FanGraphs Baseball

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at Los Angeles NL | 16:05 ET
C. Anderson (23.1 IP, 93 xFIP-) vs. B. Anderson (19.2 IP, 100 xFIP-)
It would appear to be almost a certainty that a major-league pitcher named Anderson will record a win in this game; however, it really does only appear that way. What that claim ignores are those occasions on which a starter isn’t responsible for the decision. Indeed, one finds that, in 2014, pitchers were only assessed decisions on 3425 of the 4860 games they started. Using that precedent, one might more reasonably suggest that there’s approximately a 70% chance that a pitcher named Anderson will record a win today. This, of course, ignores any specific variables regarding the actual pitchers or teams participating. But those considerations — like most other considerations — are outside the purview of this brief post.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL.

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Like many broadcasters, Joe Siddall had a playing career before picking up a mic. Uniquely, he bridged the interim years as a batting practice pitcher for the team he rooted for growing up in Windsor, Ontario, Canada. Siddall now works alongside the legendary Jerry Howarth in the Toronto Blue Jays radio booth.

Windsor is across the river from Detroit, and the 47-year-old Siddall was a big Tigers fan. He attended a lot of games at old Tiger Stadium, and listened to Ernie Harwell and Paul Carey call many more. A lasting memory is being in the eighth grade and having his teacher confiscate his transistor radio. The future broadcaster was clandestinely attempting to listen to the game on opening day, in 1980.

Thirteen years later, Siddall was playing for the Expos. The first of his 24 big-league hits came in Montreal, against Frank Tanana, a former Tiger. His only home run came in 1998, wearing the uniform of his boyhood team.

“I hit it off the facade of the second deck, at Tiger Stadium,” recalled Siddall “The ball caromed back onto the field and Ken Griffey, Jr., who was playing center field, tossed it up into the stands. He had no idea it was my first career home run. The Tigers staff tried to get the baseball, but the fan didn’t want to give it up because Ken Griffey, Jr. had thrown it. After a bunch of negotiating, he finally did give it up.” Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Seattle at Houston | 19:10 ET
Walker (19.2 IP, 120 xFIP-) vs. McHugh (24.2 IP, 70 xFIP-)
By the certainly flawed metric devised by the author, no club has been more aesthetically pleasing/mostly effective than the Houston Astros. Despite having recorded the third-lowest average batter age over the first month of the season, Houston has produced a modestly above-average batting line and decidedly above-average marks — which is to say, z-scores greater than 1.0 relative to the league’s 30 teams — by the following measures: park-adjusted home-run rate, baserunning runs, and park-adjusted bullpen xFIP. Four Houston players have already posted a 1.0-plus WAR thus far this season: Jose Altuve (1.4 WAR), Jake Marisnick (1.3), Jed Lowrie (1.0), and tonight’s starter Collin McHugh (1.0).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Seattle Radio, Maybe.

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Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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Episode 557
Dayn Perry is a contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and the author of three books — one of them not very miserable. He’s also the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 4 min play time.)

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Milwaukee Brewers fans haven’t had much to get excited about this year. Their team’s 5-17 record is easily the worst in baseball, and with a BaseRuns differential of -45, it appears as though they’ve been about as bad as their record suggests. It’s unlikely the Brewers will continue to play this poorly, but it’s probably safe to say the they won’t be anywhere near the playoff race this fall. Our playoff odds calculator gives them a minuscule 1% of even making it into the Wild Card game.

The current iteration of the Brewers is pretty depressing — Adam Lind is literally their only player who’s hitting better than league-average. But despite their current struggles, Milwaukee has a few intriguing minor leaguers on the horizon, who represent beams of light for Brewers fans. One of those players is shortstop prospect Orlando Arcia. Kiley McDaniel deemed Arcia the Brewers best prospect over the winter, and the 20-year-old has lived up to that billing with a hot start to 2015.

Through 78 trips to the plate in Double-A Biloxi, Arcia’s hitting .409/.468/.545. This is obviously a very small sample of games, but still, a .409 batting average is pretty eye-popping. Arcia’s year-to-date numbers are almost certainly good enough to make us re-evaluate what we thought of him a month ago. Read the rest of this entry »

Of the pitchers expected to be selected in the first round of this year’s draft, Virginia lefthander Nate Kirby is one of the safer bets to remain a starter as a professional. But despite a clean profile, his limited upside restrains my enthusiasm as we head down the home stretch of the college baseball schedule.

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The Cubs are a running team, now. Wasn’t always that way. Wasn’t that way even one season ago. One season ago, the Cubs finished with just 65 stolen bases, seventh-fewest in the majors. This year, they already have 25, second-most in the majors. If you fold unsuccessful steals into the mix, last year the Cubs were the worst stealing team in baseball. So far this year, fourth-best. No one ever wins the World Series because of the running game, but improvements are improvements, and this is a legitimate change.

And, well, this year’s Cubs have a bunch of new players. They also have a new manager, so maybe it’s not the most surprising thing in the world that they’ve become more aggressive with their legs. Joe Maddon liked to put the game in motion in Tampa Bay, and in spring training with Chicago he made baserunning a priority. On the other hand, here’s Anthony Rizzo, also from spring training:

“We don’t steal much on this team anyway.”

Rizzo, perhaps, wasn’t yet used to playing with Dexter Fowler. Fowler’s already stolen six bags. That’s good enough to tie him for eighth in the majors. But let’s keep that figure in mind. As of this writing, 15 players have stolen at least six bases. That’s a somewhat arbitrary line, but I chose it for a reason. Here are the 15:

Over the winter, the Padres, Nationals, and Rays agreed on a big three-way trade that shipped Wil Myers to San Diego, Steven Souza and a bunch of other stuff to Tampa Bay, and a couple of prospects to Washington. Joe Ross was the only named prospect at the time of the deal, but the Nationals also received a PTBNL, who was quickly reported to be Trea Turner, the Padres first round selection from last June’s draft.

Because draft picks are not eligible to be traded for 12 months from their signing date, the Padres and Nationals are not allowed to confirm that Turner has indeed already been traded, and he remains in the Padres organization at this time. However, it’s public knowledge that Turner will be changing organizations mid-summer, creating an awkward situation where the Padres are stewarding another team’s asset. As I wrote after the trade was made and Turner was unofficially revealed as the PTBNL, this was a bad situation for all to be involved in, and likely required a rule change.

Well, as of today, that rule has officially been changed. An email has been sent to all 30 MLB teams regarding this adjustment, and reads as follows, as told to me by a source who got the email:

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