The Cubs Just Played a Month of Very Mediocre Baseball

It’s still rather difficult to craft an argument against the Chicago Cubs as the best team in baseball, at least in my opinion. I mean, shoot, they’ve outscored their opponents by 139 runs for the season, and that’s 34 more than the next-best team, and 50 more than the next-next best team. They’ve got an MVP candidate (favorite?) in Kris Bryant, and they’ve got perhaps the second-best pitcher in the world in Jake Arrieta. The lineup’s still deep, the rotation’s still deep. They still play defense, and they still run the bases. It’s the same roster that was undoubtedly the best roster just a month ago, and the same roster that the projections, whether it be ZiPS, Steamer, or PECOTA, think is clearly the best in the sport.

But, here’s the thing. The Cubs no longer have the best record — they’ve barely got the second-best record — and that’s kinda crazy, considering it was barely a month ago that they had the best record in the sport by 6.5 games, with an even better BaseRuns record at the time.

Except, lately — and pretty much since that moment — things haven’t been going so hot. I created a little infographic to help put things into perspective. Hope this does the trick:

CubsBeforeAfter

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FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron on the Horror, the Horror

Episode 666
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. During this edition of FanGraphs Audio he examines Boston’s recent trades for Aaron Hill and Brad Ziegler, whether it’s another case of Dave Dombrowski overpaying with prospects for present help; discusses his trade-value series and the challenges of evaluating players (like Jake Lamb) whose current production deviates wildly from previously established levels; and also addresses the omission of Clayton Kershaw from the list entirely.

Also, note: the Practical Analytics portion of the program wanders accidentally into the province of Real Talk. Listeners are encouraged to skip roughly to 16:00 if they have little interest in such matters.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 51 min play time.)

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The Adjustments That Made the All-Stars

Most All-Stars weren’t born into baseball this way. Most of them had to alter their approach, or their mechanics, in order to find that a-ha moment. They threw a pitch differently, or decided to pull the ball more, or changed their swing, and then found a run of sustained success that put them in the All-Star game that’s being played tonight.

So, given fairly fettered access to the All-Stars from both leagues, that was the question I posed: what was the big adjustment, mechanical or approach-wise, that brought you to this podium today?

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Effectively Wild Episode 923: The Jerry Dipoto Report Card

Ben and Sam talk to Meg Rowley about how Jerry Dipoto’s flurry of offseason moves for the Mariners worked out over the first half of the season.


The Worst Called Ball of the First Half

A few months ago, Carson ran his broadcaster crowdsourcing project. When the results rolled in, reviews for the White Sox home TV broadcast were mixed. That being said, people had a lot of good things to say about Jason Benetti, who’s a newer presence to the production. I bring this up because I’m about to quote Benetti, and I’m about to quote Benetti because, well, you’ll understand. What did the worst called ball of the season’s first half look like? We’ll get to that. But here’s the White Sox TV reaction:

Benetti: Oh, that’s ball one. And maybe only because Perez dropped it.

Stone: Right down the middle, belt-high.

Benetti: Some folks on the web like to pick out the worst non-strike call of the season. That gets calculated by some baseball fans who watch the game at length. And we — that is a definite possibility for worst ball of the season.

You’re all right, Jason Benetti. You’re all right. And you nailed that son of a bitch.

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July 2 Scouting Reports: Best of the Rest

Below are brief writeups on the other relevant prospects from this year’s July 2 class of International Free Agents, many of whom have complete tool grades on the Sortable Board which can be found here. For complete scouting reports on my top 25, bang it here (1-10) and here (11-25). If you’re an obsessive autodidact, I wrote about the implications of the penalties levied upon Boston for their improprieties as well as two of the best young prospects left in Cuba.

Pitchers

Luis Noguera, LHP, Venezuela (Colorado Rockies, $600,000)

Noguera has a projectable body and solid repertoire that projects to average on all fronts. His fastball only sits in the mid-80s and will touch 91 but we’re talking about a well-framed teenager here so it’s likely the velo takes a step forward in the next few years. The changeup, curveball and command should all be of major-league quality but nothing projects to plus, which makes Noguera a likely back-end starter at maturity.

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Jacoby Ellsbury Is Out of Control

You should always begin from the premise of, they’re all amazing. Every player in the major leagues — every player is amazing. The worst player you’ve ever seen on your favorite team possessed the sort of raw talent most baseball players could only dream of. Given that, in this age of information, I absolutely love the data that allows individual players to stand out. They’re the freaks among the freaks. Take pitchers. This season, Aroldis Chapman has thrown 48 pitches at least 102 miles per hour. The guy in second place has nine. Or, take hitters! We can do this now. This season, Giancarlo Stanton has hit six baseballs at least 118 miles per hour. The guy in second place has one. It’s unbelievable that anyone would stand out. Those are some of the most delicious statistics.

Now, pitch velocity? That’s a skill thing. Batted-ball velocity? That’s also a skill thing. What I’m about to talk about isn’t exactly a skill thing in the same sense. But I want you to know something about Jacoby Ellsbury. I need you to know something about Jacoby Ellsbury. In what way does Jacoby Ellsbury most stand out from the crowd? Eight times already this season, Ellsbury has reached base on catcher’s interference. The guy in second place has done it twice. Ellsbury has already tied the all-time record for a season. It is the All-Star break.

I made a note to write something about this a few weeks ago, when Ellsbury was at six. Then it happened a seventh time on July 1, and it happened an eighth time on July 4. What’s funny is I already wrote about this phenomenon in August 2013. Back then, Ellsbury seemed weird because he’d reached on interference four times. Already this season, he’s doubled that. Here’s Ellsbury’s entire career, and the last decade of the rest of Major League Baseball, in terms of times reaching on catcher’s interference.

jacoby-ellsbury-catchers-interference

It’s not a new thing, and it is a new thing. It’s not a new thing, in that Ellsbury has done this a bunch of times before, and it’s even factored into advance scouting reports. Other teams have long warned their catchers about Ellsbury’s stance and swing path. What’s new is this rate. Eight times, already, in a half-year. If other teams are learning, they’re not showing any evidence. Ellsbury has taken 0.33% of all big-league plate appearances this year. He’s drawn 32% of all catcher’s interference calls. It is genuine silliness. C.J. Cron, Aaron Hill — they’ve reached twice on such interference, which is weird enough. With Ellsbury, he’s reached on catcher’s interference twice as often as he’s homered.

Here’s the most recent case. On July 4, Ellsbury swung and caught a piece of Dioner Navarro’s glove. Ellsbury still hit the baseball, and he hit it fairly well, but it was also a routine fly out. The only difference was Ellsbury remained at first base after running down the line.

A side view for you, showing how subtle this can be:

It was so subtle, in fact, that on the White Sox broadcast, there were 89 seconds that passed between Ellsbury making contact and the announcers saying what had happened to allow Ellsbury to reach base. As Ellsbury stood on first, here’s how the following plate appearance began:

ellsbury-2

The scoreboard up there says none on, two out. Actually, there was one on, with one out, which is why James Shields worked from the stretch, and looked over at the bag. The White Sox broadcast didn’t know to expect that Ellsbury could pull this off. The Yankees broadcast was on it. They’ve seen this happen enough. And also, while actual catcher’s interference can be subtle, the sign for catcher’s interference is anything but.

ellsbury-interference

Umpire: look at this guy
Umpire: this guy is an idiot

For what it’s worth, the interference isn’t always subtle. On July 1, Ellsbury reached on Derek Norris‘ interference. Behold:

It feels cheap, maybe. Like reaching base on a technicality. It is reaching base on a technicality, but it’s important to recognize that Ellsbury isn’t doing anything against the rules. I can’t imagine this is something he tries to do on purpose, because he’s up there trying to hit the baseball, and you can’t be thinking about two things at once. Other hitters stand even further back in the box, and this is just a part of Ellsbury’s swing — his natural path sometimes takes him a good distance backward. Catchers are supposed to know about that. They’re supposed to move a few inches back. Many of them do. Obviously, not all of them do. Ellsbury’s on an incredible pace. None of the interferences have won the Yankees a ballgame, but a time on base is a time on base. Ellsbury’s “effective” OBP is higher than his real OBP by 15 points.

According to that linked article from the New York Times, Pete Rose holds the career record with 29 times reaching base on catcher’s interference. Ellsbury, today, stands at 22. He has an excellent shot of making the record his own. I suppose he has some shot of doing it this very year.


Player’s View: The Best Non-Knuckleballer Knuckleballs

There aren’t many knuckleball pitchers in baseball, but there are a lot of would-be knuckleball pitchers. Most everyone has tinkered with the butterfly. It’s common for players — particularly position players — to mix in knucklers when playing catch before games. A handful of them can really make it dance.

Who are the best among the wannabe Wakefields and Niekros? To answer the question most accurately that would require extensive polling throughout both leagues. I considered tackling the task, but ultimately decided that such an exercise was a bit too frivolous.

Querying a cross-section of players was far more practical. I talked to a dozen, most of whom have experience either throwing or catching the game’s most enigmatic and entertaining pitch. Along with asking who has the best they’ve seen, I had several of them to assess the quality of their own knuckleball.

———

Alex Avila, White Sox catcher: “It would have to be Danny Worth. He’s actually pitched in a game with it. We were with the Tigers, it was a blowout game, and he came in. He’s got a great arm — he’s an infielder — and he’d always throw a knuckleball warming up, just messing around. He threw a bunch of them, and it was dancing pretty good.”

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The Seldom-Seen Two-Out RBI Bunt

Yesterday, I was very casually listening to the radio as the Mariners played the Royals. I wasn’t paying attention to any details, really; it was the sort of listening where I wasn’t truly listening, and I could be reached only by an announcer raising his voice. An announcer did raise his voice when, in the fourth inning, the Mariners stretched their lead to 3-0. A run was driven home by Ketel Marte, and you can see the play right here:

Among the significant factors:

  • left-handed pitcher, falling slightly off to the third-base side of the mound
  • Kendrys Morales playing first base, instead of Eric Hosmer
  • two outs

In a sense, the situation did call for a push bunt: Brian Flynn wasn’t ending up in a good position, and Morales doesn’t move around so well these days. But that last bullet is a big one. I’m not saying it was dumb — it was, after all, wildly successful! The last bullet just makes it unusual. As my attention was drawn in to the broadcast, half my mind assumed the announcer was just getting the number of outs wrong. You don’t see many similar bunts. I made a mental note to generate the InstaGraphs post that you’re reading right now.

What’s the frequency of a two-out RBI bunt, or of a two-out RBI bunt attempt? We go to the Play Index. Two-out bunts, in general, are of course fairly rare, as bunts go. There’s nothing to sacrifice, and there’s not much margin of error.

bunt-attempts

This year there have been 107 two-out bunts. Out of those, 18 took place with at least one runner in scoring position, and 13 took place with a runner on third. There have been five such RBI, and just days before Marte in Kansas City, Kolten Wong dropped down an almost identical and successful bunt against lefty Jeff Locke and the Pirates. Colby Rasmus has one of the RBI bunts, Chris Rusin has another, and Asdrubal Cabrera has the last. Note that this considers only bunts put in play — no consideration is given to missed or fouled attempts. That’s always one of those complicating factors with bunts, but if we’re judging just by outcomes, then Marte’s result, indeed, was unusual.

To me, the most important number is the 13. The number of two-out bunts in play with a runner on third. For a sense of scale, this season there have been 20 complete-game shutouts. Or, alternatively, this season, the Atlanta Braves have scored 20 runs. Marte’s bunt wasn’t one of a kind, but it’s not something an opponent would expect, which, in turn, makes it worth trying. It’s additionally worth trying because Marte hits poorly but runs well, so, here we are. You don’t see a lot of two-out RBI bunt attempts. Bunting is hard, and confidence is a factor. Yet there’s nothing wrong with a two-out RBI bunt attempt; it’s all a matter of evaluating probabilities. That Kolten Wong bunt, from earlier? Kolten Wong sucks against lefties. Why not try a bunt? It’s a perfectly valid tool made available to the mediocre.


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 7/11

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