FanGraphs Baseball

That’s it. That’s the whole thing. There are contact sports out there. A whole lot of contact sports. Baseball is not and never has been among them.

Sometimes, players do come into contact with one another. Sometimes, they do so violently, and sometimes, when they do so violently, they’re even on opposing teams. It’s not that the players are forbidden to touch, and it’s not like there’s anything you can do to totally eliminate all collisions. But baseball, at its core, isn’t a contact sport. It’s a bat-and-ball sport, part catch and part golf. Baseball should be played in the spirit in which it was intended.

You ever wonder why players don’t wear pads? I mean, catchers wear pads, almost from head to toe, but that’s because they’re getting shot at by a cannon 130 times a game. Batters wear helmets because sometimes the cannon has a calibration error or an attitude. Defenders wear gloves because sometimes the cannonballs come in hot. Defenders wear cups for basically the same reason. But there isn’t anything else. No other helmets, no other chest protectors, no other shin guards. It’s not because ballplayers are tough guys, impervious to pain. It’s because ballplayers aren’t supposed to run into one another, and when they do, it’s either a freak accident, or something that hasn’t yet been sufficiently codified.

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The Cubs are a confident team. They should be. Despite a lack of experience at several key positions, Joe Maddon’s squad finished with the third-best record in baseball. Last night, they evened up the NLDS at one game apiece by besting the Cardinals.

When did the youthful squad realize they weren’t simply talented, but also capable of seriously contending for a post-season berth, and perhaps even a World Series title? It depends on who you ask.

Maddon suggests it was in early August, when his team won a key series at home against the Giants. The handful of players I queried on Tuesday offered somewhat different answers.

“It kind of kicked in early in the season,” said Chris Denorfia. “I think after we got that first month under our belt, we just started coming to the ballpark expecting to win. We never really had a long losing streak.” Read the rest of this entry »

When Bartolo Colon jogged in from the bullpen to replace Noah Syndergaard, we thought we were going to be talking about the wisdom of using a pitch-to-contact starter in relief when a strikeout was the preferred outcome. But then Howie Kendrick hit a line drive up the middle, which Daniel Murphy fielded and flipped to shortstop Ruben Tejada in an effort to turn an inning-ending double play. And then this happened.

There’s no real way to describe this play in any other way than this: Chase Utley, realizing his role shifted from baserunner to defender, barreled into Ruben Tejada with the intention of preventing him from throwing the ball to first base. To do this, Utley waited until the last possible moment to slide, not even attempting to touch the base as his body upended Tejada, whose legs were taken out from under him and then landed violently on the ground. The impact forced Tejada to be removed from the game.

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Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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The Rangers won on Friday in no small part because of Rougned Odor’s baserunning after he got to first. But no less impressive was Delino DeShields‘ baserunning on his way to first. In the 14th inning, this happened, immediately following the single that made the difference in the game. So while it turned out this RBI was unnecessary, it might’ve also been the single most incredible display of raw skill in the contest:

For some context, here’s a table, copied from this website. Rating times from home to first base:

Alternatively or additionally, from an old article by Jon Heyman:

Consider that on a swing a 4.0 time for a right-handed hitter and 3.9 for a left-handed hitter is considered an “8” on the 2-8 scout’s scale, or all-time great.

From contact, going frame by frame, I have the baseball arriving at first base in about 3.8 seconds. Fast enough to retire practically anyone and end the inning. But instead, DeShields seems rather easily safe. Because I have him getting from home to first — starting at contact — in about 3.7 seconds. Which would be three-tenths of a second faster than an 80-grade runner. It’s the same as the difference between an elite runner and an average one.

In some ways, footspeed is the most overrated skill in baseball. But sometimes, it really is enough to create something out of what ought to be nothing. Delino DeShields isn’t impossible to throw out, but you couldn’t blame Troy Tulowitzki if he’s feeling that way. Normal athletes don’t move that fast. Conventionally elite ones don’t either.

The second game of the Texas-Toronto ALDS ended in a memorable fashion, the Rangers surviving a razor-thin review of a potential third out to score two in the 14th and hold off the Blue Jays. This ended up obscuring the memorable way it began, with a top of the first replete with odd incidents. Had it not begun in this memorable way, there’s a good chance it wouldn’t have ended as memorably, so let’s look at all the weird stuff that happened.
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In the latest example of how playoff baseball is less predictable than a deer by a roadway, the Rangers just won two games in Toronto, with Ross Ohlendorf slamming the door, and with Rougned Odor’s baserunning arguably occupying center stage. In a game that sent 109 men to the plate, it wouldn’t be fair to suggest it all came down to one or two events, but there’s one event and one event only that’ll be dominating the conversation until Game 3. If you watched, you know what it is. If you didn’t watch, you probably still know what it is, because umpiring controversies have a way of getting around.

With two down in the top of the 14th, Odor slapped an infield single. That put the go-ahead run on first base, and then Odor advanced to second on a subsequent single. Odor actually rounded second aggressively, thinking about getting to third, but then he decided to return. Yet, cleverly, Jose Bautista threw behind him. There was a tag attempt, and, immediately, the play became everything.

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Ahead of the Wild Card Game between the Chicago Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates, much of analysis in between the announcement of the starting lineups was focused on the potential trade-off of offense for defense by the Pirates and vice versa for the Cubs. Clint Hurdle chose to start Sean Rodriguez instead of defensive liability Pedro Alvarez at first base. Joe Maddon chose to put Kyle Schwarber in right field and Kris Bryant in left field. Although the Cubs got the win, both moves were reasonable. In hindsight, the move by Maddon was not a big departure from normality, but whether the same justifications exist in the upcoming series against the Cardinals is debatable.

Putting third baseman Kris Bryant out in left field and inserting Tommy La Stella at third base was the biggest surprise about the Cubs lineup against the Pirates, but that position shift as well as others made a bit earlier in the year, put the Cubs defense out of position on almost every position in the field. Catcher Miguel Montero, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, and center fielder Dexter Fowler were in their typical everyday positions, but the other five players were playing at positions other than their typical 2015 setup. The chart below shows the percentage of innings each player played at the position where they started in the Wild Card game.

Percentage of Innings at Wild Card Position in 2015

	WC Position	Defensive Innings at WC Position	Total Defensive Innings	% of Innings at WC Position
Kris Bryant	LF	39	1313.1	3.0%
Kyle Schwarber	RF	14	445.2	3.1%
Starlin Castro	2B	258	1201	21.5%
Tommy La Stella	3B	52	140	37.1%
Addison Russell	SS	471.1	1217.1	38.7%

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The St. Louis Cardinals won 100 regular season games this year and there’s no way to keep that from sounding impressive. They had a fantastic season. No matter how much their record benefited from good timing, the underlying performance was still great. Looking at their runs scored and allowed, they played like a team that would typically win 96 games. Looking at their expected runs scored and allowed, they played like an 89-win team. Depending on your preferred method for evaluating baseball teams, they were somewhere between very good and incredible.

It’s worth remembering that their best starting pitcher, and one of their best two or three players, didn’t making a single start for them after April 25. Adam Wainwright tore his Achilles and missed virtually the entire regular season and the team still won 100 games.

The Cardinals have depth, it’s one of their strengths. Wainwright went down and they were able to rely on Carlos Martinez, John Lackey, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, and Jaime Garcia for most of the 158 starts Wainwright was unable to provide. Those are interesting names. Martinez and Wacha were good prospects with high ceilings and Lynn has slowly caught on as an under-the-radar workhorse. The oft-injured Garcia has always been a quality arm during stretches in which he was able to use it. And of course, Lackey was the stalwart who’s been reliable since recovering from Tommy John three years ago.

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Ben and Sam review the first games of the American League Division Series, then discuss the Cubs-Cardinals and Dodgers-Mets matchups.