What Happened to All Those Stolen Bases?

Texas Rangers center fielder Leody Taveras steals second base against Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve in the third inning during Game 2 of the ALCS at Minute Maid Park.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The 2023 regular season looked a bit different from previous years. MLB made some significant rule changes back in the spring — adding a pitch clock, limiting defensive shifts and pickoff attempts, and larger bases among them — and those changes, for the most part, had their intended effects. The pitch clock helped shorten the average nine-inning game by nearly half an hour; scoring increased by more than a half a run per game; and with pitchers now under the gun to deliver to the plate and limited in their ability to check on the running game, and with a slightly larger target 90 feet away, baserunners became historically aggressive. Stolen bases jumped from 0.51 per team per game in 2022 to 0.72 in ’23, a more than 40% increase and the highest average per team game since 1997, when there were also about twice as many baserunners caught stealing as there were in 2023. Never in the more than 100 years of available data have teams averaged as many as 0.72 steals per game and as few as 2023’s 0.18 caught per game.

But so far in October, stolen bases have been a relative non-factor, with teams averaging just 0.50 per game in the postseason, lower than last year’s regular-season rate. It’s still higher than last postseason’s rate of 0.43, but well within the pre-rule change range of norms. Read the rest of this entry »


The Road to the World Series Isn’t Paved With Intentional Walks

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

I don’t hate intentional walks the way some people do. Sure, it’s disappointing when a star player doesn’t get a chance to swing in a potentially game-altering situation. It’s especially unfortunate when that star player is targeted for an intentional walk because he lacks protection in the lineup; it sucks that José Ramírez and Shohei Ohtani combined for as many intentional walks as the next four hitters on the leaderboard put together.

That being said, anticlimactic moments are a necessary evil. You can’t have the highs without the lows. No one (besides Kevin Cash) wants to see Corey Seager sent to first with a runner in scoring position, only for Zach Eflin to strike out Robbie Grossman and end the threat. Yet, when the Orioles intentionally walked Seager a few days later, only for Mitch Garver and Adolis García to follow up with a double and a home run, breaking the game open and essentially putting the ALDS out of reach, it was absolutely thrilling. That’s precisely why I’ve always had a soft spot for intentional walks. When a great hitter like Freddie Freeman or Aaron Judge gets a free pass, I get to root for one of his teammates to be the hero and punish the opposing manager for his cowardice.

My passion for intentional walks burns all the brighter in October. The postseason can bring out excessive management from even the most level-headed skippers, and that includes issuing more intentional walks. Perhaps you recall last year when Scott Servais called for Yordan Alvarez to take first with the base already occupied, moving a runner up to second and into scoring position? Or how about when A.J. Hinch (then with the Astros) issued an intentional walk in the World Series after avoiding the strategy entirely all season? If you don’t remember, then you can thank Ben Clemens for writing about each instance in detail. Read the rest of this entry »


Houston Routs Texas in Game 4 to Tie ALCS at Two Games Apiece

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

For the second night in a row, Houston’s bats came alive, powering the Astros to a 10-3 win in Game 4. The outcome of the game was only briefly in doubt, and by the middle innings, the Rangers had the mop-up crew on the mound to finish things off. With the series now tied at two games, the Astros have at least guaranteed that if they have to make a last stand in the ALCS, it will come back home.

Just over a day ago, the Rangers and their fans had to feel pretty good about where they stood: up two games to none, with Max Scherzer returning to start at home. ZiPS had the series at that point as nearly 80-20 in favor of Texas. The computer wasn’t working against consensus here; the simple truth of the matter is that having to win four of five games against any team is quite tricky. But the latest chapter of the Mad Max saga turned out to be a forgettable direct-to-DVD release, and Thursday night’s game was enough to put the Rangers back at square one in the ALCS.

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Managers, Umpires, and Executives Get Their Hall of Fame Shot Via 2024 Contemporary Baseball Ballot

Joe West
Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

One of the more positive outcomes of the Hall of Fame’s latest round of restructuring its Era Committees in 2022 was the creation of a ballot limited to managers, umpires, and executives, removing them from directly competing with players for votes and positioning them within a triennial election cycle. On Thursday, the Hall unveiled its slate of eight candidates for the 2024 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee Managers/Executives/Umpires ballot, dedicated to candidates in those categories who made their greatest impact from 1980 to the present. The candidates will be voted upon at the Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tennessee on December 3, with the results announced live at 7:30 p.m. ET on MLB Network’s MLB Tonight.

The eight-member ballot includes four managers, two executives, and two umpires. Five of the eight are first-time candidates, and seven of the eight are still alive:

2024 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee Managers/Executives/Umpires ballot
Candidate Category Most Recent Ballot Appearance
Cito Gaston Manager None (1st time)
Davey Johnson Manager 2019 Today’s Game Era Committee
Jim Leyland Manager None (1st time)
Lou Piniella Manager 2019 Today’s Game Era Committee
Ed Montague Umpire None (1st time)
Joe West Umpire None (1st time)
Hank Peters* Executive None (1st time)
Bill White Executive 2010 Veterans Committee, Executives/Pioneers
* = deceased

While these candidates aren’t entirely without controversy — West in particular — weighty topics such as segregation and performance-enhancing drugs won’t dominate the discussions, which comes as a welcome relief. To be eligible for inclusion, managers and umpires need to have compiled 10 or more major league seasons and been retired for at least five years, though candidates 65 years or older are eligible six months following retirement. Executives need to have been retired for at least five years, though active executives 70 years or older are eligible “regardless of the position they hold in an organization and regardless of whether their body of work has been completed,” according to the Hall’s rules. Read the rest of this entry »


Lovullo Pulls the Right Levers as Arizona Earns a Hard-Pfaadt Game 3 Win

Ketel Marte
Arizona Republic

With his team down two games to none in the NLCS and practically having been blown off the field by the Phillies on Tuesday night, Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo had his work cut out for him, particularly given that he had little alternative but to send rookie Brandon Pfaadt, he of the 5.72 ERA and 5.18 FIP, to the Chase Field mound for a must-win game. But from the reconfigured lineup to the decision to pull Pfaadt after he’d put up a string of zeroes, just about everything Lovullo set in motion paid off. In a nailbiter, the Diamondbacks won, 2–1, on Ketel Marte’s walk-off single off Craig Kimbrel.

One couldn’t have blamed the Diamondbacks for entering this game in shell shock. Philadelphia put up five runs on ace Zac Gallen in Game 1 before Arizona closed the gap for a respectable 5–3 loss, then wore down Merrill Kelly and teed off on the soft underbelly of the Diamondbacks’ bullpen for a 10–0 rout in Game 2. Beyond the combined 15–3 score, the Phillies out-homered the Diamondbacks, 6–1 — all solo shots but mostly emphatic ones, with four of the six projected at 420 feet or more. They out-hit them convincingly, combining for a .313/.400/.688 line against Arizona’s .129/.167/.194 mark. Phillies pitchers collected 23 strikeouts against only three walks; the Diamondbacks struck out just 10 and walked nine.

With Phillies manager Rob Thomson tabbing lefty Ranger Suárez for the start, Lovullo switched things up, flip-flopping Marte and Corbin Carroll atop the lineup — a sensible move, given that the former posted for a 146 wRC+ against lefties, the latter just a 96. Marte responded by going 3-for-5 with the game-winning hit. Lovullo also moved slugging catcher Gabriel Moreno, another lefty-masher (139 wRC+ against) from fifth to third and started Emmanuel Rivera (92 wRC+ against lefties) at third base, put Evan Longoria at DH, and gave right field to Tommy Pham, who hadn’t played with a glove on since September 22 due to a bout of turf toe. With Pham in right, Carroll moved to center, with Alek Thomas (who hit for just a 12 wRC+ against lefties) on the bench; when Pham singled to start the seventh inning, Thomas pinch-ran and scored the game-tying run. Read the rest of this entry »


Making Quick Adjustments Comes Naturally to Evan Carter

Evan Carter Cristian Javier
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

When he is right, Cristian Javier is among one of the most difficult pitchers to face in baseball. And his four-seam fastball is a true unicorn: low release point, good ride, flat horizontal approach angle, and good command. While he may have not been dominant in ALCS Game 3, his five called strikes, seven whiffs, and 11 foul balls are enough to say that he had good feel for the pitch. That showed against Evan Carter.

Carter has been a force for the Rangers in these playoffs, and his play earned him a move up to the third spot in the lineup against Javier. But the Astros righty had no issues in their first two matchups of the night, striking him out both times. In the first at-bat, Javier gave Carter a steady dose of heaters, and while the rookie was able to work his way to a 3–2 count, Javier switched up locations on him and dotted a four-seamer on the low and away corner:

You can tell from Carter’s posture and swing that he was fully prepared to stay upright so he could get on top of a high heater. The previous five pitches were at or above the top of the zone, and the best he had done was to foul one off. Javier had no reason to go away from the plan, so he didn’t; Martín Maldonado set up inside to go back to the high heater. But while Javier missed his spot, Carter was fully locked in at the top of the zone, making the pitch a surprise; his body adjustment to get to the low ball happened too late, and he whiffed through it. Sometimes misses go in your favor. Read the rest of this entry »


Outpitching Peripherals in the Postseason

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

This postseason, pitchers have allowed a .311 wOBA and a 3.74 ERA, down from .318 and 4.33 during the regular season. That part’s not terribly surprising. Since the start of the Wild Card era in 1995, the league’s postseason ERA is 3.85, nearly half a run below the regular season ERA of 4.29. The thing that caught my eye was that this year’s .311 wOBA is 21 points lower than its .332 xwOBA. In fact, for as long as we’ve been calculating xwOBA, wOBA has underperformed it in the playoffs:

Postseason wOBA and xwOBA
Year wOBA xwOBA Difference
2015 .292 .311 -19
2016 .285 .305 -20
2017 .301 .310 -09
2018 .288 .301 -13
2019 .297 .317 -20
2020 .315 .333 -18
2021 .306 .315 -09
2022 .282 .289 -07
2023 .311 .332 -21
Total .298 .313 -15
SOURCE: Baseball Savant

This year’s gap is the largest, but it’s hardly an outlier. There’s a big gap between ERA and FIP during the postseason. Pitchers have outperformed their FIP 24 times in the last 29 postseasons. Over that period, they’ve run an ERA of 3.85 and a FIP of 4.15. They’re performing better overall, but they’re also outpitching their FIP to the tune of .3 runs per game. I started thinking about the causes that might explain these discrepancies, and I realized that our new postseason leaderboards would allow us to break them down in some cool new ways. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Cleveland Guardians – Baseball Technology Fellow

Baseball Technology Fellow

Primary Purpose
The Cleveland Guardians Fellowship program is designed to accelerate the pace of development and impact for people interested in working for our organization. Fellowship roles are focused on solving complex challenges, which involve developing new approaches, tools, and techniques to meaningfully drive the organization forward. Fellows will be exposed to work across multiple departments and have access to and be encouraged to use a suite of internal, proprietary resources.

We are seeking Fellows to join our Baseball Technology department. Each Fellow will work full-time with one of our minor league affiliates and report to the Baseball Technology, Player Development, and Baseball Operations departments. Fellows will be expected to manage the collection of multiple data streams and operate as a resource for both coaches and players. This position will include travel to away games.

The ideal candidate will be curious, creative, open-minded, and excited to work in a collaborative environment. The candidate will be able to clearly communicate with others, build strong relationships, and have the ability to present complex topics to a wide range of audiences. They will take the initiative to perform research in the areas of their choosing that advance the Guardians’ player development procedures and philosophies.

Essential Duties & Responsibilities
Baseball Technology:

  • Operate bat/ball tracking technology and other sports science technology.
  • Manage pre-game, in-game, and post-game video process.
  • Manage the corresponding data and video collection process and assist with interpretation & distribution.
  • Assist the Information Systems team with Baseball Technology-related troubleshooting and support.

Coaching Staff Support:

  • Support Minor League field staff with Advance Scouting Process.
  • Assist affiliate staff with various administrative tasks (i.e. daily scheduling, team travel).
  • Assist Minor League field staff with pre-game activities.

Baseball Development and Analysis:

  • Collaborate with coaching staff, Player Development, and Baseball Operations to monitor player goals and player progress.
  • Perform ad hoc research and analysis, both at the request of staff and independently.
  • Communicate findings and insights to Minor League Coaches, Players, and Player Development and Baseball Operations Departments.

Education & Experience Requirements and Preference

  • Bachelor’s degree or prior professional experience.
  • Demonstrated passion for at least one: baseball technology, scouting, baseball analytics, sports science, hitting or pitching analysis and/or biomechanics, strength and conditioning, motor learning, or other baseball/softball-related field.

Skills:

  • Organization: Ability to create, maintain, and execute a schedule with precision and agility.
  • Work Ethic: A relentless drive to collect more and better information.
  • Passion: Demonstrate a clear passion for the game, teammates, the organization, and learning.
  • Resourcefulness: Utilize organizational resources to develop and understand organizational philosophies.
  • Strategic Thinking: Employ a problem-solving mindset and strategic thinking.
  • Time Management: Ability to prioritize in a fast-paced environment.
  • Collaboration: Partner with staff and players and exhibit excellent written and verbal communication skills.

Preferred Experience:
While we are looking for a variety of diverse skill sets for this role, we know that past Fellows who have thrived in this role possessed certain skills that are best aligned with the game of baseball. If you have demonstrated experience with any of the following, you may be better positioned to thrive in this role.

  • Conversational Spanish or better a plus.
  • Experience with video editing software (i.e. Adobe Premier) a plus.
  • Experience with SQL and statistical software (i.e. R, Python, Stata, SAS) a plus.
  • Experience in troubleshooting network, computer, and other device connectivity issues a plus.
  • Proficiency with Microsoft Office.
  • Working knowledge of advanced baseball statistics and publicly available research.

Standard Requirements

  • Represents the Cleveland Guardians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the public.
  • Reads, speaks, comprehends, and communicates English effectively in all communications.
  • Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationships with teammates across departments.
  • Ability to always act according to the organizational values and service excellence.
  • Ability to work with diverse populations and have a demonstrated commitment to social justice.
  • Ability to walk, sit, or stand for an entire shift.
  • Ability to work extended days and hours, including holidays and weekends.
  • Ability to move throughout all areas and levels of the Ballpark.
  • Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment.
  • Occasional physical activity such as lifting and carrying boxes at least 25 lbs.

The above information is not a complete list of responsibilities, duties, and skills required for this position. No part in this job description restricts management’s right to assign additional responsibilities to this job at any time. 

The Cleveland Guardians are committed to developing and maintaining an environment that embraces all forms of diversity to enrich our core values, enhance our competitive position, strengthen our impact within our community, and foster a greater sense of belonging for our employees.

In this spirit, we know studies have shown that people from historically underserved groups – including women and people of color – are less likely to apply for jobs unless they believe they meet every one of the qualifications as described in a job description. We are most interested in finding the best candidate for the job and understand that the candidate may bring certain skills and experiences to the role that are not listed above, but that would add tremendous value to our organization. We would encourage you to apply, even if you don’t believe you meet every one of our qualifications described.

About Us:
In Baseball Technology, our shared goal is to identify and develop diverse players and front-office teammates who contribute to our mission. By working together effectively and collaboratively, we create a family atmosphere that supports learning as we strive for excellence in everything we do. We believe that we will achieve our goals by making evidence-based decisions and creating environments that support our people and empower them to learn.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Cleveland Guardians.


Effectively Wild Episode 2074: Who Had it First?

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the lack of pitch-clock violations in the postseason, an on-field Phillies smooch, the Phillies’ 2-0 lead on the Diamondbacks in the NLCS, a pivotal offseason for the Brewers, how MLB newsbreakers differ from NBA newsbreakers, the rising percentage of pitchers who’ve had Tommy John surgery, and how different baseball would be if regular-season series worked like postseason series, followed by (1:30:50) a radio-play-style Future Blast from 2074.

Audio intro: Ted O., “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Daniel Leckie, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to FG clock violations
Link to MLBClockTracker on Twitter
Link to Phillies kiss tweet
Link to story on Yordan’s kisses
Link to FG post on Arizona’s bullpen
Link to Sheehan on lead changes
Link to drummer’s Phillies tweet
Link to “Jimmy Eat World” origin
Link to Neil Paine on the Phillies
Link to FG payrolls page
Link to story on Woodruff’s injury
Link to Arnold on Brewers decisions
Link to MLBTR on Woodruff
Link to Heyman on Counsell
Link to Brewers ballpark funding
Link to WaPo on Woj vs. Shams
Link to NY Mag on Shams
Link to The Arm
Link to Roegele’s TJ tweet
Link to Roegele’s TJ database
Link to Rick Wilber’s website
Link to Alan Smale’s website
Link to Future Blast wiki
Link to ʻOumuamua wiki

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 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com


Astros Get One Back, Foil Mad Max’s Return in 8–5 Game 3 Win

Yordan Alvarez Jose Altuve
Andrew Dieb-USA TODAY Sports

Max Scherzer hadn’t pitched in 36 days, but when a future Hall of Famer says he can go, it’s hard to say no. That’s the spot that the Rangers found themselves in, and up two games to none in the ALCS, they could afford a clunker if they had to. Unfortunately, that’s what they got. Scherzer surrendered five runs over four innings; Cristian Javier no-hit Texas into the fifth. Though Houston’s hurler didn’t remain unblemished, the Rangers couldn’t overcome their early deficit, and the Astros narrowed Texas’ series lead with an 8–5 win.

The first inning went innocently enough, though Scherzer allowed a pair of well-struck fly balls that hinted at the trouble to come. Ahead 0–2 on Yordan Alvarez to begin the second, the veteran went with a back-foot cutter that, well, hit Alvarez in the back foot. After punching out José Abreu, Scherzer walked Kyle Tucker on five pitches, then yielded a 104.8 mph frozen rope to Mauricio Dubón on a slider that hung up. Jeremy Peña popped out, and for a second, Scherzer seemed to be close to getting out of a bases-loaded jam. Instead, he spiked an 0–1 slider to no. 9 hitter Martín Maldonado, he of the 66 regular-season wRC+, to bring home Alvarez. On the very next pitch, Maldonado ripped a 101.1 mph single past third baseman Josh Jung, driving in two more:

Read the rest of this entry »