Ben and Sam read responses to previous topics, then answer listener emails about Mike Trout, questionable bullpen decisions, what WAR is missing, and more.
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A pivotal series in the National League playoff race got underway today, with the Pittsburgh Pirates hosting the Chicago Cubs in the first of a four-game set. The two clubs play again tonight, with the home team now holding a five-game lead over the visitors for the top wild card spot. The St. Louis Cardinals are currently two up on the Bucs for the Central Division lead.
Theo Epstein fielded questions from the Chicago media prior to this afternoon’s affair. The subjects of chemistry and character came up, and – despite his saber chops – the Cubs president of baseball operations didn’t downplay their value. In his opinion, the youthful club he oversees is ahead of the curve when it comes to both.
“It’s impressive that they’re unfazed by the length of the season and the fact that they’re in a pennant race,” Epstein told the throng. “It’s a testament to their character. The norm is that young players — no matter how talented, no matter how great a start they get off to — tend to wither and just fade away,”
The Cubs haven’t faded away – at least not yet. Despite dropping a 5-4 decision this afternoon, they’re well-positioned for a wild card berth, Not that Epstein wants to hear it. When I brought up their proximity to the teams they’re chasing, Epstein told me and Peter Gammons that he’s more concerned about the team 6.5 games in their rear-view, the San Francisco Giants. As he echoed to the beat writers a few minutes later, “Until you get the little “C” next to your name in the standings, nothing is assured.”
He spoke from experience. In 2011, when he was the general manager in Boston, Epstein saw his team blow a nine-game lead in the final month and miss the playoffs.
As for troubled waters that may lay ahead for his current club, Epstein said that having players of high character pays dividends. In his words,“There’s going to be a time when they face adversity and have to rely on that character.”
Epstein’s concern is justified. The Cubs have lost three straight, and they play the Pirates and Cardinals – the teams with the best records in baseball – 10 more times. The Giants play 12 of their final 18 at home, all but three against teams with losing records.
What does Pittsburgh manager Clint Hurdle think about chemistry and how it applies to the teams in the playoff chase?
“At the end of the day, the chemistry – the men coming together and willing to push everything in with one common goal and not caring who gets the credit – that’s what becomes special,” Hurdle said after the game. “That’s the situation we have here and it’s the situation they have over there (with) the Cardinals. You can’t quantify how important it can be.”
What about the Cubs?
“They’re going to figure it out,” said Hurdle. “That’s the beauty of where we were a few years ago… They’ve got a really good leadership group over there that has a lot of experience in these situations, and provides direction. This is the fun part of the year for everybody. You learn every day.”
We’ll soon learn if Epstein’s Cubs have what it takes to stay the course. As for the role chemistry will play, as Hurdle alluded to, it will be hard to quantify.
| 6:18 |
: Hi everybody! Jeff and I will be here at 9 pm ET for all of your baseballing questions, including but not limited to just how much Jeff is panicking over the state of Johnny Cueto. See you soon!
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| 9:01 |
: OK, let’s do this.
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| 9:01 |
Paul, as a red sox fan, do you have a twinge of disappointment that new Yankees stadium is so dull. It used to be sold out all the time and loud. |
| 9:02 |
: and the Yankees were dominant with players every knew and loved.
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| 9:02 |
: Well, I take comfort in the fact that when things are really important, the Stadium will be filled. I expect a wild card game there to be absolutely awesome TV.
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| 9:03 |
: But yes, it’s a little sad that they can’t fill it up every night. To Jeff’s point, it’s been a little bit since they had that kind of team on the field.
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Apologies for walking on trodden ground. None of what’s below is new. Many of you already know everything in here, but I feel like this is a good opportunity to review why our position is our position. I’ll do my best to keep this simple and short. Just like all the world’s best analysis!
Over the last little while, I’ve written a few things about Clutch. The specific stat might be difficult to explain to the average fan, but the idea is a basic one. Teams with high Clutch scores have had really good timing. Teams with low Clutch scores have had really bad timing. Timing is important! This explains a lot of the difference we see between actual wins and BaseRuns wins, which you can just think of as “expected wins.” This year, the five most clutch teams in baseball so far have beaten their BaseRuns win total by a combined 45. The five least clutch teams in baseball so far have fallen short of their BaseRuns win total by a combined 43. It’s hugely important, and this isn’t a one-year phenomenon.
The introduction of the second wild-card playoff team in each league in 2012 ignited the latest in a never-ending round of debates between baseball purists and modernists. Purists argued that the expansion of the playoff field cheapened the regular season, bringing it closer in line with the other major sports in terms of percentage of teams qualifying for the postseason. Major League Baseball, on the other hand, argued that it would keep a larger number of clubs in the pennant race, hopefully jacking up attendance and TV ratings in the process. From a competitive standpoint, the change really didn’t seem to be that big of a deal. It basically pitted teams ranked somewhere between fifth and 12th in MLB’s overall pecking order in a one-game showdown, with the side benefit of no longer subjecting a division winner to a “one game and out” end after a successful regular season.
It’s a little bit different scenario this time around in the National League. If today’s standings hold up over the next three weeks, we will be treated to a baseball rarity, as the clubs with the second- and fifth-best records in all of baseball, the Pirates and Cubs, divisional rivals, face a one-game showdown for their postseason lives. For my money, this ranks right up there with any non Super Bowl one-off sporting event on the calendar; it’s a Game 7, Djokovic-Federer, and Spieth-McElroy all rolled into one. When you get down to it, it’s a matchup that would be historically rare even if the two-wild-card system had been in place since the dawn of the divisional era.
On Aug. 22, Tampa Bay left-hander Matt Moore reminded everyone of how excellent he can be. Once a consensus top-three prospect (alongside Bryce Harper and Mike Trout), Moore was dominant. In six innings, he recorded 16 strikeouts — 13 of which came in a stretch of just 15 batters. He allowed a single run. But there’s one problem: Moore was pitching for the Durham Bulls, in a game against the Columbus Clippers.
Sad puppies.
At a point earlier in his career, Matt Moore had been an All Star; now he was in Triple-A. Why? Well, since returning from a Tommy John procedure that limited him to just two appearances in 2014, he had been, to put it not nicely but succinctly, putrid. Moore made his season debut in Tampa on July 2. Since (and including) that time, he’d made six major league starts, giving up 26 runs (all earned) in 26.2 innings. Lest you think this was a function merely of batted ball luck, consider: over those 26.2 innings, Moore had struck out 17, walked 13, and gave up four homers as well. The Rays sent him to Durham.
Moore had been an ace starter before having the surgery two starts into the 2014 season, but six starts into his return he hardly looked the part (and two starts following his return from the majors haven’t offered any counterarguments to that point). I’m not sure what Tampa’s expectations were for him, but the often less-grounded expectations of fans and media were that he’d step back into his previous role in front of the Tampa rotation, thereby forming an unbeatable duo of awesomeness (potentially with capes!) with Chris Archer. But so far it hasn’t happened. Can Matt Moore be an ace again? Was Matt Moore ever an ace? Do capes help you pitch? Why questions? How about answers!
At 60-84, the Rockies are not merely way out of contention, but also mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. The team’s in full on rebuild mode these days, and simply put, there aren’t all that many exciting players on their roster. However, they’ve called up a couple of interesting hitters this September who could ultimately develop into useful contributors and help out the next competitive Rockies team: infielder Cristhian Adames and catcher Tom Murphy.
Cristhian Adames
Let’s start with 24-year-old Cristhian Adames, who’s a good bit closer to being ready for the big leagues than Murphy. Adames has hit a loud .391/.440/.435 in semi-regular playing time the last couple of weeks, and has played each of the past few days while filling in for the injured Jose Reyes. Over half of Adames’s balls in play have fallen for hits, which has certainly played no small role in his recent success. But even so, pushing .400 is a great way to make a positive impression.
| 1:04 |
: Kiley’s here, get used to it |
| 1:08 |
Will AJ Reed’s power and hitting ability translate to the majors? Seems the Astros have a black hole at first base right now. Thanks. |
| 1:12 |
: In college it was a bit of a concern that there was some stiffness to his swing, but he had a good approach and he hit all while pitching each Friday. So, there was a slight concern about contact but it was more that he was 1B only and weren’t quite sure what he was, with most scouting looks coming in his one big year in college. He’s obviously answered those questions. It isn’t a perfect swing and I think expectations are getting a little too high given his numbers. He won’t be Schwarber just because the minor league numbers are the same–there’s a reason they were drafted so far apart. All that said, it’s possibly 30 HR power (70 raw) and he should be able to hit around the .250 or .270 range and draw some walks, so he could still be really good. This is why a bit of a mystery player went in the top 50 picks as a college 1B–if it was 60 power he slides another 20 picks lower. |
| 1:12 |
Hey Kiley! Can you give a current MLB comp for an average outcome for Max Kepler? Blackmon? Polanco? |
| 1:13 |
: He’s a bunch of 50 and 55 tools that’s an OF tweener defensively. A name doesn’t come to mind for a comp, but you can probably figure that one out. |
| 1:13 |
Colin Moran has put together a good season in AA at 22 years old. Will he see a rise in his stock this off season? Does he have enough power potential to make an impact at MLB level? |
Over the last couple years, the battle for higher wages for minor league baseball players has been fought on several legal fronts. The highest profile challenge has come in the form of litigation claiming that the minor league pay scale — under which minor league players often earn as little as $3,000 to $7,500 per year — violates the nation’s minimum wage laws.
At the same time, however, a separate lawsuit filed last December attacked the problem from a different legal angle. In Miranda v. Office of the Commissioner of Baseball, four former minor league players asserted that Major League Baseball’s minor league pay practices violate the Sherman Antitrust Act. In particular, the players argued that MLB and its thirty teams have illegally conspired to fix minor league players’ salaries at below-market rates not only by agreeing to a uniform, league-wide salary scale for minor league players, but also by artificially reducing the size of the signing bonuses that entry-level players receive under MLB’s domestic and international signing bonus pool rules.
As I noted at the time the Miranda case was filed last year, the plaintiffs in the suit faced at least one major impediment in their attempt to challenge the minor league pay practices under the Sherman Act: baseball’s antitrust exemption. Indeed, soon after the case was filed, MLB filed a motion asking the court to dismiss the lawsuit in light of its antitrust immunity.
Given that precedent, it should come as little surprise that Judge Haywood Gilliam dismissed the Miranda suit on Monday, concluding that MLB was shielded from the plaintiffs’ claims by virtue of its antitrust exemption.
The playoff odds graphs that we’ve been tweeting out all season are now available on the site thanks to our resident visualization guru, Sean Dolinar!
