Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs once again facilitated this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2015-16 free-agent market.

Below are the results of same. For each player, respondents provided estimates of the years and dollars he’s likely to receive. Also, in such cases as a player is a candidate to receive a qualifying offer from his club, readers predicted whether he would or not — and whether, having received a qualifying offer, that player would accept it. Answers to other questions — regarding options, for example — also appear below.

What the reader will note regarding this particular list relative to previous iterations of same is its considerable length. This same exercise last year contained 55 names; the year before that, 47. Below, one finds 82 of them. The greater size is not the product of a concerted effort to provide greater coverage, but rather of mere necessity: the quantity of useful free agents (or potential free agents, at least) appears itself simply to be greater than in recent years.

Note that players with options certain to be exercised were omitted from balloting. Note also that, despite having received ballots, both Jaime Garcia and Torii Hunter have been omitted from the list below, owing to their near futures having been already determined — by the exercise of an option in the former case, retirement in the latter. Note finally that the crowd has demonstrated a distinct tendency to underestimate the overall contract values of free agents — especially among those players expected to receive the greatest compensation.

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The playoffs are over, and as balls and strikes go, the tournament wasn’t overly controversial. There were some misses, sure. There was that called strike against Ben Revere at nearly the worst possible time. That wasn’t great, and I’m sure there are some Blue Jays fans who are still fuming. Shortly before that, there was a similar called strike against Dioner Navarro. Rough inning. As for called balls, the Royals didn’t love that one called for Jose Bautista in a full count. There are always going to be arguments, since non-lasered humans are expected to call the strike zone with laser-like precision, but these playoffs could’ve been worse. The controversial calls were at least close to the borders. The calls were forgivable.

The controversial calls aren’t always close to the borders. Sometimes the calls are just bad. Like, take this called ball — according to PITCHf/x, this was 1.3 inches from the center of the strike zone at the front of home plate. Imagine if this had taken place in the playoffs, and led to a rally?

1.3 inches. That means part of the baseball passed through the very center of the zone. Doesn’t seem like a ball like that should ever take place. And this wasn’t even the worst called ball of the season. No, that one was thrown by Jeff Samardzija, literally one day later, on August 19. Samardzija’s called ball was measured at 1.2 inches from the center of the strike zone.

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The Nationals were psychologically prepared to replace Matt Williams with Bud Black. But according to reports, they were less financially prepared to do that, so now they’re actually replacing Williams with Dusty Baker. For the organization, it’s something of an embarrassing turn, not because they ended up with Baker, but because they acted too cheaply to get their first choice. But, whatever, that’s already in the past. What matters now is Baker. And few managers and managerial candidates can provoke so strong a fan reaction. When it comes to Dusty Baker, people have feelings.

For sure, there are those who point to his record, his experience and history of winning. He’s a proven manager, which Matt Williams most certainly was not. Yet Baker also has another reputation. When word started to spread that he was going to Washington, a common response was that it would be bad news for the pitching staff. Baker is forever followed by references to Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, and it’s the sort of thing he clearly can’t out-run. To so many people, Baker is a pitcher-destroyer. Even among those who don’t really feel that way, everyone’s familiar with the rep.

It should be understood that nothing is ever simple. And it should be understood that behavior changes. Dusty Baker is going to manage the Washington Nationals. I don’t see a convincing argument for why that’s a bad thing.

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We’ve gone exactly one day without baseball, so it’s probably time to write another post about Mike Trout.

The framing device I used the first time I wrote this post was LeBron James. I’m a Cavaliers fan, and when I’d written the post, LeBron James played for the Miami Heat and I didn’t think I’d ever see him play for Cleveland again. When LeBron first left for Miami, I was sad, of course, but the initial sadness was simply “my favorite team is bad again.” The later sadness, the sadness that stuck, was the crippling fear that I’d taken James’ time in Cleveland, his truly historic time, for granted. That I hadn’t appreciated him enough. That I’d gotten too used to how incredible he was, rather than being thankful each and every day that he existed, and that I could watch him do the things he does, feeling pride that he represented my city. The thing about realizing you took something special for granted is, you almost never get another chance to re-do it. I got lucky with LeBron.

Mike Trout just posted another nine-win season, and he’s likely to finish as runner-up MVP yet again. Another indisputably historic season that won’t be recognized as such at year’s end. It’s not anyone’s fault, really. The first year, Miguel Cabrera won a freaking Triple Crown. The next year, he had an even better season. Then Trout had his “worst” year yet and finally got his MVP. This year, Josh Donaldson will absolutely deserve the MVP he most likely wins. More than one person can, and usually does, deserve it, after all.

It feels like Bryce Harper helped take some of the shine away from Trout this season. Perhaps rightfully so. But there should be enough shine to go around for the both of them. Not to say Trout goes unappreciated. Fans of the game recognize that he’s special. They recognize Harper is special. But do we appreciate them enough? Is it possible to appreciate them enough? Baseball hasn’t seen a pairing like Trout and Harper since Mays and Mantle in the mid-50’s and, no, that’s not an exaggeration. Maybe I’m overstating it, but I guess I’m just terrified that, down the road, once the inevitable darkness that is Father Time has shown up and done his bidding on Trout and Harper, that too many people will look back at what we once had the same way I’d looked back on LeBron before I was lucky enough to be given a second chance. Wondering why they didn’t go to more games, wondering why they took something so special for granted. See Mike Trout play as often as you can. Watch a few Angels games on television, even if you’re not a fan. Drive an hour or two to a ballpark, if you have to.

One of the great things about modern baseball statistics is the ability to compare across generations. It’s what makes wRC+ so invaluable. Fifty percent better than league average will always be fifty percent better than league average. Nine Wins Above Replacement now is worth the same as Nine Wins Above Replacement in 1940. The greats of years past have a legacy. The players of our age don’t yet have that and, on the fly, it can be hard to contextualize what the accomplishments of today’s players mean. Where they stand in the bigger picture, and what their eventual legacy may become.
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Ben and Sam banter about Jeurys Familia’s blown saves in the World Series, then talk about Bud Black, Dusty Baker, and the state of managing.

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Some of the nausea that comes with fandom begins as a terrible question in the back of your head. Could this be their best chance? Could this be their only shot? What if things fall apart next year? Do I trust the team’s front office to do the right things to keep this train on the tracks?

It is those nervous bubbles, those heartaches, those feelings of self-doubt that make the eventual win so amazing. We can’t do away with them or we lose some of the engine of future pleasure.

But if you’re a Mets fan, right now you’re left to wallow in those negative thoughts. Those triumphs that came before the World Series have faded quickly. You’re left in the dark, hoping that the hot stove provides light and warmth, and that hope is your friend and not a trick in the night, leading you astray.

So… can the Mets make it back?

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One doesn’t simply write about Jupiter, not without first reflecting on this matter’s relative futility.

Perfect Game’s 2015 WWBA World Championship – often referred to by its aforementioned host town in Florida – marks the last stop on the high school showcase circuit. Between Oct. 22 and 26, 85 travel ball teams competed against each other at the Roger Dean Stadium complex, the spring training home of the St. Louis Cardinals and Miami Marlins. Though most of the top-flight draft talent was concentrated among 20 or so teams, it was still tricky to navigate 13 fields in a golf cart while jockeying for real estate behind home plate of said fields with hoards of other golf carts. This happened for five days, for 10-14 hours each day, depending on your ambition level. And lo, this test of scouting endurance was further complicated by basic human maintenance, as one must still eat on a regular basis and displace the eaten contents on a more timelier one. I say these things to say that there was a lot happening at once, and as one half of a two-man FanGraphs team that slogged through this test, I also say that it was difficult to see all of which that happened at once, in case your expectations were higher before you finished reading this sentence.

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Last weekend featured the first event I covered as Lead Prospect Analyst for FanGraphs. I cannot imagine a better crash course in the who’s who of draft prospects than the Perfect Game WWBA tournament in Jupiter, Florida. Jesse Burkhart and I spent the weekend watching players and exchanging notes and ideas; be sure to check out his post for some information on other top high school prospects attending the event.

This article will hopefully be a little different than what you can find elsewhere covering the tournament. There were too many players in too short a period to reasonably do a ranked list, and boring everybody with a long list with a short blurb on each is no fun. Instead, I chose three players who are either undervalued or just generally interesting to me, and have given a full analysis of what makes each one provocative while also attempting to characterize their limitations. These are not the three best players we saw in Jupiter, but rather the ones whose strengths I wanted to illuminate. Read this as a case study on three specific players as well as an introduction to the thought process through which I go while looking at amateur prospects.

Following the three main write-ups, I’ve also posted some thoughts on players of interest upon whom Jesse doesn’t touch in his piece. Some are probable first or second round picks for next June, others are lesser ranked guys whose upside you might interest you. None of these evaluations are set in stone, since although I had seen a decent number of the top rated guys on video and read others’ thoughts prior to Jupiter, these are still fresh faces to me. As I said in my introductory post when I was hired, I want you guys to engage in discussions on any players you have seen or questions you may have about the discussed prospects here.

Drew Mendoza SS/3B Minneola, FL (Florida State)

Before seeing him play last week, I had already heard of Mendoza’s defensive skills. He possesses a reputation for being a quality shortstop prospect with excellent footwork and range to pair with a strong arm. Kiley McDaniel said this about Mendoza in his early 2016 draft rankings posted earlier this season:

Mendoza was a skinny shortstop with some feel to hit from the left side that was a solid follow, then he hit two homers this spring off RHP Brady Singer, who will likely go in the first 50-60 picks this summer. Mendoza has filled out his lanky 6’4 frame a bit but still looks like a [sic] shortstop for now, with the bat showing more impact.

I was disappointed not to see him make any plays that challenged his abilities to corroborate the rep, but in warm ups and fielding practice his skills are still readily apparent. He carries himself well, with good balance and fluid movements catching and throwing the ball. The athleticism in his arm alone is exceptionally smooth. What I was surprised to see is how impressive he is at the plate.

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