FanGraphs Baseball

The Cincinnati Reds front office underwent a makeover a few weeks ago. Dick Williams, a 44-year-old former investment banker, was appointed the club’s general manager. Walt Jocketty, who is heading into the final year of his contract, moved from GM to President of Baseball Operations.

Williams, who had been the assistant GM, will continue to work under Jocketty until the latter steps down at the end of the 2016 season. Not a lot is expected to change over the next 10-11 months, but it will be interesting to see how differently the Reds operate once Williams is handed the decision-making reins. Jocketty has a business background of own, but he’s also 64 years old and cut his teeth on scouting. By today’s standards, he’s very much an old school executive. Professionally speaking, Williams was weaned on analytics.

Williams talked about his philosophies during last week’s GM meetings in Boca Raton.

——

On working with and learning from Walt Jocketty: “It’s hard to work for a guy for eight years and not learn from him as you go. Walt has been an executive of the year for a couple of different teams. He’s been here for 20-plus years and has a ring. I’ve learned a lot from Walt.

“I got into baseball a little later in life. I was in my mid 30s. I had close to a 15-year business career in investment banking and private equity. My background isn’t totally unique in baseball front offices, but it’s somewhat unique, and it’s shaped a lot of who I am and how I think about problems.

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Position: Chicago Cubs Analyst (Pitching Evaluation), Research & Development

Location: Chicago

Description:

The Chicago Cubs are seeking an Analyst for the team’s Baseball Research and Development group. The role will focus primarily on using an analytical approach for the evaluation and projection of pitcher performance. The analyst will work closely with the R&D team to develop methods to improve the effective understanding and application of in-game pitch data throughout Baseball Operations. The Chicago Cubs are an Equal Opportunity Employer.

Responsibilities:

• Research, develop and test methods and models of pitcher performance to support Baseball Operations decision-making.
• Prepare and explore a variety of pitch data sets and construct workflows to utilize these data.
• Conduct in-depth evaluation of a wide range of major league, minor league and amateur pitchers.
• Work closely with all groups within Baseball Operations to successfully combine analytic, scouting and player development information into integrated evaluations.
• Effectively present analyses through the use of written reports and data visualization methods to disseminate insights to other members of the Baseball Operations staff and leadership.
• Maintain working expertise of state-of-the-art analytics, including publicly available research and novel statistical approaches, in order to recommend new or emerging techniques, technologies, models and algorithms.
• Other projects and related duties as directed by Director, Research & Development and Baseball Operations leadership team.

Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s degree in an analytic field such as statistics, engineering, applied math, physics, quantitative social sciences, computer science, operations research.
• Demonstrated experience with pitch data analysis and pitch-level datasets (e.g., PITCHf/x or TrackMan).
• Advanced understanding of statistical methods or machine learning techniques.
• Demonstrated experience with programming languages (e.g., C, Python or R).
• Demonstrated ability to communicate technical ideas to non-technical audiences using data visualization.
• Demonstrated work ethic and passion for baseball operations.
• Proficiency with modern database technologies.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
Please apply here.

Episode 609
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he discusses important developments on the topic of qualifying offers; the trade that’s sent Andrelton Simmons to Anaheim; and the other, more different trade that’s sent Craig Kimbrel to Boston.

This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 47 min play time.)

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According to Jeff Passan, the A’s have signed left-handed pitcher Rich Hill to a one year, $6 million deal.

Source: Rich Hill agrees to terms with Oakland. One-year deal for $6 million, pending physical.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 18, 2015

Rich Hill had a big market, and one team said it had a bigger-money offer on table than Oakland's. Hill liked A's guaranteed rotation spot.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 18, 2015

This morning, I ranked Hill at #4 on my Free Agent Bargains post, and wrote the following.

#4: Rich Hill, LHP
Crowd’s Estimate: 1 year, $6 million
Dave’s Estimate: 1 year, $7 million
2016 Steamer Projection: +2.5 WAR

Probably the hardest guy on the market to value, Hill went from a non-roster invite to a fascinating test case in extreme performance in small samples with his dominating September run for the Red Sox. His success came out of nowhere, and it would be irresponsible to expect those four starts to represent some kind of new level of ability that he reached at the age of 35, but at the same time, we also don’t want to entirely ignore the fact that he put together a 29 inning stretch of Kershawian performance.

Over that four start stretch, hitters made contact on only 75% of their swings at his pitches in the strike zone, which is the kind of number that tends to identify skill more quickly than a lot of others. He’s not going to sustain that number — Max Scherzer led all MLB starters at 79% last year — but given that his lack of a track record is going to keep the commitment short, I think it’s worth betting a decent amount of 2016 salary on the chance that there Hill’s crazy finish to 2015 suggests that he’s figured something out.

No one should expect ace-like performance, and you’re basically buying a lottery ticket, but we’ve seen enough Cliff Lee transformations to not entirely discount the idea that Hill could be a quality arm for the team that takes the risk. Maybe he won’t be able to stay healthy; maybe it will turn out to be a colossal fluke. But for the kind of dollars that get you a mediocre bench player with some clubhouse chemistry voodoo, I’d take a flyer on Hill and just see what I get. If there’s even a 20% chance he’s a quality starting pitcher next year, throwing $5 to $10 million his way is a worthwhile use of funds for a team that needs to buy upside on the cheap.

The A’s are the embodiment of a team that needs to buy upside on the cheap, and this is exactly the kind of risk that makes sense for a team in their position. This is similar — though even more risky — to the Scott Kazmir bet they made two years ago, and that turned out quite well for them; it’s not a huge surprise to see them go back to this well. Hill’s upside makes this kind of gamble worthwhile, even if there’s a pretty high likelihood that he doesn’t really give them much value next year. It’s probably best to look at Hill kind of like a prospect, with an absurdly high bust rate but also a chance of returning a lot of value if he pans out.

Anyone who’s ever tried to analyze baseball has had the occasions of coming away fairly humbled by the experience. I’ve been made to look stupid at least dozens of times, but one that really sticks out is a blog entry from May 2007, when I figured a mid-30s Raul Ibanez was about out of bat speed and power. From the date of that entry through the end of his career, Ibanez batted more than 4,000 times, drilling 166 home runs while posting a 112 wRC+ and making something like $50 million. Ibanez remained with the Mariners, left them, came back more than a half-decade later, and that year was the best hitter on the team. He was never toast until he was. It’s hard to look into the toaster.

Next season is going to be David Ortiz’s last. The official announcement is apparently coming Wednesday, but the word is out now, and it’s unlikely Ortiz is suddenly going to reverse course next November. So 2016 will bring another farewell tour for another franchise icon, and at every stop, people are going to share their memories. We all have our own, and if we’re being honest, we all have several. Among mine is that, time and time again, it’s been speculated that Ortiz was about at the end of the road. It’s a perfectly reasonable position to take with a player getting up there in years, but to Ortiz’s credit, there have been slumps, but he still hasn’t actually declined. He turns 40 tomorrow.

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Ben and Sam discuss why three free agents accepted qualifying offers, then break down both sides of the Andrelton Simmons trade.

Ever have one of those days where as soon as you wake up, things begin going awry? Simple tasks suddenly seem difficult? You burn your toast. You go to feed the dog, but it’s dark in the pantry and you accidentally dump the food in the adjacent water dish rather than the food bowl. You’re in the shower, hands lathered up with shampoo, and you feel a tickle in your eye. You know better than to scratch it but it’s early and you haven’t had your coffee and the whole time you’re raising that hand towards your face your mind is telling you no no no stop right now damnit you’re going to ruin your morning idiot and then you just plunge that finger in there and scratch away. I’m talking a deep prod.

As the burn persists, you begin to stew. Why? How? Am I not a full-grown adult, capable of moving from simple task to simple task throughout my life without being met by wretched, shameful failure along each step of the way? Have I made it this far on good fortune alone? Once the burn subsides, you consider going back to bed. Just for 30 minutes. Pull the covers up, set an alarm, get yourself up in a half hour and pretend like none of that ever happened. Reset. But you know you can’t. It’s too late now. You’ve already gotten up and started the day; it would be a coward’s move to let it beat you this quickly. Besides, you’ve got to start writing your morning blog post.

* * *

Sometimes, pitchers throw a really bad pitch.

We explored this topic yesterday with regards to the non-competitive pitch, or a pitch that ends up several feet from the center of the strike zone. Plenty of these pitches come on two-strike counts, which makes sense. In two-strike counts pitchers tend to work outside the zone, leaving less room for error for the difference between a slightly-outside pitch and a way-outside pitch. Consider also that pitchers are usually trying to throw strikes, meaning there’s less muscle memory for the times that they’re trying not to throw strikes. In a way, it goes against what their body is most accustomed to doing. You’d figure that every now and then, one would slip.

It’s one thing for a pitcher to do this in a two-strike count when he’s already thrown 83 pitches that day and he’s not really even trying to throw a strike. Sometimes, pitchers throw a really bad pitch. But sometimes, pitchers throw a really bad pitch on the first pitch of the game. Pitchers always want to throw a strike on the first pitch of the game! Like, all of them. It’s one of the only things in baseball that’s an absolute guarantee. It’s literally the only reason Alcides Escobar became a thing in the postseason, because he decided to start taking advantage of the most obvious, telegraphed plan of attack in all of sport. Every pitcher wants to go out there and pound one in the zone. Every one. Yet, sometimes, it still doesn’t happen. Sometimes, a pitcher puts his jersey on, laces up those cleats, grabs his hat and his glove, walks out on the mound and just shoves a fingerful of shampoo in his eye. The same thoughts go through his mind. The why, the how, the can I go on or should I just go back to bed? Too late now. He’s got a game to pitch. As for the why and the how, it’s impossible to say for sure, but we can give our best guess.

No. 10 – Garrett Richards

• Location: 3.86 feet from the center of the PITCHf/x strike zone
• At-bat result: Fly out
• Outing result: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 HR, 2 BB, 5 K (1.99 ERA, 2.99 FIP)
• Explanation: Shampoo in the eye pre-game. These athletes really aren’t that different from you and I.

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While the early off-season has mostly been driven by trades — with Jerry Dipoto seemingly involved in about 80% of them — we’re reaching the point of the winter where we should expect to start seeing some free agents come off the board. Teams have had a few weeks to negotiate with various options, narrow down who might actually be a viable acquisition, and pick a direction in which to head. While there’s often a lot of activity at the winter meetings, a number of significant free agents likely won’t wait three more weeks before they pick their next home, and so I’d expect a few big dominos to start falling into place relatively soon.

So, with that background, it’s time for my annual list of free agent recommendations. For the last few years I’ve picked through the crop of free agents and selected a handful of players I think would be good values at the prices that we expect players to sign for, and as you’d expect, looking back at those recommendations is a pretty mixed bag. Teams following my suggestions maybe would have landed some bargains in Francisco Liriano, Scott Kazmir, and Russell Martin, but they also would have been stuck with Omar Infante, Nick Swisher, and Melvin Upton. Picking free agents is fraught with risk, and it’s not like we have it all figured out over here.

But as is the case every year, there are some guys that I think would be worth pursuing, as my perception of their value is higher than what we think the market is going to give them. In some cases, MLB teams might agree with me and drive up the bidding to a reasonable point — Brian McCann a few years ago, for instance, when the crowd’s estimate proved way too low — but some of these guys will likely sign a diminished price due to some flaws that teams discount more heavily than I do. In my view, these are the guys who are present the best opportunity for upside value in this free agent class.

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The sabermetric movement has grown up over the last decade. A thing that you regularly hear now that you maybe wouldn’t have heard 10 years ago is this: I don’t know. So that’s where we start today. We don’t know what the going rate for ace relief pitchers is. That said, we do have one strong data point following this weekend’s trade of Craig Kimbrel by the Padres to the Red Sox, and it suggests that the cost to grab one of the best relievers in baseball is now substantial, akin to what it might have cost to get an ace starter some years ago.

Kimbrel is an elite relief pitcher, but it was surprising to see Boston acquire him for four prospects, including two top-50 prospects in outfielder Manuel Margot and shortstop Javier Guerra. On top of that already substantial talent the Red Sox tossed in starting pitcher Logan Allen and infielder Carlos Asuaje. That’s a ton of young talent to give up for anyone, let alone for three years of a reliever. It looks quite possibly as though the Red Sox have reset the cost for acquiring a top reliever. But have they?

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