FanGraphs Baseball

As noted in Sunday’s column, Koji Uehara has thrown 24 pitches this season, and 21 of them have been splitters. Even for a two-game sample, that’s pretty extreme. Only one other pitcher – Red Sox teammate Edward Mujica (57.6%) – has thrown a splitter with more than 50% frequency in the early going. Last year’s leader was Chicago’s Zach Putnam, at 56.1%, while Uehara was right behind him at 47.5%.

The Boston closer has fanned four of the six batters he’s faced, so you can’t argue with the results. But it’s hard not to wonder where his fastball is, and whether he trusts it right now. Uehara is 40 years old and began the season on the disabled list due to a hamstring injury.

Pitching coach Juan Nieves told me Uehara is healthy and has “one of the best fastballs in the league; an invisible fastball.” He said he’s fine with that many splitters, and if Uehara “keeps putting up zeroes, he can use it as much as he wants.”

I asked Ryan Hanigan, who was behind the plate for both appearances, if he’s ever called such a high percentage of a particular breaking pitch. He said he hadn’t. I also asked if throwing almost exclusively splitters was the plan going into each of Uehara’s outings. He told me it wasn’t.

Uehara won’t continue to throw 87.5% splitters, but he’ll certainly feature it in the months to come. According to his catcher, it’s not only effective, it’s more than one pitch.

“He can throw it for a strike and he can throw more of an action pitch to get more sink,” said Hanigan. “He can play with it and let it run a little bit. He can do different things with it, at different speeds, and he’s got real good command of it. There will be times we’ll go with the heater more often, but I’ll call the splitter at any time.”

Over the past couple weeks, you might have noticed some of our advanced fielding data filtering into the system, as the scouts grading and categorizing each play go through their expert machinations. With two weeks of play in the books, and enough time for much of the data to come in (there is normally a slight delay), we can now look back on some of the highlights of the defensive portion of the game. Though the stats run a few days behind, we still have a lot to look at.

I’ve gone through each defensive position and pulled one or two of the best “remote” plays for each, giving us a veritable super cut of defensive gems from the early going. These are only the plays categorized as being converted into outs between 1-10% of the time. Though there could be some disagreement with elements of the classification for each play, there’s no doubt that these plays are among the best made since the start of the season. Let’s get to it!

Pitcher

A preface: obviously the pitcher position doesn’t have to make a lot of incredible defensive plays. Routine and sometimes awkward, yes, but not spectacular. That being said, there was one that made the cut:

Anthony DeSclafani, April 14th

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In the summer of 2005, the author of this post contracted at a Chicago area restaurant some manner of foodborne illness. The symptoms produced by same needn’t be explored in any depth here; to say, however, that I experienced roughly all the forms of “gastric distress” is sufficient. Nor is it the deepest throes of my illness that are relevant here, but rather the recovery process. Indeed, after about a week or so of turmoil, I returned to something like normal health. The only qualification: that I’d be compelled, for the better part of the next month, to survive on diet consisting strictly of starches, mashed and non-fibrous fruits, and (were I feeling particularly strong) baked, skinless chicken. These were foods which represented the least possible challenge to my sensitive digestive system.

What follows is the analytical equivalent of the aforementioned diet. It is designed not to examine in any depth — but rather to provide deserving coverage of — certain players who’ve made their major-league debuts this season. To say that it is both incomplete and haphazard is probably correct. To say, however, that it might be of some use to those readers who have exhausted themselves mentally by means of their other daily pursuits — this is also reasonable.

Below are five players whose debuts have been notable for one reason or another — where notable has been entirely at the discretion of the author. Accompanying each player are his season stats to date (denoted by Season), his Steamer rest-of-season projection (Steamer ROS), and his ZiPS rest-of-season projection (ZiPS ROS).

Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona (Profile)

Who he is: Right-hander in D-backs rotation.

Notable because: He was the seventh pick in the 2011 draft. Has exhibited excellent fastball and curveball as amateur and minor leaguer.

Earliest returns: Positive. In an unexpected way, though.

Bradley has never demonstrated particularly strong command, nor would his walk rate after two starts (12.8%) suggest that he’s changed in any substantial way so far as that’s concerned. Still, he’s produced better-than-average fielding-independent and run-prevention numbers — largely, those, on the strength of unexpected strong ground-ball tendencies. Jeff Sullivan examined those tendencies yesterday. One takeaway: he’s been throwing a riding fastball low in the zone. More than most every pitcher.

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The team behind the Steamer projections has put together a tool to better visualize the steamer split projections. Just click on the image or various links and start slicing and dicing.

“In the visualization, you will find a new output of the Steamer Projection system: Rest of season split projections. This visualization is customizable: you may select different stats to display on the graphs, and choose to only display certain teams and positions. It was designed to be a stand-alone tool, and it can even be embedded directly on your website or posted on social media. We plan to update it weekly so that our ROS projection stay up to date.”

Coming into the season, you might have had a three-part checklist for Mariners’ lefty James Paxton. Can he throw more high fastballs, can he improve his changeup, and can he hold his velocity and command? We know his curve is good, and most years, he has the big velocity that has turned our attention to him. But these three items sum up the healthy skepticism that still remains, and the pitcher knows all about them.

Jeff Sullivan recommended high fastballs for Paxton because his fastball has rise but he throws it low. Currently the Seattle lefty is showing almost exactly the same whiff and strikeout rates as he showed last year, so maybe he wasn’t listening.

Except that he was! “I do utilize the high fastball, to work off of it, and have the curveball drop off it,” Paxton said of the fact that high fastball release points can help mask a high curveball release point.

But the pitcher also admitted that the high fastball was “probably something I could work into my game a little more effectively.” He’s been trying, as you can see from the fastball heat maps below from Baseball Savant (2014 on the left, 2015 on the right). If you prefer numbers, Paxton has thrown 29% of his fastballs in the top third of the zone this year, up from 25% last year. And his rank with respect to his peers has changed, as he used to be in the 41st percentile for high fastballs, and so far this year, he’s in the 31st percentile.

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I’ll start this one like I think I’ve started another, probably also about Shane Greene. Who remembers? Last summer, while working on an article for The Hardball Times Annual, I talked to Brandon McCarthy about the significance and implementation of contemporary data. It was a long interview and a lot went into the article, so I’m not going to sit here and spoil everything, but McCarthy noted something he learned immediately upon joining the Yankees. Right away, they told him about the value of an elevated fastball. Even though McCarthy was more traditionally a sinker-baller, he found that he could get easy outs sometimes going hard and up, with hitters geared for pitches down. Adding one new level made hitting exponentially more difficult.

As the conversation went on, it turned to then-Yankees sensation Shane Greene. Maybe “sensation” is over-selling him, but he came out of nowhere, and he was throwing gas. Greene was whiffing a batter an inning, powered by a mid-90s sinker that he kept down by the knees, and as we neared the end, McCarthy made one more point. The Yankees had given Greene very simple offseason instructions: he was to improve his ability to throw a fastball up.

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Avert your eyes, Milwaukee Brewers fans. I apologize in advance for how painful this may be.

When the Brewers woke up on Monday morning, they were merely a bad baseball team, off to a 2-10 start, the worst in 47 years of Pilots/Brewers baseball. When they went to bed on Monday night, they were still a bad baseball team, off to a 2-11 start, one of just two teams with fewer than four wins. In between, second baseman Scooter Gennett joined the “stupidly weird injury” club, slicing his hand open in the shower. In between, star catcher Jonathan Lucroy left Monday’s 6-1 loss to Cincinnati early with what was revealed to be a fractured toe, one that manager Ron Roenicke could apparently hear happening.

So there’s terrible baseball, and then there’s this, in which a team that had just about no margin for error has gotten off to what’s basically the worst possible start imaginable. You can’t make the playoffs in April, but you sure can miss them. That’s a saying that exists or it’s one I’m either making up or poorly paraphrasing, but now it’s on the Internet, and therefore it’s true. Welcome to the 2015 Milwaukee Brewers, a team that just saw its season implode before it really began. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam banter about batting around and Bryan Price’s media meltdown, then check in on early-season statistical trends.

Episode 553
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he doesn’t not discuss Kris Bryant at some level.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 38 min play time.)

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