“Doing the little things right” is an overused cliché in baseball. In its yearning for sacrifice bunts, productive outs, and pitching to contact, it’s one that doesn’t typically go well with the analytical thinking common to this website. But there’s still no better characterization for what Martín Maldonado did in the fifth inning of Game 5 than that very cliché. He did the little things right; in fact, what he did was rather ingenious.

In the early portion of Sunday night’s back-and-forth affair, the Astros erased a four-run deficit but found themselves behind yet again after Freddie Freeman went yard in the bottom of the third. Just two innings later, though, they would take the lead for good. Their half of the fifth went like this: A single by Carlos Correa, a strikeout of Yordan Alvarez, a single by Yuli Gurriel, and then a groundout by Kyle Tucker. With two outs, that left runners on second and third for Alex Bregman, who had been moved down in the order as a result of recent struggles. A.J. Minter and the Braves wanted no part of him nonetheless, not with Maldonado on deck; he seemed like the best matchup by far.

Even in retrospect, the Braves would clearly make the same move again. Maldonado is a career .212/.290/.348 hitter, and over 426 plate appearances with the Astros this season, all three legs of the slash were even worse than that: .172/.272/.300. This postseason, he’s been invisible offensively: .114/.184/.114. Put simply, he is not a threat at the plate. But in the highest-leverage moment of a World Series elimination game, he came through. With the bases now loaded after the intentional free pass, Maldonado walked. Read the rest of this entry »

Colt Keith exceeded even his own expectations this season. A fifth-round pick in the 2020 draft out of a Biloxi, Mississippi high school, the left-handed hitting Detroit Tigers prospect began his first professional campaign in the Florida Complex League, and he finished it in High-A with the West Michigan Whitecaps. Promoted to the higher-than-expected level less than three weeks after his 20th birthday, Keith had slashed a precocious .320/.436/.422 in 181 plate appearances with Low-A Lakeland.

His profile is compelling. When our 2021 Tigers Top Prospect list came out in March, Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein called Keith “one of the more intriguing two-way players in the 2020 draft,” adding that he was “seen by many teams as unsignable after the first three rounds.” Eight months after those words were written, the 6-foot-3, 215-pound infielder is no less intriguing, and more promising than ever.

Keith discussed his draft experience, and his eye-opening performance, shortly before the conclusion of the minor-league season.

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David Laurila: How did you end up signing with the Tigers rather than playing college ball at Arizona State?

Colt Keith: “I didn’t really want to go to school. That was my thing; it’s why I was willing to take less [money to sign]. After about the second or third round, I figured I wasn’t going to get picked, because teams thought I was going to go to school. But then the Tigers gave my agent a call and offered enough, so we decided to take it.”

Laurila: Why didn’t you want to go the college route?

Keith: “We looked at the positives of both sides, and the negatives of both sides, and I liked the opportunity to start my pro career at a young age. I felt like I was ready to go, that I could compete and didn’t need those three years of college to get prepared for it. On top of that, I’m not a big school guy. Getting a degree… I mean, going to school for three years just didn’t sound like a lot of fun to me.”

Laurila: That said, teams apparently thought otherwise… Read the rest of this entry »

The last two World Series games have featured pitching best described as aspirational. The Braves used three pitchers who barely pitched in the majors to face 37 Astros, and the results were mixed. Sometimes you’re Kyle Wright, throwing 4.2 clutch innings to keep your team in the game. Sometimes you’re Tucker Davidson, coughing up a four-run lead in two-plus brutal frames. That’s the nature of pitching, but it’s not exclusive to those fringe arms, as this postseason has shown.

Consider the worst pitchers that teams brought into these playoffs. Fourteen relievers who posted a regular-season FIP of 4.50 or higher have appeared this postseason, pitching a combined 44.2 innings. They’ve been awful! They’ve combined for an ERA of 6.00 and a FIP of 5.30. That’s the kind of pitching that sends you home early.

It’s also better than you’d expect! After all, these pitchers aren’t great. That’s how I selected them — pitchers with bad numbers during the regular season. In fact, this group combined for a 5.52 FIP in the regular season, weighted by the number of postseason innings they’ve each accounted for. They’ve actually done better in the playoffs — perhaps the reason why teams selected them in the first place. Read the rest of this entry »

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2021-22 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to the ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2022 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for six of this year’s free agents — in this case, another group of starting pitchers. Read the rest of this entry »

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2021-22 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to the ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2022 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for seven of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of starting pitchers. Read the rest of this entry »

Though they lost on Sunday night, the Braves still own a three-games-to-two lead over the Astros in the World Series thanks in large part to the work done by their bullpen. Due to the season-ending injuries to starters Huascar Ynoa and Charlie Morton, the unit has had to do a whole lot of heavy lifting, throwing two-thirds of the team’s innings (29.1 out of 44). What’s more, in Games 4 and 5, not only did manager Brian Snitker have to patch together bullpen games, he began them by giving the ball to a pair of pitchers, lefty Dylan Lee and righty Tucker Davidson, who barely had any big league experience at all. Lee, in fact, had never started a big league game before, making that move without precedent in any of the previous 115 World Series. The gambit met with only limited success, as both pitchers were shaky, but the Braves nonetheless managed a split, taking Game 4 before losing Game 5.

Lee and Davidson are hardly the first such pitchers to be thrown into the World Series fire despite a dearth of experience. In fact, such October surprises are part of a rich tradition. What follows here is a non-comprehensive look back at the Braves’ pair plus eight other pitchers with minimal major league experience before the Fall Classic (which isn’t to say that they’re the youngest), and how they fared.

Ken Brett, 1967 Red Sox (1 regular season appearance)

The older brother of Hall of Famer George Brett as well as two other brothers (Bobby and John) who briefly played professionally, Ken Brett stands as both the youngest and least experienced pitcher in World Series history. The fourth pick of the 1966 draft out of El Segundo High School in California, Brett rose quickly through the minors, and was just nine days past his 19th birthday when he debuted with two innings of relief work in a loss to Cleveland on September 27, 1967. At the time, the “Impossible Dream” Red Sox were 80-70, tied for second in a four-way race. When they pulled out the pennant, manager Dick Williams included the precocious lefty on the roster without hesitation because, as he later said, “He had the guts of a burglar.” Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

“Fortune favors the brave(s).”

Matt Damon uses something like this phrase to punctuate an ill-conceived cryptocurrency commercial that has been running during the World Series, the copy for which includes more polysyllabic words (that aren’t “Domino’s” or “America”) than most ads. To this point, the commercial had provided an eerie narration of the Series itself. Atlanta had been the team improvising (Dylan Lee opening Game 4) and experimenting (Ozzie Albies hitting right-on-right), sometimes out of necessity (Game 5 starter Tucker Davidson), and it was Atlanta that entered Sunday night with a commanding 3-1 series lead before leaping out to a 4-0 lead in Game 5. But with their backs against the wall, the iron-jawed Astros withstood a first-inning grand slam and battled back to win 9-5, sending the series back to Houston.

The game began with tremendous good fortune for Atlanta. In the first, Albies was treated to a shift-aided, room service double play ball off the bat of Carlos Correa that erased a Michael Brantley walk and ushered Davidson past what was likely a jittery inning of work. In the bottom half of the frame, the topspin of a chopper off the bat of Jorge Soler made the ball’s hop shallow, allowing it to slip underneath the glove of Alex Bregman, who expected the hop to be bigger. That gave the Braves a meaningful extra out to work with, and instead of an Albies groundout ending the would-be five-pitch inning for Houston starter Framber Valdez, Austin Riley and Eddie Rosario were able to prolong the first with a single and walk before Adam Duvall delivered a huge blow in the form of a wall-scraping, opposite-field grand slam. Read the rest of this entry »