It’s that time of year again, everyone. Read the introductory post detailing what this is all about if this is your first rodeo. If this is not your first rodeo, welcome back! Here’s a graph of projected WAR for third basemen this year — you’ll note that there are no teams with negative WAR, which makes me feel like I’ve won some sort of Positional Power Rankings lottery.

Now, onto the ranks of the hot corner, and the listing of a legion of men who field bunts and throw off balance across the diamond. It’s a three-team party at the top, folks, with Toronto, Baltimore, and Chicago (NL) leading the charge. There’s been some talent drain at the position compared to this time last year, as Ryan Zimmerman (now a first baseman) and Evan Longoria have been left off/downgraded due to a pair of rough campaigns. Still, third base remains one of the most exciting positions on the diamond, as a glut of elite, young talent and a 2015 American League Most Valuable Player count themselves among the ranks. Indeed, it is also one of the most talented positions, as four of the top 20 position players by projected 2016 WAR are third basemen. Now, onto the specifics! Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Davis earned a seven-year, $161 million contract with the Orioles this offseason. Khris Davis was traded to the A’s for a couple low-minors prospects. Chris Davis is a lefty, and plays first base. Khris Davis is a righty, and plays the outfield. Chris Davis has been the best power hitter in baseball. Over the last three years, his .292 isolated slugging percentage is nearly 20 points higher than the next guy, and he’s got 15 homers over runner-up Nelson Cruz. Khris Davis has been a tantalizing, yet in many ways still flawed player whose shine has somewhat faded after an explosive debut with Milwaukee in 2013.

Yet even with those flaws, namely struggles with contact ability and plate discipline, one might be surprised to learn that Davis — sorry, Khris — has also been one of the league’s most prodigious power hitters, with an ISO that ranks in the top 10 since 2013. Since Khris came on the scene, he’s hit for more power than Bryce Harper, Miguel Cabrera and Jose Abreu. Granted, injuries, defensive shortcomings and his one-dimensional nature at the plate have limited his playing time, so perhaps his power output isn’t quite as impressive as his slugging peers who have done it for longer, but he’s now batted more than 1,100 times and done so with an ISO that’s indistinguishable from Paul Goldschmidt’s. The power is real, and just last year, he took a step forward in one promising area to put his name alongside the game’s premier power hitter, the Chris with a C.

Read the rest of this entry »

Previous editions: Arizona / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati  / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles (AL) / Los Angeles (NL) / Miami / Minnesota / Milwaukee / New York (NL) / New York (AL) / Oakland / Philadelphia.

Yesterday, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Pittsburgh Pirates. In this companion piece, I look at that same Pittsburgh farm system through the lens of my recently refined KATOH projection system. The Pirates have the 10th-best farm system in baseball according to KATOH.

Read the rest of this entry »

There’s a stat on here we don’t talk very much about. It’s a stat that measures double-play value, above or below average, and it’s folded in with the baserunning numbers. It goes by wGDP, and for hitters, a positive number is good, and a negative number is bad. Here’s something about the stat that shouldn’t surprise you: Over the last three years combined, the worst hitter in baseball by double-play value has been Billy Butler, at -10.5 runs. It’s good to make sure advanced numbers mostly agree with your impressions, because that confirms the numbers aren’t imaginary. As double plays go, Butler has everything working against him. So, yeah.

Now I have a quiz for you. You’re given that, since 2013, Butler comes in last by this measure. Who do you suppose is second-to-last? Think about this carefully before you answer. Think about what would cause a player to hurt his team the most via double plays. Think about playing time, and lineup position. I shouldn’t give you any more clues. Here’s the quiz, with all of one question:

Are you all done? Great. Everyone who voted is wrong. The answer is Jose Altuve.

Read the rest of this entry »

This is the latest installment of the power rankings. If you would like an introduction of the power rankings, click here. If you would like to read the power rankings for catcher, click here. If you would like to read the power rankings for first base, click here. If you would like to read the power rankings for second base, click here. If you would like to read the power rankings for shortstop, enough with the clicking. You have come to the right place. Please read on.

Below, you will find a graph of every team’s projected shortstop WAR for the upcoming season based on the FanGraphs Depth Chart Projections.

The shortstop position is incredibly well-stocked for the future. Six of the top 11 shortstops are 23 years old or younger and the only shortstops older than 26 in the top 13 are 29-year-old Brandon Crawford and 31-year-old Troy Tulowitzki. Even some teams closer to the bottom like the Brewers and Phillies have reason for optimism with young shortstops on the way. Headed by Carlos Correa, shortstop should have a number of great players over the next few years.

#1 Astros

---

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Carlos Correa	630	.274	.340	.475	.349	15.9	1.9	0.3	4.8
Marwin Gonzalez	70	.255	.294	.383	.295	-1.3	-0.2	-0.1	0.2
Total	700	.272	.335	.465	.344	14.7	1.8	0.2	5.0

If one were looking for a word that would describe Carlos Correa’s growth as a player over the past few years, astronomical would be an appropriate word to use. His meteoric rise began in 2012 when the Astros drafted him, in part because he agreed to an under slot signing bonus. Correa rocketed through the system with just 539 plate appearances between High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A combined, and just one year ago, he entered the season without a single plate appearance above Single-A ball. The lack of minor league experience did not prevent the 20-year-old from becoming an immediate star.

Now 21, Correa is expected to continue to shine brightly, providing very good offense with at least average defense. Carlos Correa is the only MLB player projected to exceed 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases this season. He is projected for nearly five wins above replacement this season after a 3.3 WAR season last year, but he only needs a more terrestrial 2.3 WAR season for the second-most WAR for a shortstop through Age-21 over the past 50 years (Alex Rodriguez is first with 12.9 WAR). Marwin Gonzalez will get a few starts at multiple positions here and there, but if Correa were to go down for any length of time, it would be a problem.

Read the rest of this entry »

Shelby Miller’s pitch usage changed last year. Per PITCHf/x, his cutter percentage jumped from 5.8% to 20.7% while his curveball percentage fell from 19.5% to 9.7%. He also employed his fastball differently. His four-seam — a pitch known for its explosiveness — was thrown just 32.7% of the time, down from 61.6%. Conversely, his two-seam percentage climbed from 10.3% to 33.8% (and his ground-ball rate rose from 39.9% to 47.7%).

The hard-throwing right-hander’s changeup usage remained relatively static, inching down from 2.4% to 2.2%.

Miller had success with his new approach. In his first-and-only season with the Braves, the former Cardinal established a new career high in innings pitched, and his 3.02 ERA, 3.45 FIP and 0.57 HR/9 were career lows.

Earlier this week, I asked the 25-year-old Arizona Diamondback about the thought-process behind his changes, and whether we might see anything different this season.

———

Miller on throwing more two-seamers: “I knew it could help me get deeper into games and be a more efficient pitcher. In 2013 and 2014, in St. Louis, I relied on my four-seamer a lot. I’d go five innings, five-plus, six once in awhile. I wasn’t getting deep; I wasn’t getting into to the seventh and eighth like I wanted to.

“I throw a lot of fastballs. When you throw four-seams the whole time, guys foul them off. And it’s flat, so they see it better. I know that mine [has good carry], so I do use it a lot up in the zone. It’s still one of my favorite pitches. It’s what I control the best and I rely on it a lot.

“When you’re only throwing a four-seamer, guys see it and see it and see it. I think you have to mix it up. A sinker is a great pitch. It looks like a four-seam fastball and at the last second it moves. It has a couple inches of sink, which can be the difference between a fly ball and a ground ball.

“The sinker allows me to give a hitter a different look. Everybody is different. Some hitters are better than others, and some people hit sinkers better than others. It’s really more about going in with a game plan. You’re not trying to overpower guys with sinkers. It’s more a pitch for double-play situations and early in the count when you’re trying to get ground balls. You have longer at bats and you have shorter at-bats, and my motto is, ‘Try to get guys out with three pitches or less.’”

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam banter about a LaRoche-related White Sox conspiracy and update Ryan Webb’s save outlook, then answer emails about Ryan Howard, Trout vs. Goldschmidt, a terrible trivia question, and more.

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Read the rest of this entry »

Usage of the defensive shift has exploded in recent years, most especially against left-handed bats. More and more teams are shifting more and more often, and there’s a reason this trend shows no signs of slowing down: hitters have been incapable of killing it dead. We celebrate Mike Moustakas for his victory over opposing alignments. Moustakas is the exception.

I’ve been thinking about the shift because of Jimmy Rollins. Or maybe it’s because of Ken Rosenthal, I don’t know, but Rosenthal had a Rollins section in his latest notes article. I’ll excerpt:

Read the rest of this entry »