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Evaluating the Prospects: Rangers, Rockies, D’Backs, Twins, Astros, Cubs, Reds, Phillies, Rays, Mets, Padres, Marlins, Nationals, Red Sox, White Sox, Orioles, Yankees, Braves, Athletics, Angels, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Tigers, Cardinals, Brewers, Indians, Mariners, Pirates, Royals & Giants

Top 200 Prospects Content Index

Scouting Explained: Introduction, Hitting Pt 1 Pt 2 Pt 3 Pt 4 Pt 5 Pt 6

Draft Rankings: 2015, 2016 & 2017

International Coverage: 2015 July 2nd Parts One, Two & Three, 2016 July 2nd

The Mariners have done a nice job in amateur acquisition the last few years, evidenced by 4th round, well-below-slot college senior signs LF Patrick Kivlehan and LHP Ryan Yarbrough in the 45 FV group on the list. Seattle has always spent money internationally and there’s clear evidence of that below. As noted in the Gareth Morgan scouting report, the Mariners have shown a clear preference for right-handed power in the amateur markets in recent years, but taking Alex Jackson 6th overall last year was a slam-dunk decision on a guy Seattle didn’t think would make it to their pick. There’s a nice mix of international and domestic, high upside and high certainty, hitter and pitcher, etc. I have this system in the middle third of the org rankings, with plenty of upside guys that could help raise that ranking next year.

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Milwaukee’s Jonathan Lucroy has distinguished himself in recent years as one of the major leagues’ best players. Not only, for example, did he rank among the top-ten hitters by WAR last year, but also added the third-most runs by way of catcher framing according to the methodology used by Matthew Carruth at StatCorner — which metric isn’t included in the WAR figures here at the site. Overall, he produced the fifth-best season in the majors last year, according to our writers.

This spring, Lucroy is pursuing another means by which to improve his already impressive skill set — namely, by never striking out. No batter this spring has recorded as many plate appearances as Lucroy (33) while also recording a strikeout rate of 0%.

Insofar as literally zero qualified batters since 1913 (since which year the relevant data exists) have produced a 0% strikeout rate — and also insofar as league-wide strikeout rates are currently at an all-time high — it’s unlikely that Lucroy will be able to parlay this particular brand of success into a full major-league season.

“What if he did, though?” is the sort of idle question one fortunate enough to have been born and raised in a middle-class family is able both to ask and attempt to answer in exchange for even more money. The results of that inquiry are below.

What I did was to start with Lucroy’s Depth Chart projection and then convert every strikeout into a batted ball, assuming that those batted balls would be distributed as singles and doubles and triples and home runs at the same rate at which Lucroy’s actual hits are projected to occur. I made no adjustments to walk rate or BABIP or, like, sacrifice flies — all of which would also certainly change if the actual Jonathan Lucroy were never to strike out. Attempting to account for all those numbers, however, would require even more and weirder assumptions, so I’ve opted just for this simpler version.

Below are the results of those math tricks. Proj denotes Lucroy’s Depth Chart projection. 0 Ks denotes his projection with strikeouts converted into batted balls. Diff is the result of the first line subtracted from the second.

If Lucroy were never to strike out, he’d produce nearly 18 runs over the course of a season — or, roughly two wins. A considerable improvement, that. And yet, if that number seems perhaps underwhelming, it’s because Lucroy is already projected to record just a 12.0% strikeout rate this year — already greater than a standard deviation better than league average.

To find the largest possible gain provided by a zero-strikeout projections, it’s necessary to identify a player who both (a) strikes out frequently and also (b) produced considerable damage on contact. Houston’s Chris Carter is that precise sort of player.

What would happen, in this hypotethetical world, if Chris Carter never struck out. Here are thes results using the same methodology as with Lucroy:

Seven wins! Chris Carter would become more or less Mike Trout’s equal in this particular case. The contingency is unlikely, of course.

To say Javier Baez had a rocky start to his big league career would be an understatement. After tearing up the minor leagues to the tune of .274/.331/.541, the 21-year-old rookie hit a putrid .169/.227/.324 in 52 games with the Chicago Cubs last year. His on base percentage was the lowest of any hitter who recorded at least 200 plate appearances last year.

Baez’s contact problems were unprecedentedly chronic. Just 59% of his swings resulted in contact, which is the lowest mark we’ve seen in the PITCHf/x era. However, Baez’s Contact% only tells part of the story. It reveals that many of his swings didn’t lead to contact, but doesn’t tell us why. Read the rest of this entry »

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We’re just a week from Opening Day, and while our Positional Power Rankings series is designed to give an overview of each team’s strengths and weaknesses, it’s still helpful to look at each team in the context of their division. So, today, I’m kicking off our divisional previews, and we’ll knock out each division — going west to east — over the rest of the week. Today, we’ll start with the NL West.

The Projected Standings

Our forecasts suggest that there’s a clear favorite at the top, two teams in a pretty close fight for second, and two also-rans who are unlikely to make a serious push for the postseason. Let’s take a closer look at each team.

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Thirty-three innings into his major league career, Anthony DeSclafani was traded to the Reds. The Reds braintrust must have seen a few things they liked about his arsenal, and now it looks like he’s got a rotation spot. He’s got a good fastball, a decent breaking ball, and good command, that much most people agree on, even as they doubt him. So much of his future, though, hangs on the quality of his changeup.

Ask the pitcher to sum himself up, and you get what you might see the first time you take a look at DeSclafani’s numbers. “I’m an aggressive pitcher, especially with my fastball,” he said before a spring game. “Attacking hitters, going after guys — I just like to attack the strike zone, really.”

DeSclafani walked just two batters per nine in the minors, and only five in his first 33 major league innings. Last year, the league’s starters threw 56% fastballs, and the 24-year-old Marlin threw 70% fastballs. He was in the zone 49% of the time last year, and the league average was 42%. He knows himself well. His short description of himself is decent.

But most agree that he has a good fastball and decent command. And also that his breaking ball is good. It got 19% whiffs last year, and the major league average is around 14%.

Still. Batters had an OPS of .850 against his slider last year. That might be because major league hitters can be ready for those fastballs and breaking balls when the pitcher is obvious in trying to even the count.

“You have to be able to throw any pitch in any count,” DeSclafani says he learned last year. The league threw breaking balls 20% of the time in counts with zero or one strike last year, and then upped that to 30% in two-strike counts. DeSclafani went from 20% to 40% slider usage once he got two strikes, and maybe that was too predictable.

But part of the issue here is the depth of repertoire. If he had more faith in the curve or the change, he’d have another weapon at his disposal in those moments.

The curve is almost a total unknown. “Just started throwing a curveball at the end of the year last year, in September,” the pitcher admitted. He had thrown it before, but it wasn’t any good. “It was a below-average pitch so I kinda canned it. Fixed the mechanics, and I spike it now.”

Read the rest on Just a Bit Outside.

The almost certain, impending demotion of Kris Bryant to the minor leagues for the season’s first couple weeks has brought renewed focus on Major League Baseball’s service time rules. As most readers are by now well aware, by sending Bryant to the minors for the first two weeks of the season, the Cubs will ensure that he fails to earn a full year’s worth of major league service time in 2015, preventing Bryant from becoming a free agent until 2021, rather than after the 2020 season. While it thus makes sense from a business standpoint for the Cubs to send Bryant to the minors for a fortnight to preserve an extra year of his services down the road, the thought that baseball’s top prospect – and MLB’s spring training home run leader – could begin the season in Triple-A has nevertheless led to calls for the Major League Baseball Players Association to take a stand on the issue.

Last week, for instance, Ken Rosenthal wrote a column arguing that the MLBPA should file a grievance if Bryant is demoted. Although he recognized that the union would almost certainly lose such a grievance – since arbitrators generally defer to teams on decisions regarding a player’s major-league readiness – Rosenthal nevertheless believed it would show the owners that the MLBPA won’t be pushed around on the issue. Meanwhile, others have taken a somewhat more patient approach, urging the MLBPA to address service time manipulation in the next round of collective bargaining talks following the 2016 season.

However, while service time manipulation certainly needs to be dealt with, the MLBPA has a much more significant and pressing – but often overlooked – issue to address in the next round of CBA negotiations: the players’ plummeting share of overall MLB league revenues.

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Ben and Sam preview the Nationals’ season with Chris Cwik, and Sahadev talks to Washington Post Nationals beat writer James Wagner (at 26:56).

Glen Perkins and Anthony Varvaro have reverse splits – specifically with regard to allowing runners — for distinctly different reasons. The Twins southpaw attributes his to spatial relationships. The Red Sox righty points to a swinging gate.

Before we get to their thoughts on the subject, let’s look at the numbers.

Last season, left-handed batters hit .284/.324/.448 against Perkins, while right-handed batters hit .249/.278/.422. Two years ago, lefties hit .236/.271/.273, righties .183/.251/.317.

Right-handed batters were .274/.341/.376 against Varvaro in 2013, while left-handed batters hit .207/.267/.281. Last season, righties hit .273/.314/.406, lefties .198/.284/.481.

Varvaro, who was acquired by Boston from the Braves in December, has been queried about his reverse splits countless times. He doesn’t have a definitive answer – at least not a comprehensive one – but he does have theories. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 542
Craig Robinson is a native of Lincoln, England; resident of Mexico City; author of Flip Flop Fly Ball, a book of infographics on the topic of baseball; and, most importantly, owner-operator of the URL CraigRobinson.com. He’s also the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio, recorded at La Bipo, a cantina in the Coyoacán district of Mexico City.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 57 min play time.)

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