FanGraphs Baseball

Ben and Sam banter about TBS baseball broadcasts, then discuss the Chase Utley slide in Game 2 of the Dodgers-Mets NLDS.

The first inning has just ended between Kansas City and Houston at the latter’s home field (box). Starters Yordano Ventura and Lance McCullers have already touched 97 and 96 mph, respectively, with their fastballs according to MLB.com’s Gameday data. Nor would it be particularly surprising for either starter to continue sitting at those velocities: among all the possible starting-pitcher matchups in these divisional series, the two involved in this game are likely to record the highest average combined velocity between any two starters.

Regard, by way of illustration, the following table, which features the top-10 average fastball velocities recorded by pitchers on postseason teams. Note that velocity figures are those produced by relevant pitcher in starting capacity alone. FB% denotes fastball frequency.

Average Fastball Velocity, Possible LDS Starters

	Name	Team	IP	FB%	FBv
1	Noah Syndergaard	Mets	150.0	61.7%	97.1
2	Yordano Ventura	Royals	163.1	57.6%	96.3
3	Matt Harvey	Mets	189.1	60.9%	95.9
4	Carlos Martinez*	Cardinals	174.2	56.9%	95.3
5	Jacob deGrom	Mets	191.0	61.8%	95.0
6	Jake Arrieta	Cubs	229.0	50.7%	94.6
7	Lance McCullers	Astros	125.2	53.8%	94.5
	Vincent Velasquez*	Astros	38.0	67.6%	94.5
9	Aaron Sanchez*	Blue Jays	66.0	76.5%	94.4
10	Steven Matz	Mets	35.2	68.4%	94.3
	Carlos Frias*	Dodgers	71.1	56.3%	94.3

*Omitted from LDS rotation/roster.

Had St. Louis right-hander Carlos Martinez not been shut down due to a shoulder strain, a hypothetical encounter between he and Jake Arrieta would have possibly produced a greater combined velocity. In his absence, however, McCullers and Ventura are likely to receive the distinction.

The scientific method begins by asking a question. Ask a question, do some research, and form a hypothesis. Once you’ve got your hypothesis, it’s time to do a little testing. Or, to employ a more lively word, experimenting. Once the test, ahem, experiment is underway, data is collected and analyzed, leading to new questions, new hypotheses and new experiments.

Over in Toronto, a season’s worth of question-asking, researching, hypothesizing, experimenting, analyzing, refining and retesting has been taking place, slowly building up to a grand experiment that will take place on the national stage when the Blue Jays have no room left for error with everything on the line. More likely than not, the experiment will go over just fine and Toronto’s hypothesis will be confirmed. Even if the experiment doesn’t go over fine, the hypothesis could hold water. There still exists the chance, though, that the test tubes suddenly begin to boil over, sending the experiment awry and the laboratory into a frenzy with no time left for reevaluating and retesting.
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Last night, the Blue Jays beat the Rangers 5-1 to extend the ALCS to a fourth game, keeping their season alive for at least one more day. But while the final score wasn’t particularly close, the Blue Jays did feel a bit of pressure in the seventh inning, when Marco Estrada gave up back to back singles with just one out and Rougned Odor coming to the plate. Odor didn’t represent the tying run, but the Jfays have seen him do enough damage to know that he was one swing away from making the game extremely tense again, and so, John Gibbons began to warm David Price in the bullpen. Without Brett Cecil, the team’s bullpen is thin on quality left-handers, and Gibbons wanted his ace to be prepared to put out a fire if need be.

Aaron Loup got Odor to ground out to short, and then Mark Lowe came in and struck out Robinson Chirinos, so Price ended up not pitching in last night’s game. But if Loup had failed to retire Odor, Price was apparently the man Gibbons was going to to turn to, even with three straight right-handed hitters due up. Per Arden Zwelling from Sportsnet:

Here are the situations that would have led to the 30-year-old Cy Young winner making his first relief appearance since 2010, according to the man himself:

In the bottom of the seventh inning, if Aaron Loup had not retired Rougned Odor, Price would have come in to face Robinson Chirinos and any subsequent batters in the inning.

In the bottom of the eighth, if Hanser Alberto and Delino DeShields reached base against Aaron Sanchez, Price would have come in to face Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder and Mitch Moreland.

In the bottom of the ninth, if Roberto Osuna had gotten into any kind of trouble, Price would have come in to save or lose the game.

Price stayed hot throughout all three of those innings but said after the game he doesn’t think that will affect his ability to pitch in Monday’s Game 4 or a potential fifth game back in Toronto. He was slated to throw a short side session Monday night regardless, and if the series does go five games, he’ll more than likely get that Wednesday start at Rogers Centre.

The Blue Jays can’t lose again in this series, and putting your ace on the mound to stave off elimination is a perfectly natural reaction. Tonight, though, I’d suggest that Gibbons should resist the urge, and give David Price the night off.

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On Friday night, we witnessed a matchup of starting pitchers in the Dodgers vs. Mets series that only comes along a few times every generation. Clayton Kershaw — in the middle of a career that is already alongside some of the great starting pitchers in history — went head to head versus Jacob deGrom, a leading National League Cy Young Award candidate and ace of the Mets staff.

Perhaps we shouldn’t have been surprised about the combined numbers the two starters produced: 13.2 IP, 9 H, 5 BB, 3 ER (two of which scored after Kershaw was replaced), and a staggering 24 strikeouts. The tally of strikeouts, for those who weren’t watching, was historic: Friday night marked the first game in postseason history that two starters each had at least 11 strikeouts. And, while Kershaw was very good, deGrom was better, going a full seven innings while allowing only six base runners, no runs, and 13 Ks. “Better” is in fact a serious understatement, as deGrom scythed through one of the best offenses in baseball in what was one of the most dominant postseason debuts in recent history.

Earlier this season, when Pedro Martinez was about to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, I wondered: what current starting pitcher possesses the same arsenal of pitches (by velocity) as vintage Pedro? While many commenters simply wrote “no one” in response to the article (an understandable response, given Martinez’ dominance), the answer was actually deGrom: possessing a fastball, changeup, and curveball that clocked in at almost identical speeds to 1999 Martinez.

We don’t have any data on how Martinez’ pitches moved, so comparing the all-important “nastiness” factor between Pedro and deGrom is impossible. However, the conclusion is there: deGrom has the stuff to compare to Martinez, and that simple fact is remarkable. This section toward the end of that piece comparing the two pitchers sums up both the limitations and excitement of the exercise:

“There is more to pitching than velocity, and Martinez’ acumen in terms of pitch sequencing and knowledge of hitters was one of the biggest reasons why he was so incredibly successful. deGrom might not have the other intangible skills (yet) that the newest Hall of Fame member possessed at his peak, but we can all agree: 1999 Pedro velocity is a pretty great starting point.”

Jacob deGrom isn’t Pedro Martinez. Basically no one can make that claim, and deGrom has a long, long way to go before their careers can be compared. However, for a few brief hours on Friday night, deGrom was almost as dominant as peak Martinez, and he was dominant in very similar ways. The similarities between the two were already there, and in many ways, they were cemented in the first game of the NLDS. Let’s dive into deGrom’s start to explain further.

First, there was the electric fastball, which compares very well to Pedro’s. Sitting at an average of 97 mph, he quickly established the pitch on Friday, throwing 85% fastballs in the first inning alone. From then on, he relied on the fastball in all situations and counts as his main pitch, only deviating from that plan to mix in first-pitch sliders to 44% of the right-handed hitters he faced. In fact, most of the “trouble” he got into on Friday night was against righties, so he pitched backwards to those hitters later in the game, relying on offspeed pitches early in counts to keep them off-balance.

In the first few innings, he relentlessly went after righties early in the count with fastballs before getting weak contact or whiffs with sliders, as he did to A.J. Ellis in the second inning:

Read the rest on Just a Bit Outside.

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Official word is in: Chase Utley has been given a two-game suspension for this.

Many league suspensions get appealed, though, and Utley’s case is no different, with Utley’s argument being that there isn’t much of a precedent for this at all. He wouldn’t have known he could get suspended for an aggressive takeout slide at second. A week and a half ago, this happened in Texas, and there wasn’t any discipline:

Unlike Utley’s slide, that one took place over the base, but it was also horribly late, with the runner coming down on the infielder’s shin. As the slide completed, the runner was several feet beyond the bag. But there wasn’t a major injury, and later on Rougned Odor apologized to Johnny Giavotella. It was one of those “just playing the game” things, and this isn’t meant to single out Odor. It seems like slides like this happen on a daily basis.

So, for Utley, it’s about the lack of precedent. He did something a lot of players would do, and he’s facing discipline in large part because the other guy happened to get injured. From the league’s standpoint, though, you have to start somewhere, if you want to eliminate this play. Someone has to be the first to get penalized, unless you want to wait to do anything until the playoffs are over. And I imagine they didn’t want to risk another injury. They wanted to make a statement, and this was an opportunity.

So! A poll, for you.

As most baseball fans are by now aware, Chase Utley was suspended for two games on Sunday evening by Major League Baseball. The suspension relates to Utley’s controversial takeout slide of Mets shortstop Ruben Tejada in Game 2 of the National League Division Series on Saturday night.

Utley’s agent, Joel Wolfe, quickly announced that Utley would be appealing the suspension, as is his right under MLB’s collective bargaining agreement:

“A two-game suspension for a legal baseball play is outrageous and completely unacceptable. Chase did what all players are taught to do in this situation – break up the double play. We routinely see plays at second base similar to this one that have not resulted in suspensions.

Chase feels terrible about Ruben Tejada’s injury and everyone who knows him knows that he would never intentionally hurt anybody. We will be appealing this suspension immediately.”

By appealing the suspension, Utley has temporarily delayed the imposition of his punishment, meaning that he remains eligible to play for the Dodgers until MLB holds a hearing on the matter and issues a final decision. However, with Utley conveniently already in New York City (the designated site of most appeals of this nature), MLB is reportedly planning hear Utley’s appeal today so that the matter can be resolved ahead of tonight’s Game 3 at Citi Field. Whether the appeal will actually go forward today or not, however, remains uncertain, as the Major League Baseball Players Association is reportedly pressing for more time to prepare Utley’s defense.

Given the unprecedented nature of Utley’s suspension, a number of commentators have already predicted that the punishment will either be reduced or entirely overturned. And while such an outcome is certainly possible, and perhaps even likely, it is not entirely inconceivable that the league will uphold Utley’s suspension.

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Unless you’re Cardinals fan, or you happened to watch a lot of Cardinals games this year, you’ve probably given very little thought to Tommy Pham. It’s very possible that you’d never even heard of him before this year’s playoffs. Heck, it’s even possible you’re still not even sure who he is or where he came from. But the 27-year-old rookie played a big role in Friday night’s game, when he blasted a pinch-hit homer off of Jon Lester in the 8th inning. His homer added an important insurance run for the Cards, extending their lead from one run to two. Check it out.

Hitting a homer isn’t a particularly rare occurrence for Pham, at least not lately. He hit five of them in his 173 big league trips to the plate this year, which helped propel him to a .268/.347/.477 batting line. His home-run total placed him third among Cardinals rookies, trailing only Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty. But unlike his rookie teammates, Pham missed the cut for just about every organizational prospect list — both this season and in every prior season.

His absence from these lists had almost everything to do with his age. Pham turned 27 back in March, making him significantly older than your average rookie. But while 27-year-old impact rookies are few and far between, Pham’s success hasn’t exactly come out of the woodwork. He hit .320/.391/.487 in 603 Triple-A plate appearances between this year and last, which was good for a 132 wRC+. To put that in context, Pham was essentially the Lucas Duda of Triple-A before the Cardinals gave him a call.

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That’s it. That’s the whole thing. There are contact sports out there. A whole lot of contact sports. Baseball is not and never has been among them.

Sometimes, players do come into contact with one another. Sometimes, they do so violently, and sometimes, when they do so violently, they’re even on opposing teams. It’s not that the players are forbidden to touch, and it’s not like there’s anything you can do to totally eliminate all collisions. But baseball, at its core, isn’t a contact sport. It’s a bat-and-ball sport, part catch and part golf. Baseball should be played in the spirit in which it was intended.

You ever wonder why players don’t wear pads? I mean, catchers wear pads, almost from head to toe, but that’s because they’re getting shot at by a cannon 130 times a game. Batters wear helmets because sometimes the cannon has a calibration error or an attitude. Defenders wear gloves because sometimes the cannonballs come in hot. Defenders wear cups for basically the same reason. But there isn’t anything else. No other helmets, no other chest protectors, no other shin guards. It’s not because ballplayers are tough guys, impervious to pain. It’s because ballplayers aren’t supposed to run into one another, and when they do, it’s either a freak accident, or something that hasn’t yet been sufficiently codified.

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