FanGraphs Baseball

What if I told you there’s a shortstop in his 20s, available for presumably less than Ervin Santana money, coming off a year in which he hit 40 dingers with a four-digit OPS? It’s true — all of those things are true. The shortstop’s name is Jung-Ho Kang, and he really did have such a season. It just didn’t take place where you were looking.

It did take place where several different major-league organizations were looking. Maybe you can try to think of Kang as the Troy Tulowitzki of Korea, and while that’s a stretch, it’s pretty damn promising, at least until the “of Korea” part. There’s no debating Kang’s record; the 27-year-old just batted .356 while slugging .739 for Nexen in the KBO. He owns a career OPS of .886. In 2012, he finished second in the league in OPS. In 2013, he finished ninth. In 2014, he finished first, by dozens of points. The real concern is simple: Kang is trying to become the first KBO position player to reach the major leagues. So such a transition would be unprecedented.

It’s true, we have Hyun-Jin Ryu, but then Ryu was (and is) a starting pitcher. As far as Korean hitters are concerned, Shin-Soo Choo and Hee Seop Choi have each had success, but then they were raised within big-league organizations, so they didn’t come over from the KBO as vets. That’s why so many people wonder about Kang’s potential. This is why he could be a bargain, and this is why he could be a bust.

Read the rest on Just A Bit Outside.

The never-ending transaction wheel in San Diego has continued to spin this morning. In the wake of acquiring Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, and Justin Upton, the Padres have now set their sights on remaking their infield. First stop was to find a new third baseman, and the team has shockingly settled on a defensively challenged right-handed slugger with contact issues. Will Middlebrooks played his way out of Boston even before the team signed Pablo Sandoval to replace him, so he was clearly getting traded this winter; the Padres picked him up in exchange for Ryan Hanigan, who came over from the Rays.

Middlebrooks’ value will likely come down to his defense at third base. Steamer projects him as a league average hitter for 2015, a significant step up from what he’s done in Boston. A 97 wRC+ with solid defense at third base is a pretty nice role player, especially for the league minimum and with multiple years of team control.

That said, his defensive value isn’t so cut and dry. In just under 2,000 innings at third base, UZR thinks he’s been okay-ish, rating him at -3 runs per 150 games. However, DRS has him at -16 over the same time period, which would make him among the worst third baseman in baseball. With a sample this small, you certainly want to regress towards the mean, and so Middlebrooks should probably project as something closer to league average with the glove until we have more evidence that he’s not.

If he’s a decent enough defender, he’s a +1 to +2 WAR player with a little bit of upside. If he’s the butcher that DRS thinks, he’s Chris Johnson 2.0.

Still, the price was right to take the gamble, as Hanigan is a good defender who was displaced by last night’s acquisition of Derek Norris, and the team just signed David Ross to take over as the defensive half of the catcher tandem. Hanigan will be a useful player for the Red Sox, but the gap between what he provides and what the Padres will get from Ross isn’t huge, especially in a reserve role.

The Padres still have plenty of work to do to sort out a roster crowded with outfielders and heavy on right-handed hitters, but the Hanigan/Middlebrooks swap gives them a decent third baseman without dramatically downgrading their catching situation. This kind of offense-only-who-cares-about-defense philosophy is never going to win me over, but this part of the plan looks reasonable, at least.

The Braves are sending right fielder Justin Upton and a yet-to-be-named-publicly low level prospect to the Padres for for pitcher Max Fried, center fielder Mallex Smith, second baseman Jace Peterson and third baseman Dustin Peterson.  It’s an interesting way for Atlanta to get a very high upside player not usually available in a package for a one-year rental.  As I did with my breakdown of the Wil Myers trade, I’ve ranked the pieces in order of my preference, with a note where there’s a virtual tie.

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This week, the Padres have acquired Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers. There is a chance that they keep all three and play them side by side as their 2015 outfield. It would be an experiment in testing the limits of the offense/defense balance, essentially betting that fielding matters very little in relation to hitting the ball over the wall yourself. If the Padres keep all three in the outfield, they’re likely to have one of the best offensive and worst defensive outfields in baseball next year.

They wouldn’t the first team to try this, however. For fun, I decided to look back through the years for which we have UZR data and find teams that have punted outfield defense to maximize their own HR totals. To do this, I took all the team seasons since 2002, and looked for teams who ranked at the top and bottom of the league in home runs and UZR in the same season. Here are three examples of teams that have tried this same strategy in the last 13 years.

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After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Oakland / Tampa Bay.

Batters
The Nationals featured eight field players who produced a 1.2 WAR or better in 2014. All eight of them, with the exception of Adam LaRoche, appear in the depth-chart image below. All eight of them — again, with the exception of Adam LaRoche — are projected to produce a 1.8 WAR or better in 2014.

The weak point for the club remains the second-base position. Danny Espinosa is a defensive asset there and has above-average power (especially relative to the position), but his plate discipline has eroded almost entirely. According to ZiPS, middle infielder Wilmer Difo (1.6 WAR in 507 PA) is probably the club’s best option at second in terms of wins — although, insofar as he’s just barely played at High-A, that he’d play an important role at the major-league level appears unlikely.

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Well, this is fascinating. A day after finalizing the Matt Kemp trade, and on the day the Wil Myers trade is expected to be announced, the Padres have reportedly agreed to acquire Justin Upton as well. I think it’s safe to say that A.J. Preller puts a high value on right-handed power hitting outfielders.

As I see it, there are a few ways this could work.

1. The Padres are going to play either Wil Myers or Matt Kemp in center field. Myers came up as a CF in the minors, while Kemp has played mostly CF in the big leagues. If the Padres just really think defense is completely useless, this gets all three sluggers into the line-up and maximizes the team’s offense.

2. Either Kemp or Myers is going to go to first base, replacing Yonder Alonso, who doesn’t really fit into the mold of what the new Padres seem to value. Kemp would seem to be the better candidate, but Jeff Passan suggests that maybe Myers would be the guy heading to first base instead.

3. Wil Myers is getting traded again. As I speculated a few nights ago, there’s a fit between the Padres and Rangers for a Wil Myers-Jurickson Profar swap, assuming the two sides could agree on the other parts of the deal. The Rangers need a right fielder, the Padres need a shortstop, and both sides clearly have depth to trade from now.

Any of the three options would be kind of interesting, at least. The first option seems the most likely, and probably the worst, as punting outfield defense entirely just isn’t a very good plan. Kemp would be more valuable at first base than in the outfield, but swapping one of the newly acquired OFs for an SS might be the best plan of all. Clearly, the Padres aren’t done dealing just yet.

For this week’s Library update, we’ve rolled out a very long, thorough glossary entry that offers a brief description and links (where applicable) for every single pitching statistic available on our leaderboards. It’s easy to find our glossary entry on FIP, for example, but if you want to know what wFB/C is, it takes a little bit of digging to get to the right place.

Now, we have a permanent pages that lists every statistic we have according to the acronym used on the leaderboard. You can jump over to this page at any time and find the corresponding stat or use “CTRL + F” to make your Internet computers do it for you.

As always, should you have any questions, I encourage you to drop a comment below, find me on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44, or stop by our weekly Q&A chats Wednesdays at 3pm. Enjoy!

International baseball has been in the news often lately with the ongoing saga of Yoan Moncada (he’s in America now), the signing of Yasmany Tomas and yesterday’s news that Cuba-U.S. relations could be getting much better.  In recent news, at the yearly international scouting directors’ meeting at the Winter Meetings last week, sources tell me there was no talk about the recent controversial rule change and no talk about an international draft, as expected.

So much has been happening lately that you may have temporarily forgotten about last summer, when the Yankees obliterated the international amateur spending record (and recently added another prospect). If the early rumors and innuendo are any indication, the rest of baseball isn’t going to let the Yankees have the last word.

I already mentioned the Cubs as one of multiple teams expected to spend well past their bonus pool starting on July 2nd, 2015.  I had heard rumors of other clubs planning to get in the act when I wrote that, but the group keeps growing with each call I make, so I decided to survey the industry and see where we stand.  After surveying about a dozen international sources, here are the dozen clubs that scouts either are sure, pretty sure or at least very suspicious will be spending past their bonus pool, ranked in order of likelihood:

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Ben and Sam talk to pitcher-turned-attorney Garrett Broshuis about his class-action lawsuit seeking higher wages for minor league players.

If I had to sum up the offseason for the Oakland Athletics and San Diego Padres, it would be thusly:

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