FanGraphs Baseball

Sunday Notes: Series, Sveum, Pitching Coaches, Rays, more

A lot has been written about the Royals’ hitting approach. Not enough has been written about their hitting coach. A moribund offense became a much more dangerous one after Dale Sveum stepped into the role last May.

As you know, Kansas City hitters don’t strike out very often. Their 15.9 K-date was the lowest in both leagues. Aggressive to a fault, they put more balls in play with no strikes on the batter (1,475 times) than any other team.

Not surprisingly, Sveum likes contact, especially when his team is rallying.

“You get three outs in an inning, and if you strike out for two of those outs, your odds of coming back aren’t going to be very good,” said Sveum. “But if you put three balls in play, something might fall and you keep the line moving.” Read the rest of this entry »


2015 World Series Game Four Live Weblog

7:49
Carson Cistulli: This is the World Series Game Four Live Weblog. Please don’t hesitate to begin saying whatever you’ve come here to say.

7:50
Carson Cistulli: Perhaps consider this: what the over/under on infield fly balls induced by Chris Young? That seems like a moderately interesting question to contemplate.

7:52
Comment From tz
5. Or, one per inning pitched

7:55
Comment From Mayor McCheese
12

7:55
Comment From Jenstrom
I’ll say 3. And aren’t we lucky to chat with sexy Carson Cistulli!

7:57
Neil Weinberg: The price is also being required to chat with Owen and me.

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Effectively Wild Episode 756: The Unwritten Rules of Syndergaard-Escobar

Ben and Sam do a quick bonus Saturday episode on Mets starter Noah Syndergaard’s first pitch of World Series Game 3.


The Best of FanGraphs: October 26-30, 2015

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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The Adjustment Noah Syndergaard Made

The first pitch Noah Syndergaard threw Friday night sent Alcides Escobar to the ground. Syndergaard didn’t give Escobar an opportunity to swing because the instinctive priority was for him to get his head out of the way, and Syndergaard didn’t bother trying to disguise his intent after the game. He owned up to it — he wanted to give the Royals a little fright. The Royals, in turn, were furious, as they’re allowed to be, but the rest of the game spun the narrative wheel, and it ultimately settled on “Syndergaard delivered a message.” In the end he pitched pretty well and the Mets emerged victorious, so Syndergaard gets the favorable press.

But for whatever it’s worth, if Syndergaard did succeed in intimidating his opponent, it didn’t look that way early on, when the brushback was most fresh. After Escobar got knocked down, the Royals scored a run in the first. They scored another two in the second. The immediate aftermath, for Syndergaard, was troublesome, and the national broadcast speculated that he’d only succeeded in waking the Royals up. It was only after Syndergaard turned his game around that the conversation grew more sunny. And as a part of that process, Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud made a change on the fly.

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World Series Game 3: Mets 9, Royals 3

It’s almost as though every angle and storyline has been covered already. There are 377 assigned seats in the Citi Field press box (including auxiliary seating), and plenty more media members offering perspectives from afar. The World Series doesn’t lack ink, electronic or otherwise.

But this is baseball. There’s always something more to write, because you never know what you’re going to see.

What happened on the first pitch of tonight’s game was presaged yesterday. Asked about how he might combat Alcides Escobar’s recent – and scarily good – first-pitch success, the Mets starter said he “had a few tricks up his sleeve that was going to pull out.”

On Halloween Eve, Escobar stepped into the box and was immediately treated to a 98-mph fastball that sent him sprawling. A few pitches later, the Royals lead-off hitter went down swinging.

At which point things started to go downhill for Thor. Ben Zobrist doubled over Yoenis Cespedes‘ head in center field and he eventually came around to score when the Mets couldn’t turn a 3-6-3 double play. Syndergaard getting tangled up with Lucas Duda near the bag didn’t cost the out – Wilmer Flores‘ throw was off line – but the play had snafu written all over it.

An inning later, Syndergaard gave up four hits and a pair of runs, one of them scoring on a pitch that skipped to the backstop. Were it not for an overturned safe call at third base – the baserunning boo-boo belonged to Alex Gordon — the damage could have been worse.

Yordano Ventura started off even shakier. Curtis Granderson led off the bottom of the first with a single and David Wright followed with a blast over the left-center field fence. It was the first for the Mets captain this postseason, and the 16th for the team. Home run #17 came in the third inning when The Grandy Man went yard after a Syndergaard single. With his base knock, the righty with the long, blonde locks became the eighth pitcher in Mets history to get a hit in the World Series.

In the top of the fifth, Kansas City’s Raul Mondesi became the first player in history to make his major league debut in the World Series. Pinch hitting for Ventura, he went down meekly against Syndergaard’s heat.

On Thursday, Zobrist told reporters that certain teams will “do some stuff” to get into the emotional Ventura’s head. In the bottom of the fifth, they did stuff to chase him from the game. Duda started the frame with a shift-beating grounder. Travis d’Arnaud then rang a two-bagger. Michael Conforto, mired in an 0-for-20 slump – “very good at bats and nothing to show for it,” according to Terry Collins – then plated New York’s fifth run with a something-to-show-for-it infield hit. Ventura, who failed to cover first on the right-side chopper, was bound for the showers.

Unlike his flame-throwing counterpart, Syndergaard refused to turn into a pumpkin. Instead, he turned into a middle-innings beast. Beginning with the last out of the second, he set down 12 straight, six by way of the K.

Escobar told me yesterday that he “really wants to win a Gold Glove.” In the sixth inning, Flores showed that he’s pretty good too. With the bases drunk, the slick-fielding shortstop ranged up the middle to throw out Alex Rios, just nipping him at first. The under-the-radar play essentially quash Kansas City’s chances.

A four-run bottom of the sixth sealed the deal. It was meltdown city for the visitors, epitomized by a Franklin Morales brain cramp. The lefty fielded a fist-and-third comebacker, whirled, whirled again… and held the ball. He might well have spun himself into the ground, because by inning’s end, the score stood 9-3.

It ended that way. Any hopes the Royals had of putting the Mets in a 3-0 hole were long gone. Tomorrow night is Steven Matz versus Chris Young – it’s also Halloween – and New York is very much alive.


Contract Crowdsourcing 2015-16: Day 15 of 15 (Part Two)

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the giant and large 2015-16 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for six of this year’s free agents, representing the second half of the reliever group — and the final collection of players available for balloting, providing the author hasn’t omitted an important player like usual.

Other Players: Brett Anderson / Nori Aoki / Alex Avila / Antonio Bastardo / Joe Blanton / Jonathan Broxton / Mark Buehrle / Marlon Byrd / Asdrubal Cabrera / Trevor Cahill / Yoenis Cespedes / Wei-Yin Chen / Bartolo Colon / Johnny Cueto / Chris Davis / Rajai Davis / Alejandro De Aza / Ian Desmond / R.A. Dickey / Stephen Drew / Marco Estrada / Doug Fister / Dexter Fowler / David Freese / Yovani Gallardo / Jaime Garcia / Alex Gordon / Zack Greinke / Jeremy Guthrie / J.A. Happ / Jason Heyward / Rich Hill / J.P. Howell / Tommy Hunter / Torii Hunter / Chris Iannetta / Hisashi Iwakuma / Austin Jackson / John Jaso / Kelly Johnson / Matt Joyce / Scott Kazmir / Howie Kendrick / Kyle Kendrick / Ian Kennedy / John Lackey / Mat Latos / Mike Leake / Tim Lincecum / Kyle Lohse / Justin Masterson / Justin Morneau / Brandon Morrow / Daniel Murphy / David Murphy / Mike Napoli / Dioner Navarro / Bud Norris / Gerardo Parra / Steve Pearce / Mike Pelfrey / David Price / Alexei Ramirez / Colby Rasmus / Alex Rios / Jimmy Rollins / Jeff Samardzija / Alfredo Simon / Geovany Soto / Denard Span / Justin Upton / Juan Uribe / Chase Utley / Will Venable / Shane Victorino / Matt Wieters / Chris Young the Outfielder / Chris Young the Pitcher / Jordan Zimmermann / Ben Zobrist.

***

Shawn Kelley (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Kelley:

  • Has averaged 52 IP and 0.7 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 0.9 WAR per 65 IP* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 0.9 WAR in 51.1 IP in 2015.
  • Is projected to record 0.7 WAR per 65 IP**.
  • Is entering his age-32 season.
  • Made $2.8M in 2015, as part of deal signed in January 2015.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of 2016 Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Kelley.

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2015 World Series Game Three Live Blog

7:53
Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this. The Royals and the Mets are both wearing traditional uniforms, thank heavens. I’m going to get a beer and then we’ll get started. Hope you’ll join us all night!

7:57
Comment From Jon
Let’s go Mets! FAN… do do do

7:59
Paul Swydan: Looking at the poll results, it seems that people think that Syndergaard is going to pitch well and that the Mets are going to win. And that they have to win.

Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2015-16: Day 15 of 15

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the giant and large 2015-16 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for six of this year’s free agents, the first half of the reliever we’ll consider here.

Other Players: Brett Anderson / Nori Aoki / Alex Avila / Mark Buehrle / Marlon Byrd / Asdrubal Cabrera / Yoenis Cespedes / Wei-Yin Chen / Bartolo Colon / Johnny Cueto / Chris Davis / Rajai Davis / Alejandro De Aza / Ian Desmond / R.A. Dickey / Stephen Drew / Marco Estrada / Doug Fister / Dexter Fowler / David Freese / Yovani Gallardo / Jaime Garcia / Alex Gordon / Zack Greinke / Jeremy Guthrie / J.A. Happ / Jason Heyward / Rich Hill / Torii Hunter / Chris Iannetta / Hisashi Iwakuma / Austin Jackson / John Jaso / Kelly Johnson / Matt Joyce / Scott Kazmir / Howie Kendrick / Kyle Kendrick / Ian Kennedy / John Lackey / Mat Latos / Mike Leake / Tim Lincecum / Kyle Lohse / Justin Masterson / Justin Morneau / Brandon Morrow / Daniel Murphy / David Murphy / Mike Napoli / Dioner Navarro / Bud Norris / Gerardo Parra / Steve Pearce / Mike Pelfrey / David Price / Alexei Ramirez / Colby Rasmus / Alex Rios / Jimmy Rollins / Jeff Samardzija / Alfredo Simon / Geovany Soto / Denard Span / Justin Upton / Juan Uribe / Chase Utley / Will Venable / Shane Victorino / Matt Wieters / Chris Young the Outfielder / Chris Young the Pitcher / Jordan Zimmermann / Ben Zobrist.

***

Antonio Bastardo (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Bastardo:

  • Has averaged 54 IP and 0.7 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 0.8 WAR per 65 IP* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 0.6 WAR in 57.1 IP in 2015.
  • Is projected to record 0.4 WAR per 65 IP**.
  • Is entering his age-30 season.
  • Made $3.1M in 2015, as part of deal signed in January 2015

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of 2016 Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Bastardo.

Read the rest of this entry »


Thanks for Being Awesome, Grantland

ESPN announced today that they are suspending operations — in other words, closing down — Grantland, the site that was originally built around Bill Simmons but grew into a place with some of the best sportswriting on the planet. Their baseball coverage was phenomenal, as Jonah Keri (hired away from FanGraphs when they decided to bring in a full-time baseball writer) and Ben Lindbergh regularly put out the kind of in-depth, intelligent-but-still-approachable writing about the sport that made me jealous of their abilities.

So, as a celebration of their work, here are some of the best baseball pieces I read at Grantland over the last few years. This is just off the top of my head (and a few of FG authors who kicked in suggestions while I was writing this), so I’m certainly going to be missing a good number of great pieces, but feel free to add your own favorites in the comments below.

The Art of Pitch Framing — Lindbergh’s seminal piece on the topic.

Grand Theft Baseball — Keri’s terrific piece on stealing bases with Coco Crisp.

Rocked — An oral history of the 1989 World Series earthquake.

The Tragedy of Derek Jeter’s Defense — Lindbergh on The Captain’s glovework.

Ty Cobb as Detroit — Anna Clark on the Tigers legend.

The Website MLB Couldn’t Buy — The story of Twins.com.

Before Beane — Lindbergh on the early days of analytics in baseball.

The Year of Living Less Dangerously — Lindbergh on MLB’s changing home plate collision rule.

The Curious Case of Mark Buehrle — Rany Jazayerli on the guy who gets outs throwing 83.

Eephus Influence — Keri on the most fun pitch in baseball.

Just so much great work was published over there, because Grantland hired really talented people and gave them the ability to do creative interesting stories. I’ll miss Grantland as a one-stop place for this kind of writing, but with writers this good, I’m sure we’ll keep seeing great work from them at other places in the not too distant future.