After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays.

Batters

Which team in baseball has the best middle infield? I imagine most fans would likely say the Rangers (Corey Seager and Marcus Semien) or the Padres (Fernando Tatis Jr. and mostly Jake Cronenworth). The Rays are another possible answer, though. Wander Franco’s very quickly become a star, and Brandon Lowe is my pick for the most underrated second baseman in the game. I talked quite a lot about Franco’s outlook when he he signed his big ol’ contract extension, so I won’t rehash that here. Confusingly, Lowe wasn’t even one of the American League’s four Silver Slugger finalists at second base in 2021, as his .863 OPS apparently wasn’t up to the standards of DJ LeMahieu (.711 OPS, about half his games not at second). I would be surprised if the best middle infield came from a team other than these three. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2022 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

For the sake of diplomacy, we’ll call A.J. Pierzynski a polarizing player, even if much of that polarization tended towards the negative end of the spectrum. “If you play against him, you hate him,” said his own manager Ozzie Guillen in 2006, the year after Pierzynski served as the starting catcher for the World Series-winning White Sox. “If you play with him, you hate him a little less.”

Pierzynski spent parts of 19 seasons in the majors provoking extreme reactions among players, fans, and everyone else, that while making two All-Star teams, helping five teams to the playoffs, and catching more games than all but eight other backstops. A November 2013 article by NESN’s Ricky Doyle, at a point just a few weeks before the defending champion Red Sox signed him as a free agent, summarized the book on Pierzynski to that point:

The most obvious risk of signing Pierzynski involves his accompanying baggage. There’s a difference between having a colorful personality and having a personality that evokes disdain, and Pierzynski’s behavior seemingly strikes a chord. According to an August 2012 article on SI.com, Pierzynski has in his career been voted by his opponents as the player they would most like to see beaned (2006), baseball’s meanest player (2011) and baseball’s most hated player (2012). Men’s Journal polled 100 MLB players on various topics in 2012, and 34 percent of respondents voted Pierzynski the most hated player in the game.

“Everyone wants a villain,” Pierzynski told SI.com’s Ben Reiter in the aforementioned profile. Reiter was able to penetrate the persona to find an introspective, intelligent and hard-working player, not to mention a devoted family man. “Look at what LeBron James has gone through the past few years. My teammates get the best kick of it,” Pierzynski continued. “When we go to Oakland, Anaheim, San Francisco, Minnesota, Cleveland, I get loud boos. Guys on my team can’t wait to see that and to hear that… Now, when those polls come out, it’d be a big upset if somebody else won.” Read the rest of this entry »

Writing about baseball isn’t the most predictable task. I often don’t know what my topic will be until the dust settles, hours after rummaging through a pile of numbers that, at first glance, makes little sense. For example, this article started off as an inquiry into Darin Ruf. Of all the journeymen to stop by the KBO, experience a resurgence, and return stateside, he’s by far enjoying the greatest success – who would have guessed?

As a right-handed hitter, Ruf’s primary asset is a knack for mashing lefty pitchers. He can hold his own against righty pitchers, too, posting a 126 wRC+ against them last season. But detractors might point to a .386 BABIP that buoyed much of that production. In other words, one could expect Ruf to become a bit more… rough in the future (sorry). A quick search reveals that he had a higher groundball rate against righties compared to lefties, which doesn’t bode well for future success, and not much else. The critics win this round.

Here’s the thing, though – he wasn’t alone. It turns out that in 2021, right-handed hitters had a higher groundball rate against right-handed pitchers; conversely, they had a lower groundball rate against left-handed pitchers. You can see for yourself:

This is also true of left-handed hitters. Facing same-handed pitchers led to more groundballs, while opposite-handed pitchers led to, well, the opposite. The gap in groundball rate by pitcher handedness is greater for lefty hitters, though that may be influenced by the relatively few instances of lefty-versus-lefty matchups. Still, the difference, which appears on a league-wide scale, is significant enough to warrant an investigation. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets.

Batters

It feels a little weird to be optimistic about the Mets after the season they just had (or perhaps because the Mets are one of the world’s most powerful pessimism-inducing entities). But when I look at the offense, there’s just not that much to complain about. None of Starling Marte, Mark Canha, or Eduardo Escobar are superstars — though Marte comes close at times — but signing that trio really improved how the lineup looks going into 2022. The team has a credible backup at most positions and even some upper minors depth (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and, if you believe Steamer rather than ZiPS, Khalil Lee) they can use if the need arises. Read the rest of this entry »

The week before Christmas, I conducted an investigation into the Giants’ strange sinker-ballers. Logan Webb and Alex Wood enjoyed spectacular years, and they both did it using sinkers they released from a low starting point, which created a unique look for batters.

You probably didn’t read that article, and that’s okay. It was the peak of the holiday season. You were likely out in the world like me – seeing family, drinking eggnog-flavored coffee beverages, and generally making up for last year. My consumption of baseball media went way down, and I do this for a living.

As a self-interested person, I suggest you go back and read that article. I thought it was pretty good! More importantly, though, I’ve been doing more research into what the heck a “flat sinker” even is. The concept just doesn’t fit into my brain, and when that happens, I like to hit myself over the head with data until something clicks. So today, please enjoy some random things I’ve researched while trying to understand why in the world “flat” (approach angle) and “sinker” (pitch type) coexist. Read the rest of this entry »

When Buster Posey announced his retirement in early November, my first thought was something along the lines of “Fantastic career; he’ll be getting my vote when he becomes Hall of Fame eligible in five years.” Looking back, that initial reaction actually undersold just how dominant Posey was over his 12-year career.

A few days ago, I shared the following on social media:

Best catchers in baseball history: 1. Mickey Cochrane, 2. Johnny Bench, 3. Josh Gibson, 4. Yogi Berra, 5. Gary Carter, 6. Ivan Rodriguez.

Your opinion of that ranking aside, a follower proceeded to ask for my opinion of Posey. That prompted me to compare the 34-year-old’s career to that of Cochrane, who likewise was done at a relatively-early age. Cochrane played his last game shortly after his 34th birthday, an errant Bump Hadley pitch — this in the days before hitters wore helmets — having fractured his skull and rendered him unconscious for 10 days. Coincidentally or not, Cochrane had taken Hadley deep in his previous at bat.

Cochrane played from 1925-1937 — a high-offense era — and finished his career with an eye-popping .320/.419/.478 slash line. Perusing our WAR leaderboard for that baker’s-dozen stretch, you’ll find Cochrane sandwiched between Rogers Hornsby and Tony Lazzeri. In 1947, Cochrane became the first catcher voted into the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA.

Cochrane played in 1,482 games. Posey played in 1,371 games. How do they otherwise compare? Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley continue their “Measuring the Unmeasurable” series about studying difficult-to-quantify aspects of the sport by bringing on Rob Mains of Baseball Prospectus to banter about ESPN’s new Sunday Night Baseball broadcasting plans and discuss Rob’s studies about competitive balance, team mobility and inequality, starter vs. reliever performance, the magnitude and history of the times-through-the-order penalty, the universal DH, injuries, and more. Then (50:25) they bring on the pseudonymous author of research blog Hareeb’s Hangout to talk about the potential pitfalls of baseball analysis, how baseball analysis compares to esports analysis, his history of betting on baseball, his studies on the cause of the TTOP, reliever sequencing, valuing closers, and the difficulty of fielding pulled balls, the proprietary data he wishes he had, and his recent research interests.

Audio intro: Neko Case, “Bracing for Sunday”
Audio interstitial: Math and Physics Club, “All the Mains Are Down”
Audio outro: The Muffs, “Where Did I Go Wrong”

Link to ESPN SNB press release
Link to Rodger Sherman on the Manning broadcast
Link to The Press Box on the Manning broadcast
Link to Jason Benetti Nerdcast tweet
Link to Rob on pitching to contact
Link to Rob on small-market teams
Link to Rob on relievers vs. starters
Link to Craig Edwards on relievers vs. starters
Link to Travis Sawchik on relievers vs. starters
Link to Rob on pitching and payrolls
Link to Rob on the times-through-the-order penalty
Link to Rob on the TTOP again
Link to Rob on 2021 injuries
Link to Rob on the DH and interleague play
Link to Rob on the universal DH
Link to Rob on team mobility and inequality
Link to Rob on 2021 mobility inequality
Link to post on Rocket League and pitcher velocity
Link to post on Rocket League viewership
Link to second post on Rocket League viewership
Link to MTG Arena post
Link to post on regression and linear weights
Link to second post on regression/linear weights
Link to study on the TTOP
Link to other study on the TTOP
Link to study on repertoire and the TTOP
Link to study on reliever sequencing
Link to BP piece on reliever sequencing
Link to study on Wins Above Average Closer
Link to study on pulling the ball
Link to Tango’s response to study
Link to Tango on playing center vs. corners
Link to Eno Sarris on playing outfield corners
Link to Mike Petriello on outfielders and spin

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2:01	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of 2022. We’ve got a few inches of snow in Brooklyn from last night but against the odds, the kiddo is in school for the first time since December 17, the last time I chatted.

2:02	Jay Jaffe: Today I’ve got my third entry from among the one-and-done candidates on the Hall of Fame ballot, Ryan Howard https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot-ryan…

2:04

Jay Jaffe: this completes a trilogy of first basemen who won the Home Run Derby and made several All-Star teams before their careers were indelibly altered by injuries. Prince Fielder (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot-prin…) and Justin Morneau (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot-prin…) preceded Howard. The explainer for my actual Hall of Fame ballot, which went into the mail on December 30, is here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffes-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot/

2:05	Jay Jaffe: Anyhoo, there’s not a lot going on besides Hall stuff given the lockout, so that will be the primary focus of this chat

2:07	Jay Jaffe: He’d be a candidate for the Golden Days Era Committee ballot, and the good news is that a whole lot of space just opened up there, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Past HOF ballot results probably play too big an impact in determining who gets first crack at making those ballots.

Read the rest of this entry »