FanGraphs Baseball

We live in the age of multiple playoff levels and one of the results of this is we get many different playoff winners, and each playoff winner has to have a playoff winner celebration. Celebrations used to be more sedate than they are now, but things have changed since Don Larsen struck out Bill Mitchell and jogged solemnly off the mound after having thrown the first and to date only perfect game in the World Series. No big deal, really, when you think about it. Today, though, players never miss a chance to jump up and down and yell and celebrate and be happy. This being FanGraphs though, we can’t simply observe this behavior. We have to analyze it. Because we hate baseball.

Last Thursday in a match up between a team we thought might go to the post-season and a team named the Royals, the Royals beat the Mariners 10-4 to clinch their first AL Central division title ever. Seriously. The last time the Royals won a division title they were in a different division. The final out came when Kyle Seager grounded out weakly to first baseman Eric Hosmer. Here was the scene before contact.

Oops, sorry. Wrong kind of contact. Let’s try that again.

There we go.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam banter about the changing structure of front offices, then discuss what former players are saying about the brawl between Jonathan Papelbon and Bryce Harper.

Other teams are clinching divisions, and Nationals players are fighting one another. Not that players on good teams haven’t fought, and not that the Nationals’ incident was in some way unique, but this isn’t how it was supposed to go. A few days ago, the Nationals were mathematically eliminated from winning the division, and in reality it feels like it’s been even longer. They haven’t been within three games of the Mets since August 11. They’re currently behind by 9.5, and only the AL Central has a bigger gap between first and second place — by a half-game. It’s not an exaggeration to say the Nationals are feeling pretty embarrassed.

This is all review to you, but it’s not like the Nationals were simply the favorites. They didn’t come in with slightly better odds than any of their rivals. After the Max Scherzer acquisition, Bryce Harper talked about rings, and the only issue there was Harper was expressing what the rest of us thought. It looked like the Nationals would win the East in a landslide. Our projections figured as much. The PECOTA projections figured as much. The Clay Davenport projections figured as much. The whole entire media figured as much. And it wasn’t just about looking forward. Between 2012 – 2014, the Nationals won more games than any other team in baseball. They had 280 wins, and their closest division rival had 269. Those were the Braves, who were rebuilding. The Nationals looked good, and they didn’t have a serious threat.

Read the rest of this entry »

What the video here depicts is Cubs right-hander Jake Arrieta — not unlike an illusionist who’s been hired to participate in orientation week at an area liberal arts college — is Jake Arrieta performing a number of unlikely acts simultaneously. One of those acts isn’t impressive, per se, even if it’s somewhat rare — namely, that he’s a pitcher recording a hit of any sort. Data suggests that the league’s pitchers have produced a hit in fewer than 12% of their collective plate appearances this season. That’s roughly the rate at which Steve Nash missed a free throw when he played — an example which illustrates not only (a) the frequency with which pitchers produce base hits, but also (b) the most recent year in which the author followed NBA basketball with considerable interest.

A second, more improbable feature of this episode is how the sort of hit Arrieta’s recording is a home run. Pitchers, as a group this season, have produced only 25 of these — a figure which accounts for just 0.5% of all their collective plate appearances in 2015. Phrased alternatively, pitchers record a home run about once only every 200 plate appearances. Jake Arrieta, here, is recording one home run per every one of his plate appearances. Were he to continue at this pace, he’d hit 200 home runs. Jake Arrieta would be the best player ever.

Read the rest of this entry »

Paul Janish is your classic good-glove, no-hit infielder. In parts of seven seasons with the Reds, Braves, and currently the Baltimore Orioles, the 32-year-old defensive whiz has slashed .215/.282/.289. Outside of 2010, when he had a .723 OPS and hit five of his seven career home runs, in 200 at bats, Janish has been a non-entity at the dish.

Like most glove-men of his ilk, Janish hit well enough in the minors to reach the big leagues. His bat hasn’t translated to the highest level, but success is often a byproduct of extended opportunities, of which he’s received a paucity. It’s a chicken-and-egg dynamic: you need to hit to stay in the lineup, but you need to stay in the lineup to hit.

That isn’t to say Janish would be a productive hitter if given a chance to play every day. He might not even be a league-average hitter. Janish realizes that. Even so, he can’t help but wonder if he maybe could have been more than he is: a vacuum cleaner bouncing between Triple-A and a big-league bench, essentially because he’s failed to flourish in 1.234 sporatic MLB plate appearances.

——

Janish on getting labeled: “It’s been tough for me. From an early stage in my career, I was labeled as somebody who could play very well defensively, and if I could do X amount offensively, I could play in the big leagues. I kind of took that mindset, and it probably hurt me. I was a victim of circumstances in that respect. Read the rest of this entry »

Over the weekend, the Mets officially won the National League East, though thanks to the meltdown in Washington — which now includes Jonathan Papelbon publicly choking Bryce Harper, with his manager apparently doing an impression of an ostrich while it happened — the accomplishment has been somewhat overshadowed in the news cycle. And it’s pretty obvious that, with the Nats falling apart at seemingly every opportunity, the NL East was the easiest division in in the league to win; even after sweeping the Reds over the weekend, the Mets still have just the fourth best record in the NL.

But lost in the shuffle of the MVP getting assaulted on TV, along with the Cubs and Pirates getting us all tuned up for what might be the best Wild Card game we’ll ever see, the Mets were quietly setting up their playoff roster, and the results of that tune-up should scare the crap out of the other four playoff teams.

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Seattle | 22:10 ET
McCullers (114.2 IP, 88 xFIP-) vs. Elias (107.1 IP, 106 xFIP-)
There are probably reasons to continue following the outcomes of National League games over this final week of the season, but nearly zero of them concern the influence of those same games on what might be called the “postseason landscape.” Indeed, so far as postseason landscapes are concerned, the American League has developed a monopoly on them. The Western division, in particular, is not unlike a mountain road populated almost exclusively by scenic vistas of postseason landscapes.

Regard, the current playoff odds of the three relevant clubs, rendered into a handsome table:

The American League West, Currently

	Team	W	L	GB	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
1	Rangers	84	71	0.0	87.5	74.5	81.4%	12.7%	94.1%
2	Astros	82	74	2.5	85.4	76.6	8.9%	56.6%	65.5%
3	Angels	81	74	3.0	84.7	77.3	9.7%	25.0%	34.7%

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Television.

Read the rest of this entry »

There is no one single way to be good at baseball, which is part of why it’s so amazing. Just last week we peeked into the mind of a man with one of the lowest swing rates in baseball when we asked Joey Votto how he does it. And this week? Let’s ask Adrian Beltre.

“I’m probably the opposite,” Beltre laughed when he heard Votto’s name. “I’m thinking swing first and take second. I don’t have that discipline.”

It’s hard to argue with him, but he has been a top-ten all-time third baseman. “It’s probably not the way to do it,” he said with that trademarked smile, “but it has worked for me.”

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Texas at Houston | 14:10 ET
Perez (65.2 IP, 104 xFIP-) vs. Keuchel (219.0 IP, 68 xFIP-)
Houston’s win Saturday (box) — on the strength largely of a combined four home runs from their middle infield alone — allowed the club to reclaim a game in the standings from Texas in the AL West and, more importantly, to retain a half-game lead over Los Angeles for the second wild-card spot. With seven dates left on their schedule, however, basically nothing has been resolved wherein the Astros’ postseason future is concerned. According to the methodology used at the site, they possess a 60% probability of qualifying for the playoffs in some form and 32% probability of advancing to the divisional series. The suspense, not unlike a cave-aged gruyère or cave-aged some other sort of comestible, is delicious.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »