FanGraphs Baseball

Nick Ennis was recently promoted to Director of Baseball Operations for the San Diego Padres. He signed on with the Padres as an intern in the baseball operations department out of Columbia Business School, and has also been an advance scout since he joined the team in 2010. He agreed to talk at the Winter Meetings in San Diego, where he had a hotel room despite living five minutes from the convention center. How else are you going to finish up work at two a.m. in the morning and be available for brunch?

Eno Sarris: One of the first interviews I ever did was at the winter meetings, with John Coppolella, now an Assistant General Manager in Atlanta. I asked him about defensive stats, and where they were, and if he ever looked at stats like UZR. He said, yeah, we do have some of that stuff in our database and we have our own opinions. When it comes to the stuff that you see on FanGraphs, how far off is the research?

Nick Ennis: That’s a good question because in the realm of their information, the lens through which they view the world — a macro view, bucketing different outcomes of batted balls with the information that they have, that kind of stuff — I think they’re good. With the public information at their disposal, those metrics are good. That’s a testament to the skills and talent of the members of the public baseball analytics community.

Where the clubs might have access to information that isn’t publicly available — whether it’s information that’s proprietary to that specific club, or information that’s shared only amongst clubs — then you start to see advantages potentially. Better input, essentially. All these models are going to depend on their inputs as well as the way they weigh those inputs.

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After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Colorado / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Oakland / Tampa Bay.

Batters
On the strength of his five wins, Jose Abreu was worth approximately $30 million in 2014. Should he regress a little but still manage the 3.5 WAR projected here by ZiPS, Abreu will have produced approximately $50 million in value over the first two years of the six-year, $68 million contract he signed in October of last year. Even if he ultimately opts in to arbitration (which he’s permitted to do — and almost certainly will do, at this rate — under the terms of his contract), the probability remains that Abreu will have provided an excellent return on investment.

Elsewhere around the field, it’s more difficult to find such optimism. As noted by Jeff Sullivan on Monday, the White Sox’ rate above average only at first base and DH according to the Steamer projections. Indeed, ZiPS paints a similar portrait — with the exception of center field Adam Eaton, perhaps, for whose 2015 season it’s decidedly more encouraging.

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Two years ago, the Rays traded James Shields and Wade Davis to the Kansas City Royals for a package of talent centered around outfield prospect Wil Myers. The deal was divisive to say the least, primarily due to Myers’ inclusion; teams generally just didn’t trade prospects of his stature. When you have a 22 year old Major League ready slugger who rates as the 4th best prospect in the game, and you have an opening at the position that he plays, you generally build around him instead of using him to acquire an upgrade elsewhere.

But the Royals didn’t keep Wil Myers, preferring the short-term boost of adding a frontline starting pitcher and another talented arm who would become one of the game’s most dominant relievers. So, instead, the young right fielder went to Tampa Bay, where he was quickly anointed as the next big thing; he then justified the hype by winning the 2013 American League Rookie of the Year. But after a miserable 2014 season — including a two month stint on the disabled list due to a broken wrist — the Rays are reportedly on the verge of shipping Myers to San Diego, being the second team to sell off his future in 24 months.

So what’s the deal? Why is a promising young talent like Myers about to be on his third organization before turning 25? Is there a concern about his future that has caused teams to sour on him more quickly than we’d expect, given his performance and pedigree? Let’s take a look under the hood and see if we can identify any potential red flags.

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The other day, I wrote the Chicago White Sox still don’t seem very good. Naturally, that drew something of a negative response, and that’s fine — people ought to be excited, and it was kind of a buzzkill headline. The White Sox have been active, and general manager Rick Hahn has succeeded in turning nothing into something, at least as far as 2015 is concerned. We all recognize there’s a reason they play the games. Who knows what might happen? Who knows what else Hahn might eventually do? Yet, within the comments, something caught my eye. Some people think Steamer projects too much regression with the White Sox. Which got some gears whirring: How do our current projections compare to roster projections using only last year’s stats?

Obviously, if you’re trying to predict Year X + 1, you need to look at information from more than just Year X. Different people will recommend looking at different windows, but as a rule of thumb, you want to consider at least three or four years, if the data’s there. Plus, there are still other things to take into account. But while Year X isn’t the only thing that’s important, Year X is also the freshest data set in memory. So when a projection differs from what literally just finished happening, people might be prone to thinking that something’s amiss.

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Ben and Sam answer listener emails about baseball aesthetics, baseball myths, and trades involving only big leaguers, then discuss the Dodgers’ Brett Anderson signing.

If you haven’t been on Twitter tonight, you’ve missed a series of pretty fascinating rumors. According to various reports — most easily summed up over at MLBTradeRumors — the Rays are working on a trade with the Padres that would send Wil Myers to San Diego. The likely return is not yet known, nor is it entirely certain that Myers would stay with the Padres, as Jeff Passan is suggesting that this deal could be the precursor for another trade.

Sense among those in the know is that while Padres-Rays deal involving Wil Myers is straight-up, players dealt could be on the move again.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 17, 2014

With Matt Kemp and Seth Smith already in the fold, the Padres don’t seem like a great fit for another corner outfielder, though they have been previously linked to Justin Upton, so perhaps they’re planning on acquiring Myers to replace Smith. But for a team that seems to be making moves to upgrade now, that would be a little odd, given the projections for 2015.

So, let’s just speculate a bit. What the Padres need more than another corner outfielder is a shortstop. You know who has an extra young shortstop and needs a corner outfielder? The Texas Rangers. You know where A.J. Preller just worked, running the international scouting department when Jurickson Profar was signed as a 16 year old? Yeah, the Texas Rangers.

Completely speculative, but perhaps the Padres are looking to acquire Myers because Preller knows that Jon Daniels wants him to play right field, and will give up Profar and some other of Preller’s old favorites. Given the injury problems Profar has suffered, I find it unlikely that there would be a one for one trade, but I could see a situation where the Padres are trading prospects to get the guy that gets them Profar.

Or, maybe they just love Wil Myers. There aren’t too many good young above average hitters on the market these days, and Smith isn’t good enough that you don’t acquire a piece of that value simply because it forces another deal. Perhaps we’ll find out soon. I think my wild speculation about a Myers-Profar second deal at least sounds reasonable, even if it’s based on nothing more than imagination.

Earlier today, Kiley McDaniel published his consummately researched and demonstrably authoritative prospect list for the Tampa Bay Rays. What follows is a different exercise than that, one much smaller in scope and designed to identify not Tampa Bay’s top overall prospects but rather the rookie-eligible players in the Rays system who are most ready to produce wins at the major-league level in 2015 (regardless of whether they’re likely to receive the opportunity to do so). No attempt has been made, in other words, to account for future value.

Below are the top-five prospects in the Rays system by projected WAR. To assemble this brief list, what I’ve done is to locate the Steamer 600 projections for all the prospects to whom McDaniel assessed a Future Value grade of 40 or greater. Hitters’ numbers are normalized to 550 plate appearances; starting pitchers’, to 150 innings — i.e. the playing-time thresholds at which a league-average player would produce a 2.0 WAR. Catcher projections are prorated to 415 plate appearances to account for their reduced playing time.

Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts — which is to say, there has been no attempt to account for the runs a player is likely to save in the field. As a result, players with an impressive offensive profile relative to their position are sometimes perhaps overvalued — that is, in such cases where their actual defensive skills are sub-par.

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A few days ago, Dave had to throw up an omnibus transaction post for the last day of the winter meetings. Moves were getting made fastly and furiously, and Dave couldn’t keep up writing about each one individually, so for simplicity he crammed some of them together. Well, what we have now is another little flurry of moves, albeit lesser moves than some that were made last week. But in keeping with what I’ll designate as a new InstaGraphs tradition, here is another omnibus transaction post, despite it not being titled as such. Following, moves that have happened in the last 24 hours, and three sentences about them. Maybe you don’t think that’s enough sentences, but before this post, the moves had been given zero sentences. Three is bigger than zero! That’s just analysis.

Rays trade Matt Joyce to Angels for Kevin Jepsen

The Rays just found out they’ll start the year without Jake McGee, so Jepsen’s a nice bullpen addition with two remaining years of team control, against Joyce’s one. Jepsen’s coming off a career-best strikeout season, having added a functional changeup he threw once per six pitches. Joyce can’t do anything against left-handed pitching, but he’s proven very much useful against right-handed pitching, so the Angels can pair him with C.J. Cron while using him also as Josh Hamilton injury insurance.

Yankees sign Chris Capuano for $5 million

CC Sabathia is coming off surgery, Ivan Nova is coming off surgery, Masahiro Tanaka is coming off an elbow problem, Michael Pineda isn’t too far removed from surgery, and the Yankees recently traded Shane Greene for a shortstop. There are reasons why the Yankees have been rumored to have interest in Max Scherzer, but even failing a Scherzer pursuit, it’s never the worst idea in the world to try to accumulate some starting-rotation depth. It can be difficult to find a functional veteran willing to move to the bullpen if that’s what needs demand, so what the Yankees have in Capuano is a relatively rare sort who’s willing and able to be fine in two roles.

Rockies sign Daniel Descalso for $3.6 million over two years

Over four years as a semi-regular with the Cardinals, Descalso was worth exactly 0.0 WAR. He plays all over the infield, so he’s basically just taking the place of the departed Josh Rutledge. Two years might seem like too long, but in the grand scheme of things, what are two years, really?

Marlins sign Michael Morse for $16 million over two years

Right-handed power, playoff experience, and he’s not Garrett Jones. When he’s healthy, Morse remains a potent hitter, and he might very well outhit the more expensive Kendrys Morales and Billy Butler. Yet because he’s seldom healthy, and because he’s not a good defender anywhere, this is going to read like a better deal than it is, and you have to remember that the market allowed for this contract to happen despite there being so few legitimate bats available.

Padres sign Brandon Morrow for $2.5 million, with incentives

Morrow has narrowly exceeded 200 innings over his last three years combined, with diminishing totals in each. He’s understood to be a massive injury risk, and in his peak WAR seasons, he had unremarkable RA9-WAR seasons. Yet the last time we saw Morrow, he was still throwing in the mid-90s, and he’s just 30 years old, so as an upside starter or an upside reliever, Morrow’s a perfectly sensible investment for a team that sure wants to do something in 2015.

Padres sign Trayvon Robinson to minor-league contract

It happened. I think. That’s what the internet says.

Braves sign Alberto Callaspo for $3 million

When it’s all said and done, Callaspo will finish with similar numbers of walks and strikeouts. He’s somewhat versatile and he’s decently disciplined, and the Braves had a gaping hole after dealing Tommy La Stella. The one thing Callaspo doesn’t do is hit the baseball hard enough for the baseball to notice, and it turns out that’s the kind of thing you want to be able to do if you want to sign a contract with greater terms than this contract.

Cubs sign Jason Motte for $4.5 million, with incentives

Motte was a good reliever in 2010, 2011, and 2012. Tommy John surgery cost him 2013, and upon his return in 2014, he was missing velocity and therefore effectiveness. Yet a similar thing happened to Joe Nathan in 2011 before he returned to being his old awesome self in 2012, so while the Cubs understand the obvious risk here, they have the money and Motte comes with bigger upside than most of the other affordable free-agent options.

Dodgers sign Brett Anderson for $10 million, with incentives

Tommy John surgery in 2011, rehab and an oblique strain in 2012, a foot stress fracture in 2013, and a finger fracture and a bulging disk in 2014. Anderson has thrown 206 big-league innings over the last four years, but in those 206 innings he’s been worth a combined 3.3 WAR, with good-enough peripherals, so the upside is obvious, especially if you figure things like fractures are freak accidents. Anderson isn’t 27 until February, and the Dodgers will plan for him to be their fifth starter for as long as he can remain on the mound, which is a perfectly good roll of the dice for a team that can afford to outspend almost all others.

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Update!!!

Indians sign Gavin Floyd for $4 million, with incentives

Tommy John cost Floyd much of 2013, and some of 2014. Yet last season ended due to an unrelated elbow injury, one that’s supposed to be just fine in time for spring training, and when Floyd did pitch with the Braves, he flashed a career-best 14% K-BB% and an overall somewhat average profile with undiminished stuff. The Indians were in no particular need of rotation help, but everyone’s in need of rotation depth, and Floyd will actually be the most expensive starting arm on the team.

Everybody remembers the movie Inception, right? Nice visuals, convoluted premise, and that killer score – a more than sufficient popcorn delivery system. Fun fact: the main plot point of inception, that an idea can be planted in someone’s subconscious without them realizing, is real!

At some point this summer, exasperated Texas Rangers writer/blogger/fanalyst Jamey Newberg tweeted something to the effect of “Alex Rios is one of those players whose production will never line up with his numbers.” At first, I was offended. A player produces what he produces, his numbers reflect his….production. But the thought, the idea that a player is less than his final stat line, it stayed with me. I couldn’t shake it.

Then the offseason rolled around. The crop of available outfielders is charitably described as “very much ungood” and then a bunch of guys signed. One of those signees, Nick Markakis got four years and an AAV north of $11 million, to the surprise of many. And then, piling shock on top of shock, Rios himself signed a one-year deal with the Royals for $11 million.

There are plenty of reasons to scoff at the big outfielders contract. Entering his age-34 season, Rios comes off a rough season in Texas. He produced right at replacement level in 2014, displaying a worrisome lack of power (just four home runs and a career-low .118 ISO) and he missed time with injury, as older players are wont to do.

But more than most players, Rios’ problems are matters of perception. There are many reasons to not like Rios as a player or this signing in a vacuum, all factors that I believe contribute to the shrugs and disbelief when news of his Kansas City contract broke.

Most pressing, the concern expressed by the Rangers fan above: does his production lag behind his numbers?

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