FanGraphs Baseball

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Colorado at Los Angeles NL | 16:10 ET
Gray (76.1 IP, 82 xFIP-) vs. McCarthy (Season Debut)
Brandon McCarthy produced excellent fielding-independent numbers during his first four starts for the Dodgers, creating considerable optimism for his fifth one. Today marks the occasion of that fifth start — nearly a year and a half removed from his most recent appearance. The reason for the delay? Not, as one probably assumes, a grant-funded sabbatical to perform research abroad. No, rather: a procedure to reconstruct his UCL and the laborious rehabilitation which follows it. He’s touched 93 mph during his rehab starts according to J.P. Hoornstra of Inside SoCal — which, that probably places his average fastball velocity at something a bit, but not significantly, lower than what he was exhibiting before the injury.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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Collin Cowgill might be the most ambidextrous person in MLB. Currently playing for Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate, the Columbus Clippers, Cowgill explained his handedness as follows:

“I throw left-handed, hit right-handed, dribble a basketball right-handed, shoot a basketball left-handed. If I was going to dunk, I would dunk right-handed. I shoot darts left-handed. I golf right-handed. I bowl left-handed. I write and eat right-handed. I shoot pool left-handed. I kick right-footed. If I was going to punch you, I’d punch you right-handed.

The 30-year-old outfielder has done all of this naturally, for as long as he can remember. The first time he was handed a ball, he threw it left-handed. The first time he stepped in a batter’s box, it was right-handed. He tried switch-hitting at one point, but realized he was better from the right side and stuck with that.

Hand dominance at the dish is another area in which he’s different. Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Kansas City at Philadelphia | 17:50 ET
Duffy (66.2 IP, 84 xFIP-) vs. Nola (91.0 IP, 73 xFIP-)
Rather than discussing the virtues of a Royals-Phillies game, the purpose of this brief passage is rather to address how and why and how a game featuring Jake Arrieta and Bartolo Colon isn’t more well acquitted by the haphazardly calculated NERD scores fashioned by the author. In the case of Colon, the explanation is simple: for better or worse, there’s no bonus in NERD allotted to players merely for the resemblance they bear to a modern Falstaff. Were such a thing to exist, the Mets right-hander would rocket to the top of the charts.

As for Arrieta, the reason for his (relatively) low mark probably appears more opaque. But regard: this is a new development. The Cubs right-hander rated as a 10 all the way through his last start of 2015. The Arrieta pitching this year is different than that Arrieta, however. He’s throwing less hard and throwing fewer strikes and is taking more time in between pitches.

Regard:

He’s still suppressing batted-ball production — which is what allows him to produce better run-prevention numbers than his fielding-independent marks might otherwise suggest. It’s possible — and becoming more probable all the time — that Arrieta possesses the requisite skills to beat his FIP. Accounting for that in a metric this frivolous, however, is both absurd and difficult. Absurd is acceptable; difficult, less so.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Philadelphia Radio.

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Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Detroit at Tampa Bay | 19:10 ET
Fulmer (63.2 IP, 95 xFIP-) vs. Smyly (89.2 IP, 91 xFIP-)
Despite receiving the same NERD score as the afternoon Cleveland-Toronto game, this Detroit-Tampa Bay contest receives the distinction of the day’s most highly rated one because (a) it actually features a higher mark than that first one by three-hundredths of a point (6.53 vs. 6.50) and (b) that first game featuring the Indians and Blue Jays had already moved into the 12th inning before the author — who was occupied first by his editoral duties and then a nap — had completed this post. So while one might regard all this as a failure by the author to complete his work in a timely fashion, another person might declare it a victory for Leisure.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

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Our position-by-position review of contact quality grinds on. In the last installment, we examined third basemen. Today, we move into the outfield. It’s two starkly different stories with regard to left-field production, as National League regulars have dramatically out-produced their junior circuit counterparts. As we have in the previous installments, we’ll use granular ball-in-play data, such as BIP type frequencies, exit speed and launch angle to perform this analysis.

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Yesterday, Baseball America’s Ben Badler reported that Major League Baseball was going to levy penalties against the Boston Red Sox due to improprieties perpetrated during last year’s International Signing Period. Today, Jeff Passan at Yahoo! Sports elaborated on that report. I’ve spoken with several international scouts about this news in an attempt to gauge the implications not only for the Red Sox but for the international market in general. The results of those inquiries appear below.

Some background on the issue

Boston was in the J2 penalty box last year as a result of the Yoan Moncada signing the year before. They signed two Venezuelan prospects from the same training program last year, both for $300,000, and a third from that program for $200,000. MLB has found that the best of those three prospects, a catcher/outfielder named Albert Guaimaro, received most of that money. This allowed Boston to acquire a player whom they wouldn’t have been able to sign (since being in the J2 penalty box means you can’t sign players for more than $300K), the agent makes more money and two prospects who otherwise may not have had an opportunity to play in a Major League organization now have that chance. As a result of MLB’s findings, five players signed by the Red Sox during last year’s period will be declared free agents and the club is now banned from signing any international prospects during the Int’l Signing Period that begins tomorrow.

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Yesterday, after months of rumored negotiations, news broke that Disney had agreed to acquire a 33% stake in MLB’s streaming-video division, often referred to as BAM Tech. According the report, Disney — which has ABC and ESPN under its umbrella — agreed to acquire one-third of BAM Tech for $1.16 billion, which puts the overall valuation for the entire streaming division at $3.5 billion. As part of the deal, Disney also has the right to purchase another 33% of the company in the future, which would allow them to become majority owners of whatever they choose to call BAM Tech long-term.

The deal is certain to have far-reaching implications for the future of streaming video, and it also could have implications in the upcoming labor negotiations as owners attempt to separate non-baseball revenue from baseball revenue despite its origins within the game.

With this deal, it is clear that BAM Tech is set to be distinct from MLBAM, focusing on streaming efforts outside of baseball. This development was first announced last August, coinciding with a deal to acquire NHL’s streaming rights. MLBAM  has become a force in the industry, branching out from providing only MLB-related services several years ago to providing back-end help to ESPN, rolling out the WWE Network and HBO NOW, along with streaming the NCAA Tournament and PGA tour events.

MLB considered several options with their streaming-services business, from going public to staying put, but ultimately chose a strategic partnership with Disney. By retaining a large equity stake in BAM Tech, at least until the option to sell another third is due, MLB has bet on the continuing upside of the company. By partnering with Disney, the odds are good that more deals like what the league did with the NHL and HBO will come down the pike, and if MLB and Disney can grow the company together, the remaining equity the league holds will likely increase in value, perhaps significantly.

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The Cuban National Team is touring the independent Can-Am League right now and their roster includes two of the three best prospects left in Cuba. Below are my brief thoughts on those two prospects as a supplement to this week’s July 2 content, as both of them would fall under the J2 bonus guidelines were they to leave Cuba.

Luis Moiran Robert, OF, 6’2, 180, R/R

Robert (the second syllable is pronounced the way it is in Stephen Colbert and not the way it is in Keary Colbert) body comps to Alex Gordon. He has plus bat speed, advanced pitch recognition and generates contact to all fields. He walked three times on Wednesday and also showed the ability to make adjustments in the middle of at-bats. Reports from international scouts on his bat control were better than what I saw and his weight is distributed a little too heavily on his front foot for my taste, but Robert is only 19 and clearly has prodigious physical skill and a good approach so I’m not too concerned about the lack of results on this Can-Am tour. He’s hitting .255/.263/.291 on this trip and looks a little disintereste,d but he hit .305/.384/.413 last year in Serie Nacional at age 18 and is already hitting third in the lineup for the National Team.

I didn’t get a good time on Robert from home to first because of all the walks, but eyeballed him as an above-average runner on a few steal attempts. I’m not sure that Robert will retain the wheels for CF as he fills out but he should at least be a defensive asset in a corner and I think he’ll hit enough to play there.

Early this spring, scouts lost track of Robert and thought he might have left the island.

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At the end of May, Carlos Correa possessed a .253/.348/.414 line that didn’t much resemble the numbers from his Rookie of the Year debut. The walks were there, the strikeout rate was about the same, but the defense was down and the power was out. Hey look at him now! He’s got a .268/.366/.477 and is approaching last year’s weighted-offense mark. Let’s look at what happened in June.

The easy answer is that Correa has been hitting the ball harder. He’s hitting for more power, duh. But if you split the season into two halves, each featuring roughly significant samples of balls in play — 100 balls in play is a good number, and most everyday players are at around 200 right now — you’ll see that Correa has improved more than almost everyone in baseball.

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