Kiley McDaniel Chat – 9/18/19

12:20

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout is napping and I’m sipping a protein shake.

12:21

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve added some high-speed video to the @FG_Prospects twitter account, @fangraphs instagram and @fangraphs YouTube. Trevor Bauer, Ian Anderson, Justin Dunn, Nate Pearson the most recent.

12:22

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve continued to pull prospects off the lists that have graduated and Nate Lowe and Jonathan Loaisiga graduated today, so they’ll get taken off shortly. Look at the farm rankings before they change again: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

12:25

Kiley McDaniel: Okay, sorry for the delay, I just took both of them off the lists

12:27

Kiley McDaniel: to your questions:

12:27

BlueJayMatt: If you were in charge would you change the rules to allow draft pick trading in mlb? Maybe with some restrictions in place like the nba who don’t allow consecutive first round picks to be traded?

Read the rest of this entry »


Jason Vargas and The Legacy of Not Winning in Philadelphia

On September 15, Jason Vargas threw a pitch that ended the Phillies season. Maybe not mathematically, but spiritually, the Phillies’ 2019 campaign sailed over the fence with the grand slam Vargas served Christian Vázquez of the Red Sox in the top of the third. It was the ninth start of Vargas’ Philadelphia career, and the ninth straight game he didn’t win.

The Phillies are the only team to have a winning record for the entire season, but after their loss on September 15, their playoff odds sat below 1%. They’ve managed to maintain an 8-8 record against a superior Braves team, yet can’t stop getting their clocks cleaned by the Marlins, against whom they’re 7-9. On a team defined by relentless mediocrity, Jason Vargas’ lack of a win is a notable statistical spike. But you will be unsurprised to learn that in Philadelphia, it is not without precedent.

We must travel back to 1992 to find it, a(nother) period of disgruntled upheaval in the city. Von Hayes never had as good a time in Philadelphia as he did leaving it. When word came down that the once celebrated outfielder had been traded to the Angels in 1991, Hayes couldn’t be reached for comment by the Inquirer, but they surmised the situation as best they could:

“…you didn’t need to hear him to know that he had seen about as much of Philadelphia as he ever wanted to see. And Philadelphia had seen as much of him as it wanted to see, too.”

Read the rest of this entry »


Madison Bumgarner, Emilio Pagan, and Jacob Waguespack on Cultivating Their Cutter/Sliders

Pitchers learn and develop different pitches, and they do so at varying stages of their lives. It might be a curveball in high school, a cutter in college, or a changeup in A-ball. Sometimes the addition or refinement is a natural progression — graduating from Pitching 101 to advanced course work — and often it’s a matter of necessity. In order to get hitters out as the quality of competition improves, a pitcher needs to optimize his repertoire.

In this installment of the series, we’ll hear from three pitchers — Madison Bumgarner, Emilio Pagan, and Jacob Waguespack— on how they learned and developed their cutter/sliders.

———

Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants

“I pretty much find myself saying ‘cutter-slider,’ just so there’s no confusion. I originally wanted to call it a slider, but it ended up with most people calling it a cutter. Movement-wise… in relation to my fastball it’s kind of like the speed of a cutter, but it moves a little more like a slider. Sometimes it will be a little shorter, though.

“I started throwing it 2010. I’d just got sent down from spring training and there was a guy named Horacio Ramirez, a left-hander from Mexico. He was there. He was an older guy who knew how to pitch, and he threw a cutter. I didn’t really have any off-speed pitches at that time; I basically didn’t throw anything all through the minor leagues, and then … I threw an actual slider, but it was no good at all. When I got to the big leagues in 2009 I threw it some, but it wasn’t no good. Read the rest of this entry »


In 2019, the White Sox Struck Gold on Their Most Important Players

The White Sox’s 2019 record was nothing to write home about, but they answered some important questions about their roster. (Photo: Geoff Livingston)

The Chicago White Sox are a franchise that can just taste the end of their rebuild. While they didn’t always move every veteran they could, they got top-shelf returns for Chris Sale, Adam Eaton, and José Quintana. The winning part tends to be the fun part, and the Sox play in a division with two teams that are in much worse shape, and two good teams that don’t spend aggressively. In front of this backdrop, you can almost feel the White Sox’s eagerness to throw their winter clothing to the back of the closet.

The Setup

From a transaction perspective, 2018 wasn’t quite as action-packed for the White Sox as prior years had been, largely because most of the team’s old core had already been traded to other teams. Jose Abreu was essentially the last remnant of the pre-rebuild White Sox, but the team didn’t move him for two significant reasons. First, the market for sub-elite first base/corner outfielder types has collapsed in recent years, and with Abreu 31 and dropping from his previous numbers, it was unlikely a return would be impressive. The other stumbling block to an Abreu trade was that Chicago didn’t actually want to trade him. Abreu’s a well-respected player in the clubhouse and popular with fans, as well as a mentor to Yoán Moncada, so if you’re not going to do better than, say, a 26-year-old Double-A reliever, why not keep him?

As I’ve discussed in the past, one of the disappointing things about the team’s 2018 was how few questions they really answered about their talent. Moncada looked like the same extraordinarily talented but up-and-down player at the end of 2018 that he appeared to be at the beginning. Neither Tim Anderson nor Yolmer Sánchez took a step forward, nor did much of the back of the roster, and the Daniel Palkas and Adam Engels failed to make much of a case for more significant roles. And the player who showed the most progress, Michael Kopech, was ruled out for the 2019 season after needing Tommy John surgery before 2018 had even wrapped.

Without knowing what to make a lot of their talent, the White Sox didn’t engage in much offseason wheeling-and-dealing, instead choosing to mostly hunker down for 2019. There was one big exception, however: the hunt for Manny Machado. For the future of the White Sox, this was one of the most promising signs.

“But Dan, I thought you hate rebuilding teams picking up veterans! I’m sure I’ve seen about 300 snarky tweets on this subject from you in the last…week or so!” Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Phillies Baseball Research & Development Quantitative Analyst Roles

Please note, this posting contains multiple positions.

Title: Quantitative Analyst

Department: Baseball Research & Development
Reports to: Director, Baseball Research & Development
Status: Regular Full-Time

Position Overview:
As a Quantitative Analyst (QA), you help shape The Phillies Baseball Operations strategies by processing, analyzing, and interpreting large and complex data. You do more than just crunch the numbers; you carefully plan the design of your own studies by asking and answering the right questions, while also working collaboratively with other analysts and software engineers on larger projects.

Using analytical rigor, you work with your team as you mine through data and see opportunities for The Phillies to improve. After communicating the results of your studies and experiments to the GM and executive staff, you collaborate with front office executives, scouts, coaches, and trainers to incorporate your findings into Phillies practices. Identifying the challenge is only half the job; you also work to figure out and implement the solution.

Responsibilities:

  • Conduct statistical research projects and manage the integration of their outputs into our proprietary tools and applications (e.g., performance projections, player valuations, draft assessments, injury analyses, etc.)
  • Communicate with front office executives, scouts, coaches, and medical staff to design and interpret statistical studies
  • Assist the rest of the QA team with their projects by providing guidance and feedback on your areas of expertise within baseball, statistics, data visualization, and programming
  • Continually enhance your knowledge of baseball and data science through reading, research, and discussion with your teammates and the rest of the front office
  • Provide input in architecting the storage of baseball data

Required Qualifications:

  • Deep understanding of statistics, including supervised and unsupervised learning, regularization, model assessment and selection, model inference and averaging, ensemble methods, etc.
  • Meaningful work experience with statistical software (R, S-Plus, SAS, or similar), databases, and scripting languages such as Python
  • Proven willingness to both teach others and learn new techniques
  • Willingness to work as part of a team on complex projects
  • Proven leadership and self-direction

Preferred Qualifications:

  • BS, MS or PhD in Statistics or related (e.g., mathematics, physics, or ops research) or equivalent practical experience
  • 0-5+ years of relevant work experience
  • Experience drawing conclusions from data, communicating those conclusions to decision makers, and recommending actions

Title: Quantitative Analyst Associate

Department: Baseball Research & Development
Reports to: Director, Baseball Research & Development
Status: Hourly Part-Time Seasonal

Position Overview:
As a Quantitative Analyst (QA) Associate, you help shape The Phillies Baseball Operations strategies by processing, analyzing, and interpreting large and complex data. You do more than just crunch the numbers; you carefully plan the design of your own studies by asking and answering the right questions, while also working collaboratively with other analysts and software engineers on larger projects.

Using analytical rigor, you work with your team as you mine through data and see opportunities for The Phillies to improve. After communicating the results of your studies and experiments to the GM and executive staff, you collaborate with front office executives, scouts, coaches, and trainers to incorporate your findings into Phillies practices. Identifying the challenge is only half the job; you also work to figure out and implement the solution.

Responsibilities:

  • Conduct statistical research projects and manage the integration of their outputs into our proprietary tools and applications (e.g., performance projections, player valuations, draft assessments, injury analyses, etc.)
  • Communicate with front office executives, scouts, coaches, and medical staff to design and interpret statistical studies
  • Assist the rest of the QA team with their projects by providing guidance and feedback on your areas of expertise within baseball, statistics, data visualization, and programming
  • Continually enhance your knowledge of baseball and data science through reading, research, and discussion with your teammates and the rest of the front office
  • Provide input in architecting the storage of baseball data

Required Qualifications:

  • Deep understanding of statistics, including supervised and unsupervised learning, regularization, model assessment and selection, model inference and averaging, ensemble methods, etc.
  • Meaningful work experience with statistical software (R, S-Plus, SAS, or similar), databases, and scripting languages such as Python
  • Proven willingness to both teach others and learn new techniques
  • Willingness to work as part of a team on complex projects
  • Proven leadership and self-direction

Preferred Qualifications:

  • Possess or are pursuing a BS, MS or PhD in Statistics or related (e.g., mathematics, physics, or ops research) or equivalent practical experience
  • 0-5+ years of relevant work experience
  • Experience drawing conclusions from data, communicating those conclusions to decision makers, and recommending actions

To Apply:
Interested applicants for the Quantitative Analyst and Quantitative Analyst Associate positions should submit both their resume and an answer to the following question:

Suppose you could trade your top pitching prospect (currently in a lower minor league level) for a young, all-star position player currently in the Major Leagues. How would you decide whether to make the trade? (250 word limit)

Tip: There’s no defined right or wrong answer. Responses are used to get some insight into how you approach problem solving and baseball in general.

Please submit your resume and question response to analytics@phillies.com no later than Sunday, October 13, 2019. Applications not sent to analytics@phillies.com will not be considered.

The Phillies is an Equal Opportunity Employer.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Philadelphia Phillies.


Job Posting: Phillies Baseball Operations Associate and Intern Roles

Please note, this posting contains multiple positions.

Title: Baseball Operations Associate

Department: Baseball Research & Development
Reports to: Director, Baseball Research & Development
Status: Hourly Part-Time Seasonal

Position Overview:
The Phillies are seeking passionate and knowledgeable applicants for an entry-level baseball operations associate. This role will provide analytical and administrative support to their baseball operations group and will consist of opportunities to contribute throughout the many facets of the department, including close collaboration with their Research & Development team.

Responsibilities:

  • Assist with and compose ad hoc research and analysis for baseball operations initiatives including internal and external player evaluation
  • Assist with sports science initiatives including data collection using the latest baseball technologies
  • Perform player analysis in support of salary arbitration preparations
  • Provide administrative support as needed

Required Qualifications:

  • Strong foundational knowledge in modern baseball analysis
  • Excellent written and verbal communication skills
  • Rigorous attention to detail
  • Proficiency in Microsoft Excel

Preferred Qualifications:

  • Familiarity with SQL
  • Experience with other programming languages (e.g. R, Python)
  • Experience working with video and with baseball technologies (TrackMan, Rapsodo, bat sensors, etc.)
  • Familiarity with league transaction rules

Title: Organizational Intern, Baseball Operations Analyst

Department: Baseball Research & Development
Reports to: Director, Baseball Research & Development
Status: Full-Time Salary Non-Exempt Intern

Position Overview:
The Phillies are seeking passionate and knowledgeable applicants for an entry-level baseball operations internship. This role will provide analytical and administrative support to their baseball operations group and will consist of opportunities to contribute throughout the many facets of the department, including close collaboration with their Research & Development team.

Responsibilities:

  • Assist with and compose ad hoc research and analysis for baseball operations initiatives including internal and external player evaluation
  • Assist with sports science initiatives including data collection using the latest baseball technologies
  • Perform player analysis in support of salary arbitration preparations
  • Provide administrative support as needed

Required Qualifications:

  • Strong foundational knowledge in modern baseball analysis
  • Excellent written and verbal communication skills
  • Rigorous attention to detail
  • Proficiency in Microsoft Excel

Preferred Qualifications:

  • Familiarity with SQL
  • Experience with other programming languages (e.g. R, Python)
  • Experience working with video and with baseball technologies (TrackMan, Rapsodo, bat sensors, etc.)
  • Familiarity with league transaction rules

To Apply:
Interested applicants for the Associate and Intern positions should submit both their resume and an answer to the following question:

Write a brief analysis of the top three starting pitchers expected to be free agents this offseason. How would you advise team decision makers to rank the pitchers for acquisition purposes and why? (max. 300 words)

Please submit your resume and question response to analytics@phillies.com no later than Sunday, October 13, 2019. Applications not sent to analytics@phillies.com will not be considered.

The Phillies is an Equal Opportunity Employer.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Philadelphia Phillies.


Job Posting: Phillies Baseball Research & Development Software Engineers

Please note, this posting contains multiple positions.

The work of a Software Engineer (SWE) at The Phillies extends well beyond merely coding. As a SWE you contribute fresh ideas in a variety of areas, including information retrieval, networking and data storage, security, machine learning, natural language processing, UI design and mobile to shape the evolution of The Phillies baseball analytics systems.

The Phillies ideal engineers will have a versatile skill set, be enthusiastic to handle new challenges and demonstrate leadership qualities. You will work closely with end-users across Scouting, Player Development and the Major League Coaching Staff while building software tools from the ground up. By identifying appropriate design specifications through collaboration with those end-users, you will build applications that conform to user needs.

Specific areas of focus may include, but are not limited to, the draft, free-agency, player valuation, player development, in-game strategy, and injury prevention. As a SWE you will have the opportunity to use your technical expertise to create software solutions that impact decision making at The Phillies.

Title: Software Engineer

Department: Baseball Research & Development
Reports to: Director, Baseball Research & Development
Status: Regular Full-Time

Responsibilities:

  • Improve existing platforms and design new proprietary applications to be used directly by the GM and executive staff
  • Collaborate with front office executives, scouts, coaches, and medical staff regarding the design and technical specifications of software solutions for Baseball Operations
  • Work together with Baseball R&D department to help optimize the Phillies baseball analytics systems, including crafting solutions to efficiently and effectively synthesize, organize and present data from multiple third-party sources
  • Help to augment the technical knowledge of the entire Baseball Operations department by providing training, mentorship and support on the use of all applications and tools built by the team

Required Qualifications:

  • BS degree in Computer Science, similar technical field of study or equivalent practical experience
  • Software development experience in one or more general purpose programming languages (including but not limited to: Java, C/C++, C#, Go, Objective C, Python or JavaScript)
  • Interest and ability to learn new technologies as needed
  • Experience working with two or more from the following: web application development, Unix/Linux environments, mobile application development, design thinking, machine learning, natural language processing, and data architecture
  • Proven willingness to both teach others and learn new techniques
  • Proven leadership and self-direction

Preferred Qualifications:

  • Master’s, PhD degree, further education or 4+ years experience in engineering, computer science or other technical related field
  • Prior experience managing/leading a technical team

Title: Software Engineer Associate

Department: Baseball Research & Development
Reports to: Director, Baseball Research & Development
Status: Hourly Part-Time Seasonal

Responsibilities:

  • Improve existing platforms and design new proprietary applications to be used directly by the GM and executive staff
  • Collaborate with front office executives, scouts, coaches, and medical staff regarding the design and technical specifications of software solutions for Baseball Operations
  • Work together with Baseball R&D department to help optimize the Phillies baseball analytics systems, including crafting solutions to efficiently and effectively synthesize, organize and present data from multiple third-party sources
  • Help to augment the technical knowledge of the entire Baseball Operations department by providing training, mentorship and support on the use of all applications and tools built by the team

Required Qualifications:

  • Possess or are pursuing a BS degree in Computer Science, similar technical field of study or equivalent practical experience
  • Software development experience in one or more general purpose programming languages (including but not limited to: Java, C/C++, C#, Go, Objective C, Python or JavaScript)
  • Interest and ability to learn new technologies as needed
  • Experience working with two or more from the following: web application development, Unix/Linux environments, mobile application development, design thinking, machine learning, natural language processing, and data architecture
  • Proven willingness to both teach others and learn new techniques
  • Proven leadership and self-direction

Preferred Qualifications:

  • Possess or are pursuing a Master’s, PhD degree, further education or 4+ years experience in engineering, computer science or other technical related field
  • Prior experience managing/leading a technical team

To Apply:
Interested applicants in the Software Engineer and Software Engineer Associate positions should submit both their resume and an answer to the following question:

What competitive advantages does having a great software engineering department provide to an MLB team? (250 word limit)

Tip: There’s no defined right or wrong answer. Responses are used to get some insight into your thoughts on what is important in software engineering.

To apply for either position, please submit your resume and question response to analytics@phillies.com no later than Sunday, October 13, 2019. Applications not sent to analytics@phillies.com will not be considered.

The Phillies is an Equal Opportunity Employer.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Philadelphia Phillies.


Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 9/17/19

2:00
Meg Rowley: Hi all — welcome to the chat!

2:01
Meg Rowley: Let’s get this bit of awfulness out of the way…

2:01
Vander: Vazquez… Just… *sigh*… Please say he’s going to be out of baseball for good… Please.

2:01
BlueJayMatt: If you were in charge of the Pirates what would you do with Vazquez?

2:01
Dr. Frank Jobe: So uhhh Felipe Velasquez eh?

2:01
awg: Felipe Vazquez 😬😬😬😬😬😬😬😬😬😬😬

Read the rest of this entry »


Dodgers Hope September Shuffling Pays October Dividends

NEW YORK — They’ve won back to back National League pennants and clinched their seventh straight NL West title on September 10. They have a four-game lead over the Braves for the senior circuit’s best record. And yet, even as they close in on 100 wins and the top NL seed for the playoffs, the 2019 Dodgers are still a squad very much in flux. Lineup, rotation, bullpen — everywhere, key roles up for grabs, as manager Dave Roberts and his staff spend the remainder of September hoping to find a route through October that will end differently than the last two. 

This past weekend’s trip to Citi Field for a three-game series against the Mets, who had won four straight and nine out of their last 13, put all of that on display. Friday night’s 9-2 rout was keyed by a fourth-inning, three-run homer off Noah Syndergaard by rookie Gavin Lux, who despite having just 12 major league games under his belt at this writing is amid a successful audition for the starting second base job. Saturday’s lineup featured an outfield of familiar faces — A.J. Pollock, Cody Bellinger, and Joc Pederson — in a configuration that had been used on just two other occasions in the previous 149 games.

Saturday evening’s pitching matchup, though billed as as one between Cy Young hopefuls Jacob deGrom and Hyun-Jin Ryu, was in many ways a crucial test for the latter, who despite leading all major league starters in ERA had suddenly fallen into a four-start funk. He passed his test with flying colors, delivering seven shutout innings, but the bullpen that followed him did not, surrendering three eighth-inning runs that led to defeat. Sunday brought some familiar moving parts back into the mix, and the bullpen — particularly Kenley Jansen — fared much better in the team’s come-from-behind 3-2 victory.

To be clear, some of this was and will continue to be the usual September shufflings of a playoff-bound team trying to cover for injuries and rest some veterans before the postseason. With Justin Turner nursing a mild left ankle sprain, rookie Matt Beaty started on Friday and Saturday at third base, a position he hadn’t played at the major league level before September, though for as useful as he’s been off the bench, he’s no threat to unseat a healthy Turner. Ryu was starting on nine days of rest, while Walker Buehler, who started on Sunday, was pulled after 71 pitches (his fewest since his season debut on March 31) and five innings, pushing his season total to 171.1, 18 more than last year’s combined total in the minors and majors.

Of course, it helps to have expanded September rosters for such an endeavor, and with the Dodgers, Lux is no window dressing. By the time the team’s 2016 first-round pick made his major league debut on September 2, the Dodgers had already started six other players at second base, including July 31 acquisition Jedd Gyorko, who had debuted there on September 1. Led by Enrique Hernández (84 games, 63 starts) and Max Muncy (67 games, 59 starts) and limited somewhat by injuries to both, as well as to Chris Taylor (20 games, 13 starts), the group — including Lux — hasn’t fared badly, ranking ninth among all 30 teams in both WAR (2.9, led by Muncy’s 1.7 in that capacity) and wRC+ (104). But Lux’s torrid minor league season (.347/.421/.607 with 26 homers), his draft pedigree, and his prospect status (number nine on The Board, up from number 23 in February) earned him this shot, and Roberts has liked what he’s seen. “I see composure,” said the manager of the 21-old rookie prior to Saturday’s game. “There’s a confidence. It’s a really good skill set. I see him starting tomorrow against [Zack] Wheeler. And if he continues to play well, the at-bats will be there.” Read the rest of this entry »


Spencer Turnbull Has a Sneaky Fastball

It was never going to be a fun year to be a Detroit Tigers fan. The hundred losses could tell you that, or the fact that the team’s lone All-Star was reliever Shane Greene, who now plays for the Braves. The joy in Tigers fandom was concentrated in the minors this year; in top prospect Casey Mize’s polish, in Matt Manning’s production, in Isaac Paredes showing he was ready for Double-A.

But the major league team wasn’t without its bright spots. Greene performed well enough to net two interesting prospects in a trade, Niko Goodrum scratched out a 2-WAR season, and Matthew Boyd had a first half so nice that the Tigers asked for the world in trade (they didn’t get it). In addition to those major leaguers taking a step forward, there’s one other Tigers performance to get excited about: Spencer Turnbull has quietly been an above-average pitcher in his rookie season.

There were signs that Turnbull could hack it in the major leagues before this year, but nothing decisive. He used his sinker/slider starter kit well in Double-A in 2018, racking up a 25% strikeout rate and 3.16 FIP over 100 innings of work. That sounds excellent, but the hidden downside of performing well in Double-A is that you’re pitching in Double-A rather than the big leagues. Turnbull was 25 then, older than the average age for the league and way past when most top prospects move on.

Still, good pitching is good pitching, and the Tigers were desperate for whatever they could get. After a single dominant outing in Triple-A, where he struck out 7 of the 13 batters he faced, Turnbull was summoned back to the major leagues, where he had had a brief previous cameo as a September call-up. Read the rest of this entry »