FanGraphs Baseball

Contract Crowdsourcing: Yoan Moncada

As of yesterday afternoon, Cuban defector Yoan Moncada has been cleared to sign with a major-league organization. Kiley McDaniel has provided all the relevant information concerning Moncada — including McDaniel’s own best guesses regarding Moncada’s signing bonus and the club most likely to provide it.

The purpose of this post is to harness the wisdom of the crowds with a view towards estimating the probabilities of various outcomes. Use the ballot below to submit answers regarding various aspects of Moncada’s near and slightly less-near future. Note that estimates regarding Moncada’s bonus should not include the 100% tax for which the signing club will be responsible.


Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 2/4/15

11:47
Dave Cameron: It’s Wednesday, so let’s chat about… James Shields, I guess? Or maybe my get-rid-of-the-draft proposal, which you can read here: http://www.foxsports.com/ml…

12:00
Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s do this thing.

12:01
Comment From Vslyke
Do you think Mike Minor gets dealt at the deadline if he rebounds? He’s older than most of the Braves staff and will be a FA after the 2017 season.

12:01
Dave Cameron: I’d imagine pretty much any Brave not named Freeman or Simmons having a good year could be trade bait.

12:01
Comment From Kris
Why not lump everyone together and allow the draft picks to be traded among teams while keeping the slot’s in place?

12:02
Dave Cameron: If the function of the draft can be replicated without the process of assigning picks — and it can be — then the picks are useless, and come with negative side effects like we saw with Brady Aiken this summer.

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FG on Fox: Who Needs a Draft?

Yesterday, Major League Baseball officially declared Yoan Moncada — perhaps the most coveted player to defect from Cuba in the last few years — free to sign with any Major League club. The bidding is expected to be intense, with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers tabbed as the early favorites. Given the tax that will be levied on on the team that signs Moncada, the high-revenue clubs are at a significant advantage, and Moncada’s signing will likely be used as evidence of the need for an international draft.

In his conversation with Ken Rosenthal last week, Commissioner Manfred publicly supported such an idea, stating that his “long haul goal” would be “to get to an international draft.” With the big money clubs blowing up the league’s system for signing young international free agents, an overhaul of the process is inevitable. But while the draft has become the de facto method for sports leagues to distribute incoming young talent — under the guise of competitive balance, but with the primary goal of holding down acquisition costs — I’d like to suggest that Major League Baseball go the other direction instead.

The logistics of incorporating international players into a draft are problematic, which is why baseball settled on its current recommended bonus system instead. And there is merit to the structure that the league created; if you have various spending allocations in place, you don’t actually need to go through the process of draft positions. The best players want the most money, so by simply creating a system where some teams have more money to spend than others, you can funnel incoming talent to certain types of teams even without handing out specific draft positions.

The problem lies in the execution of MLB’s international system, as the bonus pools are akin to speed limits instead of actual barriers. Because teams have calculated that Moncada’s talent is worthy of paying the penalties associated with blowing their budgets out of the water, the limits are functionally useless. But if the limits were firm caps, and teams were unable to exceed their pool allocations, then we wouldn’t be facing a situation where the richest teams in baseball were flexing their financial muscles to add an elite talent while the have-nots sit on the sidelines wishing for a more level playing field.

So what if there was no draft? Instead, what if we just lumped all new players — foreign or domestic — into a single acquisition system where each player was free to sigh with the team of their choice, only with firm spending caps in place to ensure that young talent flows more freely to clubs who can’t compete on Major League payroll alone? In other words, a team’s talent acquisition budget would be inversely tied to their Major League payroll; the more you spend on big leaguers, the less you get to spend on prospects, and vice versa.

Read the rest on Just a Bit Outside.


2015 ZiPS Projections – Texas Rangers

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
One doesn’t wake up every morning to find articles in the morning dailies arguing on behalf of Adrian Beltre’s Hall of Fame candidacy, and yet all indications are that, even were he to retire this second, he’d be a deserving inductee. Both his career WAR and also JAWS figures currently reside above the threshold for the average Hall of Fame entrant. ZiPS projects him to add four more wins to his resume in 2015.

Mike Petriello has already written this week about the Arizona Diamondbacks and their curiously shallow catcher depth chart. A properly motivated individual would probably have some luck composing a similar piece regarding the Rangers’ left-field spot. Jake Smolinski (468 PA, 0.1 WAR) is the favorite to earn the starting role there, while Michael Choice (559 PA, -0.4 WAR) is another candidate.

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Ken Giles: Because the Phillies Deserve a Bright Spot

When we talk about the Philadelphia Phillies around here these days, it’s rarely in a positive light. It’s usually about wondering what they’re doing with Cole Hamels, or how Ryan Howard is completely unmovable, or just generally wondering how many years it might take to return the team to relevance. They’ve brought this on themselves with their direction — or lack of it — over the past few years. When you look at the fact that they have six different positions ranking in the bottom three in our 2015 projections, you really start to understand just how bad this team is going to be.

But it’s not all bad. It can’t be. Even the Phillies are going to have a bright spot. Since I’m in a charitable mood, and since there’s very little happening in baseball right now, and since we haven’t really talked about him yet, let’s focus today on Ken Giles, who very well might be the team’s closer this year should Jonathan Papelbon get moved.

Let’s start with some small sample sizes to output a ranking that is technically accurate, yet obviously flawed: Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 608: Unsolved Mysteries of the Mailbag

Ben and Sam discuss why the league is looking less clutch and answer listener emails about time-released rumors, a cryptic comment by Buck Showalter, Rick Porcello’s salary, and more.


Improving Billy Hamilton

Now that football’s officially over for a while, countless sports fans are going to look ahead to the baseball season, with 2015 promising to be The Year Of Mookie Betts. This comes on the heels of 2014, which at one time promised to be The Year Of Billy Hamilton. And, to be fair, it was in a sense The Half-Year Of Billy Hamilton, but then Hamilton fell on harder times, losing a Rookie-of-the-Year race he once had all but locked up. Hamilton is now presumably older and presumably wiser, and he remains a player of unusual intrigue, along with being an important player for a Reds team that steadfastly refuses to tear down and start over.

Hamilton, naturally, has things to improve on. Every player in baseball has things to improve on — Clayton Kershaw has things to improve on — but Hamilton’s things are bigger than Kershaw’s things. Kershaw, for example, might want to polish his changeup a little more. Or maybe not. It’ll cross his mind. Hamilton, meanwhile, wants to not suck at hitting. His own manager has some ideas.

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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 2/3/15

9:37
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

Jeff and I will be here at 9 pm ET to answer all of your base-and-or-balling queries. See you soon!

9:00
Paul Swydan: Hey guys, one minute and we’ll get started.

9:04
Paul Swydan: OK, here we go. Jeff is making more polls.

9:05
Paul Swydan: Glad to see BU is leading the Beanpot poll (of the four schools anyway).

9:05
Comment From Rated Rookie

9:05
Paul Swydan: I forget why he does this. This is from Fletch right? I need to whip out that DVD again soon.

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Everything You Need to Know About Yoan Moncada

As I reported on twitter moments ago, MLB sent a memo to clubs detailing the new process for Cuban players to go from leaving the country to signing with an MLB team. The short version is that super prospect Yoan Moncada is eligible to sign now, after a maddening long delay.

For those new to this topic or if you just want a refresher, here’s a recap of my coverage of this Moncada saga from the start:

– October 3, 2014: Moncada is confirmed out of Cuba, but no one knows where he is.  We assume his whereabouts will become clear soon as he’s the most hyped prospect to leave the island in years. Here I first quote the common “teenage Puig that can play the infield and switch hit” comp and break down all the implications about who can sign him, who is likely to pony up the big bucks, game theory implications and more.

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 2/3/15

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to live baseball chat

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Approximately nothing has happened in baseball for a couple of weeks, so this ought to be gripping

9:04
Comment From Tony G.
Are you surprised that Shields still hasn’t signed?

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: I think everybody is. I usually don’t worry about these things when they drag out, but there’s something about the calendar flipping to February

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s in some way an encouraging reflection of the baseball market — teams are less willing to pay for what a player has already done. With Shields, you sell the durability, the innings totals, but teams now are genuinely afraid of what all that durability might mean now

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