FanGraphs Baseball

“Until you step outside of it, you don’t realize how special it is,” Barry Zito said on the field in Oakland, nostalgia in his voice and touch of grey his hair. He was reminiscing about what it was like to have three homegrown young starters peaking at the same time, back when he joined Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder in dominating the American League.

The parallels in Cincinnati are not immediately obvious, nor are they perfectly similar. Anthony DeSclafani, Raisel Iglesias, and John Lamb probably won’t turn into the next Big Three, and they aren’t necessarily all homegrown in the stricter definition of the word.

And yet… standing there on that field, listening to Zito talk and thinking of writing this piece, a little dreaming was possible. Could those three young Reds be the backbone of a strong staff as soon as next year? Just look at them sitting there atop the rookie leaderboards.

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Pete Mackanin had the “interim” tag removed yesterday from his job title. The rebuilding Phillies extended the 64-year-old skipper’s contract through next season, with a club option for 2017. Mackanin has been at the helm since Ryne Sandberg unexpectedly stepped down in late June. The team has gone 30-46 under his leadership.

This is Mackanin’s first full-time managerial job at the big-league level. Prior to Philadelphia, he served in an interim capacity in Pittsburgh (2005) and Cincinnati (2007). He previously interviewed for openings in Houston, Boston and Chicago (Cubs), only to be bypassed.

Earlier this month, Mackanin sat down to share some of his thoughts on running a ball club. Our conversation was by no means comprehensive – we only touched on a few of his philosophies – but it does offer a snapshot of Mackanin’s mindset.

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Mackanin on playing the kids: “When I make out a lineup here, I don’t necessarily make out a lineup that I feel gives us the best chance to win. I have to play players we want to get a look at. It’s part of the job right now. With the team we have, we need to find out about players – we have to see what some of these guys are capable of. For instance, Darnell Sweeney joined us recently and I knew nothing about him. If I’m playing for a division title, I probably wouldn’t have put him in the lineup, but under these circumstances, he’s playing. And he’s made a good impression.”

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Toronto | 19:07 ET
Nova (75.2 IP, 118 xFIP-) vs. Stroman (12.0 IP, 100 xFIP-)
Over two starts and 12.0 innings, right-hander Marcus Stroman has recorded a strikeout rate of just 10.6%, which figure would represent the lowest such mark among all qualified pitchers by three-tenths of a percentage point (just behind teammate Mark Buehrle). Despite that, he’s also produced a league-average expected fielding-independent (xFIP) mark over those same two appearances. The uncomplicated, but still noteworthy, explanation: a ground-ball rate (68.4%) that would rank first among all qualifiers. What Stroman has done, in other words, is to compensate for one negative extreme by means of a positive one — like a profoundly ugly person who develops a strong sense of humor or a weblogger who, lacking facility with the language, develops the ability to manufacture GIFs of Marcus Stroman.

Apropos of nothing else, here’s footage of Stroman from his last start, throwing a fastball with considerable arm-side run:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

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Just the other day, Johnny Cueto turned in his first good start in over a month. Though the Royals have been in position to coast to the playoffs for weeks, seeing Cueto actually get batters out came as a tremendous relief, an indication that the ace is getting back to being an ace with October around the bend. Maybe just as interesting as what Cueto did on the field were conversations that took place off of it. As Andy McCullough wrote, Cueto felt like he needed to express something about Salvador Perez.

Part of his trouble, Cueto explained to the team, was he tries to throw exactly toward the catcher’s glove. Perez often set the target high in the zone, intending to lower his mitt with the pitch. But the optics challenged Cueto, which may have led to him spinning a series of cutters and change-ups at the waist of opposing hitters in recent weeks.

This post will consist of observations, and nothing more. I want to lay that out for you now. Cueto wanted his catcher to behave a little differently behind the plate, and though that’s a difficult thing to actually analyze, it grabbed my attention because it’s an unusual thing to hear. So I’m drawn to trying to explore this. Feel free to explore with me, or alternatively remain in the comforts of home. Explorers frequently die.

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Episode 597
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he’s compelled by the host to belabor a point.

This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 45 min play time.)

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Ben and Sam banter about the Brewers’ hiring of David Stearns, then talk about why timing is everything when it comes to tags, interim managers and Weezer and Wes Anderson.

While some people take for granted the ability to comprehend and decode signifiers of nonverbal communication, there’s a not insubstantial segment of the population who, for any numbers of reasons, lack those particular skills. The purpose of this post at FanGraphs.com is to provide an example of how a human might exhibit intense pleasure by means only of physical cues.

What one finds here is footage of Toronto right-hander Liam Hendriks from like five minutes ago, striking out Yankees batter Alex Rodriguez in an important moment during tonight’s game between the two relevant clubs. Hendriks, relieved to have escaped a perilous situation, first pumps his fists and then straightens out his left leg as though he were about to embark upon a sort of inspired triumphal march. Whatever the physiognomic antecedents for such a gesture, the meaning is clear: Hendriks is pleased. Specifically, he’s experiencing the sort of pleasure one feels by means of averting a more disagreeable outcome.

For further study, here’s the most relevant portion of the footage slowed down to 1/8th speed:

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The Mets have probably had the easiest schedule in baseball. That’s not to take anything away from them — it’s not their fault, and the Nationals have faced pretty much the same slate. It’s just a fact. Things have conspired to make the Mets’ schedule fairly soft. One notices, if you dig in, the Mets have really taken advantage of this. Against teams under .500, they’ve won 67% of their games. Against teams at least .500, they’ve won just 41% of their games. Against the Phillies, the Mets have gone 14-2; against the Pirates and Cubs, they’re 0-13. Their difference in record by opponent quality is the biggest in the game, edging out the Orioles and the Dodgers.

At the other end of the extreme, you find the Blue Jays. The Mets have mostly beaten up on bad teams. The Blue Jays have beaten everyone, but especially the above-average teams. Against teams under .500, they’ve won 53% of their games. Against teams at least .500, they’ve won 63% of their games. Their difference in record by opponent quality is the biggest in the game, in the other direction. They beat out the A’s and the Tigers.

With the playoffs looming, it’s easy to speculate. Once October rolls around, only good teams are left. It seems like the team that’s been better against good teams should stand a better chance. Does this mean anything for the Blue Jays and Mets? Below, I can provide not necessarily the answer, but certainly an answer.

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