Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 12/19

12:01

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. Let us discuss baseball prospects.

12:02

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: What is Tyler O’Neill?

12:02

Eric A Longenhagen: I have doubts about his ability to hit but think there’s a good chanc e he gets to enough of his power to play every day anyway.

12:02

Jimmy Ballgame: Ketel marte for real? His second half/playoff experience has me hopeful

12:03

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m a believer

12:03

Tommy N.: Do you think Enyel De Los Santos can realistically become more than a backend rotation slash bullpen piece?

Read the rest of this entry »


Walker Buehler May Be Key to What Comes Next for Dodgers

The Dodgers made a big trade with the Braves over the weekend, and Jeff Sullivan did a great job of illustrating how, for Los Angeles, it mostly represented a trade of debt this season for debt next season. The deal allows the club to avoid the tax threshold for a year, resetting their penalty and allowing them (if they choose) to cross back over the threshold next year at less cost.

There’s certainly a reason they’d make that choice: next year’s offseason features a number of top free agents, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper chief among them. But we’re not done yet with the current offseason yet, and it’s an offseason following a World Series appearance for the Dodgers. What’s left for them to do? And what does Walker Buehler’s curveball have to do with it?

Read the rest of this entry »


Four Deserving Hall of Famers, Omar Vizquel New to Ballot

As I noted in my post at the end of last week regarding Hall of Fame holdovers, the ballot is a bit of a mess right now. There are already seven players who’ve received at least 45% of the vote — generally a pretty good gauge of worthiness when it comes to the Hall — plus a handful of others (Larry Walker, in particular) who are lower on the ballot but deserve induction, as well.

Joining that group of deserving candidates this offseason is a collection of four additional players who merit a place in the Hall — as well as Omar Vizquel, who is getting a lot of votes in the early going. This year’s entries include one no-doubter (Chipper Jones), another who’s deserving and likely to earn induction on the strength of his offensive contributions (Jim Thome), and two more players who merit selection but whose case rests largely on defensive contributions (Andruw Jones and Scott Rolen).

Before we get to the contenders, let’s take a brief look at the players who’ve earned spots on the ballot with solid careers but lack much of a case for the Hall.

Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 1151: Performance-Enhancing Antlers

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter (and bantler?) about more Marlins trade requests, the Yankees’ outlook for 2018, antler-rubbing bats vs. bone-rubbing bats, and a scout quote about Shohei Ohtani, then discuss the financial implications of the weekend’s big Braves-Dodgers trade, the effects of the luxury tax, and the latest Manny Machado trade rumors.

Read the rest of this entry »


Mitch Moreland Will Be on the Red Sox Again

How do you respond when your fiercest rival picks up Giancarlo Stanton? Well, I don’t care how you respond. Here’s how the Red Sox have responded.

Mitch Moreland, two years, $13 million. If he hits all his incentives, it’ll be $14 million instead. This isn’t something that would take the Red Sox out of the running for every free agent, but this does seem to take the Sox out of the running for Eric Hosmer. We’ll get to that.

I think there are two ways to look at this. If you want to be optimistic, you might note that Moreland injured a toe in the middle of June, and then that toe injury seems to have cascaded into a knee injury. Moreland’s 2017 splits are of some significance:

Mitch Moreland’s 2017
Split PA wRC+ Hard% Exit Velo xwOBA
Through 6/13 247 128 46% 90 0.395
After 6/15 327 76 35% 89 0.353
SOURCE: Baseball Savant

Before the injuries, Moreland was really quite good! The Red Sox might figure that Moreland is healthy again, so they might figure they’ll get more of that early-season edition moving forward. At 32, Moreland isn’t young, but he’s not so old you’d expect him to fall flat on his face. There’s still some power in there, he improved his walk rate, and he’s long been a good defender at first base. It’s possible to look at this and conclude the Red Sox have a potential bargain on their hands.

Yet Moreland is coming off a 0.9 WAR season. This is where you go if you want to be pessimistic. Moreland has been in the majors for eight seasons, and only once has he been worth at least one win above replacement. His career WAR is 5.1, over 3,338 plate appearances. That’s 0.9 WAR per 600. Based on the Steamer projections, on a per-600-PA basis, Moreland ranks as the 42nd-best first baseman. There are 30 major-league baseball teams. You can see the upside in how Moreland got started this past year, but he doesn’t have a very encouraging record. This would appear to be an investment in veteran mediocrity.

The Red Sox could still conceivably try to go after J.D. Martinez. They’d have to move an outfielder, or move on from Hanley Ramirez. Neither is too high a hurdle. But the Hosmer angle is also important, because it doesn’t seem like Hosmer has a very large market at all. Maybe I’m just misreading things, or maybe it’s a consequence of Scott Boras’ sky-high price tag. In theory, if it came down, more teams could get involved. But by far the hottest suitor has been San Diego, and the competition they face might be…limited…to…Kansas City. Boston had been included in there, as a big-budget team with a positional need, but now they’re out. At this point I’d be pretty surprised if Hosmer didn’t end up with the Padres. That’s a weird sentence.

Anyhow, Hosmer is for another day. This day is for the Red Sox re-signing Mitch Moreland. It’s not a move that doesn’t have upside. That’s about as much as I think I can sell it.


Managers’ View: Do Today’s Players Understand the Game Better?

Players today are physically superior to those of previous generations. They’re bigger, they’re stronger, they’re faster. Thanks in part to advances in training methods, most modern-day athletes are fine-tuned machines.

Are they also smarter? Given the amount of information now available, from launch angles to spin rates to advanced stats, they certainly know things their forebears didn’t. Does that mean they understand the game better? I asked a selection of big-league managers for their opinions during the Winter Meetings.

———

Craig Counsell, Milwaukee Brewers

“Hopefully we’re making progress. I think they should always be getting bigger; they should always be getting stronger; they should always be getting a little smarter. We have access to more and more information as we make progress in the game. So yes, I think so, but it’s not leaps and bounds. Some of it is that the information is a little different, and we’re asking the players to consume more information.

Read the rest of this entry »


J.T. Realmuto Would Like to Not Be a Marlin

The Marlins no longer have Giancarlo Stanton, who is extremely good. They no longer have Marcell Ozuna, who is very good. And they no longer have Dee Gordon, who is pretty good. Even if you trust that the Marlins’ new ownership group is trying to act in the team’s long-term best interests, it’s obvious that the club is rebuilding, and therefore won’t be any good any time soon. Given the circumstances, eyes have turned to Christian Yelich, an excellent player who might be traded. He’s not alone, however. J.T. Realmuto is a lesser-known player, but he’s a quality everyday catcher, and he wouldn’t mind being granted some freedom.

Craig Mish broke the news that Realmuto would like to be traded. Ken Rosenthal confirmed the report. Via Bob Nightengale, we learn the Marlins aren’t in a hurry to make a move. It’s not clear whether Realmuto made a demand, or if he just spoke to the possibility. And, of course, Realmuto has limited leverage here, since he can’t force his way out. Even the prospect of Realmuto performing worse because he’s unhappy would be bad for both the player and team. Whatever happens with Realmuto will happen. It’s not so much up to him. But — well, why stop at Ozuna? Where do the Marlins think that they’re going? Realmuto might as well be traded, and he would bring back a significant haul.

Read the rest of this entry »


Let’s Talk About Manny Machado’s Trade Value

Manny Machado is on the trade block. And rightfully so, as the Orioles are not very close to the other contenders in the AL East, and are looking at losing Machado, Zach Britton, and Adam Jones to free agency next winter. There is simply too large a divide to justify holding those guys and hoping the team lucks into a Wild Card spot, so moving their best pieces while they have the most value is the rational decision.

That said, as I’ve ready some of the suggested offers various teams could make to bring Machado to their city, it seems there remains a disconnect between the understanding of Machado’s abilities and Machado’s trade value. It’s unquestioned that Machado is one of the best players in the world. He’s a star, and will be paid accordingly in free agency next year. But for anyone acquiring him, he’s a one-year rental, with some fringe benefit of being able to try to get him to give you a discount in free agency next winter. That’s worth something, but it isn’t worth the kinds of packages that people seem to expect.

Read the rest of this entry »


A Manny Machado Trade Would Be Historic

Manny Machado possesses a rare combination of youth and talent. (Photo: Keith Allison)

The Orioles have seemingly come to their senses about their place on the win curve and, as such, are open to trading Manny Machado. On the other hand, it’s been nearly a week since that news broke, and we haven’t heard many concrete trade offers out for Baltimore’s All-Star infielder. Perhaps the news was overblown. Perhaps not. One thing we can say with certainty is that, if Machado were traded, it would be fairly historic.

Read the rest of this entry »


Shohei Ohtani Fills Another Glaring Need for Angels

This past Friday, writing even before the actual start of winter (it’s still officially autumn!), this author nevertheless declared the Angels the winners of the offseason.

Their triumph in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes alone might have sealed that distinction, but last week the Angels also added Zack Cozart and Ian Kinsler. Earlier in the offseason, they extended Justin Upton. And for good measure, they signed former Braves prospect Kevin Maitan.

They’ve added a number of crucial wins — at a reasonable total cost — to propel themselves from the bubble of the projected standings to a Wild Card favorite.

The Angels have upgraded two infield positions, retained a slugging corner outfielder, and have added perhaps an ace pitcher. I touched on all this in the piece regarding the Angels from the end of last week. What I didn’t examine was another area of need the club has addressed thanks to Ohtani’s dual-threat status.

Read the rest of this entry »