Let’s start this article with a bold claim: Wander Franco’s first two seasons in the majors were a disappointment. That’s a startling assertion, even if it might not seem that way at first. Franco hit .282/.337/.439, good for a 121 wRC+, while playing league average defense at shortstop; he was 20 years old for the first of those seasons. He played at a 4.3 WAR per 600 PA clip, which the FanGraphs glossary helpfully notes is an All-Star level. That’s all true. For the best prospect of the past decade, though, it still feels like a letdown.

The real thing that has betrayed Franco is playing time. First for nebulous service time reasons, then due to injury, his first two seasons in the majors were both as brief as they were scintillating. He appeared in 70 games in 2021 and 83 in 2022. His counting stats weren’t exactly imposing: 13 homers, 10 steals, and a mere 72 RBI if you’re playing fantasy baseball. I acknowledge that considering that performance a disappointment is grading on a curve, but when you’re as good and hyped as Franco is, that comes with the territory.

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, it’s time for the good news: that perception is as stale as the sourdough I bought last Wednesday and didn’t finish (hey, there’s a good bagel shop nearby, and I’m only human). Franco isn’t a young up-and-comer this year. He’s a bona fide star, one of the best hitters in baseball so far and the best player on the best team. It’s only a matter of time before your marginally-baseball-following friends start asking you if you’ve heard about this Wander guy. So allow me to present a gift to you as a baseball fan who wants to sound smart to their friends, a guide to why Franco is one of the best players in baseball and what he changed to get there. Read the rest of this entry »

Max Muncy’s career has had its ups and downs in recent years… or steps forwards and backwards, depending upon which plane you prefer for directional metaphors. Lately the slugger has been on a home run binge, one involving a mechanical tweak — a slight step backwards with his left foot at the start of his swing — that he adopted last year and then briefly abandoned this spring.

This weekend, Muncy took over the major league lead in home runs with 11. He went yard four times during the Dodgers’ four-game visit to Wrigley Field from Thursday through Sunday, starting the festivities with a solo shot off starter Javier Assad on Thursday night, adding a pair of late-inning blasts off Mark Leiter Jr. and Brad Boxberger on Saturday (the first of those a two-run homer), and capping his weekend with a two-run drive off Marcus Stroman on Sunday. The last of those gave the Dodgers the lead and helped them take three games out of four from the Cubs.

Muncy’s hot streak didn’t just begin last Thursday; it’s been going on for two weeks. After homering just once while going 4-for-33 in his first nine games, he bookended a three-game series at Oracle Park with a pair of two-homer games, then homered in losing causes in series openers against the Cubs and Mets at Dodger Stadium. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

The St. Louis Cardinals have scuffled in the early going. Even after a win against the Mariners on Sunday, their record stands at a paltry 9-13. Through the weekend, their 2.2-win dip in projected win total has been the sixth-largest decrease since the season began, and among serious contenders, their performance looks even worse: the Cards’ 22.2% decrease in divisional odds has been the league’s largest, bypassing the second-place Yankees (-19.3%), who’ve had to deal with the Rays’ historic start. Further, the Cardinals’ 18.6% drop in playoff odds is second only to the White Sox (-20.1%), who’ve played even worse at 7-15. But what’s plaguing the Redbirds?

We knew that their starting pitching was a weakness coming into the season, and it’s been even worse than advertised. We pegged their starting staff as the 20th-best during our positional power rankings, and they’re 26th in both ERA and WAR, and aren’t much better by FIP (24th), even after a stellar Sunday performance from Jack Flaherty. Though we anticipated his absence at the time, perhaps we underestimated the impact that Adam Wainwright’s early-season injury recovery would have on the staff as a whole. Nevertheless, the Cards’ pitching woes have been within our margin for error. On the other hand, their lack of outfield production has been more surprising.

Going from left to right field, we ranked the Cards 15th, eighth, and ninth in our positional power rankings. Their outfield bats have been solid if unspectacular thus far, with their 104 wRC+ tying for 13th in the league. Yet, their defense has dragged them down: by OAA, UZR, and DRS, they tie for 25th, have sole possession of 26th, and are in a four-way tie for 23rd, respectively. That all adds up to a WAR figure of just 0.3, good (or bad) for 21st in the league. Read the rest of this entry »

Pete Alonso is a specialist. He’s not one of those boring types, though: defensive replacement, pinch-runner, long reliever, LOOGY, the list goes on and on. He’s the kind of specialist that every team would take more of: a home run specialist. You might not notice it, because every star hitter is seemingly also a slugger these days, but Alonso isn’t like the rest of them. He’s out there for the home runs, and everything else about his game simply works in support of that.

That’s a vague statement, but I really think it’s true. To me, there’s no player in baseball today who is a more pure home run hitter. Given that we play in one of the homer-happiest eras in baseball history, and that players today train harder than at any point in the past, he might be the best home run hitter of all time.

Let’s start with a simple fact: since Alonso debuted in 2019, no one has hit more home runs. He’s 13 homers clear of Aaron Judge in second place, with a whopping 156. This isn’t a case of a pile of extra-base hits with some going over the wall, either. Of the top 15 homer hitters in that span, only Judge has a higher proportion of home runs as a share of all extra-base hits. Alonso isn’t up there spraying balls into the gap; he’s up there trying to give fans souvenirs:

Read the rest of this entry »

It was a week of highs and lows as the Rays continued to dominate early this season while the A’s took their first of many steps out of Oakland. Just a reminder that because we’re still so early in the season, we’ll see some pretty wild swings in the rankings below as teams continue to sort themselves out.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Rays continued their hot start to the season, winning five of their six games last week; they still haven’t lost a game at home this year. The amount of depth on their roster means that even when their fantastic middle infield duo, Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe, starts to struggle — they collected just six hits between them last week — there’s someone like Harold Ramírez hitting instead (nine hits, two home runs). They’ll face a tough challenge in a surging Astros ballclub this week.

The Rangers vaulted themselves into this top tier by beating up on the Royals and A’s last week. So far, they’ve weathered the loss of Corey Seager to a hamstring injury behind the hot bats of Marcus Semien, Adolis García, and Jonah Heim. They’re also getting plenty of help from their pitching staff. Their rotation is fully healthy; Jacob deGrom had an injury scare on Monday after leaving his start after just four innings with a wrist issue but looked dominant against the A’s. But the biggest surprise has been their bullpen, which has the third-lowest ERA in the majors.

It’s shocking to see three NL Central clubs in this tier but not the Cardinals. The hot starts of the Brewers, Cubs, and Pirates are backed up by the underlying data: All three teams are hitting well, pitching well, and possess a run differential of at least +25. Cody Bellinger exacted some revenge against his former team, blasting two home runs off Dodgers pitching over the weekend, and Drew Smyly came within six outs of throwing a perfect game against Los Angeles on Friday.

While the Cubs and Brewers have looked impressive, the Pirates are turning heads. They swept the Rockies in Colorado and the Reds at home, allowing no more than three runs in any of their seven games last week, and now sit atop the division. Led by David Bednar, their bullpen has been lights out, while their rotation has gotten breakout performances from Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo. They’ve got a tough schedule ahead with dates against the Dodgers, Rays, and Blue Jays over the next two weeks. We’ll see if they’re up to the challenge.

The Astros seem to have broken out of their funk, winning two of three from the Blue Jays and sweeping the Braves in Atlanta last week. They’re still missing Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, and Lance McCullers Jr., and José Abreu isn’t hitting for power, but they’ve had unexpected contributions up and down their lineup, like Mauricio Dubón, who is filling in for Altuve at second base admirably with a 108 wRC+ and solid defense. Houston’s next task: slow down the Rays this week.

The Mets just wrapped up a 7–3 West Coast road trip, sweeping the A’s, winning two of three from the Dodgers, and splitting four games with the Giants. Despite that successful California swing, they couldn’t avoid stepping on their own toes. Max Scherzer was ejected from his start on Thursday after violating the sticky stuff prohibitions and accepted his 10-game suspension despite maintaining his innocence, but his absence puts New York in a bit of a precarious position. The rotation is already missing Justin Verlander, Carlos Carrasco, and José Quintana; the team will need to call up someone to take Scherzer’s place for the next two weeks.

There was a fleeting glimpse of what the Angels could be on Sunday afternoon. Losing to the Royals 2–1 entering the sixth inning, Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, and Shohei Ohtani launched back-to-back-to-back home runs to put Los Angeles ahead for good. There’s been very little of that kind of offense for the Angels this year; Trout is crushing the ball like usual, but Ohtani has been much better on the mound than at the plate, and Ward had been mired in a slump. Hunter Renfroe has been very good too, but the rest of the lineup just hasn’t carried its weight, and now it’ll be without Logan O’Hoppe for multiple months after he injured his shoulder.

The Twins locked up the most impressive member of their major league-best starting rotation last Monday, signing Pablo López to a four-year deal. Alongside hot starts from Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, they have enjoyed some phenomenal performances from their starters. Unfortunately, their offense has yet to start clicking despite a bounce back from Joey Gallo. Carlos Correa is off to a particularly slow start, and Byron Buxton hasn’t tapped into the prodigious power he displayed last year. They did just activate Jorge Polanco off the IL and Alex Kirilloff shouldn’t be far behind. Perhaps those two will provide the spark to build some distance in the AL Central standings.

After allowing seven runs in three innings, ballooning his ERA up to 10.26, the Diamondbacks designated Madison Bumgarner for assignment on Thursday. They’re eating the remaining $34 million owed to him over the next two years, but his deteriorating performance was too harmful to a team that’s looking to turn a corner this year. Arizona was leading the NL West for most of last week until losing three of four to the Padres over the weekend. Zac Gallen, though, is putting together another long scoreless streak, running it to 21.2 innings after his start on Friday night, and the D-Backs have got a number of young pitching prospects in the high minors they could call on to replace Bumgarner.

The Giants have struggled through a rough start to the season despite a decent run differential. A pair of walk-off losses in Detroit were unfortunate, and they’ve only won a single series this year. But they’re getting good performances from players like LaMonte Wade Jr. and Thairo Estrada, and Mitch Haniger, one of their key offseason acquisitions, is close to making his season debut. They also signed Logan Webb to a five-year extension last Friday, a significant vote of confidence in his ability to lead the pitching staff.

The vibes are rough on the South Side of Chicago. The White Sox haven’t won a series this year and were just swept by the Rays over the weekend, including two ugly walk-off losses. Things aren’t going to get any easier either with a trip to Toronto this week before another series against the Rays and then the Twins after that. With Tim Anderson and Yoán Moncada still on the IL, the offense has had trouble getting started, but Chicago’s biggest problem has been a pitching staff that’s allowed the second most runs in the American League.

It feels cruel to continue to highlight the woes of the Athletics in this space, but they’ve played historically bad baseball. To make matters even worse, their ownership group announced that it had signed a binding agreement to purchase land in Las Vegas for a new stadium. There’s still so much up in the air before the franchise packs its bags for the desert, but this is the first concrete step that owner John Fisher and president Dave Kaval have made toward moving the team away from Oakland. It’s a dark time to be an A’s fan.

…

On Sunday afternoon, a friend of mine was straight up not having a good time watching his favorite baseball team. The Phillies, defending NL champions and consensus favorites to return to the playoffs this year, were losing to the Rockies. They’d already done that once this weekend and are heading into the last week of April under .500. So he came up with an interesting theory: With so many players leaving Phillies camp to play in the World Baseball Classic, perhaps the interruption in spring training had a deleterious effect on the team’s preparation and/or chemistry.

Then he asked me if I knew of anyone who’d studied the issue. I said no and almost let the matter drop right there. Looking at the statistical leaderboards, playing in the WBC didn’t throw Shohei Ohtani off his schwerve. (Or Ronald Acuña Jr., or Randy Arozarena, or Xander Bogaerts)

Most of all, there are more direct explanations for the Phillies’ slow start: Bryce Harper is hurt, they’re down to something like their fourth-string first baseman, and there’s a specific Phillies fan who’s done something to anger the baseball gods and call down their wrath. His name is Nick, he lives in Christiana, Delaware, and the baseball gods will not relent until he is found and sacrificed upon a stone altar. Hurry, there’s no time to lose. Read the rest of this entry »

Mark Gubicza was a good starting pitcher. Making all but two of his 384 big-league appearances with the Kansas City Royals, the big right-hander logged 132 wins to go with a 3.96 ERA, 42 complete games, and 16 shutouts. His best season came in 1988 when he went 20-8 with a 2.70 ERA and finished third in A.L. Cy Young balloting.

Gubicza also had two saves, both of them in 1993. That was the year he gained a true appreciation for how challenging it is to protect a late-inning lead for a teammate. How he came work out of the bullpen — something he did sparingly outside of that one season — was a matter of circumstance.

“We didn’t have a bridge to get from our starters to Jeff Montgomery,” explained Gubicza, who now serves as a TV analyst for the Angels. “The year before, my shoulder was a little sketchy, so [manager] Hal McRae asked me if I could be the bridge. At first I was hesitant, because I liked starting. But I was building back my arm strength, so I said, ‘You know what? I’ll do whatever it takes to win games. I’ll be that bridge to get to Jeff Montgomery.”

The transition was initially bumpy. Gubicza’s heart would start racing when the bullpen phone rang, and once he began warming, he would be throwing as hard as he could. Moreover, while adrenaline was telling him that he was ready, his stuff wasn’t ready. Much for those reasons, he took his lumps before figuring out what worked for him in the unfamiliar role. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the podcast’s semi-official new nickname for Yandy Díaz, what Mookie Betts playing shortstop says about the Dodgers, and Andrew McCutchen’s hot start, then (15:29) answer emails about the Reds’ many mascots, why we stop at “Quadruple-A,” how good today’s 26th men would be if they traveled back in time, sticky stuff on a tacky ball, and whether MLB would ever privatize publicly accessible Statcast data, followed (47:48) by a Stat Blast about Ross Stripling and the ultimate swingmen, the longest identical sequences of team wins and losses, and whether working the count to get pitchers out of games is still all it’s cracked up to be, plus a recap (1:23:03) of the first time the A’s played MLB games in Las Vegas and a Past Blast (1:30:27) from 1997.

Audio intro: Benny and the Jeffs, “Effectively Wild”
Audio outro: Jacket Thor, “My Patron Saint”

Link to FG post on Mookie
Link to Mookie’s play at short
Link to Eric Stephen on Mookie
Link to Smyly/Gomes play
Link to MLB mascots wiki
Link to Reds mascots page
Link to Ben on Triple-A strength
Link to Clay D. on league strength
Link to Ben on caliber of play
Link to MLBTR on pre-tacked balls
Link to Topps NOW cards
Link to Seinfeld clip
Link to Stripling on EW
Link to MLBTR on Stripling
Link to Slusser tweet about Stripling
Link to swingmen GS/GR ratio
Link to Ryan Nelson on Twitter
Link to travelling salesman problem
Link to Graham’s tweet
Link to Turner’s quotes
Link to Tango on 3-2 counts
Link to article on pitch counts/TTOP
Link to WP when SP doesn’t go 5
Link to 2018 opener article
Link to 1996 articles on A’s in Vegas
Link to Cashman Field wiki
Link to 1997 Past Blast source
Link to NYT on radical realignment
Link to Tribune on radical realignment
Link to Grant on radical realignment
Link to B-Ref on radical realignment
Link to Hendriks announcement

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