FanGraphs Baseball

Michael Conforto got to the big leagues in a hurry; the 10th overall pick in last year’s draft is already wearing a New York Mets uniform. It fits comfortably. The 22-year-old Oregon State product is hitting a stylish .292/.375/.531, with five long balls, in 112 plate appearances.

Conforto flew through the system this summer, punishing pitchers at two levels before being promoted directly from Double-A. Hoopla accompanied his arrival and he wasted little time justifying the buzz. In his second game, the left-handed-hitting outfielder stroked four hits, including a pair of doubles. He did so with access to data never before at his disposal.

“When I came up, I wanted to use all of it,” Coforto told me on Wednesday. “I wanted to see the heat charts of pitchers, and the percentages of pitches they use in certain counts and with runners on base. Everything. I tried to digest all of the information, but it’s tough to put all of those things into your head and still hit.”

Veteran teammates cautioned the youngster to keep it simple, telling him “You didn’t have those things in the minor leagues and you still hit.” He heeded their advice, but not to the point of eschewing all available data. Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Minnesota at Houston | 19:10 ET
Santana (65.0 IP, 120 xFIP-) vs. McCullers (89.2 IP, 88 xFIP-)
The abstract concept of Decency requires one, somehow finding him- or herself newly in receipt of a time machine, to employ that time machine to the end of traveling back to late-19th century Austria-Hungary and duly offing an infant Adolf Hitler. Following a similar course of action for child Pol Pot and child Stalin might also be regarded as good form. After the most notable of murderous tyrants have been treated thusly, however, one might also consider returning to April 4th of this year and explaining to the people that September 5th’s Twins-Astros game would have some relevance to the postseason landscape. Then, finally — after being derided openly by the public — capture Napoleon from a battlefield and introduce him to a modern water park in California.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Television.

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Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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Earlier today, Buster Olney noted on Twitter that the Braves are now pulling up the rear in terms of run differential:

The Braves surpassed the Phillies for the worst run differential in the majors — ATL now -164, PHI -163.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) September 4, 2015

It got me to thinking — a dangerous pastime, I know — that it must be rare that two teams in the same division suck this much at the same time. Turns out, there’s something to that notion. Over at ESPN, we can easily find the run differentials back to 2002. Let’s take a look. Teams in bold are/were in the same division:

Teams With -150 Run Differential Or Worse, 2002-2015

Year	Team 1	RD	Team 2	RD	Team 3	RD	Team 4	RD	Team 5	RD
2015	PHI	-163	ATL	-164
2014
2013	MIN	-174	HOU	-238
2012	CLE	-178	HOU	-211
2011	BAL	-152	MIN	-185	HOU	-181
2010	BAL	-172	KC	-169	SEA	-185	PIT	-279
2009	KC	-156	WAS	-164
2008	WAS	-184
2007	TB	-162
2006	TB	-167	KC	-214
2005	TB	-186	KC	-233	ARI	-160
2004	KC	-185	CIN	-157	ARI	-284
2003	DET	-337	MIL	-159	CIN	-191	SD	-160
2002	TB	-245	KC	-154	DET	-289	MIL	-194	SD	-153

SOURCE: ESPN – http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/sort/pointdifferential/season/2002

A couple of things to note. First, last season was pretty cool, because no one was super awful. That doesn’t happen all that often. But two teams being this bad at the same time in the same division hasn’t happened since 2003. Brewers fans will remember 2003 as the year before Ben Sheets was awesome. Reds fans will remember 2003 as the year when Ken Griffey Jr. was awesome but frequently injured. Well, I guess that was most years Griffey was in Cincy. In any case, things weren’t pretty in either city. Adam Dunn rankled old school devotees with a .215 batting average, Wayne Franklin started 34 games and (I’m just guessing here) a lot of brain cells were murdered with alcohol.

Things haven’t been much better in Atlanta and Philly this season. They’re the first two teams to be this bad in the same division in over a decade. That’s rare. But at least they can take comfort in a couple of things. First, they’re not the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked — do you see that 2003 Tigers run differential? Woof! Second, at least they know that they are not alone. And that’s something. After all, misery needs company.

A home run is generally the result of a one-on-one battle between pitcher and hitter. A pitcher throws the ball, the batter hits it, and all the other players are more or less observers as the ball sails out of the park. Weather and park factors play a role in whether the ball leaves the yard. An outfielder might give chase. Then teammates show elation or disgust depending on the side of the battle where they are aligned. An inside-the-park home run is not like those other home runs. An inside-the-park home run needs this:

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The Mets closer has a new pitch, and it is fantastic. A 95 mph split-finger fastball is already superlative by name, but when you drill down into the arsenal of Jeurys Familia, it starts to look unique… and unfair.

But first we must appreciate the pitch in all its GIF glory.

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Ben and Sam banter about the Mets, Matt Harvey, and Scott Boras, then answer listener emails about pitcher stuff, park effects, permanent shifts, a magic Jonny Gomes, playoff seeding, and much more.

The Tigers selected right-hander Beau Burrows, one of the hardest throwing prep arms in the class, out of Weatherford High School in Texas with the 22nd-overall pick a few months ago. After quickly signing for just over slot value ($2.1 million), Burrows was assigned to the Tigers’ Rookie-league affiliate in the Gulf Coast League. The 18-year-old right-hander put together an impressive professional debut, with above-average numbers but, more importantly, Burrows’ pre-draft stuff and command were present and he showed the aptitude to adjust to pro instruction. I observed two of Burrows’ starts, on August 13 and August 27.

Physical Description
Generously listed at 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds, Burrows is likely closer to an even six-feet tall and has a mature build for his age. There’s solid strength in Burrows’ upper body and core. His lower half is exceptionally strong with fairly thick tree trunk legs; there’s minimal physical projection remaining. That being said, Burrows’ frame already resembles that of a potential innings eater.

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Just in case, let’s get this out of the way early: Kevin Kiermaier is the Rays’ center fielder. You probably already knew that, but you can never be too safe. Kiermaier is considered by everyone to be something of a defensive whiz. They say you’re supposed to open with a joke. Here’s a funny picture that proves even a defensive whiz can end up in a humiliating screenshot:

There’s a perfectly good explanation for what happened that relieves Kiermaier of pretty much all blame, but it’s more fun if you don’t know. Look at that guy! What a silly person.

Realistically, for the hitter, it’s probably a good thing that what happened happened. Spoiler alert: By rule, the hitter was awarded a home run. Had a physical structure not interrupted the flight of the baseball, there’s a decent chance Kevin Kiermaier would have, a few seconds later.

Major League Baseball fans were first introduced to Kiermaier late in 2013, when the Rays called him up for tiebreaker game 163, and the AL Wild Card Game. Kiermaier wasn’t promoted to serve as some sort of dangerous slugger off the bench. Nor was he around to be a potential pinch runner. Kiermaier was brought up specifically for his outfield defense. The Rays knew it was a little crazy, but they thought Kiermaier was the best defensive outfielder in the organization, so it wasn’t hard to talk themselves into it. Kiermaier played an inning in the first game. He played two in the second. That was it. Over the winter, Baseball America called Kiermaier the No. 10 prospect in the system.

Some prospects go away. Some hype proves to be unjustified. I don’t think it would’ve been a shock had Kiermaier never shown up again, or had he been limited to a bench role. But he wound up playing 108 games last year as a rookie, and he’s already close to 130 as a sophomore. Kiermaier’s bat has developed enough for him to play nearly every day. And because he’s played so often, we’ve seen ample evidence of his defensive skill. The Rays, back then, were on to something. I’m obligated to share some defensive highlights. The hardest thing is picking.

Read the rest on Just A Bit Outside.

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