Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/6/17

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Which I…think…is going to be followed by Dave live-blogging the early game? Find out!

9:05
Bryan: What the hell happened to the Yankees last night?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: They lost!

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: When you’re going up against part of the best pitching staff in at least modern baseball history, you’re probably going to look like you’re taking bad at-bats

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Trevor Bauer’s Dominating Curveball

Yesterday, I wrote about how Jon Gray’s curveball didn’t work in the NL Wild Card game. Gray hung a bunch of poorly-located curves that the Diamondbacks crushed, and he was chased from the game in the second inning. Last night, though, Trevor Bauer showed what a good curveball in the postseason looks like.

Trevor Bauer’s Curves
Thrown Ball Called Strike Whiff Foul In Play
35 12 8 4 4 7

With only four whiffs, you might not think the pitch was particularly dominant, but Bauer’s curveball was his best pitch of the night. Because, unlike Gray, he was able to keep it down.

Instead of just relying on whiffs, Bauer also managed to freeze hitters with curves in the zone, like he did to Aaron Judge here.

Eight times, Bauer froze a Yankee hitter with a curveball in the zone, including Aaron Judge twice for strike three. And when the Yankees did swing, it didn’t go much better for them.

15 times, a New York hitter went after Bauer’s curveball. Only seven of those 15 swings resulted in a ball in play. Here is what they did with those seven balls in play.

Trevor Bauer’s Curves in Play
Batter Exit Velocity Result
Brett Gardner 65 Pop Out
Chase Headley 89 Fly Out
Brett Gardner 84 Groundout
Gary Sanchez 70 Doulble Play
Aaron Hicks 100 Double
Brett Gardner 83 Groundout
Gary Sanchez 75 Groundout

Hicks rocked a poorly located curve, but besides that, this is as weak as contact gets. With Sanchez’s double play, he still managed to rack up seven outs on the seven balls in play. Combined with the four strikeouts, Bauer got a total of 11 outs out of his 35 curveballs. Not bad indeed.

Bauer’s curve has always been his best pitch, and it’s probably not a coincidence that he’s had his best season while throwing his pitch more frequently than ever before. Bauer threw his curve 30% of the time in the regular season, and upped that to 36% last night. He’s not quite Rich Hill yet, but given what Bauer did to the Yankees with his breaking ball last night, they probably should expect a healthy dose of them if he gets into another game this series.

Of course, with Corey Kluber going today and Carlos Carrasco in Game Three, the Yankees might not see Bauer again this season.


Jose Altuve’s Evolution to MVP Candidate

Perhaps we ought to have have written more about Jose Altuve at FanGraphs this season.

The last, and only, FanGraphs post dedicated solely to Altuve this year was published on Aug. 4, when the excellent Craig Edwards documented Altuve’s historic July and his MVP momentum.

Perhaps part of the reason there hasn’t been an avalanche of Altuve content is this: what more is there to say? Altuve is really good. We know he’s really good. One thing that has remained constant in this rapidly changing world is the sight of Altuve spraying line drives all over major-league outfields. He remains one of the best pure hitters in the sport, one who added power to his game beginning in 2015 and whose power spiked again in 2016 and 2017. Altuve is going to get his 200 hits, he’s going to make contact at an elite rate, and he’s going to defy the expectations created by his small stature.

Altuve has become so good, so steady, we — or, at least this author — generally turn our attention elsewhere to new trends, pop-up players, air-ball revolutionaries, etc.

But Altuve himself is evolving. He’s making gains as a power hitter (as you’re probably aware) and in other areas that are perhaps less obvious. And Altuve demanded our attention on Thursday afternoon in the Astros’ ALDS opener, recording three home runs, including two off of Chris Sale.

While the Astros and Altuve will obviously take the performance, it’s the kind of day that could have perhaps swayed MVP voters had it occurred a week earlier. It’s remarkable that the game’s largest man, Aaron Judge, and smallest, Altuve, are the AL MVP frontrunners and have produced nearly the same value despite occupying completely opposite ends of the physical spectrum.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1119: We’re in the Great Game Now

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter one last time about the Glory Hole Recreation Area, as well as fading feelings of fandom, the circumstances that led to Braves GM John Coppolella’s resignation, and poor press-conference questions. Then they discuss their takeaways from the wild-card games and thoughts on the division series matchups before answering playoff-themed listener emails about Zack Granite missing first base, Craig Kimbrel’s exit velocity, team-level performance against particular pitch types, why playoff announcers annoy everyone, the prospect of repetitive pennant winners, short playoff outings by starting pitchers, and more.

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Michael Brantley’s Return Leaves Questions for the Indians

The recent history of players returning from injury to the postseason isn’t great. (Photo: Keith Allison)

On Tuesday, a couple of days ahead of the deadline, Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona announced the Division Series roster that would take on either (at the time) the New York Yankees or Minnesota Twins. While the most surprising development was probably Francona’s choice to start Trevor Bauer in Game 1, there were plenty of other questions to ask. Should the team be worried about its bullpen after leaving three key relievers off the roster? Are six outfielders too many and 11 pitchers too few? And is carrying outfielder Michael Brantley so soon after his return from injury a good idea?

Michael Brantley has always offered a maddening combination of considerable talent and questionable durability. Selected in the seventh round of the 2005 draft by the Brewers, Brantley was sent to Cleveland as the player to be named later in the 2007 deal for CC Sabathia. After 2009, Baseball America ranked him fifth among the prospects in the Cleveland system, lauding his hit tool and control of the strike zone. After five poor-to-middling seasons to begin his career, Brantley broke out in 2014 with a six-win campaign, his first All-Star appearance, and a third-place finish in the MVP voting.

Despite his offensive outbursts, Brantley has spent a significant amount of time on the disabled list. In 2011, he missed the final month of the season with a wrist injury. The 2016 campaign saw him miss time due to his shoulder. This year, he lost nearly two months to a sprained ankle. With 274 days spent on the disabled list since the start of the 2016 season, Brantley’s availability seems to consistently be an open question.

Given his talents, the Indians clearly would like Brantley around. Moreover, teammates have described him as one of the team’s leaders. However, despite the progress Brantley has made in recovery and his miraculous at-bat this past Saturday, the playoff performances of players returning from injury should curb expectations for the club’s Opening Day left-fielder.

The most recent case of a player returning from injury for the playoffs came against these same Indians last year. Kyle Schwarber, who tore his ACL and LCL in the second game of the 2016 season, returned in the World Series to absolutely mash, slashing .412/.500/.471 in 20 plate appearances — including a key three singles in five at-bats in Game 7. While Schwarber was obviously integral to Chicago’s championship run, other players who’ve returned from injury to appear in the postseason have done so less successfully.

Since 2009, there have been 15 hitters who’ve resumed play in the last half of September from the disabled list and appeared in at least one playoff series. Some of their injuries were more serious than Brantley’s sprained ankle, others much less so; however, the performance of these players can best described, at best, as “middling.”

Players Returning from Injury for Postseason: 2009-2016
Year Player Team Regular Season PA Regular Season Postseason PA Postseason
2009 Greg Dobbs Philadelphia 169 .247/.296/.383 4 .000/.000/.000
2010 Laynce Nix Cincinnati 182 .291/.350/.455 3 .000/.000/.000
2012 Jim Thome Baltimore 163 .252/.344/.442 15 .133/.188/.133
2012 Brett Gardner New York (A) 37 .323/.417.387 8 .000/.000/.000
2013 Jason Heyward Atlanta 440 .254/.349/.420 18 .167/.167/.333
2014 Ryan Zimmerman Washington 240 .280/.342/.449 4 .250/.250/.250
2015 Jorge Soler Chicago (N) 404 .262/.324/.399 25 .474/.600/1.105
2015 Jason Castro Houston 375 .211/.283/.365 18 .063/.166/.063
2015 Kiké Hernandez Los Angeles (N) 218 .307/.346/.490 15 .308/.400/.308
2015 Howie Kendrick Los Angeles (N) 495 .295/.336/.409 22 .273/.273/.455
2015 Yasiel Puig Los Angeles (N) 368 .263/.323/.416 6 .000/.000/.000
2016 Kyle Schwarber Chicago (N) 5 .000/.000/.000 20 .412/.500/.471
2016 Yan Gomes Cleveland 264 .167/.201/.327 4 .000/.000/.000
2016 Gregor Blanco San Francisco 274 .224/.309/.311 10 .125/.222/.250
2016 Shin-Soo Choo Texas 210 .242/.357/.399 3 .000/.000/.000

Now, of course, the posteseason is a place of impossibly small sample sizes, making any resulting lines incredibly variable. That aside, a third of the players here performed poorly in their very few trips to the plate, many in the pinch-hitting role that Brantley is expected to assume. A little under a third performed well, some very much so. This is, of course, the best case for Brantley, and he clearly has the talent to do so. The remaining players fell well short of their season performance and have also tended to strike out at a higher rate than normal. Maybe their timing has been off from their missed time? That’s merely a guess, though. Even accounting for small sample sizes and the increased quality of playoff pitching and competition, something is still lacking in their performance.

Brantley’s inclusion creates further complications for the Indians beyond performance questions. Even with Brantley’s progress in playing the field, he will be unlikely to play anything other than pinch- or designated hitter, forcing the Indians to carry five additional outfielders. As a result, the pitching staff is limited to 11 pitchers, which may be a little short if they weren’t maybe the best pitching staff ever. However, the lack of flexibility created by including Brantley may make the Indians miss hitters such as Yandy Diaz or pitchers such Dan Otero and Nick Goody.

It’s important to remember that the Indians are clearly a better team with a healthy Brantley. However, Brantley’s presence isn’t essential, either: the Indians did go on possibly the most impressive streak in baseball history, becoming the hot team going into the postseason and passing the Dodgers as the Vegas favorite to win the World Series. It’s understandable that the Indians want their one of their leaders back, but the performance of players returning from an injury to the postseason with the added roster flexibility questions makes Brantley’s inclusion a risky one. They might indeed be good enough to overcome a lesser Brantley performance, but Terry Francona and the rest of Cleveland’s decision-makers are certainly hoping that this decision doesn’t come back to haunt them.


Archie Bradley’s Triple Was More Improbable Than You Think

Technically, in Wednesday’s NL wild-card game, the lead never changed hands. The Diamondbacks went up 3-0 on Paul Goldschmidt‘s early homer, and they won by an identical margin. Yet it still felt like something of a roller coaster, because the Rockies refused to go away. A 6-0 game narrowed to 6-5. An 8-5 game narrowed to 8-7. Even Fernando Rodney’s ninth inning wasn’t clean, as the Rockies attempted to rally. The game, overall, delivered on its promise. We didn’t end up with a wild-card clunker.

It’s always fun to break these games down in retrospect. I like to take the win-expectancy angle. The game’s third-most important event was A.J. Pollock‘s triple in the bottom of the eighth. It moved the win expectancy by 11 percentage points. The game’s second-most important event was the first-inning Goldschmidt homer. It moved the win expectancy by 13 percentage points. And the game’s single most important event was Archie Bradley’s triple in the bottom of the seventh. It moved the win expectancy by 16 percentage points. Bradley is a pitcher. Bradley is a relief pitcher.

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Red Sox-Astros ALDS Game 1 Live Blog

3:58
Paul Swydan: Hi everyone!

3:58
Paul Swydan: I have never heard of Clay Walker.

3:59
Charlotte the bassador: we cant watch the game?

4:00
Paul Swydan: Sorry if you can’t watch the game. Hopefully everyone can find a way, through legals means or otherwise.

4:00
Paul Swydan:

Who wins today?

Red Sox (27.3% | 50 votes)
 
Astros (72.6% | 133 votes)
 

Total Votes: 183
4:00
Paul Swydan:

Who are you *rooting* for?

Red Sox (24.0% | 46 votes)
 
Astros (53.9% | 103 votes)
 
Both (3.1% | 6 votes)
 
Neither (18.8% | 36 votes)
 

Total Votes: 191

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The Three Pitches That Matter for Chris Sale

Chris Sale, one of just two legitimate candidates for the American League’s Cy Young Award, will start for the Red Sox this afternoon against the Astros in Houston. Sale has produced a season nearly unprecedented in certain important ways. The Astros’ offense has produced a season nearly unprecedented in certain important ways. The former isn’t an unstoppable force, nor the latter an immovable object, mostly because humans are irretrievably fallible. Relative to other mortals, however, both parties acquit themselves very well.

Unsurprisingly, Houston manager A.J. Hinch has deployed a righty-heavy lineup against Sale. Only Brian McCann and Josh Reddick will lack the platoon advantage against Boston’s starter. Over the course of his career, Sale has conceded a wOBA nearly 50 points greater to right-handed batters than left-handed ones. But that’s mostly because he’s rendered left-handers existentially moot. Righties have still hit poorly against him, producing a collective batting line roughly equivalent to Yolmer Sanchez’s own career mark.

So it’s clear that Sale has had success against right-handers. How, though? What specifically does he throw? The answer is likely relevant to his start against the Astros.

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Jon Gray’s Curveball Didn’t Work

Last night, the Rockies got let down by most of their pitching staff. Unlikely heroes Scott Oberg and Chris Rusin came in and shut the door, but the guys the Rockies were really counting on — particularly starter Jon Gray — just couldn’t keep the Diamondbacks from putting runs on the board.

Gray, coming off a pretty great season, gave up four runs while recording just four outs. And while Bud Black correctly noted that he just threw some pitches in some bad locations, I think it’s also fair to question some of the pitches themselves.

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Players’ View: Does Coaching Age Matter in Player Development?

Back in mid-August, I attended a Midwest League game featuring a team with a notably young staff. The manager and pitching coach were both just 27 years old; the hitting coach was only three years their senior. A few weeks earlier, meanwhile, I’d spoken to a short-season coach who’s been tutoring pitchers longer than any of those three has been alive. He’s old enough to draw Social Security and still on the job.

That got me thinking about the age dynamic. How are players at the lower levels of the minors impacted by managers and coaches from different age groups? Do 18- to 22-year-old athletes respond better to, and learn more from, instructors who are old enough to be their fathers or grandfathers? Or from instructors who are closer to their own age?

Or is it mostly irrelevant? When it comes to player development, are coaches of all ages created equal in the eyes of the youngsters they’re tutoring? More so, does age matter to those in charge of putting together minor-league coaching staffs? I asked these questions to a large cross section of players, coaches, farm directors, and front-office executives.

———

Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay Rays first-base coach: “It can work great if it’s the right individual. That’s what it basically boils down to. Is it difficult for a younger person to come in and coach players who are almost their age? It can be, but it can also be an attribute. Regardless of the job you’re talking about, if you believe in that person’s ability to learn and make adjustments, you have the right person. Their age won’t matter.

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