FanGraphs Baseball

Congratulations, [National League champion], on winning the National League pennant and advancing to the World Series! By this point, no matter what happens, you’ve had a hell of a year. You fought through [early-to-midseason adversity], [previously unheralded player] stepped up and made a name for himself, [star player] cemented his status as one of the true greats in the world, and [famous front-office executive or manager] really has a group to be proud of here. This has truly been a run to remember.

And now you’ve got one more task before you can put a bow on this season once and for all: the Cleveland Indians. The Indians didn’t have as rocky a road as you did to get here; they swept the Red Sox in the ALDS, nearly swept the Blue Jays in the ALCS, and have won 10 of their last 11 games dating back to September 30. And, while there’s a lot of praise to go around for those victories, you and I both know you biggest individual challenge that awaits you in the World Series: the 6-foot-7 swamp monster that comes out of their bullpen the moment they get a lead by the name of Andrew Miller.

He just won the ALCS MVP. In this postseason, he’s thrown 20 scoreless innings, striking out 31 with just three walks. The last time he gave up a run was more than a month ago, on September 7. He’s recorded more than three outs in every one of his postseason appearances. In every game he’s pitched, the Indians have won. If you want this World Series, that might mean conquering Miller at least once, so, since you asked, I put together that comprehensive walkthrough you wanted. This wasn’t easy.

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Ben and Sam banter about Ben’s engagement, then answer listener emails about Andrew Miller, playoff tactics during the regular season, renaming the playoff rounds, and more.

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You might have heard offense has been down this postseason. I think one or two articles have been written about it. After the Blue Jays were shut out for the second time in the American League Championship Series, I wanted to see how much it’s been down. What I found: this ALCS was one of the lowest-scoring in history.

First, a little refresher. The ALCS has existed since 1969. From ’69 until 1984, it was a best-of-five series. Since, it’s been a best of seven. You probably already knew that, but just in case, now you definitely know. And knowing…

Anyway, there were 20 runs scored in this series — 12 by Cleveland, eight by the Blue Jays. This makes it the lowest of any ALCS since it moved to a best-of-seven format. The only series that comes close is the 1990 ALCS, when the A’s scored 20 runs to the Red Sox’ measly four. It’s also easily the lowest of any series in terms of runs per game.

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Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the giant and large 2016-17 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, all relievers are some repute.

Other Players: Pedro Alvarez / Erick Aybar / Jose Bautista / Carlos Beltran / Billy Butler / Andrew Cashner / Bartolo Colon / Rajai Davis / Ian Desmond / R.A. Dickey / Edwin Encarnacion / Doug Fister / Dexter Fowler / Carlos Gomez / Jeremy Hellickson / Rich Hill / Matt Holliday / Austin Jackson / Jon Jay / Matt Joyce / Colby Lewis / Brandon Moss / Mike Napoli / Ivan Nova / Angel Pagan / Steve Pearce / Wilson Ramos / Colby Rasmus / Josh Reddick / Michael Saunders / Kurt Suzuki / Mark Trumbo / Justin Turner / Chase Utley / Luis Valbuena / Edinson Volquez / Neil Walker / Matt Wieters / C.J. Wilson.

Joe Blanton (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Blanton:

• Has averaged 78 IP and 1.0 WAR over last two seasons*.
• Has averaged 0.8 WAR per 65 IP** over last two seasons.
• Recorded a 0.9 WAR in 80.0 IP in 2016.
• Is projected to record 0.8 WAR per 65 IP***.
• Is entering his age-36 season.
• Made $4.0M in 2016, as part of deal signed in January.

*Didn’t pitch in 2014.
**That is, a roughly average number of innings for a relief pitcher.
***Prorated version of final updated 2016 depth-chart projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Blanton.

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Position: Houston Astros Baseball Research & Development Analyst

Location: Houston
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Before the Indians clinched the American League Championship Series behind their improbable youngster, there was a mini controversy. Because it was 66 degrees with no chance of rain, there was a movement to keep the roof open at the Rogers Centre. It can get a little stuffy in that park; if the weather was good, why not?

It turns out the why not is in the hands of Major League Baseball in the postseason. The club is consulted, but the final decision goes to MLB. They decided the roof would be shut. It’s natural to wonder, though, after seeing a few long drives fall short of the wall, if those same batted balls would have cleared the outfield fence if the roof were open.

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Because of course he did. This morning, I wrote all there was to know about Ryan Merritt, the 24-year-old, soft-tossing, non-prospect, left-handed pitcher who was set to start Game 5 of the ALCS for the Cleveland Indians with all of 11 innings of major league experience under his belt and the opportunity to end the Toronto Blue Jays’ season and clinch the American League pennant for Cleveland. The conclusion, based on all available data, film, and reports? “Probably, this isn’t going to go well for Cleveland.” The actual results? Shutout ball for 4.1 innings, perfect for 3.1, and a whole lot of champagne and cigar smoke in the visiting clubhouse at the Rogers Centre.

Because, baseball. Because, 2016 Cleveland Indians. When Michael Brantley’s season was over before it began, Jose Ramirez simply stepped up and turned himself into Michael Brantley. When Marlon Byrd got hit with a season-ending PED suspension at the end of May, spreading an already-thin outfield even thinner, Tyler Naquin emerged as a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate. When Yan Gomes separated his shoulder and the Indians failed to land Jonathan Lucroy at the trade deadline, Roberto Perez stepped in and handled the pitching staff so well that most Indians pitchers, when asked about the rotation’s dominant run in the postseason, haven’t been able to wait for reporters to finish their questions before his name falls off their lips. And so, of course, when Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar each suffered season-ending injuries in the final month of the season and Trevor Bauer went all Victor Frankenstein and was betrayed by his own creation, Josh Tomlin and Ryan Merritt made it seem like no one was missing. Like this was how they drew it all up from the start.

And of course, saying Merritt pitched the Indians into the World Series makes it sound like an isolated effort, when in fact the bullpen threw as many innings in Wednesday’s 3-0 pennant-clinching victory as he did. If anyone, on their own, truly “pitched the Indians into the World Series,” it was ALCS MVP Andrew Miller, who threw another 2.2 scoreless innings, bringing his postseason total to 20, with 31 strikeouts and three walks. Miller, Bryan Shaw, and Cody Allen did as much of the work as the starter, as they have for much of the postseason, but there was no work to be done if Merritt didn’t keep the game in check and hand the ball off to the bullpen with a lead. Cleveland’s lineup did its part, and Merritt did more than his own.

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Officially, now, the Indians are going to the World Series, representing the American League. When they get there, they’re going to be fully rested. Some will speculate that they might be too rested. That’s for then. For now, it’s another celebration in Cleveland, which is a weird thing to write.

So how did the Indians manage to pull this off, doing away with the Blue Jays in five games? Let’s be honest. You already know the answer.

The Indians aren’t going to the World Series because of Michael Brantley. The star outfielder has been of just about zero use this year, owing to a messed-up shoulder. They’re not going to the World Series because of Carlos Carrasco. He helped them plenty during the year, but then he got knocked out. They’re not going to the World Series because of Danny Salazar. Like Carrasco, he also helped plenty during the year, but he hasn’t pitched in over a month.

And this is important, in the little picture: They’re not going to the World Series because of the offense. The offense has been underrated this season, and in the playoffs it’s been fairly timely. But in the ALCS, in which the Indians outscored the Blue Jays just 12 to 8, the Indians had a .544 OPS, to the Blue Jays’ .534. By wOBA, the Blue Jays were actually better, by a margin of .237 to .231. The hitting in the whole series sucked. The Indians’ lineup was the offensive equivalent of Ryan Goins. The Blue Jays’ lineup was the offensive equivalent of J.B. Shuck. The teams didn’t hit. The Indians just hit at a few more of the good moments.

The pitching has carried the Indians. The bullpen has carried the Indians. We’ve already been over this, but it worked perfectly again on Wednesday.

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Cubs manager Joe Maddon likes to put a saying — often an inspirational quote — on the clubhouse chalkboard before games. Earlier today, I asked Toronto’s John Gibbons what message he’d put on his club’s chalkboard leading into ALCS Game 5. His response was, “We let Bautista do that.”

In retrospect, “You can’t predict baseball” would have been apropos.

The Indians weren’t supposed to beat the Blue Jays this afternoon. Not at raucous Rogers Centre with an obscure, and inexperienced, rookie on the mound. Ryan Merritt had all of 11 big-league innings under his belt, and in terms of prospect helium, he’s not exactly Julio Urias. Let’s be honest, there was a greater chance that Merritt would crack than dazzle. Bautista went as far as to say the youngster would be “shaking in his boots.”

Before the game, Terry Francona admitted that Merritt was nervous. The Cleveland skipper also predicted that those nerves would lessen once the game started.

They did. In the first inning, the kid induced weak ground balls from Bautista and Josh Donaldson, then fanned Edwin Encarnacion. “Merritt” chants were started in the stands, but they never gained steam. Neither did Blue Jays bats; they continued to fizzle. Merritt set down the first 10 he faced, and when he finally did give up a hit, it was followed by a double play.

Through four innings,the bullpen phone had remained eerily quiet. Cinderella still hadn’t called for her slippers. The Indians led 3-0.

One out into the fifth, the rookie with the pedestrian fastball surrendered a soft single, and was lifted. He’d done his job. Expected to do little, Merritt instead was receiving congratulatory handshakes after retiring 12 of the 14 hitters he faced. The game was now in the capable hands of the Cleveland bullpen. Then it was over.

The Indians are on to the World Series, and Ryan Merritt — unknown, unheralded, unfazed — is one of the biggest reasons. Baseball.