Félix Bautista has been as emblematic of and as crucial to the Orioles’ sudden breakthrough as any player. In his second major league season, the imposing 28-year-old closer — nicknamed “The Mountain” for his 6-foot-8, 285-pound physique — has emerged as one of the game’s most dominant and valuable relievers, the biggest cog in a bullpen that’s helped to prop up a wobbly rotation. Unfortunately, Bautista’s season is at the very least on hold after he left Friday night’s game with what the Orioles have called “some degree of injury” to his ulnar collateral ligament.

Facing the Rockies at Camden Yards, Bautista entered a 5-4 game in the ninth inning in search of his 34th save and his second in as many nights. He battled Jurickson Profar for six pitches before striking him out on a 101.7-mph fastball, then induced Harold Castro to ground out on a 1-0 pitch. He was one strike away from finishing off Michael Toglia when he stumbled off the mound while uncorking a 102.3-mph fastball that missed up and outside. After he called for time to recover, the sight of him flexing and squeezing his right hand prompted manager Brandon Hyde, head athletic trainer Brian Ebel, and coach José Hernández to check on him and ultimately pull him from the game.

While Danny Coulombe struck out Toglia on his first and only pitch of the night to finish the game, the sequence understandably put a damper on the Orioles’ comeback win. On Saturday, general manager Mike Elias announced that Bautista had injured his UCL and would be placed on the 15-day injured list. It’s unclear yet whether the injury — likely a sprain of the ligament, meaning some kind of tear — is severe enough to require Tommy John surgery. Read the rest of this entry »

After a week hiatus, the FanGraphs Power Rankings are back and there’s been a pretty big shakeup in the top tiers. And as we head into the final month of the season, there are plenty of exciting playoff races still up in the air.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: First, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

After the recent collapse of the Rangers, the Braves now stand alone atop these rankings. They’re on cruise control right now, with the NL East locked up and a first round bye into the divisional round all but guaranteed. They’ve won 13 of their last 16 games, with six shutouts and just 2.9 runs allowed per game during this stretch. They’ve got a huge four-game series in Los Angeles against the Dodgers this weekend that could go a long way towards determining the top seed in the NL.

No team in baseball is hotter right now than the Mariners. As recently as mid-July, they were 10 games behind Texas, but they’ve lost just five games in August and have surpassed both the Rangers and the Astros to take the division lead in the AL West. It’s the first time the M’s have led their division this late in the season since 2003. The offense that had been so frustratingly inconsistent earlier in the season has exploded this month; they’re scoring more than six runs per game and lead all of baseball with a 147 wRC+ in August.

A 4-2 record last week marked the low point of the Dodgers’ August; those two losses were just the third and fourth of the month for Los Angeles. They’re being led by two guys who are suddenly challenging Ronald Acuña Jr. in the NL MVP race: Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. The former is in the midst of the best full season of his career at the plate, in the field, and on the basepaths. Betts, meanwhile, enjoyed an emotional return to Boston this weekend and extended his hitting streak to 15 games.

After starting the month with an eight-game win streak and 12 wins in their first 14 games in August, the Rangers have been in free fall since then. A win on Saturday snapped an eight-game losing streak, but they lost an ugly, 13-inning walk-off affair in Minnesota on Sunday. That dropped them to second place in the AL West, the first time they’ve been out of the top spot since April 8. Their bullpen in particular has been a sore spot during this stretch; Texas relievers have allowed 35 runs over their last 10 games, with six blown saves.

The Orioles were dealt a serious blow when their ace closer Félix Bautista was sidelined with elbow discomfort last week. Losing a pitcher of Bautista’s caliber would be a problem for any club, but for Baltimore, it’s a tremendous loss. So much of the O’s success this season has hinged on the success of their bullpen. Their shot at the playoffs probably isn’t threatened, but their grip on the AL East division lead is suddenly a little more tenuous.

With the Mariners budging in, the fight for the AL West crown is suddenly very crowded. The Astros have played second fiddle to the Rangers all season long, but now they have a third team to contend with. The ‘Stros offense has been frustratingly inconsistent this month; they’ve had just as many games where they score nine or more runs as they’ve had games where they score two or fewer. Kyle Tucker has been a rock in the middle of their lineup, and Jose Altuve has been fantastic since returning from his thumb injury, but Yordan Alvarez has been kept in check by various maladies, and both José Abreu and Jeremy Peña have been great disappointments this year.

The Brewers won their eighth straight game on Sunday and have now extended their lead in the NL Central to four games. They have a huge series against the Cubs on the docket this week, which could go a long way towards determining how close this division race is going to be down the stretch. Milwaukee’s offense has come alive lately, scoring more than seven runs per game after notching just three total runs during the three-game sweep at the hands of the Dodgers that immediately preceded this win streak. That’s a very good sign, as run scoring has been such an issue for them during this recent competitive window.

Thanks to a floundering offense and an extremely thin pitching staff, the Giants have fallen out of Wild Card position, sitting even with Cincinnati at a game and a half back of the Diamondbacks. The depth of their roster has been strained to the breaking point by a cavalcade of injuries. They have key series against the Reds and Cubs coming up over the next two weeks, and they desperately need some positive results in those matchups to stay in the playoff picture.

Meanwhile, the roller coaster the Diamondbacks are riding is currently back on the upswing. They started the month with a nine-game losing streak, but they’ve gone 12-3 over their last 15 games to get right back into the thick of the NL Wild Card race. They just won a huge four-game series against the Reds over the weekend, one that featured one of the most dynamic single plays you’ll ever see.

The teams in this tier are tangibly better than those in the tier below, but they’ve either fallen out of the playoff picture or are such long shots that they fit better as a potential spoiler than a true contender. The Padres exemplify this contrast; they’re underlying team quality is solid but they’re just too far back in the NL Wild Card race to truly make a run at it. Of course, being a good team that isn’t really good enough has plenty of rough implications for their future. The talent on their roster looked dominant on paper, but the actual results on the field have been disappointing to say the least. After getting swept by the Brewers over the weekend, you can probably put a pin in San Diego’s slim postseason hopes.

Speaking of teams at a crossroads, a 2-12 record over the last few weeks has sunk whatever last hopes the Yankees had of making a postseason run this year. If things keep going this way, they’ll finish in last place in the AL East for the first time since 1990; it would be their first losing season since 1992. To make matters worse, their future outlook seems pretty bleak unless they’re able to miraculously fill their aging roster with young talent. For the first time in nearly three decades, the Yanks are facing the decision to rebuild, or at least reset, their roster.

As if things weren’t bad enough for the Angels, Shohei Ohtani injured his UCL last week and is done pitching for the season (and perhaps next season, too, depending on the severity of the tear). That same day, they placed Mike Trout back on the IL after he played in just a single game thanks to renewed discomfort in his left hand. Los Angeles was already well out of the playoff picture thanks to a ghastly 7-17 record in August, but depriving baseball of two of its greatest talents is a tragedy.

In the midst of another lost season, the Tigers finally have something to give them a shred of hope: the breakouts of Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter. After a really rough introduction to the big leagues, the former first overall pick is finally close to living up to the hype surrounding his draft selection and ascent through the minor leagues. Meanwhile, Carpenter’s emergence has largely flown under the radar, but he’s been Detroit’s best hitter since getting called up last August. The Tigers have plenty of work left to do before breaking out of this rebuild cycle, but those two hitters give them another pair of building blocks to work with.

Things finally came to a head for White Sox executive vice president Kenny Williams and general manager Rick Hahn last week. The architects of the team for nearly two decades, both were fired from their roles, as Chicago has squandered a bunch of young talent over the past few years. The White Sox will head into next year in search of a new direction, though with Jerry Reinsdorf still in place as the team’s owner, it remains to be seen how different of a course they can chart.

…

Throughout the 2019 postseason, the Washington Nationals made a habit of using their entire margin of error. They needed a three-run, last-ditch rally to get out of the Wild Card game, then another 11th-hour comeback to get past the Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLDS. Dave Martinez tried to shorten his pitching staff as much as possible, a desperation move that’s backfired on manager after manager as long as there have been playoffs.

By the time Game 6 of the World Series rolled around, the Nationals were facing elimination once again. They’d lost three straight to the 107-win Astros and needed to beat Justin Verlander on the road to stay alive. Patrick Corbin had been run ragged. Max Scherzer’s body had locked up to the point where he couldn’t dress himself. Martinez had already gambled with the likes of Tanner Rainey and Wander Suero more than anyone was comfortable with.

Then Stephen Strasburg stepped up and did something you don’t see pitchers do much anymore. He handled it.

After a rocky first inning, Strasburg kept the irrepressible Astros offense off the board into the ninth. The Nats once again scored bunches of runs late, and the next evening they were hoisting the proverbial piece of metal. Read the rest of this entry »

John Michael Bertrand is an under-the-radar pitching prospect with multi-sport bloodlines and a good backstory. Moreover, he’s performing above expectations in his first full professional season. Drafted in the 10th round last year by the San Francisco Giants out of the University of Notre Dame, the 25-year-old left-hander is 10-5 with a 3.17 ERA in 99-and-a-third innings across three levels. Bertrand began the campaign at Low-A San Jose and has since progressed to High-A Eugene and Double-A Richmond.

Growing up in Alpharetta, Georgia, the 6-foot-3, 225-pound hurler aspired to play college basketball, but it eventually became apparent that baseball would provide him with the better long-term opportunity. The decision proved prudent, but only after a bumpy beginning. Bertrand’s Blessed Trinity School prep days were followed by a pair of disappointments that might easily have ended his career before it even started.

“I went to the University of Dayton for a camp, and they told me that I didn’t throw hard enough,” Bertrand explained. “I was around 82 [mph] and had a loopy curveball, so it was basically, ‘Thank you for your time.’ After that, my guidance counselor suggested Furman [University]. It was closer to home, and purple happened to be my favorite color, so I was like, ‘Perfect, I’ll go.’ I walked on to their baseball team, but ended up getting cut my first fall. The coaches told me that I wasn’t good enough to play Division One baseball.”

Undeterred, and more determined than ever, Bertrand decided that not only would he return the following year and make the team, he intended to go on to play professionally. As he put it, ‘God kind of called me to go back to that campus and work even harder.’ That started that train, started my journey.” Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about how late it is in the season and a fan’s exuberant reaction to the only known unassisted outfield triple play in major or minor league history, answer listener emails (15:17) about Shohei Ohtani 2.0 and whether “bulk guys” could stave off extinction for 300-game winners, Stat Blast (38:11) about standings-related fun facts, precedents for the Mariners rapidly erasing a 10-game deficit in the AL West, team droughts in back-to-back-to-belly homers, non-All-Star MVPs, bunting by count, this season’s uptick in balks, Gunnar Henderson and the passing-up-the-cycle club, and a wild pitch/passed ball mystery, plus a Future Blast from 2051 (1:49:48) and a few follow-ups (1:52:30).

Audio intro: Beatwriter, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Alex Ferrin, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to MLBTR on Brentz
Link to Craig on the triple play
Link to Pages From Baseball’s Past
Link to ITYSL
Link to Ringer ITYSL ranking
Link to listener emails database
Link to Sam on Ruth/Ohtani
Link to story on Ohtani MRI
Link to Ben on Yarbrough
Link to “bulk guy” origin story
Link to story on Verlander and 300
Link to Evan’s team streaks data
Link to last-place NYY/NYM
Link to thread on Yanks 10-loss streak
Link to Ben on competitive balance
Link to EW Episode 1354
Link to ALW division odds graph
Link to 1982 Braves doc
Link to team HR streaks data
Link to Ryan Nelson on Twitter
Link to Marlins 3-HR game
Link to team 4-HR streaks
Link to Ben on Padres stars
Link to non-All-Star MVPs
Link to bunt data
Link to Belt bunt attempt
Link to McGuire bunt
Link to Grisham bunt attempt
Link to Rojas bunt
Link to team balk leaders
Link to league balk totals
Link to WP/PB/balks data
Link to Rob Mains on ’88 balks
Link to ’88 article on balks
Link to 2023 article on balks
Link to skipped cycles data
Link to Henderson post
Link to Henderson video
Link to Henderson game story
Link to story on Fuld
Link to list of Gunnar games
Link to 2001 Frye story
Link to Frye tweet
Link to Foxx’s cycle game
Link to 1933 cycle citation
Link to Ben on sticky stuff
Link to WP/PB totals
Link to Cooper on one-knee catching
Link to Cooper on one-knee catching 2
Link to Cooper on one-knee catching 3
Link to WaPo on the 2022 ball
Link to game-reenactment EW email
Link to Russ Hodges call
Link to Rick Wilber’s website
Link to Future Blast wiki
Link to Strasburg salary report
Link to Passan violations tweet

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley lament and discuss Shohei Ohtani’s UCL injury and its ramifications for the rest of his season, his two-way future, his free agency, the Angels, and the continued happiness of baseball fans and podcast co-hosts, followed by conversations about Stephen Strasburg’s retirement (59:17), Wander Franco’s placement on administrative leave (1:11:30), and whether players are required to wear pants (1:21:06), plus a Future Blast from 2050 (1:31:37).

Audio intro: Ted O., “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Ian H., “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Ben’s Ohtani article
Link to Evan Drellich on Ohtani
Link to Jay Jaffe on the Angels
Link to Sam on the Angels
Link to FA class
Link to Ohtani and Elly
Link to TJS study
Link to Stat Blast on max-effort pitching
Link to Ben on pitcher roster limits
Link to WaPo report on Strasburg
Link to Drellich on Franco
Link to Jeff Passan on Franco
Link to Jay Cuda pants tweet
Link to CBA
Link to high-socks study
Link to Rick Wilber’s website
Link to Future Blast wiki

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Twitter Account
 EW Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

You’re going to hear a lot about the Braves over the next couple months. They’re the best team in baseball, and that’s how it goes. Some of you are Braves fans, so getting to see more of your favorite team in October will just be one more drop of good news in a season filled up to the brim with happy headlines. But for those of you who are indifferent or ambivalent toward the Braves, for those of you who loathe them in your very core, I have a little treat. That’s all this article is: a treat to bring a bit more fun to the wall-to-wall coverage awaiting us all.

On Tuesday night, Daniel Vogelbach homered to straightaway center field and Michael Harris II attempted to rob it. Harris tried very hard, and I went back and watched the replay to see exactly how close he came to making the play. However, after watching a few times, my attention shifted. I kept rewinding because I noticed that something was sticking out of Harris’ glove and flapping like the tongue of a golden retriever:

That’s the little positioning card that tells Harris where to stand for each batter. Those cheat sheets are a small part of the revolution in outfield positioning that has hammered BABIP league-wide over the last several years. Your local sports outlet probably wrote about the phenomenon when these cards started appearing back in 2018, but at this point they’re old hat (especially for the Yankees, who literally kept the cards in their hats). Read the rest of this entry »

The White Sox are going to miss the playoffs in the AL Central, which is the baseball equivalent of failing driver’s ed. It’s disappointing but not particularly surprising; since winning the World Series in 2005, the Sox have made the postseason just three times and won a grand total of three games across all of those trips.

Shockingly, the White Sox have enjoyed remarkable front office continuity over that time. For most of the 21st century, the duo of Kenny Williams and Rick Hahn, in some combination of titles, was running the show. I say “was” because, as you well know, Williams and Hahn were fired on Tuesday.

There’s no structural reason the White Sox can’t be successful. They have history and branding half the league would kill for. They play in the third-largest media market in the U.S., and though they share it with a richer and more popular neighbor, if Houston and Philadelphia and Toronto can spend enough to put out a winning team, so can the White Sox. Most important, they play in the easiest division in baseball, where the last-place club in the AL East would have a decent shot at winning the division.

They’re also lucky enough to have an owner, Jerry Reinsdorf, who cares whether the team wins. Not every team can say the same. Unfortunately, Reinsdorf seems to care how the White Sox win. Read the rest of this entry »

Another week, another jam-packed baseball schedule. The biggest story of the week, no doubt, is Shohei Ohtani’s torn UCL, the most profound baseball-related bummer of the year in my opinion. Ohtani is such a globe-spanning superstar that news of this magnitude will naturally overshadow the rest of what’s going on in the sport. But I’m not here to mope. Like Zach Lowe and his seminal Ten Things basketball column, we’re here to celebrate some little oddities. So let’s get down to business. This week’s column is filled with delightful weirdness, and delightfully odd teams, to offset the Ohtani sadness. Do you like bunts? Do you like the Marlins doing weird stuff? Do you like baserunning adventures and underdogs taking on bullies? Then read on, because this column has all of that and more. Read the rest of this entry »

The news last night out of Anaheim landed like a punch to the gut of every reasonable baseball fan: Shohei Ohtani has a torn ulnar collateral ligament and at the very least is done pitching for the season, thus ending perhaps the greatest campaign we’ve ever seen. And in a double whammy that shouldn’t be dismissed, the team announced that Mike Trout is heading back to the injured list after playing just one game following a seven-week absence due to a fractured left hamate that required surgery.

Set aside the money for a moment; obviously this carries ramifications for Ohtani’s upcoming payday, which I’ll get to below. And forget the playoffs. The Angels went all-in in advance of the August 1 trade deadline but have gone an unfathomable 5-16 this month, plummeting out of the AL Wild Card race like an anvil without a parachute. Their Playoff Odds were already down to 0.3% before they were swept by the Reds in a bleak doubleheader on Wednesday. Even if Ohtani and Trout had both played at their peaks over the season’s final 34 games, the team’s fate was sealed. Read the rest of this entry »