“Success is a science; if you have the conditions, you get the result.” – Oscar Wilde

Sometimes, the path to success is circuitous. Success in baseball is a zero-sum game, and your fortune is inevitably linked to the demise of your competitors. Those competitors strive to not make it easy, at least in those seasons where they haven’t decided to suddenly get their team payroll under, I don’t know, let’s say $208 million. Trials and tribulations make stories more interesting; Frodo and Sam going on a casual, uneventful stroll to Mt. Doom would make for painfully dull books and film adaptations. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2020 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

For better or worse, I’m a completist. In 16 years of analyzing Hall of Fame ballots using my JAWS system, I’ve never let a candidate pass without comment, no matter how remote his chance of election. From the brothers Alomar to the youngest Alou and the elder Young, I’ve covered ’em all. Thus it’s my sworn duty to tackle the minor candidates on the 2020 BBWAA ballot in addition to the major ones — of which there were 18 this year. That leaves 14 to go.

To be eligible for election, a player must appear in games in at least 10 major league seasons, with a career that ended at least five calendar years ago, and then be nominated by at least two members of a six-member screening committee — a step that can produce some arbitrary results, as I’ve noted in the past. Getting this far is a victory unto itself, but these candidates aren’t going any further; given that none has received a single vote from among the 50 ballots published so far, it’s fair to say that none is going to get the 5% necessary to remain eligible, let alone the 75% needed for election. Just the same, these one-and-done candidates were accomplished players who deserve their valedictory, and in this series, they’ll get it.

Our first batch covers a quartet of infielders who intermittently played up to All-Star levels (not that they were always recognized for doing so). But once they reached their 30s, their careers began to fall apart, with injuries generally playing a prominent role. Be forewarned: these are not the happiest tales in this series.

Read the rest of this entry »

In the first installment of a special, seven-episode series on the past, present, and future of advanced analysis in non-baseball sports, Ben Lindbergh talks to ESPN’s Bill Barnwell about football (the American kind) and then ESPN’s Kevin Pelton about basketball (48:43), touching on the origins of sabermetrics-style analysis in each sport, the major challenges, big breakthroughs, and overturned misconceptions, the early adopters, the cutting-edge stats and tech, the level of acceptance within the game, the effects on the spectator experience, the parallels with baseball, and more.

Audio intro: Superchunk, "Winter Games"
Audio interstitial: Ben Kweller, "Different But the Same"
Audio outro: Pernice Brothers, "How Can I Compare"

Link to The Hidden Game of Football
Link to FiveThirtyEight on the NFL not passing enough
Link to FiveThirtyEight on NFL teams running too much on first down
Link to Bill Barnwell on teams evaluating quarterbacks
Link to Kevin Clark on fourth-down conversion attempts
Link to Danny Heifetz on the origins of the NFL analytics movement
Link to Clark on the NFL’s analytics revolution
Link to Clark on bringing science to the NFL draft
Link to Football Outsiders site
Link to Kevin Pelton’s bio/archive
Link to PER Wikipedia page
Link to Pablo Torre and Tom Haberstroh on NBA biometrics
Link to Zach Kram on the NBA’s 3-point boom
Link to Haberstroh on load management
Link to Paolo Uggetti on Kawhi Leonard’s load management
Link to FiveThirtyEight RAPTOR projections
Link to order The MVP Machine

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Ben Lindbergh, Sam Miller, and Meg Rowley discuss the signings of Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel, the Blue Jays’ historic 2019 rotation, the depleted pitching market, MLB’s rising revenue and the continued strength of spending on free agents, Jake Odorizzi and the qualifying offer, Nick Senzel’s switch to Scott Boras, and Rich Hill’s arrest(!), then conduct the seventh annual Effectively Wild Minor League Free Agent Draft, selecting 10 minor league free agents each and competing to see whose roster will accumulate the most combined MLB playing time in 2020.

Audio intro: Chance The Rapper, "Get a Bag"
Audio outro: Paul Weller, "Bag Man"

Link to list of minor league free agents
Link to Weems duck photo
Link to EW competitions and drafts tracker
Link to order The MVP Machine

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

This winter’s free agent class was once full of starting pitching. The offseason began with starting pitchers representing 10 of the top 20 free agents overall, and 21 of FanGraphs’ Top 50 Free Agents. After Dallas Keuchel signed with Chicago White Sox, Hyun-Jin Ryu, 40-year-old Rich Hill, and Homer Bailey were the only ranked starters remaining, and only Ryu represented a good bet for production next season. With many teams still in need of reinforcements for their rotations, competition for the lefty’s services was likely strong. Among potential contenders, the Twins and Angels presented the greatest need for a starter, but it was the Blue Jays who surprised and reached agreement on a four-year deal worth $80 million, per Jeff Passan.

Ryu will turn 33 years old in March, so the end of this contract will take him through his age-36 season. He’s got a complicated injury history (he hit the injured list again for a short time last season), but a strong 2019 combined with his status as the last man standing on the free agent market allowed him to far exceed the $48 million crowdsource median ($59 million average), as well as Kiley McDaniel’s $32 million estimate. In Ryu’s free agent capsule, Jay Jaffe noted the factors working in the left-hander’s favor, as well as those working against him, as he headed into free agency:

After being limited to 15 starts in 2018 due to a severe groin strain, the portly port-sider pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title for the first time since his 2013 rookie campaign. He didn’t just qualify, he led the NL with a 2.32 mark despite fading late. Through July, he posted a 1.53 ERA and 2.85 FIP, but that ballooned to 4.60 and 3.83 over the final two months, with a 10-day IL stint for neck soreness thrown in. Ryu’s success isn’t quite as enigmatic or unorthodox as his process, which includes rarely throwing bullpens between starts. Via a five-pitch arsenal, with his changeup the real star, he’s exceptional at limiting hard contact; his average exit velocity of 85.3 mph ranked in the 96th percentile, his .282 xwOBA in the 81st. His strikeout rate was a modest 22.5%, but he walked an NL-low 3.3%, so his 19.2% K-BB% ranked 12th, and his 3.10 FIP fourth. After accepting a qualifying offer last fall, he’s well-positioned for a multi-year deal despite the questions about his durability.

Read the rest of this entry »

After the last couple of winters in which seemingly fine candidates for substantial multi-year deals were forced to settle for one-year contracts, this offseason has seen those same players finally land the kind of commitments they always seemed deserving of. Mike Moustakas signed a four-year, $64-million deal with the Reds after signing back-to-back one-year deals in Kansas City and Milwaukee. Yasmani Grandal signed a four-year, $73-million contract with the White Sox after taking just a one-year deal with the Brewers the previous season. And after health concerns limited Josh Donaldson to a one-year deal a year ago, he seems poised to collect a hefty payday as the best remaining bat available on the market this winter.

On Saturday, another player previously abandoned by the market finally landed his own multi-year deal. The White Sox signed former Braves and Astros left-hander Dallas Keuchel, as first reported by ESPN’s Jeff Passan. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman was first to report the terms of the deal:

Keuchel to White Sox. 3/$55.5 with a vesting 4th year that could take to 4/$74.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 22, 2019

Keuchel, 31, was one of the longest hold-outs in free agency last year, as he and formidable closer Craig Kimbrel each waited until June 7 — two days after the conclusion of the amateur draft, when draft pick compensation was no longer attached to them — to sign a contract. While Kimbrel received three years and $43 million in his deal with the Cubs, Keuchel signed just a one-year, $13-million deal with the Braves. In Atlanta, he was part of a starting rotation that finished sixth in the National League in WAR while guiding the team to a second-straight NL East title before bowing out to the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS. Read the rest of this entry »

Count the Texas Rangers among teams who are tweaking their approach to hitting. That much was clear when I spoke to Chris Woodward during the regular season, and again during the Winter Meetings. In our recent conversation, I asked the 43-year-old manager who stands out as having made the most progress in 2019.

“In my eyes, Willie Calhoun probably made the biggest jump,” said Woodward. “Joey Gallo, as well, before he got hurt. But Willie really, really bought into a lot of things that made him successful. He had different swings for different pitches. He’d go into a game knowing, ‘Is this guy sinking the ball, or is he going to be spinning me with curveballs?’ He’d know what kind of swing path he needed. Willie was able to manipulate, and be versatile enough with his swing, to almost have two or three different swings.”

Calhoun would sometimes use different bats for different pitchers. While the biggest determiner was the hurler’s handedness, repertoires were also a consideration.

The flexibility paid dividends. Previously unproven and unpolished,the 25-year-old (as of last month) outfielder slashed .269/.323/.524, and went deep 21 times in just 337 plate appearances. A year earlier, he’d scuffled to the tune of a .602 OPS in a 35-game big-league cameo as the club’s No. 1 prospect. Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets.

Batters

They took a winding road to get there, but the Mets’ core offensive talent is all on the 25-man, all still under 30, and generally speaking, are all free from odd playing time restrictions once due to the presence of inferior veterans at their same positions. Jake Marisnick will likely get a lot of time in center, but given that Brandon Nimmo is coming off of injury, having Marisnick on the roster is smart; he’s a capable fourth outfielder and not famous enough or well paid enough that a healthy Nimmo won’t be able to wrest away the lion’s share of the playing time.

ZiPS didn’t like what it saw in Robinson Canó’s 2019; he now projects as one of the team’s weaker players, but there isn’t an obvious replacement at the moment. Jed Lowrie is still hanging around, at least until the Mets convince someone to take his contract (which is unlikely given the plethora of 1.5 WAR middle infielders still available), but his health is still iffy and he’d have to be clearly better to take Canó’s job. I don’t believe he is. Sadly, Canó no longer projects to finish with 3000 hits, though he’s likely already wrapped up his Hall of Fame candidacy in any case.

Pitchers

A Jacob deGrom–Noah Syndergaard–Marcus Stroman top of the rotation is a top three that can compete with that of any team in the majors. I’m not sure if the Mets have truly given up their strange dream to trade Thor, but as of right now, he’s a Met and that’s where he’s being projected. The Mets have at least six major league-caliber starters with the additions of Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello. The conventional wisdom is that Steven Matz is the odd man out one or the other, but I’m not convinced that’s the case. Now, Matz may very well be traded this winter, but I’m not sure it’s a given that he’s the one sent to the bullpen if he’s still a Met in April. I know Wacha joined the team with the intention of being a starter, but he’s also coming off injuries and a $3 million salary typically isn’t enough to have much leverage over what position you actually play.

The best news here is that ZiPS is projecting bounce-back seasons for Edwin Díaz and Jeurys Familia. Diaz looked awful in 2019, but who doesn’t look awful when allowing 2.33 HR/9 and a .377 BABIP? Based on the advanced hit data, ZiPS doesn’t think Díaz ought to have fared this poorly in either stat last season. After Díaz, it’s not the flashiest bunch, but the computer thinks they’ll far exceed their miserable 0.7 WAR from 2019, which was 24th in baseball and last among the contending teams.

Prospects

One problem for the Mets is that they don’t have a lot of short-term depth in the upper minors as injury replacements. That’s partially why they’ve been a Who’s Who of washed up outfielders at Triple-A the last few years. ZiPS doesn’t think Luis Guillorme will do much to force a change at second base, and doesn’t believe Andrés Giménez’s bat is quite ready, despite a glove that projects as above-average. Ronny Mauricio is farther off, and the computer doesn’t really have much to say about him at this point, but no matter what, it’s unlikely he shoots up to the majors in 2020. Of course, I said that about Juan Soto once!

The one prospect ZiPS is excited about in the short-term is David Peterson, the big lefty sinkerballer drafted in the first round in 2017. ZiPS thinks that Peterson is already in the same tier as Wacha or Porcello, but given that the Mets are likely contenders in 2020, it would be reasonable to expect the team to go with their most established players, rather than have Peterson adjust to the majors in games that matter. Like Porcello and Stroman, Peterson’s numbers are likely to be sensitive to the Mets infield defense, which will improve by having less of J.D. Davis in it.

He’s not really a prospect, but the Mets still seem inclined to let Tim Tebow get time in the upper minors for some reason, and they haven’t slammed the door on the possibility of actually giving him some kind of playing time in the majors. zDEF thinks that Tebow has improved defensively — my system estimated him at a ludicrously awful -25 runs in left field in 2017, the worst in my database — but he’s never done enough offensively to doubt the scouts who think he doesn’t have the skillset to contribute at the major league level. At least the Mets don’t have a significant prospect above Single-A for him to block!

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

Since 2016, only one other team has lost more players to the Injured List than the Los Angeles Angels. They’ve cumulatively lost over 5,600 days to various injuries during the last four seasons, the second highest total in the majors behind the Padres. And a significant number of those injuries have decimated their pitching staff.

The pitchers listed above account for over 2,200 days lost to injury over the last four years, nearly 40% of the team’s cumulative total. And that doesn’t even take into account the relievers and other less established starters who also lost time to injuries, or Tyler Skaggs’ tragic passing earlier this year (the days listed above include his 2019 IL stint, not the season days following his death). The Angels’ trouble keeping their pitching staff healthy has been one of the major reasons they haven’t come close to sniffing the postseason since 2014 despite employing the best player in baseball. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 875

On this edition of FanGraphs Audio, I welcome senior writer Dan Szymborski back to the program. Dan and I discuss his favorite free agent signings of the offseason so far, the teams that have most altered their 2020 fortunes, and what a busy winter means for the overall health of free agency. I also force Dan to assign the remaining good free agents to new homes, lightening round style.

You can find all of Dan’s 2020 ZiPS projections here as they roll out.

Our RosterResource Free Agent tracker can be found here, and the Offseason Transaction Tracker can be found here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @megrowler on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximate 53 min play time.)

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS