Alex Wood’s Worrisome Trend

About a month ago, the notion of adding Yu Darvish seemed to be something of a luxury for the Dodgers. After all, not only had the Dodgers emerged as the best team in baseball, they had entered the season with the most pitching depth in the game.

But then Clayton Kershaw was sent to the DL, a place where Rich Hill, Scott Kazmir and Hyun-Jin Ryu have resided at times this season — and where they have been placed often throughout their careers. Read the rest of this entry »


The Mike Trout MVP Precedent

Most of the time when we talk about Mike Trout, we ask if anybody has ever done what he’s doing. Sometimes the answer is Mickey Mantle or Ty Cobb or Albert Pujols, but a lot of the time the answer is no and what Trout is doing is unprecedented. Today, we are asking two related questions:

  1. Could Mike Trout deserve the American League Most Valuable Player Award despite missing 39 games earlier this season?
  2. Does Mike Trout have a realistic chance to win MVP despite missing 39 games earlier this season?

While answering the second question might help prove the first through precedent, let’s restrict ourselves in the first part to the value Mike Trout provides. On Friday, I talked about Jose Altuve’s candidacy for MVP and showed this chart:

American League WAR Leaders
Name WAR ROS WAR EOS Projection
Jose Altuve 5.7 1.7 7.4
Mike Trout 4.5 2.8 7.3
Aaron Judge 5.8 1.4 7.2
Mookie Betts 4.4 1.8 6.2
Jose Ramirez 4.2 1.5 5.7
Andrelton Simmons 4.3 1.4 5.7
George Springer 3.8 1.5 5.3
Justin Upton 3.5 1.2 4.7
Justin Smoak 3.7 0.8 4.5
Carlos Correa 3.9 0.2 4.1

Through August 3

Things have already changed considerably. This is what the top of that chart looks like now.

American League MVP Candidate Projections
Name WAR ROS WAR EOS Projection
Mike Trout 5.1 2.6 7.7
Jose Altuve 5.9 1.6 7.5
Aaron Judge 6.0 1.3 7.3
Andrelton Simmons 4.6 1.3 5.9
Mookie Betts 4.2 1.5 5.8
Chris Sale has 7.0 WAR, but the above list only includes position players.

So Trout is currently projected to be the AL position player WAR leader at the end of the season. If he keeps up his current pace and gets close to the the 200 more plate appearances he is projected for, he is going to get above 8 WAR. Trout is currently above a 200 wRC+, a number that hasn’t been reached since Barry Bonds and done by only nine players in non-strike seasons in history. He will actually have to exceed his projections in PAs to qualify for the batting title, as he is currently set to fall eight short. Read the rest of this entry »


Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 8/9/17

12:01
The Average Sports Fan: The Cardinals are now over .500.  Are they an actual playoff contender?

12:01
Dave Cameron: It will take either the Rockies or D’Backs falling apart. They aren’t going to catch the Cubs, most likely.

12:02
Rod: Dave, can I use the rolling charts in a blog article? Secondly, if so, is there an option to get a picture of chart? Screenshot?

12:03
Dave Cameron: Yes, you can always use any of our graphics in your posts, as long as you link to FG in the process. There’s a download image button coming soon, but for now, screenshot is the way to capture them.

12:03
christopher: Tigers fans complain about the JD return, A’s fans about the Yonder return, but those two + the crater of the bat only FA market last offseason means… that was about the reality? Has the market overcorrected?

12:04
Dave Cameron: I think there’s a decent argument to be made that bat-first players are now underpriced, yes.

Read the rest of this entry »


Joey Votto and the Changing Strike Zone

Joey Votto hasn’t made a West Coast swing recently so we don’t have original words to annotate here, but he did say some interesting things to Zach Buchanan at The Cincinnati Enquirer this week, interesting particularly because he said that “This has been documented, so this is not anecdotal here,” and that sort of statement is like catnip around here. Let’s provide the documentation.

Read the rest of this entry »


The A’s Might Have a Developing Star

Matt Chapman looks like an all-around player. (Photo: Minda Haas Kuhlman)

Over the last few years, the A’s have had a high-end player problem, in that they haven’t had any. Jed Lowrie currently leads the team with +2.3 WAR; by comparison, the Astros have seven players who have already reached that mark, and that does not include their best pitcher, Dallas Keuchel, who spent two months on the DL. The team has developed some decent role players and decent enough everyday players, but they haven’t really had a franchise player since they traded Josh Donaldson to Toronto.

Without getting too far ahead of ourselves, I am starting to wonder if they’ve finally found a guy who at least has the potential to get to that level in the not too distant future. His name is Matt Chapman.

Read the rest of this entry »


How Technology Led Josh Donaldson to Change

CLEVELAND — When I asked Josh Donaldson about being a founding father of the fly-ball revolution recently in the visiting clubhouse at Progressive Field, he re-directed the credit. The creator of the air-ball, upper-cut philosophy was Ted Williams, he noted.

Donaldson knows his history.

Williams, of course, co-authored the book The Science of Hitting. He talked about impacting the lower half of the ball. It seems like that should be required reading for all professional hitters, but I wonder what is the actual percentage of pro hitters who have read the book?

What is interesting to this author is how Donaldson arrived at his philosophy. It wasn’t from watching grainy black-and-white video of Williams. In my conversation with the right-handed slugger, he did not reference having read Williams’ thoughts as being the impetus for his belief changes. No, Donaldson arrived and adopted the #GroundballsSuck concept through what he describes as his “first love”: golf. Read the rest of this entry »


Getting the Tigers a Real Prospect for Justin Verlander

It wasn’t a big surprise when Justin Verlander stayed in Detroit at the July 31st trade deadline, because for Verlander, the 31st wasn’t really a deadline. With $28 million salaries for each of the next two years, he wasn’t in much danger of being claimed on waivers; sure enough, he reportedly went unclaimed last week, and is again free to be traded to any team in baseball. And now that prospective buyers don’t have the distraction of other possible options, it might actually be easier for the Tigers to trade Verlander this month than it was in July.

Of course, easier doesn’t mean easy. As Jeff noted a month ago, there appears to be something of a gap between how the Tigers see Verlander and how the rest of the league sees him. Detroit seemingly is shopping him as if he’s still the ace he pitched like last season, not the average-ish starter he’s pitched like this season. And Jeff’s piece laid out why that isn’t a totally unreasonable position.

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 8/8/17

11:09
Paul Swydan:

What is Tuesday’s best matchup?

BOS (Sale) vs. TB (Pruitt) (14.5% | 20 votes)
 
COL (Marquez) vs. CLE (Kluber) (40.8% | 56 votes)
 
MIL (Garza) vs. MIN (Mejia) (0% | 0 votes)
 
STL (Wacha) vs. KC (Vargas) (4.3% | 6 votes)
 
LAD (Maeda) vs. ARI (Godley) (37.9% | 52 votes)
 
BAL (Hellickson) vs. LAA (Bridwell) (2.1% | 3 votes)
 
Other (0% | 0 votes)
 

Total Votes: 137
11:13
Paul Swydan:

How many HR would Barry Bonds have hit if he had played one last season, in 2008?

0-5 (2.4% | 4 votes)
 
6-10 (0.6% | 1 vote)
 
11-15 (3.0% | 5 votes)
 
16-20 (15.4% | 25 votes)
 
21-25 (21.6% | 35 votes)
 
26-30 (27.1% | 44 votes)
 
31-35 (14.8% | 24 votes)
 
36-40 (8.6% | 14 votes)
 
41+ (6.1% | 10 votes)
 

Total Votes: 162
9:02
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:02
Paul Swydan: One sec, still getting set up.

9:04
Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this thing.

9:04
Austin: Reynaldo Lopez had a great stretch from June-July, but his last three starts have been more pedestrian (15 IP, 8 ER, 9 BB). Cause for concern as he makes his White Sox MLB debut?

Read the rest of this entry »


The Players Who Market Themselves

This is Ashley MacLennan’s first piece as part of her August residency at FanGraphs. Ashley is a staff writer for Bless You Boys, the SB Nation blog dedicated to the Detroit Tigers, and runs her own site at 90 Feet From Home. She can also be found on Twitter. She’ll be contributing regularly here over the next month. Read the work of all our residents here.

On any given day while scrolling through Twitter, you can see Anthony Rizzo hawking Body Armor hydration drink or Tempurpedic mattresses. Bryce Harper will share an ad for his custom UnderArmor cleats, while a few seasons ago Joe Mauer was the face – or more accurately the hair – of Head and Shoulders shampoo.

Athletes lending their profiles to sell goods is nothing new. It’s a way for players to capitalize on endorsement deals, growing their portfolios, and helping bolster their own image. Brands want to take advantage of the All-American ideal portrayed by a sports star, and lend credibility to their products by attaching a famous name to the deal. Marketing 101.

What happens, though, when a player is the brand? There’s an enormous difference between simply selling something for a company and selling yourself. Two players have demonstrated in the past year the remarkable ability to build their own brand narrative and control how they are perceived, rather than just being the face of a product.

MLB players haven’t become ubiquitous in popular culture the way stars in other sports have. While the players themselves have remarkable talent, and fans already watching the game will know the names Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Miguel Cabrera, but a casual observer or non-fan on the street would be hard pressed to pick those players out of a lineup. Whether it’s the structural problems the sport presents — star players are involved in a fraction of a Major League game, unlike in other sports, where teams can make sure their best players are involved on nearly every play — or the failings of the teams and the league itself to market their stars, baseball players just aren’t the marketing behemoths that basketball and football players often are.

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities out there for players interested in marketing themselves, rather than leaving the heavy lifting to the league or their organization. What former Cubs catcher David Ross and Detroit Tigers second-baseman Ian Kinsler have done recently is demonstrate what happens when a player takes control of their own story, and uses the power of social media, television, and a bounty of available resources to help sell themselves (and perhaps a few products as well).

Kinsler has done well for himself on the field over the last several years, but has the kind of skills that often fly under the radar. He’s a career .275/.343/.448 hitter, a four-time All-Star, and a 2016 Gold Glove winner, but he’s not usually been regarded as a franchise player, despite performing like one. He’s precisely the kind of player who is beloved on his own team but gets little notice beyond that, in spite of turning highlight-reel double plays, or textbook perfect ball-drops.

Ian Kinsler is not a typical magnet for marketers. Because his appeal doesn’t have the same reach as bigger-name guys on the team like Miguel Cabrera or Justin Verlander, Kinsler is not the first choice for most companies. In spite of that, he has managed to craft an image for himself that mirrors his on-field persona.

In 2016, Warstic, the baseball bat company Kinsler co-owns with Ben Jenkins and White Stripes frontman Jack White, were approved for use in the MLB. Soon the bats were being sported by Kinsler and teammate Nick Castellanos in Tigers games and their popularity spread to other teams. Leading into the 2017 season, Kinsler and White loaned their individual talents to the promotion of Warstic by putting out a series of videos featuring Kinsler preparing for games as if he were a warrior heading into battle, while White’s music accompanied in the background. Kinsler, Tigers pitcher Daniel Norris, and Ben Jenkins were also featured in a short film ahead of the season in which the men learned sniper rifle techniques from Navy SEALs as a means to find their focus in the pressure of a game.

Even in a commercial where Kinsler promoted Beats by Dre headphones, his persona was the same. He is always careful about how he is portrayed, manipulating the medium to create a brand for himself. In every one of these ads he is the serious, contemplative warrior, preparing himself to face off against his enemies. The image crafted is that of a man who takes his sport and himself seriously. It is an effective method to maintain the image of a fierce competitor on the field, and a man whose life beyond the baseball diamond is a mystery, but one can almost picture him climbing onto a horse after the game and riding off into the sunset now that the battle is over.

Where Kinsler is intense and intimidating, former Cubs catcher David Ross has established himself as the loveable everyman, who is approachable, charming, and someone even a casual sports fan can find themselves falling in love with. Ross parlayed his role on the Cubs 2016 World Series victory team into a perfect example of catching lightning in a bottle.

Where his other teammates were still young and able to continue with the game, Ross understood his baseball years were over. A career .229/.316/.423 hitter, Ross spent most of his time in the majors as a backup catcher, playing for six teams, and never earning more than $3.1 million for a single season. He was not a superstar athlete. He does, however, have two World Series rings and an affable charm that makes him a perfect ambassador for unlikely baseball fans.

After a movie-perfect 2016 season, when most of the Cubs were home relaxing, Ross was working. He took the “Grandpa Rossy” image that made him a loveable star during the 2016 postseason, and turned it into a book deal, which itself then got a movie deal. He loaned his image to not one, but two cereals: Raisin Bran Crunch Apple Strawberry — which he promoted by inviting random Chicago commuters to join him for breakfast — and Grandpa Rossy Crunch.

The ultimate feather in Ross’s cap, however, was that he became the first Major League Baseball player to participate on ABC’s Dancing With the Stars, which he did almost immediately following the World Series. Ross, who made it to the Stars finale, won the hearts of viewers much as he did Cubs fans. The Dancing with the Stars finale netted about 8.8 million viewers, which is certainly much smaller than the 40.045 million who watch game seven of the World Series, but it was also a new audience Ross was appealing to. That pay wasn’t bad either. Though there are no hard and fast numbers, it appears participants who make it to the final round earn about $345,000.

Between the book deal, the promotions, the Dancing with the Stars appearances, and his new job as an ESPN commentator, Ross has managed to turn himself from a likeable bench player into an actual celebrity, despite being the kind of player who usually toils in obscurity.

While some players are content to lend their faces to a product, Kinsler and Ross have shown that there are ways for Major League players to build their own identities and market themselves outside of the game. With Major League Baseball struggling to connect fans its best players, perhaps the next generation of players will be more aggressive in marketing themselves.


Daily Prospect Notes: 8/8

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Michel Baez, RHP, San Diego (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 21   Org Rank: NR (signed before SD rankings)  Top 100: NR
Line: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 R, 9 K

Notes
I could probably reserve a place for Baez in this space every fifth day and not be let down. His fastball velocity has backed up a bit since extended (when he was routinely in the upper-90s) but is still sitting mid-90s with huge extension. Baez’s secondaries are also progressing, especially his running changeup, and he’ll flash a plus breaking ball and change a few times during the course of a start now. He’s come a long way since spring training when he was just a tall guy who threw hard.

Read the rest of this entry »