Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Arizona | 21:40 ET
Keuchel (226.0 IP, 66 xFIP-) vs. de la Rosa (185.2 IP, 104 xFIP-)
The Angels and Astros, currently separated by a single win, currently feature a roughly 25% probability of producing the same regular-season record and necessitating the addition of a one-game playoff for the right to appear in the normal, regularly scheduled one-game playoff.

By way of comparison, and to better illustrate the likelihood of such a contingency, here are some events which have occurred less than a quarter of the time in 2015:

• Aramis Ramirez — or any of other 25 qualified players, actually — finished an at-bat with a base hit.
• Right-hander Shelby Miller, despite all manner of proficiency, recorded a win for his start.
• Your grandfather left sufficient gratuity for service at a restaurant.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Television.

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Sometimes we here at FanGraphs like to zig when others zag. Or there are times when others zag and we zag too and then before they can say “Hey you’re zagging!” we switch back to zigging. Lots of virtual ink has been spilled recently on Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts and both are well deserving of the attention they’ve received for reasons discussed more on this site and others. But [looks both ways] [leans in] they are not alone. There is a third prospect in Boston with a high ceiling who has been overshadowed by Betts and Bogaerts. His name is Blake Swihart. Three days ago he hit two home runs in Yankee Stadium and when a 23-year-old catcher hits two homers in Yankee Stadium, well, that seems like as good a pretense as any to assess him and his season. So there’s our pretense. Assessment time!

Despite his youth, the switch-hitting catcher spent the majority of the season in Boston. But that wasn’t the original plan. Swihart came into the season slated for duty in Triple-A as he’d spent all of 71 plate appearances over 18 games above Double-A, but all of a sudden catchers started going down. First, starting catcher Christian Vazquez needed Tommy John surgery and the organization promoted backup Ryan Hanigan and picked up Sandy Leon from Washington to back him up. Then two months into the season Hanigan broke his hand and the organization was out of options. Swihart got the call.

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Let’s just be real here and leave the analysis aside for a moment: it’s difficult to picture the Blue Jays losing. They got smoked yesterday, but only after clinching their division, so their lineup was missing its starters. That can be forgiven. Their overall run differential is better than second place by nearly 100. They have baseball’s best record since the All-Star break. Since beginning the little flurry with the Troy Tulowitzki trade, the Jays have won three-quarters of the time, and not even the Cubs have been able to keep up. Aggressiveness at the deadline took care of seemingly all the team’s problems, and now Marcus Stroman is back and starting and looking terrific, and this has been present the whole year:

The Jays are what’s been classically defined as “stupid-good,” one of the few teams in the American League playing like it ought to. It’s no mystery why they’ve succeeded, and now that a berth in the first round has been clinched, it’s at last time to look ahead. The Blue Jays feel like a super team. Especially given how they’ve played the last few months. So, what’s historically happened with teams like this?

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Earlier this week, I took a look at the AL Cy Young race, utilizing batted-ball metrics to address the respective candidacies of David Price, Dallas Keuchel and Chris Sale. To make a long story short, I concluded that Sale’s strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) superiority, along with solid contact management skills that have been obscured by his horrendous team defense, placed him on top. Some readers expressed incredulity in the comment section, not believing that even the worst defense in the game could cost a pitcher one full point of ERA.

Today, let’s look at the counterweight to Chris Sale, Sonny Gray. Though he wasn’t quite the same guy in the second half as he was in the first, he has wrapped up a very strong campaign, especially in the more traditionally accepted statistical categories. He’ll finish third in the AL in ERA (2.73) and is likely to receive his share of down-ballot Cy Young votes, possibly enough to nose out Sale for third place overall. Sale’s ERA is 0.78 higher than his FIP, and as we saw the other day, 1.02 higher than his “tru” ERA, which incorporates Statcast batted ball data. Gray finishes 2015 with an ERA 0.73 lower than his FIP. What gives, and what is the true talent level exhibited by Gray this season?

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles AL at Texas | 20:05 ET
Heaney (101.1 IP, 106 xFIP-) vs. Holland (52.1 IP, 109 xFIP-)
By whichever methodology one cares to utilize, the Rangers currently possess a probability greater than 90% of winning the American’s Leagues most westerly division. Because the Angels have at least a chance of sweeping Texas, however — and therefore of gaining the division for themselves — this series opener offers the illusion of hope. The author is quoting Emily Dickinson, naturally, when he suggests that hope is the thing with feathers — and Guns N’ Roses, just as naturally, when observing that an illusion is something one ought to use.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

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Around the beginning of the year, the Cardinals lost Adam Wainwright, and though they just welcomed him back to the active roster, there’s no time to build him up as a starter. Around the end of the year, the Cardinals lost Carlos Martinez, and while the hope is that there’s nothing seriously wrong with his shoulder, he won’t pitch again for a while. It speaks to the Cardinals’ organizational talents that Martinez developed into a quality option, and it speaks to their depth that his absence can be survived, but it puts a little more pressure on everyone else. Everyone includes Michael Wacha, but Wacha had himself a miserable September.

It was capped off Wednesday with a four-inning, six-run outing. Everyone’s allowed the occasional clunker, but it gets worrisome when a pattern develops, and in Wacha’s five September starts, he gave up 21 runs in 24 frames, with about as many walks as strikeouts. The obvious initial guess is fatigue. Wacha had a start skipped at the beginning of the month with his innings total in mind, and he’s cleared last year’s pitch count by about 1,200. And, absolutely, he might just be tired. Or it could be something else. There’s no reason to go with the initial guess and just stop there, when some research can be done.

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A year ago, I cast an actual ballot for the National League MVP, agreeing with most of my fellow BBWAA members that Clayton Kershaw was the league’s best and most valuable player. The downside of having a ballot was that I couldn’t really talk too much about my thought process in the run-up to to the ballots actually being cast, since the association requests we keep our votes private until after the results are announced.

This year, I’m voting for the NL Cy Young, where choosing a winner is basically an impossible task. So, instead of tying myself in more knots trying to pick a winner in the thing I actually have some say in, I’m going to write a couple posts about the MVP races instead, with the NL today and the AL tomorrow. If I had a ballot again this year, this is how it would look, at least with a few games left to go; in most cases, there isn’t enough time left in the season to move the needle enough to change positions here, and realistically, there isn’t much of a difference between down-ballot spots anyway.

Anyway, here are my 10 picks for a hypothetical NL MVP ballot this year.

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Ben and Sam talk to OC Register writer Pedro Moura about the odd career paths of Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, the Angels’ recent resurgence, and the team’s search for a new GM.

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