Spencer Horwitz is hoping to show that what he did in the minors can be replicated in the majors, and so far, he’s off to a strong start. Displaying what my colleagues Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin called “a patient, contact-driven approach at the plate,” the lefty-hitting Blue Jays utilityman has slashed .310/.430/.479 with an equal amount of walks and strikeouts over 86 plate appearances since being called up from Triple-A in early June. By comparison, his numbers down on the farm include a .307/.413/.471 slash line and roughly the same number of strikeouts and free passes over parts of five professional seasons. The extent to which Horwitz can continue having this level of success against major league pitching remains to be seen — last season’s 15-game cup of coffee yielded lesser results — but his skillset and upside are promising.

In the latest installment of our Talks Hitting series, the 26-year-old Horwitz discussed how he’s learned and evolved as a hitter over the years, from watching Manny Machado flicking the barrel to challenging himself with high velocity off of machines.

———

David Laurila: Let’s start with one of my favorite ice-breaker questions in this series: Do you view hitting as more of an art or as more of a science?

Spencer Horwitz: “Oh, good question. I would say a blend of both. I’ve been blessed in a lot of ways with some hitter-ish things that I can’t explain, but I’ve also learned a lot through the science of hitting.”

Laurila: When did that learning start?

Horwitz: “I think it started when I was in high school, not really knowing what I was looking at, but watching really good hitters and trying to emulate them. Later, I was able to put some true numbers to the data that I was collecting in my mind.” Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

With less than four weeks to go until the July 30 trade deadline, now’s a great time to start taking a lay of the land and determining which teams will be buying, which will be selling, and which are caught in the middle. I looked at the AL teams on Tuesday, so today, let’s cover the NL clubs. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Tampa Bay Rays. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the fourth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Phillies reliever José Ruiz threatening Ryan Webb’s career record for games finished without a save, Aaron Judge’s Hall of Fame case, the Mariners having a .540 winning percentage, just as Jerry Dipoto foretold (sort of), Dallas Keuchel being back in the big leagues, the White Sox, weirdly, dictating the trade deadline, and the collective performance of the Boras Four (or Five), then (54:27) answer a listener email about catchers fooling pitchers into issuing bad challenges under the challenge system, and (1:01:13) meet major leaguers Spencer Bivens, Jake Bloss, and Jacob Bosiokovic.

Audio intro: Ted O., “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Alex Glossman and Ali Breneman, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to GF with no saves leaders
Link to Webb/Albers wiki
Link to Ben on Webb/Albers
Link to Webb/Albers on EW
Link to Triple Crown redundancy EW
Link to EW on Dipoto and .540
Link to Dipoto clip
Link to Dipoto follow-up
Link to .540 spreadsheet
Link to MLBTR on Montgomery
Link to MLBTR on Luzardo
Link to MLBTR on Flaherty
Link to 2023 ABS article 1
Link to 2023 ABS article 2
Link to 2024 ABS article
Link to MaML wiki
Link to B-Ref’s new debuts
Link to Buchanan on Bivens
Link to Bivens on Twitter
Link to Bivens on Insta
Link to Bloss call-up article
Link to Eric’s Astros prospects
Link to Georgetown major leaguers
Link to “The” OSU explainer
Link to “Hoya Saxa” explainer
Link to Cronin on EW
Link to MLBTR on Bosiokovic
Link to MLB.com on Bosiokovic
Link to Dispatch on Bosiokovic
Link to ballpark meetup forms
Link to meetup organizer form

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We’re going to start with a little quiz. Here’s how it works. I’ll show you a short video clip. There’s something weird about the clip. Don’t make it full screen, at least on your first viewing. I just want you to see whether you can spot what exactly that weird thing is. Maybe you’ll catch it the first time you watch. Maybe it’ll take a few more views. Don’t scroll down too far or you’ll see the answer in the paragraph after the video, and that would defeat the point of our little exercise.

Ready? Here we go.

Did you see it? Did you not see it? Am I just vamping for two more paragraphs in order to give you a better chance of watching the video without spoiling the surprise?

Maaaaaybeeeee. Read the rest of this entry »

Jackson Merrill has been powering up for the Padres. Over his last 18 games, the 21-year-old rookie outfielder has homered nine times while slashing a robust .343/.371/.791 with a 228 wRC+. His seasonal numbers aren’t nearly as stellar — the second coming of Barry Bonds he’s not — but they are good enough to have him firmly in contention for NL Rookie of the Year honors at the halfway mark. San Diego’s hot-hitting youngster has a dozen dingers to go with a 125 wRC+ and a .291/.325/.459 slash line. Moreover, his 2.5 WAR is tied for tops (along with Milwaukee’s Joey Ortiz) among first-year players in the senior circuit.

For a few years now, one of Merrill’s goals — and expectations — has been to hit for more power than many people projected he would when he was drafted 27th overall in 2021. When I talked to him for Sunday Notes during the 2022 Arizona Fall League season, the Baltimore native told me that he could “definitely drive the ball,” adding that he was looking to get stronger and produce more pop going forward. When the Padres visited Fenway Park last weekend, I asked Merrill how he feels he’s progressed in that area.

“It’s not trying to force extra power, it’s just kind of getting adjusted to the pitching and letting it come naturally,” said Merrill, who proceeded to punish Red Sox pitching to the tune of 15 total bases over three games. “When I first got up here, I was still getting accustomed to everything, and getting my timing and my pitch selection right. The power comes naturally when you get your swing feeling good and are putting the barrel on the ball more.” Read the rest of this entry »

Willie Mays was already a superstar by the time the Giants moved across the country following the 1957 season, yet the denizens of San Francisco did not exactly embrace him. They took much more quickly to Orlando Cepeda, who homered against the Dodgers in his major league debut on April 15, 1958, the team’s first game at Seals Stadium, its temporary new home. The slugging 20-year-old first baseman, nicknamed “The Baby Bull” — in deference to his father Pedro “The Bull” Cepeda, a star player in his own right in their native Puerto Rico — was a perfect fit for San Francisco and its culture. He helped to infuse excitement into what had been a sixth-place team the year before, winning NL Rookie of the Year honors in 1958 and kicking off a 17-year career that included an MVP award, a World Series championship, and an induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame, not to mention a statue outside Oracle Park.

Sadly, 10 days after Mays’ death at the age of 93, the 86-year-old Cepeda passed away as well. The Giants and the Cepeda family announced his death on Friday night — fittingly, during a game against the Dodgers; fans at Oracle Park stood to observe a moment of silence. “Our beloved Orlando passed away peacefully at home this evening, listening to his favorite music and surrounded by his loved ones,” said Nydia Fernandez, his second of three wives, in the statement. No cause of death was provided.

As the second Black Puerto Rican to play in the AL or NL, after Roberto Clemente, Cepeda became a hero in his homeland as well as a favorite of Giants fans. He spent nine seasons with the Giants (1958-66) before trades to the Cardinals (1966–68) and Braves (1969–72), followed by brief stints with the A’s (1972), Red Sox (1973), and Royals (1974) at the tail end of his career. The 6-foot-2, 210-pound righty was a middle-of-the-lineup force on three pennant winners, including the 1967 champion Cardinals, and was selected for an All-Star team 11 times, including two per year from 1959–62; he was the first Puerto Rican player to start an All-Star Game in the first of those seasons. He was the first player to win both the Rookie of the Year and MVP awards unanimously; Albert Pujols is the only one to replicate that feat. Cepeda finished his career with 2,351 hits, 379 homers, 142 steals, and a lifetime batting line of .297/.350/.499 (133 OPS+).

Not everything came easily for Cepeda. If not for the pitcher-friendliness of the Giants’ home ballparks — first Seals Stadium and then Candlestick Park — as well as a series of knee injuries that led to 10 surgeries, he might have hit at least 500 home runs. His path to the Hall of Fame took an extreme detour due to a conviction for smuggling marijuana, which resulted in a 10-month stint in federal prison as well as a humiliating fall from grace in Puerto Rico. Only after his release and his conversion to Buddhism was he able to rehabilitate his image and work his way back into the game’s good graces, a process that culminated with his election to the Hall of Fame by the Veterans Committee in 1999, 25 years after his final game. He was the second Puerto Rican player inducted, preceded only by Clemente. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the one (and only one) case where the zombie runner was warranted, why pitchers throw strikes to Aaron Judge (10:00), and MLB’s new Home Run Derby rules (21:11), then answer listener emails about how different baseball would be if runners didn’t have to tag up (34:49), the best arguments for full ABS over the challenge system (49:56), and what would happen if ejected players couldn’t be replaced (1:11:16), plus a few follow-ups (1:22:57).

Audio intro: Jimmy Kramer, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Harold Walker, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Rockies-Sox game
Link to Doyle’s catch
Link to zone rate leaderboard
Link to Judge’s zone rates
Link to Petriello on Judge
Link to Judge’s 40-game streak
Link to Judge’s 50-game streak
Link to lineup-protection explainer
Link to new Derby rules
Link to Calcaterra on the HRD
Link to Levi on the HRD
Link to Judge’s Derby victory
Link to Strike Four
Link to Sheehan on ABS 1
Link to Sheehan on ABS 2
Link to strike zone changes
Link to Triple-A ABS change
Link to Ben on ABS
Link to Meg on the penalty box
Link to listener emails database
Link to John Poff’s fundraiser
Link to ballpark meetup forms
Link to meetup organizer form

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
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 EW Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

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Blake Treinen has spent an entire career as one of the best sinker-heavy relievers in all of baseball. Since his debut, he’s been one of the best relievers in baseball — period. That sounds like hyperbole but it isn’t. From 2014 through 2022, he ranked ninth in FIP-based WAR and fourth in RA9-WAR among all relief pitchers. He also ranked second in groundball rate among relievers who threw 400 or more innings. That’s elite performance, and he did it with a consistent attack of sinkers and sliders.

As his career has worn on, Treinen has made one big shift: He started throwing a huge sweeping slider. He was an early poster boy for the sweeper revolution. From 2014 through 2020, his slider averaged about an inch of horizontal movement. Starting in 2021, he changed the way he threw it, and that number blew up to nearly seven inches. That turbo-charged his strikeout rate, and 2021 was one of his better seasons despite intermittent command problems.

Those two things encompass most of what people know about Treinen. He gets a ton of grounders and he throws a big old sweeper. In fact, he was at the vanguard of a pitcher type that now seems to populate every major league bullpen: the sinker/sweeper righty. You can picture this guy, even if you don’t know his name on every single squad. He lives on the east/west plane, and produces plenty of ugly swings and probably a hit batter or two when his sinker veers into the righty batter’s box seemingly out of nowhere. Read the rest of this entry »

Tim Herrin is quietly having one of this year’s best seasons among pitchers who are unlikely to be named to the American League All-Star team later this month. The 27-year-old left-hander has come out of the Cleveland Guardians bullpen 38 times and boasts a 1.07 ERA and 2.48 FIP over 33 2/3 innings. Moreover, he’s punched out 34 batters, and none of the 18 hits he’s surrendered have left the yard.

Uncle Charlie has been his primary weapon. Herrin has thrown his curveball 40.6% of the time this season, the second-highest percentage — behind only Kansas City’s Nick Anderson at 45.1% — among pitchers who have worked at least 30 innings. The usage represents a marked change from a year ago. In his 2023 rookie season, Herrin threw his curveball just 12.2% of the time while logging a 5.53 ERA and 3.87 FIP.

Herrin discussed his hook prior to a recent game at Cleveland’s Progressive Field.

———

David Laurila: Is the curveball your best pitch? You’ve certainly been throwing a lot of them.

Tim Herrin: “Yeah, I mean, the usage is up a lot compared to previous years. It’s a pitch I worked on throughout the offseason, trying to be able to command it a little bit better. It used to be more of a two-strike strikeout pitch, and now I can use it to get ahead in counts as well as to put guys away. It’s been a good pitch for me.” Read the rest of this entry »