Last Wednesday, a commenter named Boofer (thanks, Boofer!) asked me to look into a book by former Mets and Phillies Outfielder Lenny Dykstra called House of Nails. In said book, Dykstra claims to have hired a team of private investigators for $500,000 to look into the backgrounds of umpires and discover their dirty secrets. This is a family site, so I won’t go into any great detail about what most of those secrets are. Suffice to say, however, that they concern certain details about the umpires’ private lives, such as sex and gambling, that the umpires ostensibly wouldn’t have wanted to be made public. Dykstra says that he collected those secrets as leverage to get a better strike zone from umpires.
According to Dykstra, it worked. Consider this, from a 2015 appearance on The Herd:
For those who’d prefer not to watch the video, it’s more or less Dykstra pantomiming an at-bat during which he asks an umpire if the latter “covered the spread” on a bet the previous night and then suggesting to Colin Cowherd that he received favorable calls after having successfully conveyed his meaning to said umpire.
Regarding Dykstra’s claims, I think two questions fall within the purview of this site. First: is there any objective evidence that Dykstra benefited from a smaller strike zone than his peers? And second: if Dykstra’s claims are true, are they also illegal?
Both Eric and I will be posting in-person scouting reports on draft prospects we see throughout the spring. And through summer, too. And the fall, also, for that matter. Here is my first dispatch from Florida. Other will follow from where I am currently — namely, the Dominican Republic. (See my twitter account for real-time updates.) Here’s Eric’s recap of his first week watching amateur action in Arizona.
There’s been a good bit of draft news since our rankings dropped, so let’s run down the news before I get into the games I saw last weekend.
As I first reported (with an assist from Eric), the No. 3 overall prospect on our preseason board, Georgia prep RHP Ethan Hankins, left a start in the first inning with an arm injury that was later revealed to be a sore shoulder. It’s believed that this is just a minor setback that will be resolved with weeks of rehab, which shouldn’t severely impact his draft stock.
Some scouts with whom I spoke before Hankins’ injury were mildly concerned that his debut ranked third behind behind those of Florida prep righties Mason Denaburg and Carter Stewart. (more on those two below.) News regarding Hankins’ injury helps to explain his ineffectiveness, though. He’ll have plenty of time to get healthy and back on track. Here’s to hoping it’s as minor of an injury as expected.
We lost two notable college arms — Texas Tech LHP Stephen Gingery (a second- to third-round prospect) and Florida State LHP Tyler Holton (a performer with solid stuff who didn’t sign in last year’s draft as an eligible sophomore) — to torn UCLs over the weekend.
Beyond that, some quick hit notes from around the country:
No. 2 on our list, Arizona prep 3B Nolan Gorman, hit an opposite-field homer in his team’s first action last weekend.
Eric saw Oregon State this weekend and will see them again, so he’s holding off on writing about them, but it sounds like 2B Nick Madrigal (No. 6 on our list) and RF Trevor Larnach (No. 29) met and exceeded expectations, respectively, on opening weekend.
No. 7 on our list, Stetson RHP Logan Gilbert, featured stuff that was down a tick, but he was effective anyway (and it’s early). Another college pitcher and No. 8 prospect, Ole Miss LHP Ryan Rolison, apparently had a tick better stuff in his debut, flashing 55-60s not only on all three pitches but also his command. One scout described it as “a top-five-pick performance.” I also heard some buzz that the debut of a third collegiate, No. 18 Auburn RHP Casey Mize, was as impressive as his line, and he has some top-10 pick momentum now as well.
No. 9 prospect, California prep SS Brice Turang, went deep after fellow California prep RHP Cole Winn (who would’ve been in the 30s of our list if we went a little deeper) exited the game. Winn was 90-95 and touching 96 mph when he faced Turang. Winn is also known for having one of the highest-spin curveballs in the class, behind Notorious RPM Carter Stewart
No. 23 on our list, Florida prep CF Connor Scott may already be making that Austin Beck-esque move up the board we mentioned in the draft rankings, hitting a homer earlier this week and continuing to grow on scouts with his wide base of standout tools. Another prep arm, No. 22 RHP Kumar Rocker from Georgia, was solid in his season debut, working 94-98 mph for three innings.
No. 19 on our list, Oregon RHP Matt Mercer met expectations in his debut outing, with the expected above average four pitch mix and mid-90’s velocity. We’ve also heard from some scouts that it appears both No. 17 on our list South Alabama CF Travis Swaggerty and Oklahoma RF Steele Walker (just missed the top 30) have added more loft to their swings. Both weren’t really homer threats last summer for Team USA but hit homers this weekend playing in the same tournament in Myrtle Beach. Swaggerty and Walker both have enough raw power to move up boards if they can successfully make and sustain this adjustment.
Among players who just missed the top-30 group, Connecticut LHP Tim Cate has some big believers, while others think he’s just a smallish reliever, with one scout reserving judgment on his debut saying he was “just fine.” Stanford RHP Tristan Beck was healthy (a big accomplishment for him at this point), and his stuff was mostly back, which could land him in the middle of round one if he can do that for the rest of the spring.
Also, Florida State RHP Cole Sands was into the mid-90s in his debut, and scouts are telling me I need to get in to see the Seminoles to check out their likely new Friday starter (taking Holton’s spot), 2018-eligible bats OF Jackson Lueck and C Cal Raleigh, along with 2019-eligible 3B Drew Mendoza. In what already appeared to be a banner year for talent in Florida colleges and preps, things keeps getting better.
Now, on to the guys I personally scouted last weekend:
Carter Stewart, RHP, Eau Gallie HS (FL)
In the draft-rankings blurb, we noted that Stewart’s curveball is his separator, with some scouts projecting it to a 70 on the 20-80 scale. If his 88-92 mph fastball from this summer can get into the mid-90s, however, he’ll likely rise into the early to mid-stages of the first round. In his season debut, his velocity was 91-94 mph for the whole three-inning outing, pitching in front of 12 of the 30 scouting directors by my count. This was because Denaburg (below) was going in the nightcap at the same field as part of a PBR tournament and, the next day, Florida, Stetson, and USF would all be featuring top-15 type arms within driving distance. Stewart’s curveball wasn’t its normal self, more 50 to 55 with a couple 60s mixed in at 78-82 mph. For a long-limbed teenage pitcher in his season debut, however, throwing a consistently sharp curveball is a tall order.
Kiley McDaniel: Leave your question here and I’ll be back at noon eastern to chat. See my twitter @kileymcd for my notes from the MLB Int’l showcase (July 2nd, 2018 eligible Latin prospects) this week and Carson tells me that my post with tons of draft info will be going up shortly.
12:04
Kiley McDaniel: Inception
12:04
Kiley McDaniel: whoa
12:04
Matt: This isn’t where I parked my Jeff Sullivan
12:04
Kiley McDaniel: You will be able to find him here next week and me in my rightful place next week!
12:06
He Hate Me: Given that pitchers have a higher injury risk than hitters, does it make sense to focus more on hitters in the draft and then trade some of your seasoned hitting prospects (some of whom might be blocked) for young pitchers that have proven to be durable in their first few seasons? This seems to be the opposite of what the Braves have done (closer to what the Cubs are doing?).
So far, at least, Jeffrey Loria’s defense against the suit filed by Miami-Dade related to his claim of no net proceeds in his sale of the Marlins isn’t going so well. Loria’s lawyers attempted to argue that the summary they turned over to Miami-Dade was legally sufficient under the stadium contract and that no further explanation was necessary. Judge Beatrice Butchko disagreed, contending that Loria’s summary was “a problem.”
Here’s why that matters: because, on a basic level, it’s never a good sign for a defendant when the judge suggests that his case has “a problem” at the beginning of proceedings. And here’s why else: the court also vacated the previously set deadline for Miami and Miami-Dade to object to Loria’s numbers — and, more importantly, opened discovery. Which means Loria now has to start turning over his financial and supporting documents to Miami-Dade attorneys.
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the World Series champion Houston Astros. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Alamo Heights HS (TX)
Age
19
Height
6’7
Weight
240
Bat/Throw
R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Slider
Curveball
Changeup
Cutter
Command
70/70
55/60
60/60
55/60
50/55
45/55
When Whitley remade his physique during his senior year of high school, his stuff and command both ticked up, and they’ve continued to do so. He now sits 93-97. Whitley’s size and delivery create good angle up and down in the zone, and he can sink or cut his fastball if he wants to. He has a knee-buckling curveball, a hard slider, and a burgeoning changeup that has quickly developed into a plus pitch. Whitley’s delivery is a bit violent, but he throws strikes and already has impressive control for a pitcher this size, age, and with this kind of stuff. This unique combination of stuff, pitchability, and command allowed Whitley to traverse three levels last year, ending with four impressive appearances at Double-A. Whitley struck out 143 hitters in 92.1 innings. He doesn’t turn 21 until mid-September and has ace ceiling.
I don’t know much about the NEIFI projection system, and I don’t have access to its archives. I don’t know how far back it goes. The tweet, though, stuck in my memory, and for weeks I looked forward to what numbers would show up right here. We’ve always had the Steamer projection system numbers on display, but only the other day did we get to include ZiPS. So, things are pretty much final, pending injuries and a few further significant free-agent signings. The Astros’ roster looks set. Maybe there’s a bullpen battle or two. Whatever. Here are the current projected standings.
The Astros are projected to win 101 games. That’s an extraordinary total, and no one is close. I’ll acknowledge right here that this isn’t very surprising. Also, the Astros just actually won the World Series, so, who cares? A great team is a great team. I get it, and you can close this window if you want to. I’m just wired to delight in fun facts. I come carrying further fun facts.
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the Brent Honeywell injury and Corey Dickerson trade, the Yankees’ and Orioles’ potentially record-breaking projected home-run totals, two addenda about team-inspired baby names, surviving spring training, and an ill-advised trampoline recommendation, then preview the 2018 Yankees (19:07) with The Athletic NYC’s Marc Carig, and the 2018 Orioles (52:48) with MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli.
The Rays’ decision to designate Dickerson for assignment last week shocked many in the baseball community given that Dickerson, an All-Star in 2017, had just authored a 115-wRC+, 27-homer, three-win season. But the Rays wanted to rid themselves of his $5.9 million salary. By designating him, they would, at the very worst, be responsible for just 30 days of termination pay.
Jeff opined earlier this week that the Rays managed to trim payroll without getting any worse — a development that included, essentially, swapping out Dickerson for C.J. Cron. The 28-year-old Dickerson struggled in the second half, is projected to produce a 103 wRC+, and is not much of a defender or baserunner. There are quite a few players like Dickerson still available on the free-agent market for a variety of reasons.
While Dickerson is unlikely to provide All-Star value in 2018, this still seems to very much be a sensible addition and a clear win of a trade for the Pirates since it comes at little cost.
TRADE: Pirates acquire OF Corey Dickerson from the Rays in exchange for pitcher Daniel Hudson, minor league infielder Tristan Gray and cash considerations. pic.twitter.com/evvi5sMQkV
Daniel Hudson is coming off an uninspiring season for the Pirates that included a 4.38 ERA, 4.34 FIP, and 0.1 WAR in just over 60 innings. While the Rays are getting cash back in the deal, Hudson is owed $5.5 million in 2018. The Rays also pick up Tristan Gray, who was not ranked among Pittsburgh’s top-25 organizational prospects by Eric Longenhagen.
Roger Cormier is a new contributor to FanGraphs. This is his delightful and strange first piece.
One could be excused for assuming that Eric Hosmer was made, not born. Made to confound the so-called “advanced” defensive metrics. Built to suppress that uprising known as the “fly-ball revolution.” Manufactured to lead a club written off by the projections — to lead them to a world championship. Engineered, in short, to thwart those who have attempted to harness the wild, loose ends of the game.
This long, chilly Hot Stove season appeared to be designed just for him, a comeuppance for his agitation. He, the One Demanding the Eight-Year Contract, would wait. And wait. And wait.
And then, like all mortals do, he would settle. And it would be glorious. The universe would finally bend towards justice. We would forever look at a picture of Hosmer in a puka shell necklace and laugh until we died, happy.
But we were naive. Instead, he did sign an eight-year deal. And not only that, but the pact would allow him to leave after five years if he wanted. That’s right: he even has Free Will.
How did we get here? How did we let such a polarizing creature into our lives?
As it turns out, Eric Hosmer is neither myth nor machine, but an actual human being — the progeny of two carbon-based lifeforms, even. He wasn’t constructed to singlehandedly defy sabermetric orthodoxy. Rather, he was born in South Miami. He is a person with feelings. He was once a boy.
I wanted to learn more about him, so I turned to primary sources, digging through newspaper and internet archives to build a portrait of the man. It’s a story I found interesting — and which also just so happens to be the truth.
*****
The story begins not with Hosmer himself, but with a seven-year-old named Ileana. Ileana’s family won a lottery for a temporary work visa. They got to fly out of Cuba and into the United States. Cuban officials threatened to cancel the visa the night of their flight because two of her dolls were missing. The neighbor to whom Ileana lent the dolls presented them to the officials just in time, and that was the last time she was ever in Cuba. (Another version of events, the one told by Eric himself, is similar, except Ileana was nine, and the two dolls was one teddy bear. It doesn’t matter.)
The 1997 Seattle Mariners hit 264 home runs. No team has ever hit more than that. That season, the next-closest team hit 239 home runs, and that particular team played half its baseball on the moon. The next-closest team hit 220. The Mariners hit more than their share of dingers. Didn’t win them a World Series, and, didn’t even win them an ALDS, but those Mariners still hold the single-season team record. It’s something to cling to, which is all anyone wants.
Last year’s Yankees led baseball with 241 home runs. Their lead was narrow, but they still had sole possession of first, and then those Yankees went and traded for Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton was last year’s player who hit the most homers. And that’s not the only factor here, because the Yankees might also get to enjoy a full season from a healthy Greg Bird. It doesn’t take much wonky analysis to figure the Yankees could give that single-season homer record a push. Might even knock it down! The Yankees are as set up as anyone, and, as you’ve probably heard, we’ve entered into an era of high home-run totals, anyway. Seems like it’s all lined up.
Indeed, I can verify this: The 2018 Yankees are positioned to break the home-run record. What’s a little more surprising is they’re not alone. In 1998, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa both eclipsed the home-run record set by Roger Maris. We could very well see something similar on the team scale.
