Everybody Shut Up and Pay Attention to Jung-ho Kang

Last week, I wrote a post asking whether Carlos Correa might already be the best shortstop in baseball. There is no consensus opinion on that one — a big group of people think he just might be, and another big group of people don’t think he’s proven enough. That’s all totally fine; it wouldn’t be an interesting question if we absolutely knew the answer. The main point is there’s a chance; Correa has been that outstanding. Since the All-Star break, for example, he’s tied for sixth among all position players in WAR. The guy he’s tied with is sometimes-shortstop Jung-ho Kang.

I don’t think anyone’s going to argue that Kang might be the best shortstop in baseball. He hasn’t performed at the level for long enough, nor does he quite have the defensive profile. Increasingly, however, it’s becoming clear that Kang was a hell of a find. His second-half offense has been about on par with Josh Donaldson and Chris Davis. Kang, in his rookie season, has shown several signs of promising development. The easiest possible explanation for each? It’s noise. Total randomness, devoid of any meaning. But I’m going to offer an easy alternate explanation. Kang seemingly keeps getting better. Maybe it’s obvious why.

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Perpetually Looping Video: Jon Gray’s Life-Affirming Fastball

On the one hand, cultural critics suggest openly that — not unlike the bread-and-circus efforts of Caesar’s Rome — that sport serves as an opiate of the masses. On the other hand, a thing that people fail to recognize is how opiates make you feel indestructible and also there are no side effects.

In conclusion, what one finds here is footage of three fastballs, all thrown by Colorado rookie right-hander Jon Gray this evening against the Mets for strikeouts — and all recorded at 95 mph or greater. Mere diversion or monument to human potential: this is the reader’s choice, ultimately.


FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron on Dombrowski and All GMs

Episode 584
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he discusses the release of general manager Dave Dombrowski from his contract with the Detroit Tigers, Dombrowski’s strengths and weaknesses, and what Dombrowski’s career teaches us about other GMs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 40 min play time.)

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The Phillies Are on Fire for Some Reason

When the Padres decided to sell nothing at all at the trade deadline, one of the public explanations was that the team didn’t want to give up on the playoffs. And one of the explanations for that line of thinking was that the schedule looked pretty soft, so the Padres would have a chance to rack up some much-needed wins against lesser competition. At the time, it seemed more like a fantasy. And now the Padres’ odds are somehow even longer. Their season, for all intents and purposes, is finished. For, this past weekend, they were swept at home by the Phillies.

The Phillies, who are having trouble losing. I don’t know how to gauge public awareness, but just in case you haven’t noticed, the Phillies are playing some really good baseball. I imagine a lot of people tuned out entirely once Cole Hamels went away, and the season started so poorly it wasn’t even worth acknowledging the Phillies’ record, but, as hot as the Blue Jays are at the moment, the Phillies might be no cooler. It’s the Phillies who have baseball’s best record since the All-Star break, at 16-5. You’ll recall it was the Phillies who had baseball’s worst record at the All-Star break, at 29-62. A 52-win pace became a 123-win pace, and while we can still say with a high degree of certainty that the Phillies as presently built are not good, this is the sort of run that has to be talked about. Three or so weeks of the Phillies winning more than anyone else. For those three weeks, I can offer three thoughts.

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Effectively Wild Episode 714: The 2015 MLB Debuts Draft

Ben and Sam banter about last week’s banter and the Dodgers’ speed camp, then draft players who made their big league debuts in 2015.


JABO: Trying to Make an MVP Case for Mark Teixeira

Unless he changes his name to Mike Trout and has some pretty impressive plastic surgery, there’s not a strong argument to be made for Mark Teixeira as the AL MVP this season. Teixeira currently leads the Yankees in FanGraphs WAR at 3.3 but he’s only 14th in WAR among AL batters, behind the likes of Logan Forsythe, Kevin Kiermaier, and, well, 11 others. Throw in pitchers and there are seven more above Teixeira. So despite having quite a comeback season and despite being the best hitter on a first place team, Teixeira isn’t in the AL MVP conversation.

But what if we try hard to put him there? Maybe we can find something we’re missing, some way that, even if things stay as they are through the rest of the season, Teixeira deserves to carry the mantle of best player in the American League. It’s probably a stretch, but what the heck! What else is a guy to do on a Sunday night? (Please, please don’t answer that.)

Right off the bat, and you know this is going to be good because I’m already resorting to baseball-themed cliche, I should acknowledge that leading the league in WAR doesn’t necessitate winning the MVP, but for our purposes here, it’s an easy way to sort players, especially since the presumed leader in the race also happens to be the leader in WAR. So convenient!

Including pitchers, there are 21 players with a higher WAR than Teixeira so far this season. Moving a guy from 22nd to first without him actually doing anything is a lot to ask, but here we go! We can start off by saying this: pitchers shouldn’t win the MVP. Pitching is a completely different position and necessitates different skills and should be judged independently. That’s why pitchers have the Cy Young award. Do I believe this? No! But it works here and we press onward! So drop the seven pitchers from the list and Teixeira moves up to 14th. That’s progress! I wish all my housing projects were this easily accomplished.

Read the rest at Just A Bit Outside.


Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/10/15

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NERD Game Scores for Monday, August 10, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Gonzalez (115.1 IP, 92 xFIP-) vs. Anderson (123.2 IP, 90 xFIP-)
It has come to the author’s attention that, at some point between last Sunday (when I began my week’s vacation) and this morning, Dodgers catching prospect Austin Barnes was optioned back to Triple-A Oklahoma City. Were I susceptible to hyperbole, I might suggest that this is the worst thing to happen ever. Recognizing, however, that the use of the superlative more often than not represents an assault on the imagination, I’ll merely suggest that it would have been a pleasure to observe Barnes in another major-league game. Nevertheless, this encounter offers other means of pleasure — in particular, by featuring two clubs for whom the result is totally relevant to their odds of reaching the postseason.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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Alex Wood Is Finding His Strikeouts Again

Just before the trade deadline, the Braves, Marlins, and Dodgers struck a big deal, at least in terms of quantity of players and money being moved around; 13 players changed uniforms, and when the dust settled, the Dodgers came away with a trio of pitchers to upgrade their staff: starters Alex Wood and Mat Latos, along with reliever Jim Johnson. While they had been a heavily-rumored destination for frontline pitchers like David Price, Johnny Cueto, and Cole Hamels, the Dodgers ultimately decided to with depth over star power, adding multiple good arms rather than one great one.

Of course, a large driver of that decision was the relative cost, as they could acquire these kinds of pitchers without surrendering any of their best young talents, and they’ll also control Wood’s rights through the 2019 season; he won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after next year, so he’s going to make something close to the league minimum next year. So, while no one thinks Wood is on David Price’s level as a pitcher, he offered a better value when future years of control and financial obligations are factored in.

But choosing Wood and Latos over one better pitcher wasn’t just about getting a cheaper pitcher, or even just about getting a guy they could control for multiple years. In Alex Wood, the Dodgers were attempting to buy low on an asset with significant upside, which is exactly the kind of move that they’ve been making ever since Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi took over the baseball operations department last winter.

If you want to know why the Braves were willing to trade a 24 year old pitcher with four years of control remaining after this season, you can essentially sum up their reasoning in one easy table.

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Daily Projections by SaberSim on FanGraphs!

Daily projections courtesy of SaberSim.com are now available on the player pages and in a sortable format!

Matt Hunter, creator of SaberSim.com, explains the projections:

FanGraphs has long been home to a variety of excellent projection systems, each with its own distinguishing features that attempt to predict future performance as effectively as possible. Though these systems differ from one another in many respects, one common trait is that they project performance over an extended period of time—season, rest of season, or even multiple seasons. Beginning this week, FanGraphs will also feature a daily projection for each player. The daily projections are created by SaberSim, and are updated each day to reflect the specific factors the player will encounter in the matchup at hand.

SaberSim, as the name suggests, utilizes simulation to produce player and team projections. By simulating – thousands of times – every event of a particular game, the simulator is able to account for the unique context of each game and the interaction between players, using the actual posted lineups and starting pitcher assignments. It starts with Steamer rest-of-season projections (including handedness splits) for each player, then adjusts the probability of each event based on a number of context-specific factors. These include: regressed home-plate umpire strikeout/walk tendencies, handedness- and event-specific park factors, game-time temperature and wind speed/direction, home/away splits, and perhaps most importantly, batter-pitcher matchups using the Odds Ratio method. The adjusted rates are then fed into the simulator, which keeps track of the outcome of each play and the statistics for each player over the course of the simulated games.

The daily projection for every player in a starting lineup on a given day is featured towards the top of his player page, and the full leaderboard can be found in the Projections page linked above. The projections consist of the mean number of each outcome a player produced over the course of thousands of simulated games. Therefore, the numbers displayed do not represent the probability of each event happening, but rather the average number of times it happened per simulated game.

A quick note on these projections: the simulator currently only runs games with a single starting lineup for each team – for lineups that aren’t yet posted, we use the team’s most recent lineup vs. the opposing pitcher’s handedness. This means that until lineups are officially posted, you may not see projections for all players – if, for example, a player had a day off the day before. Because of this, the projections are most accurate and useful after all lineups from a given game are official. Usually this occurs about 4-5 hours before start time.

Over the past year and a half, SaberSim has grown from a basic simulator to an advanced tool for projecting daily performance on an individual and team level. While all player projections can be found right here on FanGraphs, you can find additional data and tools, such as specific team and player distributions and a daily fantasy lineup optimizer, on SaberSim.com. We look forward to sharing these daily projections with the FanGraphs community over the days and weeks to come, and welcome any comments, criticisms, or suggestions as we continue to improve the effectiveness of the simulator and the site. Enjoy!