The Yankee Stadium Effect

Many are skeptical that Yankee Stadium II’s dimensions represent an exact replica of the original stadium’s — or, at least, a replica of the post-1976 version of old Yankee Stadium. The club contends on its official site that the distances from home plate to the outfields walls are identical to the previous park’s.

Because of the volume of home runs hit there since it opened, however, and because the outfield depths sure seem different, many have wondered if the club’s claims are true. The New York Times, for example, was compelled to explore the issue back in 2009.

When I asked if he still believed the dimensions were the same as before, as some folks have disputed with visual evidence, [Yankees general Brian] Cashman said, “I’ve been told they’re the same. I know they’re supposed to be the same.”

Still, without access or permission to survey the field, it’s never been possible to know exactly how honest any team is being with regard to its outfield dimensions depths. There are many who believed Fenway’s left-field wall was closer than the listed dimensions, and to anyone who has hit, pitched, or watched a game in New Yankee, the right-field wall seems awfully close. I would suggest that it’s unreasonably close to home plate.

We’ve never known which dimensions we could trust, though. Until now. It’s my understanding that the Doppler radar of Statcast is quite accurate. With that as backdrop, it’s my goal in this post to employ that radar technology to measure home runs that have passed just over the wall of Yankee Stadium to get a better sense of the park’s dimensions — especially those areas of the field that are left unmarked. Only five outfield depths are listed on the Yankee’s official website and posted on the outfield-wall locations. I was especially curious with regard to the unmarked territory in right.

Let’s begin. First in left field.

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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 5/3/17

12:01
Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

12:02
Dave Cameron: Nice to be back on the west coast after a trip to DC for Pitch Talks on Monday night.

12:02
hscer: thanks for doing Pitch Talks DC on Monday, “Previous Speaker,” great stuff as always

12:03
Dave Cameron: Thanks to the folks who came out and made it a fun night. I thoroughly enjoyed it.

12:03
The Average Sports Fan: Are the slow starts for the Royals and Blue Jays actually blessings in disguise? NO reason for misplaced hope. You are terrible, SELL!

12:03
Dave Cameron: The Blue Jays aren’t terrible, they just dug too big a hole.

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Daily Prospect Notes: 5/3

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Andres Gimenez, SS, New York NL (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 18   Org Rank: 5   Top 100: HM
Line: 1-for-4, 2B

Notes
It wasn’t an especially notable night for Gimenez, but his promotion to full-season ball is significant. Gimenez was a high-dollar Venezuelan signee and was lauded by international scouts for his polish; he’s also a teenager who spent last year in the Dominican Summer League. After passing a few weeks in extended spring training, he effectively skipped three levels (the Mets’ GCL, New York-Penn League, and Appalachian League affiliates) and has been sent to full-season ball. My full report from the Mets’ prospect list is here, he garnered overall top-100 consideration from me despite modest physical tools because he’s so likely to stay at short, make a lot of contact and, as he seems poised to do, move quickly through the system. Below are all the swings Gimenez took last night as well as some of what he did on the defensive side.

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KATOH’s Most-Improved Hitting Prospects So Far

Now that we’re nearly one month into the minor-league season, 2017 performances are starting to mean something. The 2017 sample size is still small, but it’s large enough at least to merit a look at those prospects who may be in the midst of a breakout. This article aims to do just that by calling attention to the 10 hitters who have most improved their KATOH+ projections over the season’s first few weeks. A reminder: a player’s KATOH forecast denotes his projected WAR total over the first six seasons of his major-league career.

Juan Soto, RF, Washington (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 4.0
Current KATOH+ Projection: 6.9

Soto destroyed the GCL last year, prompting the Nats to send him to full-season ball at the age of 18. An 18-year-old in the Sally League is noteworthy in and of itself. An 18-year-old striking out at a 9% clip while also hitting for some power is the stuff of a blue-chip prospect. If he continues to rake, he’ll likely be place highly on midseason lists. Eric Longenhagen recently checked in on Soto as part of his daily notes.

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FanGraphs Audio: A Tour of the NL East

Episode 737
Managing editor Dave Cameron is the guest on this edition of the program, during which he leads the guest on a tour of the National League’s easternmost division. There, one finds that the Mets are infested with injuries, that the Nationals are contending with the loss of their center fielder, and that three other clubs are also present.

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Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 46 min play time.)

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Manny Machado Had Strong Words For the Red Sox

Manny Machado went off on the Red Sox after tonight’s game. Frankly, it’s hard to blame him. For the second time in little more than a week, the Orioles superstar had a pitch thrown behind him by a Boston pitcher. This time it was Chris Sale, who sent Machado a message in the first inning of a game the Red Sox went on to win 5-2. Machado took Sale deep in the seventh inning, and his response to being headhunted was even more powerful than the bomb he hit over the Green Monster.

Here is snapshot of what an angry Machado had to say following the game:

“If you want to (bleep) hit me, hit me. Go ahead. (Bleep) hit me. Don’t let this (bleep) keep lingering (bleep) around, and keep trying to (bleep) hit people. It’s (bleep) bullshit. It’s (bleep) bullshit. MLB should do something about it. (Bleep) pitchers out there with (bleep) balls in their hand, throwing 100 MPH, trying to hit people. I have a (bleep) bat, too. I could go out there and crush somebody if I wanted to. But do you know what? I’ll get suspended for the year, and the pitcher will only get suspended for two games. That’s not cool.”

Machado is right. Throwing behind a hitter isn’t cool. Yes, the bad blood began when his late, hard slide injured Dustin Pedroia, but it appeared as the episode was behind both teams, and that cooler heads would prevail. Chris Sale thought otherwise, and Machado didn’t like that too much.


The Upside of the Chaotic National League

On Effectively Wild the other day, I mentioned to Ben Lindbergh how so much recent news has been kind of depressing. Madison Bumgarner is super good, and now he won’t play for a while. Noah Syndergaard is super good, and now he won’t play for a while, either. Adam Eaton is super good, and he won’t play again for an even longer while. Shelby Miller is done for the season because of a torn elbow ligament. Starling Marte is serving a half-year suspension for inexplicable cheating. The Giants are disappointing, the Mets are disappointing, and so far everything I’ve mentioned directly involves the National League.

Yet for any one thing that goes wrong for a team, that can be spun as good news for rivals. Not that I think the Dodgers were specifically hoping for Bumgarner to get injured or anything, but, I’m losing track. There’s obvious downside in so many of the things that have happened in the NL. No one likes when good players can’t play. But on the plus side, doors have been opened. Thanks to the events of April and the first day of May, the National League is a lot less predictable. Which, to me, makes it a lot less boring.

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Dallas Keuchel’s High-Wire Act

Just after sunrise on August 6, 1974, Philippe Petit began his walk across a 200-foot stretch of wire spanning New York’s Twin Towers. He and his assistants had prepared the wire overnight, using a crossbow to connect the one-inch-wide walk way from rooftop to rooftop, 1,350 feet above Lower Manhattan. Petit completed eight walks that morning before being ordered down, and arrested, by New York City police. The Telegraph (U.K.) recounted the daring feat.

[Petit] felt so confident that he took to showboating… The Frenchman is shown [via photograph] lying down on the wire while balancing his bar across his chest with his arms well away. At one point the 24-year-old hung by his heels….

He later said: “To me, it’s really so simple: life should be lived on the edge. You have to exercise rebellion, to refuse to tape yourself to the rules, to refuse your own success, to refuse to repeat yourself, to see every day, every year, every idea as a true challenge. Then you will live your life on the tightrope.”

Petit’s chosen line of work is not for everyone. That said, there might be some wisdom in his view on how to live regardless of your profession.

Nearer ground level this year — in fact, on a pitching mound for the Astros — Dallas Keuchel is conducting his own tightrope walk. A former seventh-round draft pick with just an 89-mph fastball, Keuchel has always been compelled to find ways to adapt and push boundaries. Last month, FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan noted Keuchel’s latest makeover — namely, that the left-hander is going “Full Ziegler” on us.

Wrote Sullivan:

Nearly everything has been at the knees or below, just like how Ziegler works, and at least to this point, it’s been working. As usual, I’ve made some use of Baseball Savant. Using the filter options, I selected the five lowest pitch-zone areas. There are 220 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 100 pitches in both 2016 and 2017. Among them, last year, Keuchel had the No. 31 low-pitch rate. This year, he has the No. 2 low-pitch rate, slightly behind only teammate Luke Gregerson. Keuchel’s low-pitch-rate increase of 17 percentage points is the fourth-greatest, and he already worked mostly down. Now it’s like he doesn’t even pay attention to the other spots.

Keuchel is off to an excellent start this season with the Ziegler approach, producing a 5-0 record and 1.21 ERA. But I wonder how much longer this success can last.

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Grading the Pitches: 2016 AL Starters’ Four-Seamers

Previously
Changeup: AL Starters / NL Starters.
Curveball: AL Starters / NL Starters.
Cutters and Splitters: MLB Starters.

May has arrived, and sample sizes are beginning to mount. We’ve still got a little ways to go in our review of 2016 qualifying starters’ pitch quality before turning our attention solely to 2017. We’ve already looked at changeups, curves, cutters and splitters; today, it’s the four-seam fastball’s turn. We’ll begin by looking at 2016 ERA qualifiers from the American League.

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Francisco Lindor’s Finding His Inner Mookie Betts

I spend a lot of time thinking about who could be the next Mike Trout. There’s not a good answer yet. Nobody is the next Mike Trout. Francisco Lindor is not yet as good as Mike Trout. Do not under-appreciate Mike Trout! He’s amazing. Everybody take a moment to remember how Mike Trout is the very best that there is. Okay, good, thank you for doing that.

When I think about other potential 9-WAR players, though, my default is to consider elite defenders who might suddenly add some power. Because, of course, they’d be starting from a high baseline, and how many players have we seen add considerable pop over the past few seasons? I’ve had my eye on certain guys, and it’s Lindor who’s presently catching my attention. Lindor is an elite defender. Check. He occupies a premium defensive position. Check. We know he has a steady and disciplined approach. Check. Now we could be seeing the emergence of power. Lindor is 23 years old.

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