Do All the Free-Agent Sluggers Have a Home?

It’s true that, if you look at the free agents who remain unsigned this offseason, you’ll find a lot of power still available. Franklin Gutierrez, Mike Napoli, Mark Trumbo: all three produced an isolated-slugging figure greater than .200 last season. All three are projected by Steamer to produce better than a .195 ISO in 2017. All three have yet to find a team for the 2017 season.

Given the general demand for power, you might wonder why so many of these sluggers don’t have jobs yet. A look both at the supply and the demand in the league reveals a possible cause, however: handedness. There might be an obstacle, in other words, to matching those free agents with the right teams.

To illustrate my point, let me utilize the depth charts at RosterResource. What’s nice about RosterResource, for the purposes of this experiment, is that the site presents both a “go-to” starting lineup and also a projected bench. Here’s a link to the Cubs page to give you a sense of what I mean.

In most cases, a team will roster four non-catcher bench players. Looking over the current depth charts, however, I find 15 teams with only three non-catcher bench players on the depth chart (not to mention five additional bench players who are projected to record less than 0 WAR). For the purpose of this piece, let’s refer to these as “open positions.”

Fifteen! That’s a lot. It means we’re likely to see quite a few signings before the season begins. Of course, not all these openings are appropriate for the power bats remaining on the market. Most of those guys are corner types, if they can play the field at all, while some of those 15 clubs have needs at positions that require greater defensive skill.

For example, Anaheim might need an infielder or a third baseman for their open bench spot. The White Sox need a right-handed center fielder to platoon with lefty Charlie Tilson. Detroit needs a center fielder, maybe a right-handed one — and in the process of writing this piece, they got one in the form of the newly acquired Mike Mahtook maybe. If Mel Rojas Jr. can’t play center in Atlanta, they need a (right-handed?) center fielder, too. The Yankees may need a third baseman — and, if not that, definitely someone with some defensive ability on the infield.

So that reduces the number of open positions to 10. That’s 10 slots that could be filled by an offensive piece with little defensive value. Here are the teams that, by my estimation, have an opening for a slugger: Baltimore, Boston, Chicago (NL), Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Oakland, Seattle, Tampa, Texas, and Toronto.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1008: Tenth Time’s the Charm

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan analyze the Hall of Fame voting results and extend their unlikely Lenny Harris discussion streak, then answer listener emails about restructuring the BBWAA ballot, restructuring Mike Trout, unbreakable records, eclipses, parity, and more.

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Bagwell, Raines, and Rodriguez Enter the Hall

The 2017 Hall of Fame class is a party of three, and voting totals suggest the electorate is becoming more accepting and forgiving.

Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, and Ivan Rodriguez were inducted into The National Baseball Hall of Fame on Wednesday, as results of the Baseball Writers Association of America’s voting were revealed on MLB Network.

Raines appeared on 86.0% of ballots in his last year of eligibility. His candidacy was promoted passionately by many, including former FanGraphs contributor Jonah Keri.

With Rodriguez’ induction to the Hall on his first ballot appearance — and the appearance both of Barry Bonds (53.8%) and Roger Clemens (51.8%) on more than 50% of ballots for the first time — voters appear to be softening against those suspected of and tied to PED use.

In 2016, Bonds appeared on 44.3% of ballots, Clemens 45.2%.

Yahoo’s Jeff Passan noted only three players who’ve appeared on 50% of ballots at one point have failed, later, to enter the Hall.

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Kole Calhoun and the Best Non-Prospects

Every Angels player, I’m sure, loves Mike Trout, but every Angels player is also competitive, and on some level self-interested. No one wants to be so consistently over-shadowed, so I’m happy for Kole Calhoun today, as he gets a few moments to himself. Calhoun has long been tremendously underrated, but now he’s in the news thanks to a new multi-year contract extension that’ll set him up for life. It’s nothing that sexy, at least not for anyone not already a member of the Calhoun family, but this is one opportunity for Angels fans to think about Calhoun without also thinking about the guy who plays beside him.

You can’t really write about Calhoun without writing about how he’s under-appreciated. He’s under-appreciated as a big-leaguer, but it dates back further than that. When he was in the minors, Calhoun was never really on any major prospect radar. Neil Weinberg investigated that a couple years back. And in 2010, Calhoun was an eighth-round draft pick. The Angels selected 12 players before him, and their combined WAR is -1.1. Cam Bedrosian is nice, but he’s no above-average everyday outfielder.

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Wil Myers Cashes In on Rare Deal

Wil Myers was always going to be the San Diego Padres’ highest-paid player in 2017, regardless of whether he signed a new contract. In arbitration, Myers had around $4 million coming to him, which is quite a bit more than Yangervis Solarte’s $2.1 million, the Padres’ other highest-paid player. Myers figures to provide a 25% increase on the $12 million already guaranteed to other players on the roster. This, of course, ignores the roughly roughly $35 million to be collected by Jedd Gyorko, Hector Olivera, James Shields, and Melvin Upton Jr. as they play for other teams.

Given the incredible financial flexibility the Padres have, it makes sense for the Padres to lock up their best player for the long term, and it appears they’ve done that, announcing a six-year, $83 million deal with Myers, plus an option. Players just entering arbitration like Wil Myers seldom receive contract extensions that buy out multiple free-agent years, so this one is a bit unusual and costly for San Diego.

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Jacoby Ellsbury Shattered an All-Time Record

The Indians just signed Brandon Guyer to a very modest contract extension. If you know Guyer, it’s for one of two reasons. A small number of you might know Guyer personally. A greater number of you know Guyer for his skill at being hit by things. Guyer is a specialist when it comes to finding an alternate path to first base. Here he is, doing his thing:

Call it cheap if you want, but what works works. Despite being a part-time player, Guyer just led the league in hit-by-pitches. For his career, he’s been hit by a pitch 66 times, while he’s been walked on four balls 61 times. Just last season, Guyer was hit by a pitch in 9% of his plate appearances, a rate which was 10 times higher than the league average. Ten times higher than the league average! Guyer is a statistical weirdo, but you have to love him for it. Unless, you know, you’re pitching.

Guyer is a bit of a competitive annoyance because of his specialty. And yet, as the freaks go, he’s out-classed. Guyer specializes at one arguably cheap way to reach base. Jacoby Ellsbury specializes at another. We’ve gone over this before, but we’re doing it again. Last year, Guyer’s rate of reaching by HBP was 10 times the league average. Last year, Ellsbury’s rate of reaching on catcher’s interference was 94 times the league average. Ellsbury managed one of the most extraordinary statistical accomplishments in the history of the game.

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/18/17

2:38
Dan Szymborski: I THOUGHT TODAY WAS TUESDAY!

2:38
Bret: How does the Jays offseason look after the Jose Bautista signing?

2:38
Dan Szymborski: Decent, not specatular.

2:38
Chris: How much fun is it to check out TalkingChop and see so many people adamantly fight against the validity of sabermetrics. We have some heated Matt Kemp discussions going on if you want a “fun” read

2:39
Dan Szymborski: I’ve been in some of those. I already flamed that guy with the weird metaphysical post.

2:39
CarrotJuice: Over/under on number of strokes you expect to have tonight

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What Would a Modern Tim Raines Look Like?

The Baseball Hall of Fame will announce the 2017 class of inductees today, and thanks to the work of Ryan Thibodaux, we can be pretty certain that the Hall is going to welcome Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines to Cooperstown this summer. Ivan Rodriguez might join them, depending on the percentage of votes he gets from people who haven’t revealed their ballots publicly, while Trevor Hoffman and Vladimir Guerrero look like they’re going to get close enough where their election next year is highly likely.

But the story of the year is Raines, who will get elected in his final opportunity. In no small part due to the lobbying efforts of Jonah Keri, Raines will likely clear the 75% threshold after getting 24.3% of the vote on his first time on the ballot, back in 2008, then falling to 22.6% the next year. Raines’ election is another sign that players are being evaluated differently now, with the triple crown stats losing their long-held positions of canon, and instead a player’s total contributions now being considered.

But I know that, for a lot of people — even many inside the game — it’s still tough to think of Raines as a superstar. He was a corner outfielder who didn’t hit home runs. He had the profile of a center fielder, but not the defense to go along with it. He was a square peg in a world of round holes, and because so much of his value came from walks and stolen bases, he wasn’t really seen as a superstar when he played.

These days, though, we have better tools to evaluate players, and things like wRC+ have allowed us to give different types of players their due, even if they don’t fit the traditional mold of production. So, just for fun, let’s take a look at what Raines would be if he were an amalgamation of modern players.

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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 1/18/17

12:08
Dave Cameron: Sorry about the delay!

12:08
Dave Cameron: I’m here.

12:08
Dave Cameron: I had to finish up a Tim Raines piece before starting the chat, which you can read here. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-would-a-modern-tim-raines-look-like/

12:08
Edgar Martinez Hype Man: Ad Free Fangraphs is so much better. Does Edgar Martinez get in next year?

12:09
Dave Cameron: Ad-free FanGraphs is so much better. If you haven’t signed up yet, you really should. Better for you, better for us, better for the planet.

As for Edgar, I think his last ballot in two years will be his shot. He’s going to need the Raines “are you sure you don’t want to vote for me?” pressure.

12:10
Erik: What do you think of the Saunders signing? Combined with the Kendrick trade, it looks like the Phillies have taken a lot of plate appearances away from their recently arrived or soon-to-arrive young outfielders like Altherr, Quinn, Williams, and Cozens. Will they have enough game time available to give those guys looks to see if they’ll be valuable future pieces?

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Tyson Ross and Risk vs. Uncertainty

Tyson Ross was one of the more intriguing names available in this winter’s historically weak crop of free-agent pitching.

At his best, Ross is something of the Rich Hill of sliders. From 2012 to -15, Ross led baseball in slider usage (38.7%) among pitchers tossing at least 300 innings. The pitch was so effective, he was often a two-pitch pitcher.

Among pitchers to throw at least 300 innings, Ross posted the 12th-best swinging-strike percentage in the game (11.2%) during that three-year period, and his 3.34 FIP ranked 34th in the game. Over that same stretch, Ross tallied 9.5 WAR. He was one of the better starting pitchers in the game.

His slider was still effective on the only day he pitched in 2016. Just ask Carl Crawford:

Ross was quietly becoming one of the more valued starting pitchers in the game. Then 2016 happened.

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