must be capable of working extended hours such as overtime, nights, and weekends, when necessary.

To Apply:
To apply, please visit this site.

Position: Developer – Baseball Systems

Location: Milwaukee, WI

Summary:

The Milwaukee Brewers are currently seeking a full-time Developer for Baseball Systems. This individual will collaborate with the Baseball Research & Development team and will assist in the expansion and maintenance of an aggregated player information and reporting system. This position requires strong software development skills and experience as well as a demonstrated ability for independent thought and working within a team framework.

Responsibilities:

Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions. Other duties may be assigned.

  • Responsible for design and development of user interfaces/experiences and fast and efficient back-end systems for all new and existing Baseball Operations department systems.
  • Assist in creating additional application content and visualizations for organizational share, especially for mobile environments.
  • Create necessary data structure to facilitate user-friendly analytical research to be conducted within the Brewers player information/reporting system and additional external applications.
  • Identify, diagnose and resolve data quality issues.
  • Facilitate discussion between department head and end users as it relates to building easy-to-use and intuitive interfaces that meet their needs.
  • Create tests and documentation around new features and functionality.
  • Execute exploratory research and analysis directed by the department head, as needed.

Qualifications:

To perform this job successfully, an individual must be able to perform each essential duty satisfactorily. The requirements listed below are representative of the knowledge, skill, and/or ability required.

  • Experience with software development, including requirements definition, design, development, testing, implementation, and iterative improvement. Experience in Agile teams, particularly Scrum, is a plus.
  • Proficiency with web development technologies (including C#, Angular, HTML5, CSS, JavaScript and JavaScript frameworks). Strong understanding of desktop, laptop and mobile UI/UX design concepts and demonstrated ability to apply responsive design techniques. Particularly focused on representing large data sets in easy to consume user interfaces.
  • Knowledge of Microsoft SQL (database management and optimization techniques a plus).
  • Working familiarity with advanced statistical concepts, particularly those relevant to sabermetric player evaluation techniques including experience implementing statistical calculations, derivations, and graphical representations into software applications (experience with R and Mathematica a plus).

Education and/or Experience:
Bachelor’s degree (B. A.) in Computer Science, Information Systems, or related field from four-year college or university; and zero to three years related experience and/or training; or equivalent combination of education and experience.

Computer Skills:
To perform the job successfully, an individual should have knowledge of Microsoft office software including Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Access, Outlook, and Internet Explorer.

Work Hours:
Business hours are Monday – Friday 9am – 5pm, however, candidates must be capable of working extended hours such as overtime, nights, and weekends, when necessary.

To Apply:
To apply, please visit this site.