FanGraphs Baseball

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Detroit | 19:08 ET
Salazar (61.2 IP, 68 xFIP-) vs. Price (83.1 IP, 96 xFIP-)
The reader might regard it as a sort of minor injustice — or at least passing curiosity — that accomplished and conspicuously talented Detroit left-hander David Price receives merely an average rating here (i.e. NERD score of 5) by the author’s fallible methodology for determining the aesthetic value of, in this case, pitchers. Indeed, closer examination of the matter reveals that Price has actually recorded an expected FIP, swinging-strike rate, overall strike rate, and average fastball velocity all superior to the league-average starter’s mark — by a full standard deviation, in the three latter cases. Peculiar to Price, however, is the pace at which he works: on average, he’s recorded 25.7 seconds between pitches, the absolutely highest figure among qualifiers. To place that figure into context, consider the bag of Newman’s Own microwave popcorn currently residing in the author’s cabinet. On average, such a comestible requires roughly three minutes to prepare. Over such an interval, Price would throw almost exactly seven pitches. An average starter, meanwhile, would be halfway to throwing his ninth pitch. As for Mark Buehrle, given his average pace of 16.0 seconds, when that Newman’s Own popcorn is ready, he would just have received the ball back from the catcher after having delivered his 11th pitch.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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Major League Baseball has seen its fair share of television-related litigation over the last few years. On Thursday, there were significant developments in two of these lawsuits.

First, the legal proceedings surrounding the failed CSN-Houston regional sports network took a new turn when the bankrupt station filed suit against Comcast, accusing the cable provider of a variety of misdeeds. If successful, the case could potentially allow the Houston Astros and the National Basketball Association’s Houston Rockets – the two primary owners of the defunct station – to recover hundreds of millions of dollars in damages.

Meanwhile, the long-running Garber lawsuit challenging MLB’s television blackout and pay-per-view package policies took an interesting turn as well, when the parties in a companion case challenging the National Hockey League’s analogous TV policies reached a tentative settlement. Although this settlement does not directly affect the suit against MLB, the deal nevertheless has potential implications for the Garber case.

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You know who’s bad? The Phillies! They’re the kind of bad that knows they’re bad, so they’re looking to sell off some pieces. Everyone saw this coming. Even them. You know who’s been a different sort of bad, the kind of bad that still wants to be good? The Mariners! The Mariners refuse to give up; it makes sense they could be a buyer. This all brings us to the rumor that’s spiraling out of control at the moment on the web, courtesy of Bob Dutton:

The Mariners inquired into the availability of Philadelphia outfielder Ben Revere, as first reported by CSNPhilly.com, but talks quickly stalled when the Phillies asked for either Taijuan Walker or James Paxton in return.

You recognize that as a pretty silly trade rumor. So has everyone else on the Internet, which means it’s been another opportunity to make fun of the Phillies and Ruben Amaro. It’s not that Revere doesn’t have his uses — it’s that, yeah, you don’t pay $20 for a box of Ritz crackers, unless you do only have $20, and literally the only sustenance available is a box of Ritz crackers. This is a funny thing to read. But, how ought you move forward when you see a thing like this? I have a two-step suggestion.

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To the extent that all human endeavor is futile, the author’s attempt this past Tuesday to identify a small collection of amateur prospects likely to develop into better professionals than their draft slots might otherwise suggest — this endeavor was also futile. Perhaps even moreso, actually, owing to how — with the exception of having once had kind words, apparently, for the minor-league version of Chris Heston — the author’s credentials in this (and every) field are minimal.

Regardless of its worth (or lack thereof) I did produce a document featuring certain collegiates who possess profiles similar to players in the past (Matt Carpenter, Ben Zobrist) who’ve parlayed a combination of above-average baseball skills and below-average physical tools into successful careers. Nine of the ten players included in that post were selected by major-league clubs this week in the draft, and what follows represents a record of which teams signed which of those prospects in which rounds — with a view, I suppose, towards beginning to monitor their progress through affiliated baseball.

Eric Cheray, C/2B, Missouri St. (Sr) (Profile)
Club: N/A   Round: N/A

Profile in Brief
Senior hitter with excellent plate discipline, perhaps less excellent infield defense. Selected in the 17th round by Oakland last year; undrafted, curiously, this one.

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I think we’ve established by now that it’s the year of Bryce Harper. He’s the current major-league leader in Wins Above Replacement, and in case you’re not a real big fan of WAR, Harper’s also the leader in wRC+, and wOBA, and slugging percentage. This is the year we’ve been waiting for, and this is the year that makes it exponentially less silly to draw comparisons between Harper and Mike Trout. This healthy version of Harper has climbed within sight of his ceiling, and he’s still 22 years old. He’s younger than Kris Bryant, Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, and Noah Syndergaard. Harper-is-young facts are the oldest of hats, but then, they’re almost as old as Bryce Harper, who is young.

Harper’s been written about. We’ve all taken our turns, digging into his breakout that at this point appears undeniable. No one would dare pass up an opportunity to get into detail on baseball’s newest emerging superstar, so by now you should consider yourself mostly informed. Yet now I feel like there’s more that needs to be added. Since getting hot, Harper hasn’t really cooled off. He has, however, changed what he’s been doing. You could say he’s performed more like himself.

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Ben and Sam banter about Bryce Harper and talk about the unusual number of top prospects making the majors early this season.

The prospects just keep on coming for the Houston Astros this year. First, it was Preston Tucker, who’s stepped in to produce a 110 wRC+ as the team’s left fielder. Then, along came Lance McCullers, who’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball over his first month in the majors. Another came on Monday,when Houston summoned Carlos Correa — arguably the best prospect left in the minors. Then, last night, the Astros graduated yet another impact prospect to the majors in Vincent Velasquez. The 23-year-old tossed five scoreless innings in his debut, striking out five while walking four.

Heading into the year, very few anticipated that Velasquez would make it to Houston in 2015, as he had zero experience above A-ball. He pitched reasonably well in High-A Lancaster last year, posting a 3.74 ERA and 3.96 FIP, but a groin injury limited him to just 51 innings of work. At year’s end, he reported to the Arizona Fall League, where he posted an unsightly 6.59 ERA before he was shut down with a lat strain. Velasquez looked as though he was still at least a year away from the show.

But something seemed to click for Velasquez between this year and last. After sitting out the first few weeks of the year recovering from his lat injury, the 23-year-old hit the ground running in Double-A Corpus Christi. In five starts, he pitched to a sparkling 1.37 ERA and 2.13 FIP on the strength of a 37% strikeout rate. Yes, that’s a small sample, but those numbers are about as good as it gets.

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With the draft officially in the books, we are now officially entering MLB’s trade season. Most teams prefer to take the first couple of months to evaluate what they have at the big league level, allocating their time and scouting resources to lining up their draft boards rather than considering significant trades in April and May. Once the draft ends, though, focus shifts to the 2015 roster, and teams begin to make decisions about their direction for the rest of the season.

In this age of parity, driven in part by the existence of the Wild Card play-in game, most teams now try to make a run at the postseason, or at the least, don’t surrender their chances unless they are left with no choice. And this year, the stars are aligning to create perhaps the most extreme seller’s market we’ve seen in a very long time.

In the American League, every single team still has a puncher’s chance at the postseason. The spread in the standings from the top spot (KC, .596 Win%) to the 14th spot (BOS, .450 Win%) is only 8.5 games, and while the A’s would normally be assumed to be dead in the water with a .393 winning percentage, their BaseRuns Win% is .556, 8th best in baseball; this is not a team that is going to continue losing six out of ten games going forward. They’ve probably dug themselves too large of a hole to climb out of, but it wouldn’t be that surprising to see them win 15 of 20 and climb right back into the AL West race.

The AL is the land of mediocrity, with no really great or terrible teams, and expected regression pushing things even more into the middle over the last few months. At least one or two teams will break out of this pack and win 90 games, but it’s pretty reasonable to think that any of these divisions could be won by a team that ends up with fewer than 90 wins. And along with two Wild Card berths serving as a fall-back plan, that possibility makes it unlikely that any non-Oakland AL teams decide to fold up their tents and move talent for prospects this summer.

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It’s only been 35 major-league plate appearances, but Joey Gallo has already made quite the impression. The ball doesn’t fly off the bat any faster than it does off his, and he’s also second in the big leagues in three-true-outcome percentage (K%+BB%+HR%) — he’s a slugger’s slugger.

He’s also second in the big leagues in strikeout rate. “I’ve tried to cut down on them,” Gallo sighed when I asked. “I’ve tried. I promise.”

So we talked about the strikeouts, and what he can do about them, and why they have happened, and why they will continue to happen.

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